Essays on health care reform, wealth inequality, and demography

This thesis contains three chapters. The first chapter uses a general equilibrium framework to simulate and compare the long run effects of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA) and of health care costs reduction policies on macroeconomic variables, government budget, and welfare of individuals. We found that all policies were able to reduce uninsured population, with the PPACA being more effective than cost reductions. The PPACA increased public deficit mainly due to the Medicaid expansion, forcing tax hikes. On the other hand, cost reductions alleviated the fiscal burden of public insurance, reducing public deficit and taxes. Regarding welfare effects, the PPACA as a whole and cost reductions are welfare improving. High welfare gains would be achieved if the U.S. medical costs followed the same trend of OECD countries. Besides, feasible cost reductions are more welfare improving than most of the PPACA components, proving to be a good alternative. The second chapter documents that life cycle general equilibrium models with heterogeneous agents have a very hard time reproducing the American wealth distribution. A common assumption made in this literature is that all young adults enter the economy with no initial assets. In this chapter, we relax this assumption – not supported by the data – and evaluate the ability of an otherwise standard life cycle model to account for the U.S. wealth inequality. The new feature of the model is that agents enter the economy with assets drawn from an initial distribution of assets. We found that heterogeneity with respect to initial wealth is key for this class of models to replicate the data. According to our results, American inequality can be explained almost entirely by the fact that some individuals are lucky enough to be born into wealth, while others are born with few or no assets. The third chapter documents that a common assumption adopted in life cycle general equilibrium models is that the population is stable at steady state, that is, its relative age distribution becomes constant over time. An open question is whether the demographic assumptions commonly adopted in these models in fact imply that the population becomes stable. In this chapter we prove the existence of a stable population in a demographic environment where both the age-specific mortality rates and the population growth rate are constant over time, the setup commonly adopted in life cycle general equilibrium models. Hence, the stability of the population do not need to be taken as assumption in these models.

Care arrangements for people with dementia in developing countries

Background: Rapid demographic ageing will soon lead to large increases in the numbers of persons with dementia in developing countries. This study is the first comprehensive assessment of care arrangements for people with dementia in those regions. Methods: A descriptive and comparative study of dementia care; caregiver characteristics, the nature of care provided, and the practical, psychological (Zarit Burden Interview, General Health Questionnaire) and economic impact upon the caregiver in 24 centres in India, China and South East Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean and Africa. Results: We interviewed 706 persons with dementia, and their caregivers. Most caregivers were women, living with the person with dementia in extended family households. One-quarter to one-half of households included a child. Larger households were associated with lower caregiver strain, where the caregiver was co-resident. However, despite the traditional apparatus of family care, levels of caregiver strain were at least as high as in the developed world. Many had cutback on work to care and faced the additional expense of paid carers and health services. Families from the poorest countries were particularly likely to have used expensive private medical services, and to be spending more than 10% of the per capita GNP on health care. Conclusions: Older people in developing countries are indivisible from their younger family members. The high levels of family strain identified in this study feed into the cycle of disadvantage and should thus be a concern for policymakers in the developing world. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Adequacy of antenatal care and its relationship with low birth weight in Botucatu, Sao Paulo, Brazil: a case-control study

Background: Birth weight reflects gestational conditions and development during the fetal period. Low birth weight (LBW) may be associated with antenatal care (ANC) adequacy and quality. The purpose of this study was to analyze ANC adequacy and its relationship with LBW in the Unified Health System in Brazil.Methods: A case-control study was conducted in Botucatu, Sao Paulo, Brazil, 2004 to 2008. Data were collected from secondary sources (the Live Birth Certificate), and primary sources (the official medical records of pregnant women). The study population consisted of two groups, each with 860 newborns. The case group comprised newborns weighing less than 2,500 grams, while the control group comprised live newborns weighing greater than or equal to 2,500 grams. Adequacy of ANC was evaluated according to three measurements: 1. Adequacy of the number of ANC visits adjusted to gestational age; 2. Modified Kessner Index; and 3. Adequacy of ANC laboratory studies and exams summary measure according to parameters defined by the Ministry of Health in the Program for Prenatal and Birth Care Humanization.Results: Analyses revealed that LBW was associated with the number of ANC visits adjusted to gestational age (OR = 1.78, 95% CI 1.32-2.34) and the ANC laboratory studies and exams summary measure (OR = 4.13, 95% CI 1.36-12.51). According to the modified Kessner Index, 64.4% of antenatal visits in the LBW group were adequate, with no differences between groups.Conclusions: Our data corroborate the association between inadequate number of ANC visits, laboratory studies and exams, and increased risk of LBW newborns. No association was found between the modified Kessner Index as a measure of adequacy of ANC and LBW. This finding reveals the low indices of coverage for basic actions already well regulated in the Health System in Brazil. Despite the association found in the study, we cannot conclude that LBW would be prevented only by an adequate ANC, as LBW is associated with factors of complex and multifactorial etiology. The results could be used to plan monitoring measures and evaluate programs of health care assistance during pregnancy, at delivery and to newborns, focusing on reduced LBW rates.

The impact of physical activity on mitigation of health care costs related to diabetes mellitus: findings from developed and developing settings Diabetes mellitus and physical exercise

Over the last decades, the prevalence of diabetes mellitus (DM) has been increasing globally such that nowadays the disease constitutes an important outcome related to early mortality among adults. In parallel with the high prevalence, healthcare costs related to DM treatment have increased significantly, exacerbating its burden on modern society. The scientific literature points out that obesity and physical inactivity have a central role in the development of most DM cases. In fact, either physical exercise practice or an increase in the level of physical activity, constitute relevant tools in the guidelines for treatment of the disease. On the other hand, the effect of physical activity on the economic consequences of DM is not completely clear. The identification of the actual burden of lifestyle changes on the reduction of healthcare costs related to DM is relevant, primarily for developing nations, where it could represent a cheaper strategy for treating the disease and its complications than paying for drug treatment, which is commonly related to collateral effects. That being said, the prevention of DM and other diseases and consequently the mitigation of the costs related to these outcomes seem to depend essentially on the promotion of healthy habits. The aim of the present review was therefore to discuss recent evidence on the effects of physical activity/exercise on mitigation of health care cost related to DM.

Efficiency and costless of a long-term physical exercise program to nom-medicated hypertensive males

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Late entry into HIV care: lessons from Brazil, 2003 to 2006

Background: To ascertain the population rates and proportion of late entry into HIV care, as well as to determine whether such late entry correlates with individual and contextual factors. Methods: Data for the 2003-2006 period in Brazil were obtained from public health records. A case of late entry into HIV care was defined as one in which HIV infection was diagnosed at death, one in which HIV infection was diagnosed after the condition of the patient had already been aggravated by AIDS-related diseases, or one in which the CD4(+) T-cell count was <= 200 cells/mm(3) at the time of diagnosis. We also considered extended and stricter sets of criteria (in which the final criterion was <= 350 cells/mm(3) and <= 100 cells/mm(3), respectively). The estimated risk ratio was used in assessing the effects of correlates, and the population rates (per 100,000 population) were calculated on an annual basis. Results: Records of 115,369 HIV-infected adults were retrieved, and 43.6% (50,358) met the standard criteria for late entry into care. Diagnosis at death accounted for 29% (14,457) of these cases. Late entry into HIV care (standard criterion) was associated with certain individual factors (sex, age, and transmission category) and contextual factors (region with less economic development/increasing incidence of AIDS, lower local HIV testing rate, and smaller municipal population). Use of the extended criteria increased the proportion of late entry by 34% but did not substantially alter the correlations analyzed. The overall population rate of late entry was 9.9/100,000 population, specific rates being highest for individuals in the 30-59 year age bracket, for men, and for individuals living in regions with greater economic development/higher HIV testing rates, collectively accounting for more than half of the cases observed. Conclusions: Although the high proportion of late entry might contribute to spreading the AIDS epidemic in less developed regions, most cases occurred in large cities, with broader availability of HIV testing, and in economically developed regions.

Cost-effectiveness of introducing the 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine into the universal immunisation of infants in Brazil

Background Cost-effectiveness studies have been increasingly part of decision processes for incorporating new vaccines into the Brazilian National Immunisation Program. This study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) in the universal childhood immunisation programme in Brazil. Methods A decision-tree analytical model based on the ProVac Initiative pneumococcus model was used, following 25 successive cohorts from birth until 5 years of age. Two strategies were compared: (1) status quo and (2) universal childhood immunisation programme with PCV10. Epidemiological and cost estimates for pneumococcal disease were based on National Health Information Systems and literature. A 'top-down' costing approach was employed. Costs are reported in 2004 Brazilian reals. Costs and benefits were discounted at 3%. Results 25 years after implementing the PCV10 immunisation programme, 10 226 deaths, 360 657 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), 433 808 hospitalisations and 5 117 109 outpatient visits would be avoided. The cost of the immunisation programme would be R$10 674 478 765, and the expected savings on direct medical costs and family costs would be R$1 036 958 639 and R$209 919 404, respectively. This resulted in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of R$778 145/death avoided and R$22 066/DALY avoided from the society perspective. Conclusion The PCV10 universal infant immunisation programme is a cost-effective intervention (1-3 GDP per capita/DALY avoided). Owing to the uncertain burden of disease data, as well as unclear long-term vaccine effects, surveillance systems to monitor the long-term effects of this programme will be essential.

The implementation of the Medical Regulation Office and Mobile Emergency Attendance System and its impact on the gravity profile of non-traumatic afflictions treated in a University Hospital: a research study

Abstract Background The public health system of Brazil is structured by a network of increasing complexity, but the low resolution of emergency care at pre-hospital units and the lack of organization of patient flow overloaded the hospitals, mainly the ones of higher complexity. The knowledge of this phenomenon induced Ribeirão Preto to implement the Medical Regulation Office and the Mobile Emergency Attendance System. The objective of this study was to analyze the impact of these services on the gravity profile of non-traumatic afflictions in a University Hospital. Methods The study conducted a retrospective analysis of the medical records of 906 patients older than 13 years of age who entered the Emergency Care Unit of the Hospital of the University of São Paulo School of Medicine at Ribeirão Preto. All presented acute non-traumatic afflictions and were admitted to the Internal Medicine, Surgery or Neurology Departments during two study periods: May 1996 (prior to) and May 2001 (after the implementation of the Medical Regulation Office and Mobile Emergency Attendance System). Demographics and mortality risk levels calculated by Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) were determined. Results From 1996 to 2001, the mean age increased from 49 ± 0.9 to 52 ± 0.9 (P = 0.021), as did the percentage of co-morbidities, from 66.6 to 77.0 (P = 0.0001), the number of in-hospital complications from 260 to 284 (P = 0.0001), the mean calculated APACHE II mortality risk increased from 12.0 ± 0.5 to 14.8 ± 0.6 (P = 0.0008) and mortality rate from 6.1 to 12.2 (P = 0.002). The differences were more significant for patients admitted to the Internal Medicine Department. Conclusion The implementation of the Medical Regulation and Mobile Emergency Attendance System contributed to directing patients with higher gravity scores to the Emergency Care Unit, demonstrating the potential of these services for hierarchical structuring of pre-hospital networks and referrals.

Quantifying the Economics of Medical Malpractice - A View from a Civil Law Perspective

Life is full of uncertainties. Legal rules should have a clear intention, motivation and purpose in order to diminish daily uncertainties. However, practice shows that their consequences are complex and hard to predict. For instance, tort law has the general objectives of deterring future negligent behavior and compensating the victims of someone else's negligence. Achieving these goals are particularly difficult in medical malpractice cases. To start with, when patients search for medical care they are typically sick in the first place. In case harm materializes during the treatment, it might be very hard to assess if it was due to substandard medical care or to the patient's poor health conditions. Moreover, the practice of medicine has a positive externality on the society, meaning that the design of legal rules is crucial: for instance, it should not result in physicians avoiding practicing their activity just because they are afraid of being sued even when they acted according to the standard level of care. The empirical literature on medical malpractice has been developing substantially in the past two decades, with the American case being the most studied one. Evidence from civil law tradition countries is more difficult to find. The aim of this thesis is to contribute to the empirical literature on medical malpractice, using two civil law countries as a case-study: Spain and Italy. The goal of this thesis is to investigate, in the first place, some of the consequences of having two separate sub-systems (administrative and civil) coexisting within the same legal system, which is common in civil law tradition countries with a public national health system (such as Spain, France and Portugal). When this holds, different procedures might apply depending on the type of hospital where the injury took place (essentially whether it is a public hospital or a private hospital). Therefore, a patient injured in a public hospital should file a claim in administrative courts while a patient suffering an identical medical accident should file a claim in civil courts. A natural question that the reader might pose is why should both administrative and civil courts decide medical malpractice cases? Moreover, can this specialization of courts influence how judges decide medical malpractice cases? In the past few years, there was a general concern with patient safety, which is currently on the agenda of several national governments. Some initiatives have been taken at the international level, with the aim of preventing harm to patients during treatment and care. A negligently injured patient might present a claim against the health care provider with the aim of being compensated for the economic loss and for pain and suffering. In several European countries, health care is mainly provided by a public national health system, which means that if a patient harmed in a public hospital succeeds in a claim against the hospital, public expenditures increase because the State takes part in the litigation process. This poses a problem in a context of increasing national health expenditures and public debt. In Italy, with the aim of increasing patient safety, some regions implemented a monitoring system on medical malpractice claims. However, if properly implemented, this reform shall also allow for a reduction in medical malpractice insurance costs. This thesis is organized as follows. Chapter 1 provides a review of the empirical literature on medical malpractice, where studies on outcomes and merit of claims, costs and defensive medicine are presented. Chapter 2 presents an empirical analysis of medical malpractice claims arriving to the Spanish Supreme Court. The focus is on reversal rates for civil and administrative decisions. Administrative decisions appealed by the plaintiff have the highest reversal rates. The results show a bias in lower administrative courts, which tend to focus on the State side. We provide a detailed explanation for these results, which can rely on the organization of administrative judges career. Chapter 3 assesses predictors of compensation in medical malpractice cases appealed to the Spanish Supreme Court and investigates the amount of damages attributed to patients. The results show horizontal equity between administrative and civil decisions (controlling for observable case characteristics) and vertical inequity (patients suffering more severe injuries tend to receive higher payouts). In order to execute these analyses, a database of medical malpractice decisions appealed to the Administrative and Civil Chambers of the Spanish Supreme Court from 2006 until 2009 (designated by the Spanish Supreme Court Medical Malpractice Dataset (SSCMMD)) has been created. A description of how the SSCMMD was built and of the Spanish legal system is presented as well. Chapter 4 includes an empirical investigation of the effect of a monitoring system for medical malpractice claims on insurance premiums. In Italy, some regions adopted this policy in different years, while others did not. The study uses data on insurance premiums from Italian public hospitals for the years 2001-2008. This is a significant difference as most of the studies use the insurance company as unit of analysis. Although insurance premiums have risen from 2001 to 2008, the increase was lower for regions adopting a monitoring system for medical claims. Possible implications of this system are also provided. Finally, Chapter 5 discusses the main findings, describes possible future research and concludes.

Prevention, diagnosis, therapy and follow-up care of sepsis: 1st revision of S-2k guidelines of the German Sepsis Society (Deutsche Sepsis-Gesellschaft e.V. (DSG)) and the German Interdisciplinary Association of Intensive Care and Emergency Medicine (Deutsche Interdisziplinäre Vereinigung für Intensiv- und Notfallmedizin (DIVI))

Practice guidelines are systematically developed statements and recommendations that assist the physicians and patients in making decisions about appropriate health care measures for specific clinical circumstances taking into account specific national health care structures. The 1(st) revision of the S-2k guideline of the German Sepsis Society in collaboration with 17 German medical scientific societies and one self-help group provides state-of-the-art information (results of controlled clinical trials and expert knowledge) on the effective and appropriate medical care (prevention, diagnosis, therapy and follow-up care) of critically ill patients with severe sepsis or septic shock. The guideline had been developed according to the "German Instrument for Methodological Guideline Appraisal" of the Association of the Scientific Medical Societies (AWMF). In view of the inevitable advancements in scientific knowledge and technical expertise, revisions, updates and amendments must be periodically initiated. The guideline recommendations may not be applied under all circumstances. It rests with the clinician to decide whether a certain recommendation should be adopted or not, taking into consideration the unique set of clinical facts presented in connection with each individual patient as well as the available resources.

Tackling of unhealthy diets, physical inactivity, and obesity: health effects and cost-effectiveness

The obesity epidemic is spreading to low-income and middle-income countries as a result of new dietary habits and sedentary ways of life, fuelling chronic diseases and premature mortality. In this report we present an assessment of public health strategies designed to tackle behavioural risk factors for chronic diseases that are closely linked with obesity, including aspects of diet and physical inactivity, in Brazil, China, India, Mexico, Russia, and South Africa. England was included for comparative purposes. Several population-based prevention policies can be expected to generate substantial health gains while entirely or largely paying for themselves through future reductions of health-care expenditures. These strategies include health information and communication strategies that improve population awareness about the benefits of healthy eating and physical activity; fiscal measures that increase the price of unhealthy food content or reduce the cost of healthy foods rich in fibre; and regulatory measures that improve nutritional information or restrict the marketing of unhealthy foods to children. A package of measures for the prevention of chronic diseases would deliver substantial health gains, with a very favourable cost-effectiveness profile.

Frequency of and predictors for patient-reported medical and medication errors in Switzerland

OBJECTIVES: To analyse the frequency of and identify risk factors for patient-reported medical errors in Switzerland. The joint effect of risk factors on error-reporting probability was modelled for hypothetical patients. METHODS: A representative population sample of Swiss citizens (n = 1306) was surveyed as part of the Commonwealth Fund’s 2010 lnternational Survey of the General Public’s Views of their Health Care System’s Performance in Eleven Countries. Data on personal background, utilisation of health care, coordination of care problems and reported errors were assessed. Logistic regression analysis was conducted to identify risk factors for patients’ reports of medical mistakes and medication errors. RESULTS: 11.4% of participants reported at least one error in their care in the previous two years (8% medical errors, 5.3% medication errors). Poor coordination of care experiences was frequent. 7.8% experienced that test results or medical records were not available, 17.2% received conflicting information from care providers and 11.5% reported that tests were ordered although they had been done before. Age (OR = 0.98, p = 0.014), poor health (OR = 2.95, p = 0.007), utilisation of emergency care (OR = 2.45, p = 0.003), inpatient-stay (OR = 2.31, p = 0.010) and poor care coordination (OR = 5.43, p <0.001) are important predictors for reporting error. For high utilisers of care that unify multiple risk factors the probability that errors are reported rises up to p = 0.8. CONCLUSIONS: Patient safety remains a major challenge for the Swiss health care system. Despite the health related and economic burden associated with it, the widespread experience of medical error in some subpopulations also has the potential to erode trust in the health care system as a whole.

Temporomandibular disorders/myoarthropathy of the masticatory system. Costs of dental treatment and reimbursement by Swiss federal insurance agencies according to the Health Care Benefits Ordinance (KLV)

The goal of the study was to calculate the direct costs of therapy for patients with MAP. This retrospective study included 242 MAP patients treated at the Department of Prosthodontics of the University of Bern between 2003 and 2006. The following parameters were collected from the clinical charts: chief complaint, diagnosis, treatment modalities, total costs, costs of the dental technician, number of appointments, average cost per appointment, length of treatment, and services reimbursed by health insurance agencies. The average age of the patients was 40.4 ± 17.3 years (76.4% women, 23.6% men). The chief complaint was pain in 91.3% of the cases, TMJ noises (61.2%) or limitation of mandibular mobility (53.3%). Tendomyopathy (22.3%), disc displacement (22.4%), or a combination of the two (37.6%) were more often diagnosed than arthropathy alone (7.4%). Furthermore, 10.3% of the MAP patients had another primary diagnosis (tumor, trauma, etc.). Patients were treated with counseling and exercises (36.0%), physiotherapy (23.6%), or occlusal splints (32.6%). The cost of treatment reached 644 Swiss francs for four appointments spread over an average of 21 weeks. In the great majority of cases, patients can be treated with inexpensive modalities. 99.9% of the MAP cases submitted to the insurance agencies were reimbursed by them, in accordance with Article 17d1-3 of the Swiss Health Care Benefits Ordinance (KLV) and Article 25 of the Federal Health Insurance Act (KVG). The costs of treatment performed by dentists remain modest. The more time-consuming services, such as providing information, counseling and instructions, are poorly remunerated. This aspect should be re-evaluated in a future revision of the tariff schedule.

Accuracy of prehospital diagnosis and triage of a Swiss helicopter emergency medical service

Helicopter emergency medical services (HEMSs) have become a standard element of modern prehospital emergency medicine. This study determines the percentage of injured HEMS patients whose injuries were correctly recognized by HEMS physicians.

Physicians' philosophy of care: a comparison of complementary and conventional medicine

BACKGROUND: This project is part of an evaluation of complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) aimed at providing a scientific basis for the Swiss Government to include 5 CAM methods in basic health coverage: anthroposophic medicine, homeopathy, neural therapy, phytotherapy and Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM). OBJECTIVES: The objective was to explore the philosophy of care (convictions and values, priorities in medical activity, motivation for CAM, criteria for the practice of CAM, limits of the used methods) of conventional and CAM general practitioners (GPs) and to determine differences between both groups. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This study was a cross-sectional survey of a representative sample of 623 GPs who provide complementary or conventional primary care. A mailed questionnaire with open-ended questions focusing on the philosophy of care was used for data collection. An appropriate methodology using a combination of quantitative and qualitative approaches was developed. RESULTS: Significant differences between both groups include philosophy of care (holistic versus positivistic approaches), motivation for CAM (intrinsic versus extrinsic) and priorities in medical activity. Both groups seem to be aware of limitations of the therapeutic methods used. The study reveals that conventional physicians are also using complementary medicine. DISCUSSION: Our study provides a wealth of data documenting several aspects of physicians' philosophy of care as well as differences and similarities between conventional and complementary care. Implications of the study with regard to quality of care as well as ethical and health policy issues should be investigated further.