Essays on health care reform, wealth inequality, and demography

This thesis contains three chapters. The first chapter uses a general equilibrium framework to simulate and compare the long run effects of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA) and of health care costs reduction policies on macroeconomic variables, government budget, and welfare of individuals. We found that all policies were able to reduce uninsured population, with the PPACA being more effective than cost reductions. The PPACA increased public deficit mainly due to the Medicaid expansion, forcing tax hikes. On the other hand, cost reductions alleviated the fiscal burden of public insurance, reducing public deficit and taxes. Regarding welfare effects, the PPACA as a whole and cost reductions are welfare improving. High welfare gains would be achieved if the U.S. medical costs followed the same trend of OECD countries. Besides, feasible cost reductions are more welfare improving than most of the PPACA components, proving to be a good alternative. The second chapter documents that life cycle general equilibrium models with heterogeneous agents have a very hard time reproducing the American wealth distribution. A common assumption made in this literature is that all young adults enter the economy with no initial assets. In this chapter, we relax this assumption – not supported by the data – and evaluate the ability of an otherwise standard life cycle model to account for the U.S. wealth inequality. The new feature of the model is that agents enter the economy with assets drawn from an initial distribution of assets. We found that heterogeneity with respect to initial wealth is key for this class of models to replicate the data. According to our results, American inequality can be explained almost entirely by the fact that some individuals are lucky enough to be born into wealth, while others are born with few or no assets. The third chapter documents that a common assumption adopted in life cycle general equilibrium models is that the population is stable at steady state, that is, its relative age distribution becomes constant over time. An open question is whether the demographic assumptions commonly adopted in these models in fact imply that the population becomes stable. In this chapter we prove the existence of a stable population in a demographic environment where both the age-specific mortality rates and the population growth rate are constant over time, the setup commonly adopted in life cycle general equilibrium models. Hence, the stability of the population do not need to be taken as assumption in these models.

Trade liberalization and economic growth in Central America

Includes bibliography

O uso de wavelets na determinação do expoente de Hurst de uma série temporal diária de chuvas do município de Araras-SP de 1955-2000

Pós-graduação em Física - IGCE

Macroeconomics for development in Latin America and the Caribbean: Some new considerations on countercyclicality

Includes bibliography.

Essays on Industrial Organization and Environmental Economics

This dissertation studies environmental regulation issues in the hog production industry as well as forces behind the reorganization of the industry during the past two decades. Federal and State-level environmental regulations imposed on U.S. hog production during the year 2003 are examined in Chapter 1. Based on the number of regulations passed by the Federal government and states, the 2003 regulatory index is constructed. The regulatory stringency index suggests that state-level regulations vary across states and have increased over the years. In addition, state-level regulations are more stringent than federal regulations. Chapter 2 develops an empirically implementable theoretical model which allows us to investigate the long-run effects of environmental regulations on the U.S. hog industry. Hog feeding operations (HFOs) are divided into large feeding operations (LHFOs) and small feeding operations (SHFOs). The impact of the presence of a large number of LHFOs on the entry and exit of CHFOs is also examined. Results of this study suggest that: Increased state-level regulation stringency significantly lowers the output of SHFOs; increased state-level regulation stringency significantly lowers the output of LHFOs; increased state-level regulation stringency significantly lowers the number of SHFOs; SHFO output rises significantly in states that have a greater number of LHFOs; LHFO output rises significantly in states that have a greater number of LHFOs; the number of SHFOs significantly increases in states that have a greater numbers of LHFOs; regulation increases the average SHFO size; and regulation decreases the average LHFO size. Chapter 3 examines the importance of input availability, market attractiveness, agglomeration economies and environmental regulations on the reorganization of U.S. hog production for a panel of 22 U.S. hog producing states which include, Northern states, Southern states and Midwest states for the period 1994-2006. Results from this study suggest that: Hog production in a state is positively affected by hog production in a nearby state, confirming the presence of agglomeration economies; Environmental regulations and high corn price have negative effects on state-level U.S. hog production; High hog prices, and favorable labor cost, and land values attract hog production; and transportation cost has no effect on hog production. Advisors: Azzeddine Azzam and Karina Schoengold

CC96-396 Productcion Flexibility Contracts: Provisions, Implications and the Participation Decision

The Federal Agriculture Improvement and Reform (FAIR) Act of 1996 (P.L. 104-127) was signed into law by President Clinton on April 4, 1996. Most provisions of the new law, including the commodity provisions, will be effective for seven years, 1996-2002. Unlike previous farm bills, provisions relating to commodity supports are grouped together under what is known as the Agricultural Market Transition Act (AMTA) program. Producers of seven commodities: corn, sorghum, barley, oats, wheat, rice and cotton must sign Productive Flexibility Contracts (PFCs) to participate in the AMTA. These seven commodities are referred to as "contract commodities." This publication focuses on the PFCs, beginning with an overview of contract provisions. Potential short- and long-run implications of PFCs are then discussed.

Essays on Wage and Price Formation in Sweden

Study IReal Wage Determination in the Swedish Engineering Industry This study uses the monopoly union model to examine the determination of real wages and in particular the effects of active labour market programmes (ALMPs) on real wages in the engineering industry. Quarterly data for the period 1970:1 to 1996:4 are used in a cointegration framework, utilising the Johansen's maximum likelihood procedure. On a basis of the Johansen (trace) test results, vector error correction (VEC) models are created in order to model the determination of real wages in the engineering industry. The estimation results support the presence of a long-run wage-raising effect to rises in the labour productivity, in the tax wedge, in the alternative real consumer wage and in real UI benefits. The estimation results also support the presence of a long-run wage-raising effect due to positive changes in the participation rates regarding ALMPs, relief jobs and labour market training. This could be interpreted as meaning that the possibility of being a participant in an ALMP increases the utility for workers of not being employed in the industry, which in turn could increase real wages in the industry in the long run. Finally, the estimation results show evidence of a long-run wage-reducing effect due to positive changes in the unemployment rate. Study IIIntersectoral Wage Linkages in Sweden The purpose of this study is to investigate whether the wage-setting in certain sectors of the Swedish economy affects the wage-setting in other sectors. The theoretical background is the Scandinavian model of inflation, which states that the wage-setting in the sectors exposed to international competition affects the wage-setting in the sheltered sectors of the economy. The Johansen maximum likelihood cointegration approach is applied to quarterly data on Swedish sector wages for the period 1980:1–2002:2. Different vector error correction (VEC) models are created, based on assumptions as to which sectors are exposed to international competition and which are not. The adaptability of wages between sectors is then tested by imposing restrictions on the estimated VEC models. Finally, Granger causality tests are performed in the different restricted/unrestricted VEC models to test for sector wage leadership. The empirical results indicate considerable adaptability in wages as between manufacturing, construction, the wholesale and retail trade, the central government sector and the municipalities and county councils sector. This is consistent with the assumptions of the Scandinavian model. Further, the empirical results indicate a low level of adaptability in wages as between the financial sector and manufacturing, and between the financial sector and the two public sectors. The Granger causality tests provide strong evidence for the presence of intersectoral wage causality, but no evidence of a wage-leading role in line with the assumptions of the Scandinavian model for any of the sectors. Study IIIWage and Price Determination in the Private Sector in Sweden The purpose of this study is to analyse wage and price determination in the private sector in Sweden during the period 1980–2003. The theoretical background is a variant of the “Imperfect competition model of inflation”, which assumes imperfect competition in the labour and product markets. According to the model wages and prices are determined as a result of a “battle of mark-ups” between trade unions and firms. The Johansen maximum likelihood cointegration approach is applied to quarterly Swedish data on consumer prices, import prices, private-sector nominal wages, private-sector labour productivity and the total unemployment rate for the period 1980:1–2003:3. The chosen cointegration rank of the estimated vector error correction (VEC) model is two. Thus, two cointegration relations are assumed: one for private-sector nominal wage determination and one for consumer price determination. The estimation results indicate that an increase of consumer prices by one per cent lifts private-sector nominal wages by 0.8 per cent. Furthermore, an increase of private-sector nominal wages by one per cent increases consumer prices by one per cent. An increase of one percentage point in the total unemployment rate reduces private-sector nominal wages by about 4.5 per cent. The long-run effects of private-sector labour productivity and import prices on consumer prices are about –1.2 and 0.3 per cent, respectively. The Rehnberg agreement during 1991–92 and the monetary policy shift in 1993 affected the determination of private-sector nominal wages, private-sector labour productivity, import prices and the total unemployment rate. The “offensive” devaluation of the Swedish krona by 16 per cent in 1982:4, and the start of a floating Swedish krona and the substantial depreciation of the krona at this time affected the determination of import prices.

Essays in Macroecometrics: methodological aspects and empirical applications

In the first chapter, I develop a panel no-cointegration test which extends Pesaran, Shin and Smith (2001)'s bounds test to the panel framework by considering the individual regressions in a Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) system. This allows to take into account unobserved common factors that contemporaneously affect all the units of the panel and provides, at the same time, unit-specific test statistics. Moreover, the approach is particularly suited when the number of individuals of the panel is small relatively to the number of time series observations. I develop the algorithm to implement the test and I use Monte Carlo simulation to analyze the properties of the test. The small sample properties of the test are remarkable, compared to its single equation counterpart. I illustrate the use of the test through a test of Purchasing Power Parity in a panel of EU15 countries. In the second chapter of my PhD thesis, I verify the Expectation Hypothesis of the Term Structure in the repurchasing agreements (repo) market with a new testing approach. I consider an "inexact" formulation of the EHTS, which models a time-varying component in the risk premia and I treat the interest rates as a non-stationary cointegrated system. The effect of the heteroskedasticity is controlled by means of testing procedures (bootstrap and heteroskedasticity correction) which are robust to variance and covariance shifts over time. I fi#nd that the long-run implications of EHTS are verified. A rolling window analysis clarifies that the EHTS is only rejected in periods of turbulence of #financial markets. The third chapter introduces the Stata command "bootrank" which implements the bootstrap likelihood ratio rank test algorithm developed by Cavaliere et al. (2012). The command is illustrated through an empirical application on the term structure of interest rates in the US.

Daily monetary impulses and security prices

This paper uses Swiss data to study the real long-run effects of monetary policy. Daily unexpected changes in the monetary base are found to be negatively correlated with security price changes. This result is unaffected when, implicitly following Geske and Roll (1983), we try to measure the autonomous component of monetary policy by taking into account a reaction function of monetary policy to changes in real variables.

Measuring Dependency Ratios using National Transfer Accounts. CEPS Working Document No. 420/April 2016

It is now widely recognised that the socio-economic changes that ageing societies will bring about are poorly captured by the traditional demographic dependency ratios (DDRs), such as the old-age dependency ratio that relates the number of people aged 65+ to the working-age population. Future older generations will have increasingly better health and are likely to work longer. By combining population projections and National Transfer Accounts (NTA) data for seven European countries, we project the quantitative impact of ageing on public finances until 2040 and compare it to projected DDRs. We then simulate the public finance impact of changes in three key indicators related to the policy responses to population ageing: net immigration, healthy ageing and longer working lives. We do this by linking age-specific public health transfers and labour market participation rates to changes in mortality. Four main findings emerge: first, the simple old-age dependency ratio overestimates the future public finance challenges faced by the countries studied – significantly so for some countries, e.g. Austria, Finland and Hungary. Second, healthy ageing has a modest effect (on public finances) except in the case of Sweden, where it is substantial. Third, the long-run effect of immigration is well captured by the simple DDR measure if immigrants are similar to the native population. Finally, increasing the length of working lives is central to addressing the public finance challenge of ageing. Extending the length of working lives by three to four years over the next 25 years – equivalent to the increase in life expectancy – severely limits the impact of ageing on public transfers.

Modeling foreign exchange rate pass-through using the exponential GARCH

In this chapter, the authors use an EGARCH-ECM to estimate the pass-through effects of Foreign Exchange (FX) rate changes and changes in producers' prices for 20 U.K. export sectors. The long-run adjustments of export prices to FX rate changes and changes in producers' prices are within the range of -1.02% (for the Textiles sector) and -17.22% (for the Meat sector). The contemporaneous Pricing-To-Market (PTM) coefficients are within the range of -72.84% (for the Fuels sector) and -8.05% (for the Textiles sector). Short-run FX rate pass-through is not complete even after several months. Rolling EGARCH-ECMs show that the short and long-run effects of changes in FX rate and producers' prices vary substantially, as do asymmetry and volatility estimates before equilibrium is achieved.

Pricing-to-market using EGARCH-error correction model

In this paper, the authors use an exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (EGARCH) error-correction model (ECM), that is, EGARCH-ECM, to estimate the pass-through effects of foreign exchange (FX) rates and producers’ prices for 20 U.K. export sectors. The long-run adjustment of export prices to FX rates and producers’ prices is within the range of -1.02% (for the Textiles sector) and -17.22% (for the Meat sector). The contemporaneous pricing-to-market (PTM) coefficient is within the range of -72.84% (for the Fuels sector) and -8.05% (for the Textiles sector). Short-run FX rate pass-through is not complete even after several months. Rolling EGARCH-ECMs show that the short and long-run effects of FX rate and producers’ prices fluctuate substantially as are asymmetry and volatility estimates before equilibrium is achieved.

A Cauchy Integral Related to a Robot-safety Device System

We introduce a robot-safety device system attended by two different repairmen. The twin system is characterized by the natural feature of cold standby and by an admissible “risky” state. In order to analyse the random behaviour of the entire system (robot, safety device, repair facility) we employ a stochastic process endowed with probability measures satisfying general Hokstad-type differential equations. The solution procedure is based on the theory of sectionally holomorphic functions, characterized by a Cauchy-type integral defined as a Cauchy principal value in double sense. An application of the Sokhotski-Plemelj formulae determines the long-run availability of the robot-safety device. Finally, we consider the particular but important case of deterministic repair.

Can intellectual property rights impact directly on productivity: a case study in manufacturing industries

According to the institutional economics thesis the role of IPRs is one of the relevant determinants of economic growth in long run. Measures of IPRs have been limited and empirical studies have not been able to evaluate their impacts on productivity growth. The major conclusion that the author can be drawn from his estimations is that the extent to which patent rights and trademarks, ceteris paribus, positively correlated with output per capita depends on the intensity of technology.

Debt-growth linkages in EMU across countries and time horizons

This paper contributes to the literature by empirically examining whether the influence of public debt on economic growth differs between the short and the long run and presents different patterns across euro-area countries. To this end, we use annual data from both central and peripheral countries of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) for the 1960-2012 period and estimate a growth model augmented for public debt using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach. Our findings tend to support the view that public debt always has a negative impact on the long-run performance of EMU countries, whilst its short-run effect may be positive depending on the country.