Implementing a double dividend: recycling ecotaxes towards lower labour taxes

In this paper we follow the tradition of applied general equilibrium modelling of the Walrasian static variety to study the empirical viability of a double dividend (green, welfare, and employment) in the Spanish economy. We consider a counterfactual scenario in which an ecotax is levied on the intermediate and final use of energy goods. Under a revenue neutral assumption, we evaluate the real income and employment impact of lowering payroll taxes. To appraise to what extent the model structure and behavioural assumptions may influence the results, we perform simulations under a range of alternative model and policy scenarios. We conclude that a double dividend –better environmental quality, as measured by reduced CO2 emissions, and improved levels of employment– may be an achievable goal of economic policy.

Lower bounds for the number of limit cycles of trigonometric Abel equations

"Vegeu el resum a l'inici del document del fitxer adjunt"

Cost Factors in Digital Projects: A Model Useful in Other Applications

Description of a costing model developed by digital production librarian to determine the cost to put an item into the Claremont Colleges Digital Library at the Claremont University Consortium. This case study includes variables such as material types and funding sources, data collection methods, and formulas and calculations for analysis. This model is useful for grant applications, cost allocations, and budgeting for digital project coordinators and digital library projects.

The Total fiscal cost of indirect taxation: an approximation using Catalonia's recent input-output table

In this note we quantify to what extent indirect taxation influences and distorts prices. To do so we use the networked accounting structure of the most recent input-output table of Catalonia, an autonomous region of Spain, to model price formation. The role of indirect taxation is considered both from a classical value perspective and a more neoclassical flavoured one. We show that they would yield equivalent results under some basic premises. The neoclassical perspective, however, offers a bit more flexibility to distinguish among different tax figures and hence provide a clearer disaggregate picture of how an indirect tax ends up affecting, and by how much, the cost structure.

Metoprolol prevents sodium retention induced by lower body negative pressure in healthy men.

BACKGROUND: Lower body negative pressure (LBNP) has been shown to induce a progressive activation of neurohormonal systems, and a renal tubular and hemodynamic response that mimics the renal adaptation observed in congestive heart failure (CHF). As beta-blockers play an important role in the management of CHF patients, the effects of metoprolol on the renal response were examined in healthy subjects during sustained LBNP. METHODS: Twenty healthy male subjects were randomized in this double blind, placebo versus metoprolol 200 mg once daily, study. After 10 days of treatment, each subject was exposed to 3 levels of LBNP (0, -10, and -20 mbar) for 1 hour, each level of LBNP being separated by 2 days. Neurohormonal profiles, systemic and renal hemodynamics, as well as renal sodium handling were measured before, during, and after LBNP. RESULTS: Blood pressure and heart rate were significantly lower in the metoprolol group throughout the study (P < 0.01). GFR and RPF were similar in both groups at baseline, and no change in renal hemodynamic values was detected at any level of LBNP. However, a reduction in sodium excretion was observed in the placebo group at -20 mbar, whereas no change was detected in the metoprolol group. An increase in plasma renin activity was also observed at -20 mbar in the placebo group that was not observed with metoprolol. CONCLUSION: The beta-blocker metoprolol prevents the sodium retention induced by lower body negative pressure in healthy subjects despite a lower blood pressure. The prevention of sodium retention may be due to a blunting of the neurohormonal response. These effects of metoprolol on the renal response to LBNP may in part explain the beneficial effects of this agent in heart failure patients.

Which screening strategy using BMD measurements would be most cost effective for hip fracture prevention in elderly women? A decision analysis based on a Markov model.

INTRODUCTION: Hip fractures are responsible for excessive mortality, decreasing the 5-year survival rate by about 20%. From an economic perspective, they represent a major source of expense, with direct costs in hospitalization, rehabilitation, and institutionalization. The incidence rate sharply increases after the age of 70, but it can be reduced in women aged 70-80 years by therapeutic interventions. Recent analyses suggest that the most efficient strategy is to implement such interventions in women at the age of 70 years. As several guidelines recommend bone mineral density (BMD) screening of postmenopausal women with clinical risk factors, our objective was to assess the cost-effectiveness of two screening strategies applied to elderly women aged 70 years and older. METHODS: A cost-effectiveness analysis was performed using decision-tree analysis and a Markov model. Two alternative strategies, one measuring BMD of all women, and one measuring BMD only of those having at least one risk factor, were compared with the reference strategy "no screening". Cost-effectiveness ratios were measured as cost per year gained without hip fracture. Most probabilities were based on data observed in EPIDOS, SEMOF and OFELY cohorts. RESULTS: In this model, which is mostly based on observed data, the strategy "screen all" was more cost effective than "screen women at risk." For one woman screened at the age of 70 and followed for 10 years, the incremental (additional) cost-effectiveness ratio of these two strategies compared with the reference was 4,235 euros and 8,290 euros, respectively. CONCLUSION: The results of this model, under the assumptions described in the paper, suggest that in women aged 70-80 years, screening all women with dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) would be more effective than no screening or screening only women with at least one risk factor. Cost-effectiveness studies based on decision-analysis trees maybe useful tools for helping decision makers, and further models based on different assumptions should be performed to improve the level of evidence on cost-effectiveness ratios of the usual screening strategies for osteoporosis.

Cost-effectiveness of low-molecular-weight heparin for secondary prophylaxis of cancer-related venous thromboembolism.

Although extended secondary prophylaxis with low-molecular-weight heparin was recently shown to be more effective than warfarin for cancer-related venous thromboembolism, its cost-effectiveness compared to traditional prophylaxis with warfarin is uncertain. We built a decision analytic model to evaluate the clinical and economic outcomes of a 6-month course of low-molecular-weight heparin or warfarin therapy in 65-year-old patients with cancer-related venous thromboembolism. We used probability estimates and utilities reported in the literature and published cost data. Using a US societal perspective, we compared strategies based on quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and lifetime costs. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of low-molecular-weight heparin compared with warfarin was 149,865 dollars/QALY. Low-molecular-weight heparin yielded a quality-adjusted life expectancy of 1.097 QALYs at the cost of 15,329 dollars. Overall, 46% (7108 dollars) of the total costs associated with low-molecular-weight heparin were attributable to pharmacy costs. Although the low-molecular-weigh heparin strategy achieved a higher incremental quality-adjusted life expectancy than the warfarin strategy (difference of 0.051 QALYs), this clinical benefit was offset by a substantial cost increment of 7,609 dollars. Cost-effectiveness results were sensitive to variation of the early mortality risks associated with low-molecular-weight heparin and warfarin and the pharmacy costs for low-molecular-weight heparin. Based on the best available evidence, secondary prophylaxis with low-molecular-weight heparin is more effective than warfarin for cancer-related venous thromboembolism. However, because of the substantial pharmacy costs of extended low-molecular-weight heparin prophylaxis in the US, this treatment is relatively expensive compared with warfarin.

HCV infection after liver transplantation is associated with lower levels of alloreactive CD4+CD25+CD45RO+IL-7R+high+ T cells

Aim: Expression of IL-7R discriminates alloreactive CD4 T cells (Foxp3 negative), from IL-7Rlow regulatory CD4 T cells (Foxp3 positive). Chronic hepatitis C virus infection (HCV) reduces expression of IL-7R on T cells thus promoting persistence of infection. The aim of this study was to analyze the effect of HCV infection on the expression of IL-7R of activated CD4+ T cells in liver transplant patients. Patients and methods: We analyzed PBMC from liver transplant recipients for the expression of CD4, CD25, FoxP3, IL-7R (24 HCV negative and 29 HCV-chronically infected). We compared these data with non-transplanted individuals (52 HCV-chronically infected patients and 38 healthy donors). Results: In HCV-infected liver transplant recipients, levels of CD4+CD25+CD45RO+IL-7R+ T cells were significantly reduced (10.5+/-0.9%) when compared to non-HCV-infected liver transplant recipients (17.6+/-1.4%) (P<0.001), while both groups (HCV-infected and negative transplant recipients) had significantly higher levels than healthy individuals (6.6+/-0.9%) (P<0.0001). After successful antiviral therapy (sustained antiviral response), 6 HCV-infected transplant recipients showed an increase of CD4+CD25+CD45RO+IL-7R+ T cells, reaching levels similar to that of non-HCVinfected recipients (10.73+/-2.63% prior therapy versus 21.7+/-6.3% after clearance of HCV). (P<0.05) In 4 non-responders (i.e. HCVRNA remaining present in serum), levels of CD4+CD25+CD45RO+IL-7R+ T cells remained unmodified during and after antiviral treatment (11.8+/- 3.3% versus 11.3+/-3.3% respectively). Conclusions: Overall, these data indicate that CD4+CD25+CD45RO+IL-7R+ T cells appear to be modulated by chronic HCV infection after liver transplantation. Whether lower levels of alloreactive T cells in HCV-infected liver transplant recipients are associated with a tolerogenic profile remains to be studied.

Objective analysis of gait coordination for total knee arthroplasty outcome

Introduction: Coordination is a strategy chosen by the central nervous system to control the movements and maintain stability during gait. Coordinated multi-joint movements require a complex interaction between nervous outputs, biomechanical constraints, and pro-prioception. Quantitatively understanding and modeling gait coordination still remain a challenge. Surgeons lack a way to model and appreciate the coordination of patients before and after surgery of the lower limbs. Patients alter their gait patterns and their kinematic synergies when they walk faster or slower than normal speed to maintain their stability and minimize the energy cost of locomotion. The goal of this study was to provide a dynamical system approach to quantitatively describe human gait coordination and apply it to patients before and after total knee arthroplasty. Methods: A new method of quantitative analysis of interjoint coordination during gait was designed, providing a general model to capture the whole dynamics and showing the kinematic synergies at various walking speeds. The proposed model imposed a relationship among lower limb joint angles (hips and knees) to parameterize the dynamics of locomotion of each individual. An integration of different analysis tools such as Harmonic analysis, Principal Component Analysis, and Artificial Neural Network helped overcome high-dimensionality, temporal dependence, and non-linear relationships of the gait patterns. Ten patients were studied using an ambulatory gait device (Physilog®). Each participant was asked to perform two walking trials of 30m long at 3 different speeds and to complete an EQ-5D questionnaire, a WOMAC and Knee Society Score. Lower limbs rotations were measured by four miniature angular rate sensors mounted respectively, on each shank and thigh. The outcomes of the eight patients undergoing total knee arthroplasty, recorded pre-operatively and post-operatively at 6 weeks, 3 months, 6 months and 1 year were compared to 2 age-matched healthy subjects. Results: The new method provided coordination scores at various walking speeds, ranged between 0 and 10. It determined the overall coordination of the lower limbs as well as the contribution of each joint to the total coordination. The difference between the pre-operative and post-operative coordination values were correlated with the improvements of the subjective outcome scores. Although the study group was small, the results showed a new way to objectively quantify gait coordination of patients undergoing total knee arthroplasty, using only portable body-fixed sensors. Conclusion: A new method for objective gait coordination analysis has been developed with very encouraging results regarding the objective outcome of lower limb surgery.

Seigniorage-maximizing inflation

What is the seigniorage-maximizing level of inflation? Four models formulae for the seigniorage maximizing inflation rate (SMIR) are compared. Two sticky-price models arrive at very different quantitative recommendations although both predict somewhat lower SMIRs than Cagan’s formula and a variant of a .ex-price model due to Kimbrough (2006). The models differ markedly in how inflation distorts the labour market: The Calvo model implies that inflation and output are negatively related and that output is falling in price stickiness whilst the Rotemberg cost-of-price-adjustment model implies exactly the opposite. Interestingly, if our version of the Calvo model is to be believed, the level of inflation experienced recently in advanced economies such as the USA and the UK may be quite close to the SMIR.

Democratization as a cost-saving device

We propose a theoretical analysis of democratization processes in which an elite extends the franchise to the poor when threatened with a revolution. The poor could govern without changing the political system by maintaining a continuous revolutionary threat on the elite. Revolutionary threats, however, are costly to the poor and democracy is a superior sys- tem in which political agreement is reached through costless voting. This provides a rationale for democratic transitions that has not been discussed in the literature.

The regional electricity generation mix in Scotland: A portfolio selection approach

Standalone levelised cost assessments of electricity supply options miss an important contribution that renewable and non-fossil fuel technologies can make to the electricity portfolio: that of reducing the variability of electricity costs, and their potentially damaging impact upon economic activity. Portfolio theory applications to the electricity generation mix have shown that renewable technologies, their costs being largely uncorrelated with non-renewable technologies, can offer such benefits. We look at the existing Scottish generation mix and examine drivers of changes out to 2020. We assess recent scenarios for the Scottish generation mix in 2020 against mean-variance efficient portfolios of electricity-generating technologies. Each of the scenarios studied implies a portfolio cost of electricity that is between 22% and 38% higher than the portfolio cost of electricity in 2007. These scenarios prove to be “inefficient” in the sense that, for example, lower variance portfolios can be obtained without increasing portfolio costs, typically by expanding the share of renewables. As part of extensive sensitivity analysis, we find that Wave and Tidal technologies can contribute to lower risk electricity portfolios, while not increasing portfolio cost.

Optimal contracting with private information on cost expectation and variability

We study the screening problem that arises in a framework where, initially, the agent is privately informed about both the expected production cost and the cost variability and, at a later stage, he learns privately the cost realization. The speci c set of relevant incentive constraints, and so the characteristics of the optimal mechanism, depend nely upon the curvature of the principal s marginal surplus function as well as the relative importance of the two initial information problems. Pooling of production levels is optimally induced with respect to the cost variability when the principal's knowledge imperfection about the latter is sufficiently less important than that about the expected cost.

(Don’t) Make My Vote Count

Proponents of proportional electoral rules often argue that majority rule depresses turnout and may lower welfare due to the 'tyranny of the majority' problem. The present paper studies the impact of electoral rules on turnout and social welfare. We analyze a model of instrumental voting where citizens have private information over their individual cost of voting and over the alternative they prefer. The electoral rule used to select the winning alternative is a combination of majority rule and proportional rule. Results show that the above arguments against majority rule do not hold in this set up. Social welfare and turnout increase with the weight that the electoral rule gives to majority rule when the electorate is expected to be split, and they are independent of the electoral rule employed when the expected size of the minority group tends to zero. However, more proportional rules can increase turnout within the minority group. This effect is stronger the smaller the minority group. We then conclude that majority rule fosters overall turnout and increases social welfare, whereas proportional rule fosters the participation of minorities.