Metabolomic assays of amoxicillin, cephapirin and ceftiofur in chicken muscle. Application to treated chicken samples by liquid chromatography quadrupole time-of-flight mass spectrometry

The aim of this study was to identity metabolites and transformation products (TPs) in chicken muscle from amoxicillin (AMX), cephapirin (PIR) and ceftiofur (TIO), which are antibiotics of the β-lactam family. Liquid chromatography coupled to quadrupole time-of-flight (QqTOF) mass spectrometry was utilized due to its high resolution, high mass accuracy and MS/MS capacity for elemental composition determination and structural elucidation. Amoxicilloic acid (AMA) and amoxicillin diketopiperazine (DKP) were found as transformation products from AMX. Desacetylcephapirin (DAC) was detected as a metabolite of PIR. Desfuroylceftiofur (DFC) and its conjugated compound with cysteine (DFC-S-Cys) were detected as a result of TIO in contact with chicken muscle tissue. The metabolites and transformation products were also monitored during the in vivo AMX treatment and slaughtering period. It was found that two days were enough to eliminate AMX and associated metabolites/transformation products after the end of administration.

Agricultural land use and human presence around breeding sites increase stress-hormone levels and decrease body mass in barn owl nestlings.

Human activities can have a suite of positive and negative effects on animals and thus can affect various life history parameters. Human presence and agricultural practice can be perceived as stressors to which animals react with the secretion of glucocorticoids. The acute short-term secretion of glucocorticoids is considered beneficial and helps an animal to redirect energy and behaviour to cope with a critical situation. However, a long-term increase of glucocorticoids can impair e.g. growth and immune functions. We investigated how nestling barn owls (Tyto alba) are affected by the surrounding landscape and by human activities around their nest sites. We studied these effects on two response levels: (a) the physiological level of the hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenal axis, represented by baseline concentrations of corticosterone and the concentration attained by a standardized stressor; (b) fitness parameters: growth of the nestlings and breeding performance. Nestlings growing up in intensively cultivated areas showed increased baseline corticosterone levels late in the season and had an increased corticosterone release after a stressful event, while their body mass was decreased. Nestlings experiencing frequent anthropogenic disturbance had elevated baseline corticosterone levels, an increased corticosterone stress response and a lower body mass. Finally, breeding performance was better in structurally more diverse landscapes. In conclusion, anthropogenic disturbance affects offspring quality rather than quantity, whereas agricultural practices affect both life history traits.

The 16p11.2 rearrangments genetic paradigms for obesity and neurodevelopmental disorders.

Recent discoveries of recurrent and reciprocal Copy Number Variants (CNVs) using genome- wide studies have led to a new understanding of the etiology of neuropsychiatric disorders. CNVs represent loss (deletion) or gain (duplication) of genomic material. This thesis work is focused on CNVs at the 16p11.2 BP4-BP5 locus, which are among the most frequent etiologies of neurodevelopmental disorders and have been associated with Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASD), schizophrenia, cognitive impairment, alterations of brain size as well as obesity and underweight. Because deletion and duplication of the 16p11.2 locus occur frequently and recurrently (with the same breakpoints), CNVs at this locus represent a powerful paradigm to understand how a genomic region may modulate cognitive and behavioral traits as well as the relationship and shared mechanisms between distinct psychiatric diagnoses such as ASD and schizophrenia. The present dissertation includes three studies: 1) The first project aims at identifying structural brain-imaging endophenotypes in 16p11.2 CNVs carriers at risk for ASD and schizophrenia. The results show that gene dosage at the 16p11.2 locus modulates global brain volumes and neural circuitry, including the reward system, language and social cognition circuits. 2) The second investigates the neuropsychological profile in 16p11.2 deletion and duplication carriers. While deletion carriers show specific deficits in language and inhibition, the profile of duplication carriers is devoid of specific weaknesses and presents enhanced performance in a verbal memory task. 3) The third study on food-related behaviors in 16p11.2 deletion and duplication carriers shows that alterations of the reponse to satiety are present in CNV carriers before the onset of obesity, pointing toward a potential mechanism driving the Body Mass Index increase in deletion carriers. Dysfunctions in the reward system and dopaminergic circuitries could represent a common mechanism playing a role in the phenotype and could be investigated in future studies. Our data strongly suggest that complex cognitive traits correlate to gene dosage in humans. Larger studies including expression data would allow elucidating the contribution of specific genes to these different gene dosage effects. In conclusion, a systematic and careful investigation of cognitive, behavioral and intermediate phenotypes using a gene dosage paradigm has allowed us to advance our understanding of the 16p11.2 BP4-BP5 locus and its effects on neurodevelopment. -- La récente découverte de variations du nombre de copies (CNVs pour 'copy number variants') dans le génome humain a amélioré nos connaissances sur l'étiologie des troubles neuropsychiatriques. Un CNV représente une perte (délétion) ou un gain (duplication) de matériel génétique sur un segment chromosomique. Ce travail de thèse est focalisé sur les CNVs réciproques (délétion et duplication) dans la région 16p11.2 BP4-BP5. Ces CNVs sont une cause fréquente de troubles neurodéveloppementaux et ont été associés à des phénotypes « en miroir » tels que obésité/sous-poids ou macro/microcéphalie mais aussi aux troubles du spectre autistique (TSA), à la schizophrénie et au retard de développement/déficience intellectuelle. La fréquence et la récurrence de la délétion et de la duplication aux mêmes points de cassure font de ces CNVs un paradigme unique pour étudier la relation entre dosage génique et les traits cognitifs et comportementaux, ainsi que les mécanismes partagés par des troubles psychiatriques apparemment distincts tels que les TSA et la schizophrénie. Ce travail de thèse comporte trois études distinctes : 1) l'étude en neuroimagerie structurelle identifie les endophénotypes chez les porteurs de la délétion ou de la duplication. Les résultats montrent une influence du dosage génique sur le volume cérébral total et certaines structures dans les systèmes de récompense, du langage et de la cognition sociale. 2) L'étude des profils neuropsychologiques chez les porteurs de la délétion ou de la duplication montre que la délétion est associée à des troubles spécifiques du langage et de l'inhibition alors que les porteurs de la duplication ne montrent pas de faiblesse spécifique mais des performances mnésiques verbales supérieures à leur niveau cognitif global. 3) L'étude sur les comportements alimentaires met en évidence une altération de la réponse à la satiété qui est présente avant l'apparition de l'obésité. Un dysfonctionnement dans le système de récompense et les circuits dopaminergiques pourrait représenter un mécanisme commun aux différents phénotypes observés chez ces individus porteurs de CNVs au locus 16p11.2. En conclusion, l'utilisation du dosage génique comme outil d'investigation des phénotypes cliniques et endophénotypes nous a permis de mieux comprendre le rôle de la région 16p11.2 BP4-BP5 dans le neurodéveloppement.

Blood monitoring of perfluorocarbon compounds (F-tert-butylcyclohexane, perfluoromethyldecalin and perfluorodecalin) by headspace-gas chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry.

A headspace-gas chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (HS-GC-MS/MS) method for the trace measurement of perfluorocarbon compounds (PFCs) in blood was developed. Due to oxygen carrying capabilities of PFCs, application to doping and sports misuse is speculated. This study was therefore extended to perform validation methods for F-tert-butylcyclohexane (Oxycyte(®)), perfluoro(methyldecalin) (PFMD) and perfluorodecalin (PFD). The limit of detection of these compounds was established and found to be 1.2µg/mL blood for F-tert-butylcyclohexane, 4.9µg/mL blood for PFMD and 9.6µg/mL blood for PFD. The limit of quantification was assumed to be 12µg/mL blood (F-tert-butylcyclohexane), 48µg/mL blood (PFMD) and 96µg/mL blood (PFD). HS-GC-MS/MS technique allows detection from 1000 to 10,000 times lower than the estimated required dose to ensure a biological effect for the investigated PFCs. Thus, this technique could be used to identify a PFC misuse several hours, maybe days, after the injection or the sporting event. Clinical trials with those compounds are still required to evaluate the validation parameters with the calculated estimations.

Influence of MCHR2 and MCHR2-AS1 Genetic Polymorphisms on Body Mass Index in Psychiatric Patients and In Population-Based Subjects with Present or Past Atypical Depression.

Obesity development during psychotropic treatments represents a major health issue in psychiatry. Melanin-concentrating hormone receptor 2 (MCHR2) is a central receptor involved in energy homeostasis. MCHR2 shares its promoter region with MCHR2-AS1, a long antisense non-coding RNA. The aim of this study was to determine whether tagging single nucleotide polymorphisms (tSNPs) of MCHR2 and MCHR2-AS1 are associated with the body mass index (BMI) in the psychiatric and in the general population. The influence of MCHR2 and MCHR2-AS1 tSNPs on BMI was firstly investigated in a discovery psychiatric sample (n1 = 474). Positive results were tested for replication in two other psychiatric samples (n2 = 164, n3 = 178) and in two population-based samples (CoLaus, n4 = 5409; GIANT, n5 = 113809). In the discovery sample, TT carriers of rs7754794C>T had 1.08 kg/m2 (p = 0.04) lower BMI as compared to C-allele carriers. This observation was replicated in an independent psychiatric sample (-2.18 kg/m2; p = 0.009). The association of rs7754794C>T and BMI seemed stronger in subjects younger than 45 years (median of age). In the population-based sample, a moderate association was observed (-0.17 kg/m2; p = 0.02) among younger individuals (<45y). Interestingly, this association was totally driven by patients meeting lifetime criteria for atypical depression, i.e. major depressive episodes characterized by symptoms such as an increased appetite. Indeed, patients with atypical depression carrying rs7754794-TT had 1.17 kg/m2 (p = 0.04) lower BMI values as compared to C-allele carriers, the effect being stronger in younger individuals (-2.50 kg/m2; p = 0.03; interaction between rs7754794 and age: p-value = 0.08). This study provides new insights on the possible influence of MCHR2 and/or MCHR2-AS1 on obesity in psychiatric patients and on the pathophysiology of atypical depression.

Development of an enantioselective assay for simultaneous separation of venlafaxine and O-desmethylvenlafaxine by micellar electrokinetic chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry: Application to the analysis of drug-drug interaction.

To-date, there has been no effective chiral capillary electrophoresis-mass spectrometry (CE-MS) method reported for the simultaneous enantioseparation of the antidepressant drug, venlafaxine (VX) and its structurally-similar major metabolite, O-desmethylvenlafaxine (O-DVX). This is mainly due to the difficulty of identifying MS compatible chiral selector, which could provide both high enantioselectivity and sensitive MS detection. In this work, poly-sodium N-undecenoyl-L,L-leucylalaninate (poly-L,L-SULA) was employed as a chiral selector after screening several dipeptide polymeric chiral surfactants. Baseline separation of both O-DVX and VX enantiomers was achieved in 15min after optimizing the buffer pH, poly-L,L-SULA concentration, nebulizer pressure and separation voltage. Calibration curves in spiked plasma (recoveries higher than 80%) were linear over the concentration range 150-5000ng/mL for both VX and O-DVX. The limit of detection (LOD) was found to be as low as 30ng/mL and 21ng/mL for O-DVX and VX, respectively. This method was successfully applied to measure the plasma concentrations of human volunteers receiving VX or O-DVX orally when co-administered without and with indinivar therapy. The results suggest that micellar electrokinetic chromatography electrospray ionization-tandem mass spectrometry (MEKC-ESI-MS/MS) is an effective low cost alternative technique for the pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics studies of both O-DVX and VX enantiomers. The technique has potential to identify drug-drug interaction involving VX and O-DVX enantiomers while administering indinivar therapy.

High mass microquasars and low latitude gamma-ray sources

Population studies of unidentified EGRET sources suggest that there exist at least three different populations of galactic gamma-ray sources. One of these populations is formed by young objects distributed along the galactic plane with a strong concentration toward the inner spiral arms of the Galaxy. Variability, spectral and correlation analysis indicate that this population is not homogeneous. In particular, there is a subgroup of sources that display clear variability in their gamma-ray fluxes on timescales from days to months. Following the proposal by Kaufman Bernad\'o et al. (2002), we suggest that this group of sources might be high-mass microquasars, i.e. accreting black holes or neutron stars with relativistic jets and early-type stellar companions. We present detailed inhomogeneous models for the gamma-ray emission of these systems that include both external and synchrotron self-Compton interactions. We have included effects of interactions between the jet and all external photon fields to which it is exposed: companion star, accretion disk, and hot corona. We make broadband calculations to predict the spectral energy distribution of these objects from radio up to GeV energies. The results and predictions can be tested by present and future gamma-ray instruments like INTEGRAL, AGILE, and GLAST.

Detecting patterns of species diversification in the presence of both rate shifts and mass extinctions.

BACKGROUND: Recent methodological advances allow better examination of speciation and extinction processes and patterns. A major open question is the origin of large discrepancies in species number between groups of the same age. Existing frameworks to model this diversity either focus on changes between lineages, neglecting global effects such as mass extinctions, or focus on changes over time which would affect all lineages. Yet it seems probable that both lineages differences and mass extinctions affect the same groups. RESULTS: Here we used simulations to test the performance of two widely used methods under complex scenarios of diversification. We report good performances, although with a tendency to over-predict events with increasing complexity of the scenario. CONCLUSION: Overall, we find that lineage shifts are better detected than mass extinctions. This work has significance to assess the methods currently used to estimate changes in diversification using phylogenetic trees. Our results also point toward the need to develop new models of diversification to expand our capabilities to analyse realistic and complex evolutionary scenarios.

What Role Does Sleep Play in Weight Gain in the First Semester of University?

We hypothesized that shorter sleep durations and greater variability in sleep patterns are associated with weight gain in the first semester of university. Students (N = 132) completed daily sleep diaries for 9 weeks, completed the MEQ (chronotype) and CES-D (depressed mood) at week 9, and self-reported weight/height (weeks 1 & 9). Mean and variability scores were calculated for sleep duration (TST, TSTv), bedtime (BT, BTv), and wake time (WT, WTv). An initial hierarchical regression evaluated (block 1) sex, ethnicity; (block 2) depressed mood, chronotype; (block 3) TST; (block 4) BT, WT; and (block 5; R(2) change = 0.09, p = 0.005) TSTv, BTv, WTv with weight change. A sex-by-TSTv interaction was found. A final model showed that ethnicity, TST, TSTv, and BTv accounted for 31% of the variance in weight change for males; TSTv was the most significant contributor (R(2) change = 0.21, p < 0.001). Daily variability in sleep duration contributes to males' weight gain. Further investigation needs to examine sex-specific outcomes for sleep and weight.

Etude de la composition initiale et du vieillissement des traces digitales: vers le développement d'une méthode de datation?

«Quel est l'âge de cette trace digitale?» Cette question est relativement souvent soulevée au tribunal ou lors d'investigations, lorsque la personne suspectée admet avoir laissé ses empreintes digitales sur une scène de crime mais prétend l'avoir fait à un autre moment que celui du crime et pour une raison innocente. Toutefois, aucune réponse ne peut actuellement être donnée à cette question, puisqu'aucune méthodologie n'est pour l'heure validée et acceptée par l'ensemble de la communauté forensique. Néanmoins, l'inventaire de cas américains conduit dans cette recherche a montré que les experts fournissent tout de même des témoignages au tribunal concernant l'âge de traces digitales, même si ceux-­‐ci sont majoritairement basés sur des paramètres subjectifs et mal documentés. Il a été relativement aisé d'accéder à des cas américains détaillés, ce qui explique le choix de l'exemple. Toutefois, la problématique de la datation des traces digitales est rencontrée dans le monde entier, et le manque de consensus actuel dans les réponses données souligne la nécessité d'effectuer des études sur le sujet. Le but de la présente recherche est donc d'évaluer la possibilité de développer une méthode de datation objective des traces digitales. Comme les questions entourant la mise au point d'une telle procédure ne sont pas nouvelles, différentes tentatives ont déjà été décrites dans la littérature. Cette recherche les a étudiées de manière critique, et souligne que la plupart des méthodologies reportées souffrent de limitations prévenant leur utilisation pratique. Néanmoins, certaines approches basées sur l'évolution dans le temps de composés intrinsèques aux résidus papillaires se sont montrées prometteuses. Ainsi, un recensement détaillé de la littérature a été conduit afin d'identifier les composés présents dans les traces digitales et les techniques analytiques capables de les détecter. Le choix a été fait de se concentrer sur les composés sébacés détectés par chromatographie gazeuse couplée à la spectrométrie de masse (GC/MS) ou par spectroscopie infrarouge à transformée de Fourier. Des analyses GC/MS ont été menées afin de caractériser la variabilité initiale de lipides cibles au sein des traces digitales d'un même donneur (intra-­‐variabilité) et entre les traces digitales de donneurs différents (inter-­‐variabilité). Ainsi, plusieurs molécules ont été identifiées et quantifiées pour la première fois dans les résidus papillaires. De plus, il a été déterminé que l'intra-­‐variabilité des résidus était significativement plus basse que l'inter-­‐variabilité, mais que ces deux types de variabilité pouvaient être réduits en utilisant différents pré-­‐ traitements statistiques s'inspirant du domaine du profilage de produits stupéfiants. Il a également été possible de proposer un modèle objectif de classification des donneurs permettant de les regrouper dans deux classes principales en se basant sur la composition initiale de leurs traces digitales. Ces classes correspondent à ce qui est actuellement appelé de manière relativement subjective des « bons » ou « mauvais » donneurs. Le potentiel d'un tel modèle est élevé dans le domaine de la recherche en traces digitales, puisqu'il permet de sélectionner des donneurs représentatifs selon les composés d'intérêt. En utilisant la GC/MS et la FTIR, une étude détaillée a été conduite sur les effets de différents facteurs d'influence sur la composition initiale et le vieillissement de molécules lipidiques au sein des traces digitales. Il a ainsi été déterminé que des modèles univariés et multivariés pouvaient être construits pour décrire le vieillissement des composés cibles (transformés en paramètres de vieillissement par pré-­‐traitement), mais que certains facteurs d'influence affectaient ces modèles plus sérieusement que d'autres. En effet, le donneur, le substrat et l'application de techniques de révélation semblent empêcher la construction de modèles reproductibles. Les autres facteurs testés (moment de déposition, pression, température et illumination) influencent également les résidus et leur vieillissement, mais des modèles combinant différentes valeurs de ces facteurs ont tout de même prouvé leur robustesse dans des situations bien définies. De plus, des traces digitales-­‐tests ont été analysées par GC/MS afin d'être datées en utilisant certains des modèles construits. Il s'est avéré que des estimations correctes étaient obtenues pour plus de 60 % des traces-­‐tests datées, et jusqu'à 100% lorsque les conditions de stockage étaient connues. Ces résultats sont intéressants mais il est impératif de conduire des recherches supplémentaires afin d'évaluer les possibilités d'application de ces modèles dans des cas réels. Dans une perspective plus fondamentale, une étude pilote a également été effectuée sur l'utilisation de la spectroscopie infrarouge combinée à l'imagerie chimique (FTIR-­‐CI) afin d'obtenir des informations quant à la composition et au vieillissement des traces digitales. Plus précisément, la capacité de cette technique à mettre en évidence le vieillissement et l'effet de certains facteurs d'influence sur de larges zones de traces digitales a été investiguée. Cette information a ensuite été comparée avec celle obtenue par les spectres FTIR simples. Il en a ainsi résulté que la FTIR-­‐CI était un outil puissant, mais que son utilisation dans l'étude des résidus papillaires à des buts forensiques avait des limites. En effet, dans cette recherche, cette technique n'a pas permis d'obtenir des informations supplémentaires par rapport aux spectres FTIR traditionnels et a également montré des désavantages majeurs, à savoir de longs temps d'analyse et de traitement, particulièrement lorsque de larges zones de traces digitales doivent être couvertes. Finalement, les résultats obtenus dans ce travail ont permis la proposition et discussion d'une approche pragmatique afin d'aborder les questions de datation des traces digitales. Cette approche permet ainsi d'identifier quel type d'information le scientifique serait capable d'apporter aux enquêteurs et/ou au tribunal à l'heure actuelle. De plus, le canevas proposé décrit également les différentes étapes itératives de développement qui devraient être suivies par la recherche afin de parvenir à la validation d'une méthodologie de datation des traces digitales objective, dont les capacités et limites sont connues et documentées. -- "How old is this fingermark?" This question is relatively often raised in trials when suspects admit that they have left their fingermarks on a crime scene but allege that the contact occurred at a time different to that of the crime and for legitimate reasons. However, no answer can be given to this question so far, because no fingermark dating methodology has been validated and accepted by the whole forensic community. Nevertheless, the review of past American cases highlighted that experts actually gave/give testimonies in courts about the age of fingermarks, even if mostly based on subjective and badly documented parameters. It was relatively easy to access fully described American cases, thus explaining the origin of the given examples. However, fingermark dating issues are encountered worldwide, and the lack of consensus among the given answers highlights the necessity to conduct research on the subject. The present work thus aims at studying the possibility to develop an objective fingermark dating method. As the questions surrounding the development of dating procedures are not new, different attempts were already described in the literature. This research proposes a critical review of these attempts and highlights that most of the reported methodologies still suffer from limitations preventing their use in actual practice. Nevertheless, some approaches based on the evolution of intrinsic compounds detected in fingermark residue over time appear to be promising. Thus, an exhaustive review of the literature was conducted in order to identify the compounds available in the fingermark residue and the analytical techniques capable of analysing them. It was chosen to concentrate on sebaceous compounds analysed using gas chromatography coupled with mass spectrometry (GC/MS) or Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR). GC/MS analyses were conducted in order to characterize the initial variability of target lipids among fresh fingermarks of the same donor (intra-­‐variability) and between fingermarks of different donors (inter-­‐variability). As a result, many molecules were identified and quantified for the first time in fingermark residue. Furthermore, it was determined that the intra-­‐variability of the fingermark residue was significantly lower than the inter-­‐variability, but that it was possible to reduce both kind of variability using different statistical pre-­‐ treatments inspired from the drug profiling area. It was also possible to propose an objective donor classification model allowing the grouping of donors in two main classes based on their initial lipid composition. These classes correspond to what is relatively subjectively called "good" or "bad" donors. The potential of such a model is high for the fingermark research field, as it allows the selection of representative donors based on compounds of interest. Using GC/MS and FTIR, an in-­‐depth study of the effects of different influence factors on the initial composition and aging of target lipid molecules found in fingermark residue was conducted. It was determined that univariate and multivariate models could be build to describe the aging of target compounds (transformed in aging parameters through pre-­‐ processing techniques), but that some influence factors were affecting these models more than others. In fact, the donor, the substrate and the application of enhancement techniques seemed to hinder the construction of reproducible models. The other tested factors (deposition moment, pressure, temperature and illumination) also affected the residue and their aging, but models combining different values of these factors still proved to be robust. Furthermore, test-­‐fingermarks were analysed with GC/MS in order to be dated using some of the generated models. It turned out that correct estimations were obtained for 60% of the dated test-­‐fingermarks and until 100% when the storage conditions were known. These results are interesting but further research should be conducted to evaluate if these models could be used in uncontrolled casework conditions. In a more fundamental perspective, a pilot study was also conducted on the use of infrared spectroscopy combined with chemical imaging in order to gain information about the fingermark composition and aging. More precisely, its ability to highlight influence factors and aging effects over large areas of fingermarks was investigated. This information was then compared with that given by individual FTIR spectra. It was concluded that while FTIR-­‐ CI is a powerful tool, its use to study natural fingermark residue for forensic purposes has to be carefully considered. In fact, in this study, this technique does not yield more information on residue distribution than traditional FTIR spectra and also suffers from major drawbacks, such as long analysis and processing time, particularly when large fingermark areas need to be covered. Finally, the results obtained in this research allowed the proposition and discussion of a formal and pragmatic framework to approach the fingermark dating questions. It allows identifying which type of information the scientist would be able to bring so far to investigators and/or Justice. Furthermore, this proposed framework also describes the different iterative development steps that the research should follow in order to achieve the validation of an objective fingermark dating methodology, whose capacities and limits are well known and properly documented.

Importance of early weight changes to predict long-term weight gain during psychotropic drug treatment.

BACKGROUND: Psychotropic drugs can induce substantial weight gain, particularly during the first 6 months of treatment. The authors aimed to determine the potential predictive power of an early weight gain after the introduction of weight gain-inducing psychotropic drugs on long-term weight gain. METHOD: Data were obtained from a 1-year longitudinal study ongoing since 2007 including 351 psychiatric (ICD-10) patients, with metabolic parameters monitored (baseline and/or 1, 3, 6, 9, 12 months) and with compliance ascertained. International Diabetes Federation and World Health Organization definitions were used to define metabolic syndrome and obesity, respectively. RESULTS: Prevalences of metabolic syndrome and obesity were 22% and 17%, respectively, at baseline and 32% and 24% after 1 year. Receiver operating characteristic analyses indicated that an early weight gain > 5% after a period of 1 month is the best predictor for important long-term weight gain (≥ 15% after 3 months: sensitivity, 67%; specificity, 88%; ≥ 20% after 12 months: sensitivity, 47%; specificity, 89%). This analysis identified most patients (97% for 3 months, 93% for 12 months) who had weight gain ≤ 5% after 1 month as continuing to have a moderate weight gain after 3 and 12 months. Its predictive power was confirmed by fitting a longitudinal multivariate model (difference between groups in 1 year of 6.4% weight increase as compared to baseline, P = .0001). CONCLUSION: Following prescription of weight gain-inducing psychotropic drugs, a 5% threshold for weight gain after 1 month should raise clinician concerns about weight-controlling strategies.