Understanding Uncertainties in Non-Linear Population Trajectories: A Bayesian Semi-Parametric Hierarchical Approach to Large-Scale Surveys of Coral Cover

Recently, attempts to improve decision making in species management have focussed on uncertainties associated with modelling temporal fluctuations in populations. Reducing model uncertainty is challenging; while larger samples improve estimation of species trajectories and reduce statistical errors, they typically amplify variability in observed trajectories. In particular, traditional modelling approaches aimed at estimating population trajectories usually do not account well for nonlinearities and uncertainties associated with multi-scale observations characteristic of large spatio-temporal surveys. We present a Bayesian semi-parametric hierarchical model for simultaneously quantifying uncertainties associated with model structure and parameters, and scale-specific variability over time. We estimate uncertainty across a four-tiered spatial hierarchy of coral cover from the Great Barrier Reef. Coral variability is well described; however, our results show that, in the absence of additional model specifications, conclusions regarding coral trajectories become highly uncertain when considering multiple reefs, suggesting that management should focus more at the scale of individual reefs. The approach presented facilitates the description and estimation of population trajectories and associated uncertainties when variability cannot be attributed to specific causes and origins. We argue that our model can unlock value contained in large-scale datasets, provide guidance for understanding sources of uncertainty, and support better informed decision making

"Nursing is no place for men" ― A thematic analysis of male nursing students experiences of undergraduate nursing education

Background: Surprisingly, opinion about whether men are suitable within the profession continues to be a divided issue. Men enter the profession for a multitude of reasons, yet barriers whether emotional, verbal or sexual are still present. Aim: The aim of this study was to examine the experience of men “training” to be registered nurses within a regional New Zealand context. Design: A Narrative Analysis approach was used. Participants: Five New Zealand men currently undertaking their bachelor of nursing degree at a regional tertiary institute were interviewed as to their experiences of what it meant to be a man in “training”. Method: A thematic analysis was undertaken and guided by an understanding of the way personal narratives informs the human sciences especially within the context of nursing praxis. Four key themes were identified. Results: Four key themes were identified: A career with flexibility and promise; perceived gender inequality in providing care; developing professional boundaries with female colleagues and being unique has its advantages. Conclusion: The men in this study were attracted to the profession by career stability and advancement; the opportunities for travel also figured highly. At times they felt excluded and marginalised because of their minority status within their group and the feminine nature of the curriculum. The men attempted to dispel the myth around male nurse sexual stereotypes. Some of the students behaved in a manner to exert their heterosexualness. The students in this study sensed their vulnerability in choosing nursing as a career. However, all the participants saw nursing as viable and portable career in terms of advancement and travel.

Effects of transit quality of service characteristics on daily bus ridership

This study explores how explicit transit quality of services (TQoS) measures including service frequency, service span, and travel time ratio, along with implicit environmental predictors such as topographic grade factor influence bus ridership using a case study city of Brisbane, Australia. The primary hypothesis tested was that bus ridership is higher within suburbs with high transit quality of service than suburbs that have limited service quality. Using Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) this study identifies a strong positive relationship between route intensity (bus-km/h-km2) and bus ridership, indicating that increasing both service frequency and spatial route density correspond to higher bus ridership. Additionally, travel time ratio (in-vehicle transit travel time to in-vehicle auto travel time) is also found to have significant negative association with ridership within a suburb, reflecting a decline in transit use with increased travel time ratio. Conversely, topographic grade and service span are not found to exert any significant impact on bus ridership in a suburb. Our study findings enhance the fundamental understanding of traveller behaviour which is informative to urban transportation policy, planning and provision.

Effects of transit quality of service characteristics on daily bus ridership

This study investigates whether an Australian city’s suburbs having high transit Quality of Service (QoS) are associated with higher transit ridership than those having low transit QoS •We explore how QoS measures including service frequency, service span, service coverage, and travel time ratio, along with implicit environmental predictors such as topographic grade factor influence bus ridership •We applied Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) to examine the relationship between QoS and ridership •Its outcomes enhance our understanding of transit user behavior, which is informative to urban transportation policy, planning, and provision

The Governance of human resources in the Vietnamese healthcare system: A critical analysis of maternity services

This thesis utilised mixed-methods study design to understand the factors that influence the translation and implementation of central human resources in health policy at the district and commune health levels. It provided recommendations for changes to enhance governance approaches to human resources for health policy implementation at local and national levels. This thesis has also contributed to the evolution of the theory on health staff motivation and performance through the description and testing of a new model, using data from a survey on 262 health staff and 43 in-depth interviews conducted in two northern mountainous provinces of Vietnam.

Using simplified peer review processes to fund research: A prospective study

Objective: To prospectively test two simplified peer review processes, estimate the agreement between the simplified and official processes, and compare the costs of peer review. Design, participants and setting: A prospective parallel study of Project Grant proposals submitted in 2013 to the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) of Australia. The official funding outcomes were compared with two simplified processes using proposals in Public Health and Basic Science. The two simplified processes were: panels of 7 reviewers who met face-to-face and reviewed only the nine-page research proposal and track record (simplified panel); and 2 reviewers who independently reviewed only the nine-page research proposal (journal panel). The official process used panels of 12 reviewers who met face-to-face and reviewed longer proposals of around 100 pages. We compared the funding outcomes of 72 proposals that were peer reviewed by the simplified and official processes. Main outcome measures: Agreement in funding outcomes; costs of peer review based on reviewers’ time and travel costs. Results: The agreement between the simplified and official panels (72%, 95% CI 61% to 82%), and the journal and official panels (74%, 62% to 83%), was just below the acceptable threshold of 75%. Using the simplified processes would save $A2.1–$A4.9 million per year in peer review costs. Conclusions: Using shorter applications and simpler peer review processes gave reasonable agreement with the more complex official process. Simplified processes save time and money that could be reallocated to actual research. Funding agencies should consider streamlining their application processes.

Linking business goals to process models in semantic business process modeling

Broad knowledge is required when a business process is modeled by a business analyst. We argue that existing Business Process Management methodologies do not consider business goals at the appropriate level. In this paper we present an approach to integrate business goals and business process models. We design a Business Goal Ontology for modeling business goals. Furthermore, we devise a modeling pattern for linking the goals to process models and show how the ontology can be used in query answering. In this way, we integrate the intentional perspective into our business process ontology framework, enriching the process description and enabling new types of business process analysis. © 2008 IEEE.

Transportation disadvantage impedance indexing: A methodological approach to reduce policy shortcomings

Access to transport systems and the connection to such systems provided to essential economic and social activities are critical to determine households' transportation disadvantage levels. In spite of the developments in better identifying transportation disadvantaged groups, the lack of effective policies resulted in the continuum of the issue as a significant problem. This paper undertakes a pilot case investigation as test bed for a new approach developed to reduce transportation policy shortcomings. The approach, ‘disadvantage-impedance index’, aims to ease transportation disadvantages by employing representative parameters to measure the differences between policy alternatives run in a simulation environment. Implemented in the Japanese town of Arao, the index uses trip-making behaviour and resident stated preference data. The results of the index reveal that even a slight improvement in accessibility and travel quality indicators makes a significant difference in easing disadvantages. The index, integrated into a four-step model, proves to be highly robust and useful in terms of quick diagnosis in capturing effective actions, and developing potentially efficient policies.

Disease mapping using Bayesian hierarchical models

description and analysis of geographically indexed health data with respect to demographic, environmental, behavioural, socioeconomic, genetic, and infectious risk factors (Elliott andWartenberg 2004). Disease maps can be useful for estimating relative risk; ecological analyses, incorporating area and/or individual-level covariates; or cluster analyses (Lawson 2009). As aggregated data are often more readily available, one common method of mapping disease is to aggregate the counts of disease at some geographical areal level, and present them as choropleth maps (Devesa et al. 1999; Population Health Division 2006). Therefore, this chapter will focus exclusively on methods appropriate for areal data...

Lumometsän syli : Anni Swanin satusymbolismi 1896-1923

Lumometsän syli, Anni Swanin satusymbolismi 1896-1923 on suomenkielisen satukirjallisuuden poetiikkaa ja 1900-luvun alun modernia naiseutta selvittävä feministiseen tutkimustraditioon liittyvä tutkimus. Sen kohteena ovat lasten- ja nuortenkirjailija Anni Swanin (1875-1958) satukokoelmat vuosilta 1901-1923 ja Uusi Suometar -lehden sadunomaiset novellit vuosilta 1896-1904. Tutkimus tuo uutta tietoa lastenkirjallisuuden osalta 1900-luvun alun modernin ihmisen problematiikasta. Se sisältää naissubjektin kehityskaaren ja sisäisen kasvun kohti naistaiteilijuutta. Yksityiskohtaisen tarkastelun kohteina ovat sadut Veli ja sisar (1917), Ihmekukka (1905), Marjaanan helmikruunu (1912), Aaltojen salaisuus (1901), Jääkukka (1905), Tyttö ja kuolema (1917), Merenkuningatar ja hänen poikansa (1905), Lumolinna (1905) ja Tarina Kultasirkasta (1901). Tutkimuksessa tarkastellaan Swanin satujen poeettista kieltä ja naiseuden tematiikkaa ranskalaisen postmodernin ajan feministisen viitekehyksen valossa. Siinä keskeisiä ovat Julia Kristevan psykoanalyyttispohjaiset näkemykset ja Hélène Cixous´n sekä Luce Irigarayn ajatukset feminiinisestä kirjoituksesta. Sadut kontekstualisoidaan ajankohdan symbolistiseen taidevirtaukseen ja Suomen taiteen kultakauteen. Satuja tulkitaan naiskirjailijan lajina ja erityisenä naisen metaforisen ilmaisun muotona. Satujen feministinen lukutapa purkaa perinteisiä lukemiskonventioita ja merkitsee satutekstin lukemista "toisin". Se avaa varhaista modernia naiseutta ja sille ominaista naisen ilmaisukielen erityisyyttä sekä mykkää ei-kielellistä, melankolian ilmaisua. Tutkimus tuo esiin uudenlaisen naiskirjailijan aistimusvoimaisen kielen. Swanin satusymbolismi on luonnon kauneuden synesteettista ja aistimusvoimaista kerrontaa, jolle on luonteenomaista aistiestetiikka, metaforisuus, metonymisyys ja metamorfoosit. Swan vahvistaa osaltaan naisen sankaruutta, omaa ilmaisukieltä ja ääntä. Tuloksena paljastuu satuperinteeseen verrattuna uudenlaisia tyttöyden, äitiyden, naistaiteilijuuden ja perheen malleja ja niiden representaatioita. Satumallit osoittautuvat aikanaan moderneiksi tyttösankareiksi, osin ambivalenteiksi uudenlaista naiseutta ja suhteessa oloa heijastaviksi ja ovat siten varhaisia feministisen sadun tunnusmerkkejä. Tutkimus selvittää, miten Swan rakentaa omaperäisen satusymboliikan. Satumetsä on luonnonkauniin suomalaismetsän symbolinen mielenmaisema ja samanaikaisesti sadun myyttis-symbolinen topos. Swanin luontokäsitys sisältää luonnonsuojelun ja varhaisen ekokriittisen näkemyksen. Tutkimus osoittaa Swanin satujen kytkeytyvän 1900-luvun alun modernismiin ja Suomen taiteen kultakauteen. Swan on suomenkielisen symbolistisen taidesadun kehittäjä ja feministisen sadun aloittaja.

Peronospora lamii on Lamiaceae in Australia

A detailed description and illustration of the Australian specimens of Peronospora lamii on Salvia spp. and on Lamium amplexicaule (Lamiaceae) are given.

Reflexive Incidence Matrx (RIM) Representation of Petr Nets

Although incidence matrix representation has been used to analyze the Petri net based models of a system, it has the limitation that it does not preserve reflexive properties (i.e., the presence of selfloops) of Petri nets. But in many practical applications self-loops play very important roles. This paper proposes a new representation scheme for general Petri nets. This scheme defines a matrix called "reflexive incidence matrix (RIM) c which is a combination of two matrices, a "base matrix Cb,,, and a "power matrix CP." This scheme preserves the reflexive and other properties of the Petri nets. Through a detailed analysis it is shown that the proposed scheme requires less memory space and less processing time for answering commonly encountered net queries compared to other schemes. Algorithms to generate the RIM from the given net description and to decompose RIM into input and output function matrices are also given. The proposed Petri net representation scheme is very useful to model and analyze the systems having shared resources, chemical processes, network protocols, etc., and to evaluate the performance of asynchronous concurrent systems.

Powdery mildew on Passiflora in Australia

Oidiopsis sp., the anamorph of Leveillula taurica (Erysiphaceae), is reported for the first time in Australia on Passiflora edulis, and Oidium passiflorae on Passiflora foetida. A detailed description and illustration of the specimens are given.

Identtisten ja epäidenttisten kaksosten puhe : Monotsygoottisten ja ditsygoottisten kaksosten puheen vertailua kesto-, nopeus-, tauko- ja taajuusmittauksin

This thesis presents an experimental study of the speech prosody of identical and non-identical twins. Speech fluency, pauses, speech rate, utterance length and speech frequency were examined phonetically, auditorily, semantically and statistically. The methods included both reading tasks (reading the alphabet, numerical lists, sentences with foreign loan words, holiday theme questions as well as 1.5 pages of text with long sentences and complex words) and spontaneous speech tasks (picture description and answering holiday theme questions). The subjects were Finnish-speaking 22-28-year-old female twins: 8 identical (monozygotic) and 10 non-identical (dizygotic) pairs. One pair was male-female. Comparisons were made between twin groups and between sisters. The data was regathered from four twin pairs, to make it possible to investigate some subjects intra-individually. In addition phoneticians, phonetic students and people without knowledge of phonetic science were tested in two listening experiments. The results showed that the dizygotic twins differed more from each other than monozygotic twins and that monozygotic twin sisters shared more similarities than dizygotic twin sisters. For example, between monozygotic twin sisters smaller differences were found between word count, utterance length and speech rate in spontaneous speech tasks. Dizygotic twin sisters made more different kinds of reading mistakes with the same target words than monozygotic twin sisters, while monozygotic twin sisters made more of the same reading mistakes with the same target words than dizygotic twin sisters. The listening experiments showed that only professional phoneticians were able to recognize the twin sisters. Even though the twins had the possibility to freely choose their speech rate, pausing and speech frequency, they used their own speech patterns; these included the same average speech frequency, average speech rate, type of pausing routine or filled pauses, and other speech mannerisms throughout their speech.

Erityisopetus muutoksen kynnyksellä - tilastollinen kuvaus erityisopetusjärjestelmästä ja sen määrällisestä kehityksestä 1970-luvun lopulta vuoteen 2008

The number of Finnish pupils attending special education has increased for more than a decade (Tilastokeskus 1999, 2000, 2001, 2003, 2004, 2005a, 2006b, 2007b, 2008b, 2008e, 2009b; Virtanen ja Ratilainen 1996). In the year 2007 nearly third of Finnish comprehensive school pupils took part in special needs education. According to the latest statistics, in the autumn of 2008 approximately 47 000 pupils have been admitted or transferred to special education and approximately 126 000 pupils received part-time special education during the 2007 - 2008 academic year. (Tilastokeskus 2008b, 2009b.) The Finnish special education system is currently under review. The Reform, both in legislation and in practice, began nationwide in the year 2008 (e.g. Special education strategy document, November 2007 and the development project Kelpo). The aim of the study was the statistical description of the Finnish special education system and on the other hand to gain a deeper understanding about the Finnish special education system and its quantitative increase, by analysis based on the nationwide statistical information. Earlier studies have shown that the growth in special education is affected by multiple independent variables and cannot be solely explained by the pupil characteristics. The statistical overview and analysis have been carried out in two parts. In the first part, the description and analysis were based on statistical time series from the academic year 1979 -1980 until 2008. While, in the second, more detailed description and analysis, based on comparable time series from 1995 to 2008 and from 2001-2002 to 2007-2008, is presented. Historical perspective was one part of this study. There was an attempt to find reasons explaining the observed growth in the special needs education from late 1960s to 2008. The majority of the research was based on the nationwide statistics information. In addition to this, materials including educational legislation literature, different kind of records of special education and preceding studies were also used to support the research. The main results of the study, are two statistical descriptions and time series analysis of the quantitative increase of the special needs education. Further, a summary of the plausible factors behind the special education system change and its quantitative increase, is presented. The conclusions coming from the study can be summarised as follows: the comparable statistical time series analysis suggests that the growth in special education after the year 1999 could be a consequence of the changes in the structure of special education and that new group of pupils have been directed to special needs education. Keywords: Special education, comprehensive school, description, statistics, change