The evolution of the Global Burden of Disease framework for disease, injury and risk factor quantification: Developing the evidence base for national, regional and global public health action

Reliable, comparable information about the main causes of disease and injury in populations, and how these are changing, is a critical input for debates about priorities in the health sector. Traditional sources of information about the descriptive epidemiology of diseases, injuries and risk factors are generally incomplete, fragmented and of uncertain reliability and comparability. Lack of a standardized measurement framework to permit comparisons across diseases and injuries, as well as risk factors, and failure to systematically evaluate data quality have impeded comparative analyses of the true public health importance of various conditions and risk factors. As a consequence the impact of major conditions and hazards on population health has been poorly appreciated, often leading to a lack of public health investment. Global disease and risk factor quantification improved dramatically in the early 1990s with the completion of the first Global Burden of Disease Study. For the first time, the comparative importance of over 100 diseases and injuries, and ten major risk factors, for global and regional health status could be assessed using a common metric (Disability-Adjusted Life Years) which simultaneously accounted for both premature mortality and the prevalence, duration and severity of the non-fatal consequences of disease and injury. As a consequence, mental health conditions and injuries, for which non-fatal outcomes are of particular significance, were identified as being among the leading causes of disease/injury burden worldwide, with clear implications for policy, particularly prevention. A major achievement of the Study was the complete global descriptive epidemiology, including incidence, prevalence and mortality, by age, sex and Region, of over 100 diseases and injuries. National applications, further methodological research and an increase in data availability have led to improved national, regional and global estimates for 2000, but substantial uncertainty around the disease burden caused by major conditions, including, HIV, remains. The rapid implementation of cost-effective data collection systems in developing countries is a key priority if global public policy to promote health is to be more effectively informed.

Cost-effectiveness of screening with contrast enhanced magnetic resonance imaging vs X-ray mammography of women at a high familial risk of breast cancer

Contrast enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (CE MRI) is the most sensitive tool for screening women who are at high familial risk of breast cancer. Our aim in this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of X-ray mammography (XRM), CE MRI or both strategies combined. In total, 649 women were enrolled in the MARIBS study and screened with both CE MRI and mammography resulting in 1881 screens and 1-7 individual annual screening events. Women aged 35-49 years at high risk of breast cancer, either because they have a strong family history of breast cancer or are tested carriers of a BRCA1, BRCA2 or TP53 mutation or are at a 50% risk of having inherited such a mutation, were recruited from 22 centres and offered annual MRI and XRM for between 2 and 7 years. Information on the number and type of further investigations was collected and specifically calculated unit costs were used to calculate the incremental cost per cancer detected. The numbers of cancer detected was 13 for mammography, 27 for CE MRI and 33 for mammography and CE MRI combined. In the subgroup of BRCA1 (BRCA2) mutation carriers or of women having a first degree relative with a mutation in BRCA1 (BRCA2) corresponding numbers were 3 (6), 12 (7) and 12 (11), respectively. For all women, the incremental cost per cancer detected with CE MRI and mammography combined was 28 pound 284 compared to mammography. When only BRCA1 or the BRCA2 groups were considered, this cost would be reduced to 11 pound 731 (CE MRI vs mammography) and 15 pound 302 (CE MRI and mammography vs mammography). Results were most sensitive to the unit cost estimate for a CE MRI screening test. Contrast-enhanced MRI might be a cost-effective screening modality for women at high risk, particularly for the BRCA1 and BRCA2 subgroups. Further work is needed to assess the impact of screening on mortality and health-related quality of life.

Health-protective behaviours and risk of fall-related hip fractures: a population-based case-control study

Background: fall-related hip fractures are one of the most common causes of disability and mortality in older age. The study aimed to quantify the relationship between lifestyle behaviours and the risk of fall-related hip fracture in community-dwelling older people. The purpose was to contribute evidence for the promotion of healthy ageing as a population-based intervention for falls injury prevention. Methods: a case-control study was conducted with 387 participants, with a case-control ratio of 1:2. Incident cases of fall-related hip fracture in people aged 65 and over were recruited from six hospital sites in Brisbane, Australia, in 2003-04. Community-based controls, matched by age, sex and postcode, were recruited via electoral roll sampling. A questionnaire designed to assess lifestyle risk factors, identified as determinants of healthy ageing, was administered at face-to-face interviews. Results: behavioural factors which had a significant independent protective effect on the risk of hip fracture included never smoking [adjusted odds ratio (AOR): 0.33 (0.12-0.88)], moderate alcohol consumption in mid- and older age [AOR: 0.49 (0.25-0.95)], not losing weight between mid- and older age [AOR: 0.36 (0.20-0.65)], playing sport in older age [AOR: 0.49 (0.29-0.83)] and practising a greater number of preventive medical care [AOR: 0.54 (0.32-0.94)] and self-health behaviours [AOR: 0.56 (0.33-0.94)]. Conclusion: with universal exposures, clear associations and modifiable behavioural factors, this study has contributed evidence to reduce the major public health burden of fall-related hip fractures using readily implemented population-based healthy ageing strategies.

Global and regional burden of disease and risk factors, 2001: systematic analysis of population health data

Background Our aim was to calculate the global burden of disease and risk factors for 2001, to examine regional trends from 1990 to 2001, and to provide a starting point for the analysis of the Disease Control Priorities Project (DCPP). Methods We calculated mortality, incidence, prevalence, and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) for 136 diseases and injuries, for seven income/geographic country groups. To assess trends, we re-estimated all-cause mortality for 1990 with the same methods as for 2001. We estimated mortality and disease burden attributable to 19 risk factors. Findings About 56 million people died in 2001. Of these, 10.6 million were children, 99% of whom lived in low-and-middle-income countries. More than half of child deaths in 2001 were attributable to acute respiratory infections, measles, diarrhoea, malaria, and HIV/AIDS. The ten leading diseases for global disease burden were perinatal conditions, lower respiratory infections, ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, HIV/AIDS, diarrhoeal diseases, unipolar major depression, malaria, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and tuberculosis. There was a 20% reduction in global disease burden per head due to communicable, maternal, perinatal, and nutritional conditions between 1990 and 2001. Almost half the disease burden in low-and-middle-income countries is now from non-communicable diseases (disease burden per head in Sub-Saharan Africa and the low-and-middle-income countries of Europe and Central Asia increased between 1990 and 2001). Undernutrition remains the leading risk factor for health loss. An estimated 45% of global mortality and 36% of global disease burden are attributable to the joint hazardous effects of the 19 risk factors studied. Uncertainty in all-cause mortality estimates ranged from around 1% in high-income countries to 15-20% in Sub-Saharan Africa. Uncertainty was larger for mortality from specific diseases, and for incidence and prevalence of non-fatal outcomes. Interpretation Despite uncertainties about mortality and burden of disease estimates, our findings suggest that substantial gains in health have been achieved in most populations, countered by the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Sub-Saharan Africa and setbacks in adult mortality in countries of the former Soviet Union. our results on major disease, injury, and risk factor causes of loss of health, together with information on the cost-effectiveness of interventions, can assist in accelerating progress towards better health and reducing the persistent differentials in health between poor and rich countries.

Social inequalities in male mortality, and in male mortality from smoking: indirect estimation from national death rates in England and Wales, Poland, and North America

Background There are substantial social inequalities in adult male mortality in many countries. Smoking is often more prevalent among men of lower social class, education, or income. The contribution of smoking to these social inequalities in mortality remains uncertain. Methods The contribution of smoking to adult mortality in a population can be estimated indirectly from disease-specific death rates in that population (using absolute lung cancer rates to indicate proportions due to smoking of mortality from certain other diseases). We applied these methods to 1996 death rates at ages 35-69 years in men in three different social strata in four countries, based on a total of 0.6 million deaths. The highest and lowest social strata were based on social class (professional vs unskilled manual) in England and Wales, neighbourhood income (top vs bottom quintile) in urban Canada, and completed years of education (more than vs less than 12 years) in the USA and Poland. Results In each country, there was about a two-fold difference between the highest and the lowest social strata in overall risks of dying among men aged 35-69 years (England and Wales 21% vs 43%, USA 20% vs 37%, Canada 21% vs 34%, Poland 26% vs 50%: four-country mean 22% vs 41%, four-country mean absolute difference 19%). More than half of this difference in mortality between the top and bottom social strata involved differences in risks of being killed at age 35-69 years by smoking (England and Wales 4% vs 19%, USA 4% vs 15%, Canada 6% vs 13%, Poland 5% vs 22%: four-country mean 5% vs 17%, four-country mean absolute difference 12%). Smoking-attributed mortality accounted for nearly half of total male mortality in the lowest social stratum of each country. Conclusion In these populations, most, but not all, of the substantial social inequalities in adult male mortality during the 1990s were due to the effects of smoking. Widespread cessation of smoking could eventually halve the absolute differences between these social strata in the risk of premature death.

Using cohort studies to estimate mortality among injecting drug users that is not attributable to AIDS

Background: Injecting drug use (IDU) and associated mortality appear to be increasing in many parts of the world. IDU is an important factor in HIV transmission. In estimating AIDS mortality attributable to IDU, it is important to take account of premature mortality rates from other causes to ensure that AIDS related mortality among injecting drug users (IDUs) is not overestimated. The current review provides estimates of the excess non-AIDS mortality among IDUs. Method: Searches were conducted with Medline, PsycINFO, and the Web of Science. The authors also searched reference lists of identified papers and an earlier literature review by English et al (1995). Crude. mortality rates (CMRs) were derived from data on the number of deaths, period of follow UP, and number of participants. In estimating the all-cause mortality, two rates were calculated: one that included all cohort studies identified in the search, and one that only included studies that reported on AIDS deaths in their cohort. This provided lower and upper mortality rates, respectively. Results: The current paper derived weighted mortality rates based upon cohort studies that included 179 885 participants, 1 219 422 person-years of observation, and 16 593 deaths. The weighted crude AIDS mortality rate from studies that reported AIDS deaths was approximately 0.78% per annum. The median estimated non-AIDS mortality rate was 1.08% per annum. Conclusions: Illicit drug users have a greatly increased risk of premature death and mortality due to AIDS forms a significant part of that increased risk; it is, however, only part of that risk. Future work needs to examine mortality rates among IDUs in developing countries, and collect data on the relation between HIV and increased mortality due to all causes among this group.

Whose socioeconomic status influences a woman's obesity risk: her mother's, her father's, or her own?

Background Evidence on the relative influence of childhood vs adulthood socioeconomic conditions on obesity risk is limited and equivocal. The objective of this study was to investigate associations of several indicators of mothers', fathers', and own socioeconomic status, and intergenerational social mobility, with body mass index (BMI) and weight change in young women. Methods This population-based cohort study used survey data provided by 8756 women in the young cohort (aged 18-23 years at baseline) of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health. In 1996 and 2000, women completed mailed surveys in which they reported their height and weight, and their own, mother's, and father's education and occupation. Results Multiple linear regression models showed that both childhood and adulthood socioeconomic status were associated with women's BMI and weight change, generally in the hypothesized (inverse) direction, but the associations varied according to socioeconomic status and weight indicator. Social mobility was associated with BMI (based on father's socioeconomic status) and weight change (based on mother's socioeconomic status), but results were slightly less consistent. Conclusions Results suggest lasting effects of childhood socioeconomic status on young women's weight status, independent of adult socioeconomic status, although the effect may be attenuated among those who are upwardly socially mobile. While the mechanisms underlying these associations require further investigation, public health strategies aimed at preventing obesity may need to target families of low socioeconomic status early in children's lives.

Socio-economic distribution of environmental risk factors for childhood injury

Objective: Childhood injury remains the single most important cause of mortality in children aged between 1-14 years in many countries. It has been proposed that lower socio-economic status (SES) and poorer housing contribute to potential hazards in the home environment. This study sought to establish whether the prevalence of observed hazards in and around the home was differentially distributed by SES, in order to identify opportunities for injury prevention. Methods: This study was a cross-sectional, random sample survey of primary school children from 32 schools in Brisbane. Interviews and house audits were conducted between July 2000 and April 2003 to collect information on SES (income, employment and education) and previously identified household hazards. Results: There was evidence of a relationship between prevalence of household environmental hazards and household SES; however, the magnitude and direction of this relationship appeared to be hazard-specific. Household income was related to play equipment characteristics, with higher SES groups being more likely to be exposed to risk. All three SES indicators were associated with differences in the home safety characteristics, with the lower SES groups more likely to be exposed to risk. Conclusion:The differential distribution of environmental risk factors by SES of household may help explain the SES differential in the burden of injury and provides opportunities for focusing efforts to address the problem.

Maternal health during pregnancy and perinatal mortality in Bangladesh: evidence form a large-scale community-based clinical trial

Perinatal mortality is very high in Bangladesh. In this setting, few community-level studies have assessed the influence of underlying maternal health factors on perinatal outcomes. We used the data from a community-based clinical controlled trial conducted between 1994 and 1997 in the catchment areas of a large MCH/FP hospital located in Mirpur, a suburban area of Dhaka in Bangladesh, to investigate the levels of perinatal mortality and its associated maternal health factors during pregnancy. A total of 2007 women were followed after recruitment up to delivery, maternal death, or until they dropped out of the study. Of these, 1584 who gave birth formed our study subjects. The stillbirth rate was 39.1 per 1000 births [95% confidence interval (CI) 39.0, 39.3] and the perinatal mortality rate (up to 3 days) was 54.3 per 1000 births [95% CI 54.0, 54.6] among the study population. In the fully adjusted logistic regression model, the risk of perinatal mortality was as high as 2.7 times [95% CI 1.5, 4.9] more likely for women with hypertensive disorders, 5.0 times [95% CI 2.3, 10.8] as high for women who had antepartum haemorrhage and 2.6 times [95% CI 1.2, 5.8] as high for women who had higher haemoglobin levels in pregnancy when compared with their counterparts. The inclusion of potential confounding variables such as poor obstetric history, sociodemographic characteristics and preterm delivery influenced only marginally the net effect of important maternal health factors associated with perinatal mortality. Perinatal mortality in the study setting was significantly associated with poor maternal health conditions during pregnancy. The results of this study point towards the urgent need for monitoring complications in high-risk pregnancies, calling for the specific components of the safe motherhood programme interventions that are designed to manage these complications of pregnancy.

Lifetime suicide risk in major depression: sex and age determinants

Background: Recent work has demonstrated that the lifetime suicide risk for patients with DSM IV Major Depression cannot mathematically approximate the accepted figure of 15%. Gender and age significantly affect both the prevalence of major depression and suicide risk, Methods: Gender and age stratified calculations were made on the entire population of the USA in 1994 using a mathematical algorithm. Sex specific corrections for under-reporting were incorporated into the design. Results: The lifetime suicide risks for men and women were 7% and 1%, respectively. The combined risk was 3.4%. The male:female ratio for suicide risk in major depression was 10:1 for youths under 25, and 5.6:1 for adults. Conclusions: Suicide in major depression is predominantly a male problem, although complacency towards female sufferers is to be avoided. Diagnosis of major depression is of limited help in predicting suicide risk compared to case specific factors. The male experience of depression that leads to suicide is often not identified as a legitimate medical complaint by either sufferers or professionals. Increasing help-accessing by males is a priority. Clinical implications: Patients with a history of hospitalisation; comorbidity, especially for substance abuse; and who are male, require greater vigilance for suicide risk. It may be that for males che threshold for diagnosing and treating major depression needs to be lowered. Limitations: This research is based on a mathematical algorithm to approximate a life-long longitudinal study that identifies community cases of depression. Our findings therefore rely on the validity of the statistics used. Extrapolation is limited to populations with an actual suicide rate of 17/100,000 or less and a lifetime prevalence of major depression of 17% or more. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Ocular and systemic markers for vascular function in those at risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular disease

The devastating impact of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) -related morbidity and mortality on global healthcare is escalating with higher prevalences of obesity, poor diet, and sedentary lifestyles. Therefore, the clinical need for early diagnosis and prevention in groups of high-risk individuals is necessary. The purpose of this thesis was to investigate the use of surrogate markers, namely retinal vascular function, to determine future vascular endothelial dysfunction, atherosclerosis, large vessel disease and cardiovascular risk in certain groups. This namely covered normoglycaemic and normotensive South Asians (SAs), those with Impaired-Glucose Tolerance (IGT) and individuals with a familial history (FH) of T2DM. Additionally the effect of overweight and obesity was studied. The techniques and modified protocols adopted for this thesis involved the investigation of endothelial function by means of vascular reactivity at the ocular and systemic level. Furthermore, the relationships between retinal and systemic function with circulating markers for endothelial cell function and cardiovascular risk markers were explored. The principal studies and findings of the research were: Vascular Function in Normoglycaemic Individuals with and without a FH of T2DM WE FH individuals exhibited higher levels of total cholesterol levels that correlated well with the retinal arterial dilation amplitude to flicker light stimulus. However this did not extend to noticeable differences in markers for endothelial cell damage and impaired retinal and systemic function. Vascular Function in Normoglycaemic South-Asians vs. White-Europeans without a FH and Vascular Disturbances Compared to healthy WEs (normo -glycaemic and -tensive), SA participants exhibited levels of dyslipidaemia and a state of oxidative stress that extended to impaired vascular function as detected by reduced brachial artery flow-mediated dilation, slower retinal arterial vessel dilation reaction times (Appendix 3) and steeper constriction profiles. Furthermore, gender sub-group analysis presented in a sub-chapter shows that SA males demonstrated 24-hour systemic blood pressure (BP) and heart rate variability (HRV) abnormalities and heightened cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Vascular Function in Individuals Newly Diagnosed with IGT as compared to Normoglycaemic Healthy Controls Newly-diagnosed WE and SA IGT patients showed a greater risk for CVD and T2DM progression by means of 24-hour BP abnormalities, dyslipidaemia, increased carotid artery intimal-media thickness (c-IMT), Framingham scores and cholesterol ratios. Additionally, pre-clinical markers for oxidative stress and endothelial dysfunction, as evident by significantly lower levels of plasma glutathione and increased levels of von-Willebrand factor in IGT individuals, extended to impaired vascular systemic and retinal function compared to normal controls. This originally shows retinal, systemic and biochemical disturbances in newly-diagnosed IGT not previously reported before. Vascular Function in Normal, Overweight and Obese Individuals of SA and WE Ethnicity In addition to the intended study chapters, the thesis also investigated the influence of obesity and overweight on vascular function. Most importantly, it was found for the first time that compared to lean individuals it was overweight and not obese individuals that exhibited signs of vascular systemic and ocular dysfunction that was evident alongside markers of atherosclerosis, CVD risk and endothelial damage.