884 resultados para Litmanen, Tapio: The struggle over risk
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Introduction Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is among the most important pathogens of nosocomial infections, mainly in intensive care units (ICUs), and accounts for 40-60% of all healthcare-associated S. aureus infections. We evaluated the incidence of nosocomial infection by S. aureus, identified the risk factors for MRSA infection, and evaluated the effect of resistance to methicillin on mortality in patients. Methods We conducted MRSA surveillance at a university hospital in Brazil from January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2010, and performed a retrospective case-control matched study to evaluate the frequency of subsequent MRSA bacteremia and death among patients. We evaluated and compared the risk factors between patients with MRSA and methicillin-sensitive Staphylococcus aureus (MSSA) infection. Results Sepsis was the most common cause of infection (17.7/1,000 patient-days), followed by surgical site (11.4/1,000 patient-days), pneumonia (4.1/1,000 patient-days), and urinary tract infection (2.4/1,000 patient-days). The significant risk factors were time of hospitalization, use of central vascular catheter (CVC), urinary catheter, nasogastric tube, parenteral nutrition, tracheostomy, mechanical ventilation, and previous antibiotic administration, the latter of which was the only independent risk factor for MRSA infection. Mortality was significantly higher in patients with MRSA. The number of antibiotics tested was not related to increases in the frequency of MRSA/1,000 patient-days. The incidence of mortality attributable to MRSA (bloodstream infection) BSI was 50%. Conclusions Surveillance results showed that the use of high levels of antibiotics was directly related to the development of MRSA infection, and the mortality attributable to MRSA in patients with bacteremia was significant.
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Different aspects of hepatosplenic schistosomiasis are revisited here. Manson's schistosomiasis causes periportal fibrosis and portal hypertension in approximately 6% of infected subjects, usually with preservation of their hepatic function. The assessment of liver involvement is of major importance in determining the prognosis and risk of complications from schistosomiasis, such as upper digestive bleeding secondary to variceal rupture. For many years, the diagnosis of hepatosplenic schistosomiasis and liver fibrosis was made by abdominal palpation and the finding of liver and/or spleen enlargement. However, there is no consensus regarding the clinical parameters of the liver and spleen to be considered in this physical evaluation. For the last three decades, abdominal ultrasound (US) has become the best imaging technique to evaluate liver fibrosis caused by schistosomiasis mansoni. However, US is a subjective procedure and is therefore examiner-dependent. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) findings have provided valuable information in addition to ultrasound and clinical examination. The combination of a comprehensive history and physical examination, basic laboratory tests (a stool examination for Schistosoma mansoni eggs and a blood cell count), biomarkers for liver fibrosis/portal hypertension and imaging methods seem to offer the best approach for evaluating patients with this disease. In situations where research is involved or in patients with severe disease, MRI may be considered.
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Introduction This study evaluated the level of concordance between hybrid capture II (HCII) and PapilloCheck® for the detection of high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) in anal samples. Methods Anal cell samples collected from 42 human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)+ patients were analyzed. Results Considering only the 13 high-risk HPV types that are detectable by both tests, HCII was positive for 52.3% of the samples, and PapilloCheck® was positive for 52.3%. The level of concordance was 80.9% (Kappa = 0.61). Conclusions Good concordance was observed between the tests for the detection of high-risk HPV.
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This Working Project studies five portfolios of currency carry trades formed with the G10 currencies. Performance varies among strategies and the most basic one presents the worst results. I also study the equity and Pure FX risk factors which can explain the portfolios’ returns. Equity factors do not explain these returns while the Pure FX do for some of the strategies. Downside risk measures indicate the importance of using regime indicators to avoid losses. I conclude that although using VAR and threshold regression models with a variety of regime indicators do not allow the perception of different regimes, with a defined exogenous threshold on real exchange rates, an indicator of liquidity and the volatilities of the spot exchange rates it is possible to increase the average returns and reduce drawdowns of the carry trades
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IntroductionFew studies have examined hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in Brazil, and the incidence and risk factors for this type of malignancy vary greatly geographically. In this paper, we report several risk factors associated with HCC diagnosed at the University Hospital in Vitória, ES, Brazil.MethodsWe reviewed 274 cases of HCC (January 1993 to December 2011) in which hepatitis B (HBV) and C (HCV) virus infection and chronic alcoholism were investigated. A diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma was confirmed by histology or by the presence of a characteristic pattern on imaging.ResultsHCC with associated liver cirrhosis was noted in 85.4% of cases. The mean ages of men and women were 56.6 years and 57.5 years, respectively. The male-to-female ratio was 5.8:1. Associated risk factors included the following: HBV, 37.6% (alone, 23.4%; associated with chronic alcoholism, 14.2%); HCV, 22.6% (alone, 13.5%; associated with chronic alcoholism, 9.1%), chronic alcoholism, 17.1%, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis, 2.6% and cryptogenic, 19.3%. The male-to-female ratio was higher in cases associated with HBV or chronic alcoholism compared with HCV-associated or cryptogenic cases. In 40 cases without associated cirrhosis, the male-to-female ratio and mean age were lower than those in cirrhosis-associated cases.ConclusionsThese results demonstrate that the main risk factor associated with HCC in the State of Espírito Santo is HBV. Chronic alcoholism is an important etiological factor, alone or in association with HBV or HCV infection.
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INTRODUCTION: Toxoplasma gondii infection has been described as the most widespread zoonotic infection of humans and other animals. Information concerning T. gondii infection among schoolchildren is unavailable in Lagos City, Nigeria. METHODS: This cross-sectional study investigated the seroprevalence and risk factors associated with T. gondii infection among primary schoolchildren (PSC) from a community located in the center of Lagos, southern Nigeria, from November 2013 to March 2014. A total of 382 PSC were screened for the presence of sera anti-T. gondii antibodies using a latex agglutination test (TOXO Test-MT, Tokyo, Japan). A cutoff titer of ≥ 1:32 was considered positive, while titers ≥ 1:1,024 indicated high responders. Questionnaires were also used to obtain data on possible risk factors from parents/guardians. RESULTS: The overall seroprevalence was 24% (91/382), and 83.5% (76/91) of seropositive PSC were classified as high responders. Among the risk factors tested, including contact with cats and soil, consumption of raw meat and vegetables, and drinking unboiled water, none showed statistical significance after multivariate adjustment. No associations were observed among age, gender, body mass index (BMI), and parents' occupation/educational level. CONCLUSIONS: The findings in this study show evidence of active infection, and hence, there is need for urgent preventive measures in this city. Further investigation is required to clarify the transmission routes. Policy makers also need to initiate prevention and control programs to protect pregnant women and immunocompromised patients in particular because they are more severely affected by T. gondii infection.
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The treatment of malignant or benign colorectal pathologies that require more complex management are priorities in tertiary hospitals such as "Hospital das Clínicas" University of São Paulo Medical Center (HCFMUSP). Therefore, benign, uncomplicated orifice conditions are relegated to second place. The number of patients with hemorrhoids, perianal fistulas, fissures, condylomas and pilonidal cysts who seek treatment at the HFMUSP is very great, resulting in over-crowding in the outpatient clinics and a long waiting list for recommended surgical treatment (at times over 18 months). The authors describe the experience of the HCFMUSP over an eight-day period with day-hospital surgery in which 140 patients underwent surgery. Data was prospectively taken on the patients undergoing surgery for benign orifice pathologies including age, sex, diagnosis, surgery performed, immediate and late postoperative complications, and follow-up. 140 patients operated on over eight days were studied. 68 were males (48.75%) with ages ranging from 25 to 62 (mean 35.2 yrs.). Hemorrhoids was the most frequent condition encountered (82 hemorrhoidectomies, 58.6%), followed by perineal fistula (28 fistula repairs, 20.0%). The most common complication was headache secondary to rachianesthesia occurring in 9 patients (6.4%). One patient (0.7%) developed bleeding immediately PO that required reoperation. Mean follow-up was 104 days. Day-surgery characterized by quality care and low morbidity is feasible in tertiary public hospitals, permitting surgery for benign orifice pathologies on many patients within a short period of time.
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OBJECTIVE: To analyze the correlation of risk factors to the occurrence of urinary tract infection in full-term newborn infants. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Retrospective study (1997) including full-term infants having a positive urine culture by bag specimen. Urine collection was based on: fever, weight loss > 10% of birth weight, nonspecific symptoms (feeding intolerance, failure to thrive, hypoactivity, debilitate suction, irritability), or renal and urinary tract malformations. In these cases, another urine culture by suprapubic bladder aspiration was collected to confirm the diagnosis. To compare and validate the risk factors in each group, the selected cases were divided into two groups: Group I - positive urine culture by bag specimen collection and negative urine culture by suprapubic aspiration, and Group II - positive urine culture by bag specimen collection and positive urine culture by suprapubic aspiration . RESULTS: Sixty one infants were studied, Group I, n = 42 (68.9%) and Group II, n = 19 (31.1%). The selected risk factors (associated infectious diseases, use of broad-spectrum antibiotics, renal and urinary tract malformations, mechanical ventilation, parenteral nutrition and intravascular catheter) were more frequent in Group II (p<0.05). Through relative risk analysis, risk factors were, in decreasing importance: parenteral nutrition, intravascular catheter, associated infectious diseases, use of broad-spectrum antibiotics, mechanical ventilation, and renal and urinary tract malformations. CONCLUSION: The results showed that parenteral nutrition, intravascular catheter, and associated infectious diseases contributed to increase the frequency of neonatal urinary tract infection, and in the presence of more than one risk factor, the occurrence of urinary tract infection rose up to 11 times.
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Nowadays manufacturing companies are facing a more challenging environment due to the unpredictability of the markets in order to survive. Enterprises need to keep innovating and deliver products with new internal or external characteristics. There are strategies and solutions, to different organisational level from strategic to operational, when technology is growing faster in operational level, more specifically in manufacturing system. This means that companies have to deal with the changes of the emergent manufacturing systems while it can be expensive and not easy to be implement. An agile manufacturing system can help to cope with the markets changeability. Evolvable Production Systems (EPS) is an emergent paradigm which aims to bring new solutions to deal with changeability. The proposed paradigm is characterised by modularity and intends to introduce high flexibility and dynamism at shop floor level through the use of the evolution of new computational devices and technology. This new approach brings to enterprises the ability to plug and unplug new devices and allowing fast reformulation of the production line without reprogramming. There is no doubt about the advantages and benefits of this emerging technology but the feasibility and applicability is still under questioned. Most researches in this area are focused on technical side, explaining the advantages of those systems while there are no sufficient works discussing the implementation risks from different perspective, including business owner. The main objective of this work is to propose a methodology and model to identify, classify and measure potential risk associated with an implementation of this emergent paradigm. To quantify the proposed comprehensive risk model, an Intelligent Decision system is developed employing Fuzzy Inference System to deal with the knowledge of experts, as there are no historical data and sufficient research on this area. The result can be the vulnerability assessment of implementing EPS technology in manufacturing companies when the focus is more on SMEs. The present dissertation used the experts’ knowledge and experiences, who were involved in FP7 project IDEAS, which is one of the leading projects in this area.
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Necrotizing enterocolitis is the most frequently occurring gastrointestinal disorder in premature neonates. Animal models of necrotizing enterocolitis and prenatal administration of cortisone have demonstrated that cortisone may accelerate maturation of the mucosal barrier, therefore reducing the incidence of this gastrointestinal disorder. The authors present a review of the literature of the most important risk factors associated with necrotizing enterocolitis, such as inflammatory gastrointestinal mediators, enteral feeding and bacterial colonization, and immaturity of the gastrointestinal barrier, and we emphasize the necessity for additional studies to explore the prenatal administration of cortisone as a preventive strategy for necrotizing enterocolitis.
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This work studies fuel retail firms’ strategic behavior in a two-dimensional product differentiation framework. Following the mandatory provision of “low-cost” fuel we consider that capacity constraints force firms to eliminate of one the previously offered qualities. Firms play a two-stage game choosing fuel qualities from three possibilities (low-cost, medium quality and high quality fuel) and then prices having exogenous opposite locations. In the highest level of consumers’ heterogeneity, a subgame perfect Nash equilibrium exists in which firms both choose minimum quality differentiation. Consumers’ are worse off if no differentiation occurs in medium and high qualities. The effect over prices from the mandatory “low-cost” fuel law is ambiguous.
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The momentum and carry anomalies have been extensively documented in the literature. However, there are still many issues relating to the risks associated to them that are left unexplained. One is the fact that an investor holds for too long the most volatile assets, both under momentum and carry strategies. Therefore, they present a level of risk and a probability of extreme events to happen inconsistent. This work project hypothesizes and proves the introduction of risk parity rules on the weights of the portfolios do increase risk rewarding of carry strategies. However, it fails under momentum strategies.
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Since the financial crisis, risk based portfolio allocations have gained a great deal in popularity. This increase in popularity is primarily due to the fact that they make no assumptions as to the expected return of the assets in the portfolio. These portfolios implicitly put risk management at the heart of asset allocation and thus their recent appeal. This paper will serve as a comparison of four well-known risk based portfolio allocation methods; minimum variance, maximum diversification, inverse volatility and equally weighted risk contribution. Empirical backtests will be performed throughout rising interest rate periods from 1953 to 2015. Additionally, I will compare these portfolios to more simple allocation methods, such as equally weighted and a 60/40 asset-allocation mix. This paper will help to answer the question if these portfolios can survive in a rising interest rate environment.
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This master thesis has been developed during the internship in the Supervision Department of Supervision of the Intermediation and Market Structures of CMVM. My collaboration in such department was mainly focused on the derivatives market of the Iberian Electricity Market (MIBEL). MIBEL embodies two organized markets – the derivatives market in Portugal and the spot market in Spain The trading activity in the derivatives market of MIBEL is processed through the trading platform of the regulated market managed by OMIP, however, much of the negotiation is over-the-counter. The aim of this work is to describe the market from a legal and economic perspective and to analyse the evolution of the negotiation, namely the impact of OTC in the regulated market trading. To achieve this, I propose to analyse also MiFID and EMIR rules over derivative contracts and the role of central counterparties, as they both are important to the discussion. In parallel, we found that OTC transactions are considerably higher than those traded in the regulated market managed by OMIP, those findings can be justified by the contractual relationships based on trust already established between the partiesarties. Nevertheless, since 2011 this trend changed by an increase of the registered OTC. Thereafter, although the parties continued to trade bilaterally, these transactions were registered in a central counterparty in order to eliminate the inherent risks related to the OTC derivatives transactions. This change in the negotiation pattern may also be influenced by the mandatory reporting of transactions imposed by EMIR, that requires for some classes of derivatives the centralized clearing and for all other requires the implementation of risk mitigation techniques.
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The occupational risks in the nanotechnology research laboratories are an important topic since a great number of researchers are involved in this area. The risk assessment performed by both qualitative and quantitative methods is a necessary step for the management of the occupational risks. Risk assessment could be performed by qualitative methods that gather consensus in the scientific community. It is also possible to use quantitative methods, based in different technics and metrics, as indicative exposure limits are been settled by several institutions. While performing the risk assessment, the information on the materials used is very important and, if it is not updated, it could create a bias in the assessment results. The exposure to TiO2 nanoparticles risk was assessed in a research laboratory using a quantitative exposure method and qualitative risk assessment methods. It was found the results from direct-reading Condensation Particle Counter (CPC) equipment and the CB Nanotool seem to be related and aligned, while the results obtained from the use of the Stoffenmanager Nano seem to indicate a higher risk level.