SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELING AS A QUANTITATIVE-QUALITATIVE FRAMEWORK FOR SUSTAINABLE WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT: INSIGHTS FOR WATER QUALITY POLICY IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION

Early water resources modeling efforts were aimed mostly at representing hydrologic processes, but the need for interdisciplinary studies has led to increasing complexity and integration of environmental, social, and economic functions. The gradual shift from merely employing engineering-based simulation models to applying more holistic frameworks is an indicator of promising changes in the traditional paradigm for the application of water resources models, supporting more sustainable management decisions. This dissertation contributes to application of a quantitative-qualitative framework for sustainable water resources management using system dynamics simulation, as well as environmental systems analysis techniques to provide insights for water quality management in the Great Lakes basin. The traditional linear thinking paradigm lacks the mental and organizational framework for sustainable development trajectories, and may lead to quick-fix solutions that fail to address key drivers of water resources problems. To facilitate holistic analysis of water resources systems, systems thinking seeks to understand interactions among the subsystems. System dynamics provides a suitable framework for operationalizing systems thinking and its application to water resources problems by offering useful qualitative tools such as causal loop diagrams (CLD), stock-and-flow diagrams (SFD), and system archetypes. The approach provides a high-level quantitative-qualitative modeling framework for "big-picture" understanding of water resources systems, stakeholder participation, policy analysis, and strategic decision making. While quantitative modeling using extensive computer simulations and optimization is still very important and needed for policy screening, qualitative system dynamics models can improve understanding of general trends and the root causes of problems, and thus promote sustainable water resources decision making. Within the system dynamics framework, a growth and underinvestment (G&U) system archetype governing Lake Allegan's eutrophication problem was hypothesized to explain the system's problematic behavior and identify policy leverage points for mitigation. A system dynamics simulation model was developed to characterize the lake's recovery from its hypereutrophic state and assess a number of proposed total maximum daily load (TMDL) reduction policies, including phosphorus load reductions from point sources (PS) and non-point sources (NPS). It was shown that, for a TMDL plan to be effective, it should be considered a component of a continuous sustainability process, which considers the functionality of dynamic feedback relationships between socio-economic growth, land use change, and environmental conditions. Furthermore, a high-level simulation-optimization framework was developed to guide watershed scale BMP implementation in the Kalamazoo watershed. Agricultural BMPs should be given priority in the watershed in order to facilitate cost-efficient attainment of the Lake Allegan's TP concentration target. However, without adequate support policies, agricultural BMP implementation may adversely affect the agricultural producers. Results from a case study of the Maumee River basin show that coordinated BMP implementation across upstream and downstream watersheds can significantly improve cost efficiency of TP load abatement.

Hybrid power system intelligent operation and protection involving plug-in electric vehicles

Two key solutions to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions and increase the overall energy efficiency are to maximize the utilization of renewable energy resources (RERs) to generate energy for load consumption and to shift to low or zero emission plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) for transportation. The present U.S. aging and overburdened power grid infrastructure is under a tremendous pressure to handle the issues involved in penetration of RERS and PEVs. The future power grid should be designed with for the effective utilization of distributed RERs and distributed generations to intelligently respond to varying customer demand including PEVs with high level of security, stability and reliability. This dissertation develops and verifies such a hybrid AC-DC power system. The system will operate in a distributed manner incorporating multiple components in both AC and DC styles and work in both grid-connected and islanding modes. ^ The verification was performed on a laboratory-based hybrid AC-DC power system testbed as hardware/software platform. In this system, RERs emulators together with their maximum power point tracking technology and power electronics converters were designed to test different energy harvesting algorithms. The Energy storage devices including lithium-ion batteries and ultra-capacitors were used to optimize the performance of the hybrid power system. A lithium-ion battery smart energy management system with thermal and state of charge self-balancing was proposed to protect the energy storage system. A grid connected DC PEVs parking garage emulator, with five lithium-ion batteries was also designed with the smart charging functions that can emulate the future vehicle-to-grid (V2G), vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) and vehicle-to-house (V2H) services. This includes grid voltage and frequency regulations, spinning reserves, micro grid islanding detection and energy resource support. ^ The results show successful integration of the developed techniques for control and energy management of future hybrid AC-DC power systems with high penetration of RERs and PEVs.^

Safe operation of transmission system considering EV at distribution level

In this paper, the IEEE 14 bus test system is used in order to perform adequacy assessment of a transmission system when large scale integration of electric vehicles is considered at distribution levels. In this framework, the symmetric/constr ained fuzzy power flow (SFPF/CFPF) was proposed. The SFPF/CFPF models are suitable to quantify the adequacy of transmission network to satisfy “reasonable demands for the transmission of electricity” as defined, for instance, in the European Directive 2009/72/EC. In this framework, electric vehicles of different types will be treated as fuzzy loads configuring part of the “reasonable demands”. With this study, it is also intended to show how to evaluate the amount of EVs that can be safely accommodated to the grid meeting a certain adequacy level.

A NEW DC UPS FOR DC POWER DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM IN DATA CENTER

In recent years, the 380V DC and 48V DC distribution systems have been extensively studied for the latest data centers. It is widely believed that the 380V DC system is a very promising candidate because of its lower cable cost compared to the 48V DC system. However, previous studies have not adequately addressed the low reliability issue with the 380V DC systems due to large amount of series connected batteries. In this thesis, a quantitative comparison for the two systems has been presented in terms of efficiency, reliability and cost. A new multi-port DC UPS with both high voltage output and low voltage output is proposed. When utility ac is available, it delivers power to the load through its high voltage output and charges the battery through its low voltage output. When utility ac is off, it boosts the low battery voltage and delivers power to the load form the battery. Thus, the advantages of both systems are combined and the disadvantages of them are avoided. High efficiency is also achieved as only one converter is working in either situation. Details about the design and analysis of the new UPS are presented. For the main AC-DC part of the new UPS, a novel bridgeless three-level single-stage AC-DC converter is proposed. It eliminates the auxiliary circuit for balancing the capacitor voltages and the two bridge rectifier diodes in previous topology. Zero voltage switching, high power factor, and low component stresses are achieved with this topology. Compared to previous topologies, the proposed converter has a lower cost, higher reliability, and higher efficiency. The steady state operation of the converter is analyzed and a decoupled model is proposed for the converter. For the battery side converter as a part of the new UPS, a ZVS bidirectional DC-DC converter based on self-sustained oscillation control is proposed. Frequency control is used to ensure the ZVS operation of all four switches and phase shift control is employed to regulate the converter output power. Detailed analysis of the steady state operation and design of the converter are presented. Theoretical, simulation, and experimental results are presented to verify the effectiveness of the proposed concepts.

Novel efficient technologies in Europe for axle bearing condition monitoring – the MAXBE project

Axle bearing damage with possible catastrophic failures can cause severe disruptions or even dangerous derailments, potentially causing loss of human life and leading to significant costs for railway infrastructure managers and rolling stock operators. Consequently the axle bearing damage process has safety and economic implications on the exploitation of railways systems. Therefore it has been the object of intense attention by railway authorities as proved by the selection of this topic by the European Commission in calls for research proposals. The MAXBE Project (http://www.maxbeproject.eu/), an EU-funded project, appears in this context and its main goal is to develop and to demonstrate innovative and efficient technologies which can be used for the onboard and wayside condition monitoring of axle bearings. The MAXBE (interoperable monitoring, diagnosis and maintenance strategies for axle bearings) project focuses on detecting axle bearing failure modes at an early stage by combining new and existing monitoring techniques and on characterizing the axle bearing degradation process. The consortium for the MAXBE project comprises 18 partners from 8 member states, representing operators, railway administrations, axle bearing manufactures, key players in the railway community and experts in the field of monitoring, maintenance and rolling stock. The University of Porto is coordinating this research project that kicked-off in November 2012 and it is completed on October 2015. Both on-board and wayside systems are explored in the project since there is a need for defining the requirement for the onboard equipment and the range of working temperatures of the axle bearing for the wayside systems. The developed monitoring systems consider strain gauges, high frequency accelerometers, temperature sensors and acoustic emission. To get a robust technology to support the decision making of the responsible stakeholders synchronized measurements from onboard and wayside monitoring systems are integrated into a platform. Also extensive laboratory tests were performed to correlate the in situ measurements to the status of the axle bearing life. With the MAXBE project concept it will be possible: to contribute to detect at an early stage axle bearing failures; to create conditions for the operational and technical integration of axle bearing monitoring and maintenance in different European railway networks; to contribute to the standardization of the requirements for the axle bearing monitoring, diagnosis and maintenance. Demonstration of the developed condition monitoring systems was performed in Portugal in the Northern Railway Line with freight and passenger traffic with a maximum speed of 220 km/h, in Belgium in a tram line and in the UK. Still within the project, a tool for optimal maintenance scheduling and a smart diagnostic tool were developed. This paper presents a synthesis of the most relevant results attained in the project. The successful of the project and the developed solutions have positive impact on the reliability, availability, maintainability and safety of rolling stock and infrastructure with main focus on the axle bearing health.

Effects of large dynamic loads on power system stability

This paper investigates the critical parameters of power systems which affect the stability of the system. The analysis is conducted on both a single machine infinite bus (SMIB) system and a large multimachinesystem with dynamic loads. To further investigate the effects of dynamic loads on power system stability, the effectiveness of conventional as well as modern linear controllers is tested and compared with thevariation of loads. The effectiveness is assessed based on the damping of the dominant mode and the analysis in this paper highlights the fact that the dynamic load has substantial effect on the dampingof the system.

Non-intrusive load monitoring approaches for disaggregated energy sensing: a survey.

Appliance Load Monitoring (ALM) is essential for energy management solutions, allowing them to obtain appliance-specific energy consumption statistics that can further be used to devise load scheduling strategies for optimal energy utilization. Fine-grained energy monitoring can be achieved by deploying smart power outlets on every device of interest; however it incurs extra hardware cost and installation complexity. Non-Intrusive Load Monitoring (NILM) is an attractive method for energy disaggregation, as it can discern devices from the aggregated data acquired from a single point of measurement. This paper provides a comprehensive overview of NILM system and its associated methods and techniques used for disaggregated energy sensing. We review the state-of-the art load signatures and disaggregation algorithms used for appliance recognition and highlight challenges and future research directions.

Integration of electric vehicles for load frequency output feedback H ∞ control of smart grids

This study considers a novel application of electric vehicles (EVs) to quickly help reheated thermal turbine units to provide the stability fluctuated by load demands. A mathematical model of a power system with EVs is first derived. This model contains the dynamic interactions of EVs and multiple network-induced time delays. Then, a dynamic output feedback H∞ controller for load frequency control of power systems with multiple time delays in the control input is proposed. To address the multiple time delays issue, a refined Jensen-based inequality, which encompasses the Jensen inequality, is used to derive less conservative synthesis conditions in terms of tractable linear matrix inequalities. A procedure is given to parameterise an output feedback controller to guarantee stability and H∞ performance of the closed-loop system. Extensive simulations are conducted to validate the proposed control method.

Automatic generation control of multigeneration power system

Load frequency Control (LFC) is used for many years as part of Automatic Generation Control (AGC) in power system around the world. In a mixed power system, it is usual to find an area regulated by hydro generation interconnected to another area regulated by thermal generation or in combination of both. In the following study, performance of AGC for Thermal, Hydro and Thermal turbine based power system is examined, including how frequency bias setting influences AGC responseand inadvertent interchange. Control performance analysis of three area interconnected systems is simulated and studied through Matlab Simulink software. Integral square error and Integral time absolute error has been used as performance criterion. It is shown that integral timeabsolute error (ITAE) as performance index leads to faster optimization of controller gain.

A novel operation and control strategy for a standalone hybrid renewable power system

This paper proposes a novel operation and control strategy for a renewable hybrid power system for a standalone operation. The proposed hybrid system consists of a wind turbine, a fuel cell, an electrolyzer, a battery storage unit, and a set of loads. The overall control strategy is based on a two-level structure. The top level is the energy management and power regulation system. Depending on wind and load conditions, this system generates reference dynamic operating points to low level individual subsystems. The energy management and power regulation system also controls the load scheduling operation during unfavorable wind conditions under inadequate energy storage in order to avoid a system blackout. Based on the reference dynamic operating points of the individual subsystems, the local controllers control the wind turbine, fuel cell, electrolyzer, and battery storage units. The proposed control system is implemented in MATLAB Simpower software and tested for various wind and load conditions. Results are presented and discussed.

Assessments of training load in elite youth soccer

One of the most popular sports globally, soccer has seen a rise in the demands of the game over recent years. An increase in intensity and playing demands, coupled with growing social and economic pressures on soccer players means that optimal preparation is of paramount importance. Recent research has found the modern game, depending on positional role, to consist of approximately 60% more sprint distance in the English Premier League, which was also found to be the case for frequency and success of discrete technical actions (Bush et al., 2015). As a result, the focus on soccer training and player preparedness is becoming more prevalent in scientific research. By designing the appropriate training load, and thus periodization strategies, the aim is to achieve peak fitness in the most efficient way, whilst minimising the risk of injury and illness. Traditionally, training intensity has been based on heart rate responses, however, the emergence of tracking microtechnology such as global positioning system (GPS) and inertial sensors are now able to further quantify biomechanical load as well as physiological stress. Detailed pictures of internal and external loading indices such as these then combine to produce a more holistic view of training load experience by the player during typical drills and phases of training in soccer. The premise of this research is to gain greater understanding of the physical demands of common training methodologies in elite soccer to support optimal match performance. The coaching process may then benefit from being able to prescribe the most effective training to support these. The first experimental chapter in this thesis began by quantify gross training loads of the pre-season and in-season phases in soccer. A broader picture of the training loads inherent in these distinct phases brought more detail as to the type and extent of external loading experienced by soccer players at these times, and how the inclusion of match play influences weekly training rhythms. Training volume (total distance) was found to be high at the start compared to the end of pre-season (37 kilometres and 28 kilometres), where high cardiovascular loads were attained as part of the conditioning focus. This progressed transiently, however, to involve higher-speed, acceleration and change-of-direction stimuli at the end of pre-season compared to the start and to that in-season (1.18 kilometres, 0.70 kilometres and 0.42 kilometres high-intensity running; with 37, 25 and 23 accelerations >3m/s2 respectively) . The decrease in volume and increase in maximal anaerobic activity was evident in the training focus as friendly matches were introduced before the competitive season. The influence of match-play as being a large physical dose in the training week may then determine the change in weekly periodisation and how resulting training loads applied and tapered, if necessary. The focus of research was then directed more specifically to the most common mode of training in soccer, that also featured regularly in the pre-season period in the present study, small-sided games (SSG). The subsequent studies examined numerous manipulations of this specific form of soccer conditioning, such as player numbers as well as absolute and relative playing space available. In contrast to some previous literature, changing the number of players did not seem to influence training responses significantly, although playing format in the possession style brought about larger effects for heart rate (89.9%HRmax) and average velocity (7.6km/h-1). However, the following studies (Chapters 5, 6 and 7) revealed a greater influence of relative playing space available to players in SSG. The larger area at their disposal brought about greater aerobic responses (~90%HRmax), by allowing higher average and peak velocities (>25km/h-1), as well as greater distance acceleration behaviour at greater thresholds (>2.8m/s2). Furthermore, the data points towards space as being a large determinant in strategy of the player in small-sided games (SSG), subsequently shaping their movement behaviour and resulting physical responses. For example, higher average velocities in a possession format (8km/h-1) reflects higher work rate and heart rate load but makes achieving significant neuromuscular accelerations at a high level difficult given higher starting velocities prior to the most intense accelerations (4.2km/h-1). By altering space available and even through intentional numerical imbalances in team numbers, it may be easier for coaches to achieve the desired stimulus for the session or individual player, whether that is for aerobic and neuromuscular conditioning. Large effects were found for heart rate being higher in the underloaded team (85-90%HRmax) compared to the team with more players (80-85%HRmax) as well as for RPE (5AU versus 7AU). This was also apparent for meterage and therefore average velocity. It would also seem neuromuscular load through high acceleration and deceleration efforts were more pronounced with less numbers (given the need to press and close down opponents, and in a larger area relative to the number of players on the underloaded team. The peak accelerations and deceleration achieved was also higher when playing with less players (3-6.2m/s2 and 3-6.1m/s2) Having detailed ways in which to reach desired physical loading responses in common small training formats, Chapter 8 compared SSG to larger 9v9 formats with full-size 11v11 friendly matches. This enabled absolute and relative comparisons to be made and to understand the extent to which smaller training formats are able to replicate the required movements to be successful in competition. In relative terms, it was revealed that relative acceleration distance and Player Load were higher in smaller 4v4 games than match-play (1.1m.min-1 and 0.3m.min-1 >3m/s2; 16.9AU versus 12AU). Although the smallest format did not replicate the high-velocity demands of matches, the results confirmed their efficacy in providing significant neuromuscular load during the training week, which may then be supplemented by high-intensity interval running in order to gain exposure to more maximal speed work. In summary, the data presented provide valuable information from GPS and inertial sensor microtechnology which may then be used to understand training better to manipulate types of load according to physical conditioning objectives. For example, a library of resources to direct planning of drills of varying cardiovascular, neuromuscular and perceptual load can be created to give more confidence in session outcomes. Combining external and internal load data of common soccer training drills, and their application across different phases and training objectives may give coaches a powerful tool to plan and periodize training.