Economic aspects of post-border weed risk management

Aim: Decision-making in weed management involves consideration of limited budgets, long time horizons, conflicting priorities, and as a result, trade-offs. Economics provides tools that allow these issues to be addressed and is thus integral to management of the risks posed by weeds. One of the critical issues in weed risk management during the early stages of an invasion concerns feasibility of eradication. We briefly review how economics may be used in weed risk management, concentrating on this management strategy. Location: Australia. Methods: A range of innovative studies that investigate aspects of weed risk management are reviewed. We show how these could be applied to newly invading weeds, focussing on methods for investigating eradication feasibility. In particular, eradication feasibility is analysed in terms of cost and duration of an eradication programme, using a simulation model based on field-derived parameter values for chromolaena, Chromolaena odorata. Results: The duration of an eradication programme can be reduced by investing in progressively higher amounts of search effort per hectare, but increasing search area will become relatively more expensive as search effort increases. When variation in survey and control success is taken into account, increasing search effort also reduces uncertainty around the required duration of the eradication programme. Main conclusions: Economics is integral to the management of the risks posed by weeds. Decision analysis, based on economic principles, is now commonly used to tackle key issues that confront weed managers. For eradication feasibility, duration and cost of a weed eradication programme are critical components; the dimensions of both factors can usefully be estimated through simulation. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Potential Distribution and Risk Assessment of an Invasive Plant Species: A Case Study of Hymenachne amplexicaulis in Australia

Given the limited resources available for weed management, a strategic approach is required to give the best bang for your buck. The current study incorporates: (1) a model ensemble approach to identify areas of uncertainty and commonality regarding a species invasive potential, (2) current distribution of the invaded species, and (3) connectivity of systems to identify target regions and focus efforts for more effective management. Uncertainty in the prediction of suitable habitat for H. amplexicaulis (study species) in Australia was addressed in an ensemble-forecasting approach to compare distributional scenarios from four models (CLIMATCH; CLIMEX; boosted regression trees [BRT]; maximum entropy [Maxent]). Models were built using subsets of occurrence and environmental data. Catchment risk was determined through incorporating habitat suitability, the current abundance and distribution of H. amplexicaulis, and catchment connectivity. Our results indicate geographic differences between predictions of different approaches. Despite these differences a number of catchments in northern, central, and southern Australia were identified as high risk of invasion or further spread by all models suggesting they should be given priority for the management of H. amplexicaulis. The study also highlighted the utility of ensemble approaches in indentifying areas of uncertainty and commonality regarding the species invasive potential.

A participatory whole farm modelling approach to understand impacts and increase preparedness to climate change in Australia

This study presents the use of a whole farm model in a participatory modelling research approach to examine the sensitivity of four contrasting case study farms to a likely climate change scenario. The newly generated information was used to support discussions with the participating farmers in the search for options to design more profitable and sustainable farming systems in Queensland Australia. The four case studies contrasted in key systems characteristics: opportunism in decision making, i.e. flexible versus rigid crop rotations; function, i.e. production of livestock or crops; and level of intensification, i.e. dryland versus irrigated agriculture. Tested tactical and strategic changes under a baseline and climate change scenario (CCS) involved changes in the allocation of land between cropping and grazing enterprises, alternative allocations of limited irrigation water across cropping enterprises, and different management rules for planting wheat and sorghum in rainfed cropping. The results show that expected impacts from a likely climate change scenario were evident in the following increasing order: the irrigated cropping farm case study, the cropping and grazing farm, the more opportunistic rainfed cropping farm and the least opportunistic rainfed cropping farm. We concluded that in most cases the participating farmers were operating close to the efficiency frontier (i.e. in the relationship between profits and risks). This indicated that options to adapt to climate change might need to evolve from investments in the development of more innovative cropping and grazing systems and/or transformational changes on existing farming systems. We expect that even though assimilating expected changes in climate seems to be rather intangible and premature for these farmers, as innovations are developed, adaptation is likely to follow quickly. The multiple interactions among farm management components in complex and dynamic farm businesses operating in a variable and changing climate, make the use of whole farm participatory modelling approaches valuable tools to quantify benefits and trade-offs from alternative farming systems designs in the search for improved profitability and resilience.

Light thresholds derived from seagrass loss in the coastal zone of the northern Great Barrier Reef, Australia

There is a world-wide trend for deteriorating water quality and light levels in the coastal zone, and this has been linked to declines in seagrass abundance. Localized management of seagrass meadow health requires that water quality guidelines for meeting seagrass growth requirements are available. Tropical seagrass meadows are diverse and can be highly dynamic and we have used this dynamism to identify light thresholds in multi-specific meadows dominated by Halodule uninervis in the northern Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Seagrass cover was measured at similar to 3 month intervals from 2008 to 2011 at three sites: Magnetic Island (MI) Dunk Island (DI) and Green Island (GI). Photosynthetically active radiation was continuously measured within the seagrass canopy, and three light metrics were derived. Complete seagrass loss occurred at MI and DI and at these sites changes in seagrass cover were correlated with the three light metrics. Mean daily irradiance (I-d) above 5 and 8.4 mol m(-2) d(-1) was associated with gains in seagrass at MI and DI, however a significant correlation (R = 0.649, p < 0.05) only occurred at MI. The second metric, percent of days below 3 mol m(-2) d(-1), correlated the most strongly (MI, R = -0.714, p < 0.01 and DI, R = -0.859, p = <0.001) with change in seagrass cover with 16-18% of days below 3 mol m(-2) d(-1) being associated with more than 50% seagrass loss. The third metric, the number of hours of light saturated irradiance (H-sat) was calculated using literature-derived data on saturating irradiance (E-k). H-sat correlated well (R = 0.686, p <0.01; and DI, R = 0.704, p < 0.05) with change in seagrass abundance, and was very consistent between the two sites as 4 H-sat was associated with increases in seagrass abundance at both sites, and less than 4 H-sat with more than 50% loss. At the third site (GI), small seasonal losses of seagrass quickly recovered during the growth season and the light metrics did not correlate (p > 0.05) with change in percent cover, except for I-d which was always high, but correlated with change in seagrass cover. Although distinct light thresholds were observed, the departure from threshold values was also important. For example, light levels that are well below the thresholds resulted in more severe loss of seagrass than those just below the threshold. Environmental managers aiming to achieve optimal seagrass growth conditions can use these threshold light metrics as guidelines; however, other environmental conditions, including seasonally varying temperature and nutrient availability, will influence seagrass responses above and below these thresholds. (C) 2012 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Strong resistance to phosphine in the rusty grain beetle, Cryptolestes ferrugineus (Stephens) (Coleoptera: Laemophloeidae): its characterisation, a rapid assay for diagnosis and its distribution in Australia

BACKGROUND: The recent development of very high resistance to phosphine in rusty grain beetle, Cryptolestes ferrugineus (Stephens), seriously threatens stored-grain biosecurity. The aim was to characterise this resistance, to develop a rapid bioassay for its diagnosis to support pest management and to document the distribution of resistance in Australia in 20072011. RESULTS: Bioassays of purified laboratory reference strains and field-collected samples revealed three phenotypes: susceptible, weakly resistant and strongly resistant. With resistance factors of > 1000 x , resistance to phosphine expressed by the strong resistance phenotype was higher than reported for any stored-product insect species. The new time-to-knockdown assay rapidly and accurately diagnosed each resistance phenotype within 6 h. Although less frequent in western Australia, weak resistance was detected throughout all grain production regions. Strong resistance occurred predominantly in central storages in eastern Australia. CONCLUSION: Resistance to phosphine in the rusty grain beetle is expressed through two identifiable phenotypes: weak and strong. Strong resistance requires urgent changes to current fumigation dosages. The development of a rapid assay for diagnosis of resistance enables the provision of same-day advice to expedite resistance management decisions. (c) 2012 Commonwealth of Australia. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Linking spatial stock dynamics and economics: Evaluation of indicators and fishery management for the travelling eastern king prawn (Melicertus plebejus)

Reduced economic circumstances have moved management goals towards higher profit, rather than maximum sustainable yields in several Australian fisheries. The eastern king prawn is one such fishery, for which we have developed new methodology for stock dynamics, calculation of model-based and data-based reference points and management strategy evaluation. The fishery is notable for the northward movement of prawns in eastern Australian waters, from the State jurisdiction of New South Wales to that of Queensland, as they grow to spawning size, so that vessels fishing in the northern deeper waters harvest more large prawns. Bio-economic fishing data were standardized for calibrating a length-structured spatial operating model. Model simulations identified that reduced boat numbers and fishing effort could improve profitability while retaining viable fishing in each jurisdiction. Simulations also identified catch-rate levels that were effective for monitoring in simple within-year effort-control rules. However, favourable performance of catch-rate indicators was achieved only when a meaningful upper limit was placed on total allowed fishing effort. The methods and findings will allow improved measures for monitoring fisheries and inform decision makers on the uncertainty and assumptions affecting economic indicators.

Are high-impact species predictable? An analysis of naturalised grasses in northern Australia

Predicting which species are likely to cause serious impacts in the future is crucial for targeting management efforts, but the characteristics of such species remain largely unconfirmed. We use data and expert opinion on tropical and subtropical grasses naturalised in Australia since European settlement to identify naturalised and high-impact species and subsequently to test whether high-impact species are predictable. High-impact species for the three main affected sectors (environment, pastoral and agriculture) were determined by assessing evidence against pre-defined criteria. Twenty-one of the 155 naturalised species (14%) were classified as high-impact, including four that affected more than one sector. High-impact species were more likely to have faster spread rates (regions invaded per decade) and to be semi-aquatic. Spread rate was best explained by whether species had been actively spread (as pasture), and time since naturalisation, but may not be explanatory as it was tightly correlated with range size and incidence rate. Giving more weight to minimising the chance of overlooking high-impact species, a priority for biosecurity, meant a wider range of predictors was required to identify high-impact species, and the predictive power of the models was reduced. By-sector analysis of predictors of high impact species was limited by their relative rarity, but showed sector differences, including to the universal predictors (spread rate and habitat) and life history. Furthermore, species causing high impact to agriculture have changed in the past 10 years with changes in farming practice, highlighting the importance of context in determining impact. A rationale for invasion ecology is to improve the prediction and response to future threats. Although our study identifies some universal predictors, it suggests improved prediction will require a far greater emphasis on impact rather than invasiveness, and will need to account for the individual circumstances of affected sectors and the relative rarity of high-impact species.

Nitrogen leaching from the root zone of sugarcane and bananas in the humid tropics of Australia

Loss of nitrogen in deep drainage from agriculture is an important issue for environmental and economic reasons, but limited field data is available for tropical crops. In this study, nitrogen (N) loads leaving the root zone of two major humid tropical crops in Australia, sugarcane and bananas, were measured. The two field sites, 57 km apart, had a similar soil type (a well drained Dermosol) and rainfall (∼2700 mm year -1) but contrasting crops and management. A sugarcane crop in a commercial field received 136-148 kg N ha -1 year -1 applied in one application each year and was monitored for 3 years (first to third ratoon crops). N treatments of 0-600 kg ha -1 year -1 were applied to a plant and following ratoon crop of bananas. N was applied as urea throughout the growing season in irrigation water through mini-sprinklers. Low-suction lysimeters were installed at a depth of 1 m under both crops to monitor loads of N in deep drainage. Drainage at 1 m depth in the sugarcane crops was 22-37% of rainfall. Under bananas, drainage in the row was 65% of rainfall plus irrigation for the plant crop, and 37% for the ratoon. Nitrogen leaching loads were low under sugarcane (<1-9 kg ha -1 year -1) possibly reflecting the N fertiliser applications being reasonably matched to crop requirements and at least 26 days between fertiliser application and deep drainage. Under bananas, there were large loads of N in deep drainage when N application rates were in excess of plant demand, even when applied fortnightly. The deep drainage loss of N attributable to N fertiliser, calculated by subtracting the loss from unfertilised plots, was 246 and 641 kg ha -1 over 2 crop cycles, which was equivalent to 37 and 63% of the fertiliser application for treatments receiving 710 and 1065 kg ha -1, respectively. Those rates of fertiliser application resulted in soil acidification to a depth of 0.6 m by as much as 0.6 of a unit at 0.1-0.2 m depth. The higher leaching losses from bananas indicated that they should be a priority for improved N management. Crown Copyright © 2012.

Stock structure of the blue threadfin (Eleutheronema tetradactylum) across northern Australia derived from life-history characteristics

Life history characteristics were used to determine the stock structure of the polynemid Eleutheronema tetradactylum across northern Australia. Growth, estimated from back-calculated length-at-age from sagittal otoliths, and length at sex change were estimated from samples collected from 12 different locations across western, northern and eastern Australia between 2007 and 2009. Comparison of back-calculated length-at-age, growth and length at sex change between locations revealed significant variation in the life-history characteristics of E. tetradactylum across northern Australia, with significant differences detected in 43 of 45 location comparisons. Differences in otolith size relative to fish length also existed amongst locations. No differences in other morphometric relationships were detected. The results of this study provide evidence for a high degree of spatial population subdivision for E. tetradactylum across northern Australia, the finding of which has implications for E. tetradactylum fisheries throughout its range, and provides a biological basis for spatial management of the species in Australia. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantifying northward movement rates of eastern king prawns along eastern Australia

Movement rates of eastern king prawns, Melicertus plebejus (Hess), were estimated from historical and recent conventional tag-recapture information collected across eastern Australia. Data from three studies and 2,656 tag recaptures were used. Recaptured males and females both moved east-north-east in central Queensland and north-north-east in southern Queensland and New South Wales. Over a period of one year, the estimated transition matrix reflected the species strong northerly movement and the more complex longitudinal movement, showing a very high probability of eastern movement in central Queensland and almost negligible eastern or western movement in northern New South Wales. The high exchange probability between New South Wales and Queensland waters indicated that spatial assessment models with movement rates between state jurisdictions would improve the management of this single-unit stock.

Spatial and temporal effects of grazing management and rainfall on the vertebrate fauna of a tropical savanna

Grazing by domestic livestock is one of the most widespread uses of the rangelands of Australia. There is limited information on the effects of grazing by domestic livestock on the vertebrate fauna of Australia and the establishment of a long-term grazing experiment in north-eastern Queensland at Wambiana provided an opportunity to attempt an examination of the changes in vertebrate fauna as a consequence of the manipulation of stocking rates. The aim was to identify what the relative effects of vegetation type, stocking rate and other landscape-scale environmental factors were on the patterns recorded. Sixteen 1-ha sites were established within three replicated treatments (moderate, heavy and variable stocking rates). The sites were sampled in the wet and dry seasons in 1999-2000 (T-0) and again in 2003-04 (T-1). All paddocks of the treatments were burnt in 1999. Average annual rainfall declined markedly between the two sampling periods, which made interpretation of the data difficult. A total of 127 species of vertebrate fauna comprising five amphibian, 83 bird, 27 reptile and 12 mammal species were recorded. There was strong separation in faunal composition from T-0 to T-1 although changes in mean compositional dissimilarity between the grazing stocking rate treatments were less well defined. There was a relative change in abundance of 24 bird, four mammal and five reptile species from T-0 to T-1. The generalised linear modelling identified that, in the T-1 data, there was significant variation in the abundance of 16 species explained by the grazing and vegetation factors. This study demonstrated that vertebrate fauna assemblage did change and that these changes were attributable to the interplay between the stocking rates, the vegetation types on the sites surveyed, the burning of the experimental paddocks and the decrease in rainfall over the course of the two surveys. It is recommended that the experiment is sampled again but that the focus should be on a rapid survey of abundant taxa (i.e. birds and reptiles) to allow an increase in the frequency of sampling and replication of the data. This would help to articulate more clearly the trajectory of vertebrate change due to the relative effects of stocking rates compared with wider landscape environmental changes. Given the increasing focus on pastoral development in northern Australia, any opportunity to incorporate the collection of data on biodiversity into grazing manipulation experiments should be taken for the assessment of the effects of land management on faunal species.

Prediction of mortality and conception rates of beef breeding cattle in northern Australia

In current simulation packages for the management of extensive beef-cattle enterprises, the relationships for the key biological rates (namely conception and mortality) are quite rudimentary. To better estimate these relationships, cohort-level data covering 17 100 cow-years from six sites across northern Australia were collated and analysed. Further validation data, from 7200 cow-years, were then used to test these relationships. Analytical problems included incomplete and non-standardised data, considerable levels of correlation among the 'independent' variables, and the close similarity of alternate possible models. In addition to formal statistical analyses of these data, the theoretical equations for predicting mortality and conception rates in the current simulation models were reviewed, and then reparameterised and recalibrated where appropriate. The final models explained up to 80% of the variation in the data. These are now proposed as more accurate and useful models to be used in the prediction of biological rates in simulation studies for northern Australia. © The State of Queensland (through the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry) 2012. © CSIRO.

Estimating mineralisation of organic nitrogen from biosolids and other organic wastes applied to soils in subtropical Australia

One major benefit of land application of biosolids is to supply nitrogen (N) for agricultural crops, and understanding mineralisation processes is the key for better N-management strategies. Field studies were conducted to investigate the process of mineralisation of three biosolids products (aerobic, anaerobic, and thermally dried biosolids) incorporated into four different soils at rates of 7-90 wet t/ha in subtropical Queensland. Two of these studies also examined mineralisation rates of commonly used organic amendments (composts, manures, and sugarcane mill muds). Organic N in all biosolids products mineralised very rapidly under ambient conditions in subtropical Queensland, with rates much faster than from other common amendments. Biosolids mineralisation rates ranged from 30 to 80% of applied N during periods ranging from 3.5 to 18 months after biosolids application; these rates were much higher than those suggested in the biosolids land application guidelines established by the NSW EPA (15% for anaerobic and 25% for aerobic biosolids). There was no consistently significant difference in mineralisation rate between aerobic and anaerobic biosolids in our studies. When applied at similar rates of N addition, other organic amendments supplied much less N to the soil mineral N and plant N pools during the crop season. A significant proportion of the applied biosolids total N (up to 60%) was unaccounted for at the end of the observation period. High rates of N addition in calculated Nitrogen Limited Biosolids Application Rates (850-1250 kg N/ha) resulted in excessive accumulation of mineral N in the soil profile, which increases the environmental risks due to leaching, runoff, or gaseous N losses. Moreover, the rapid mineralisation of the biosolids organic N in these subtropical environments suggests that biosolids should be applied at lower rates than in temperate areas, and that care must be taken with the timing to maximise plant uptake and minimise possible leaching, runoff, or denitrification losses of mineralised N.

Biodegradation of 1080: Testing soils in south-eastern Australia for sodium fluoroacetate-degrading micro-organisms

Sodium fluoroacetate (1080) is a vertebrate poison commonly used for the control of vertebrate pests in Australia. Long-term environmental persistence of 1080 from baiting operations has likely nontarget species and environmental impacts and is a matter of public concern. Defluorinating micro-organisms have been detected in soils of Western and central Australia, and Queensland, but not in south-eastern Australia. The presence or absence of defluorinating micro-organisms in soils from south-eastern Australia will assist in determining whether long-term environmental persistence of 1080 is or is not occurring. Soils from the Central West Slopes and Plains and Central Tablelands of New South Wales were sampled to investigate the presence and capability of 1080 defluorinating soil micro-organisms. Thirty-one species of micro-organisms were isolated from soils from each site after 10 days incubation in a 20 mM 1080 solution. Of these, 13 isolates showed measurable defluorinating ability when grown in a 1080 and sterile soil suspension. Two species, the bacteria Micromonospora, and the actinomycete Streptosporangium, have not been previously reported for their defluorinating ability. These results indicate that defluorinating micro-organisms are present in soils in south-eastern Australia, which adds weight to other studies that found that 1080 is subject to microbiological degradative processes following removal from the bait substrate. Soil micro-organism defluorination, in combination with physical breakdown and uptake by plants, indicates that fluoroacetate in soils and natural water ways is unlikely to persist. This has implications for the better informed use of 1080 in pest animal management programmes in south-eastern Australia.