On Bayesian predictive modeling : with applications on the analysis of chromatography data in forensic investigations

Med prediktion avses att man skattar det framtida värdet på en observerbar storhet. Kännetecknande för det bayesianska paradigmet är att osäkerhet gällande okända storheter uttrycks i form av sannolikheter. En bayesiansk prediktiv modell är således en sannolikhetsfördelning över de möjliga värden som en observerbar, men ännu inte observerad storhet kan anta. I de artiklar som ingår i avhandlingen utvecklas metoder, vilka bl.a. tillämpas i analys av kromatografiska data i brottsutredningar. Med undantag för den första artikeln, bygger samtliga metoder på bayesiansk prediktiv modellering. I artiklarna betraktas i huvudsak tre olika typer av problem relaterade till kromatografiska data: kvantifiering, parvis matchning och klustring. I den första artikeln utvecklas en icke-parametrisk modell för mätfel av kromatografiska analyser av alkoholhalt i blodet. I den andra artikeln utvecklas en prediktiv inferensmetod för jämförelse av två stickprov. Metoden tillämpas i den tredje artik eln för jämförelse av oljeprover i syfte att kunna identifiera den förorenande källan i samband med oljeutsläpp. I den fjärde artikeln härleds en prediktiv modell för klustring av data av blandad diskret och kontinuerlig typ, vilken bl.a. tillämpas i klassificering av amfetaminprover med avseende på produktionsomgångar.

Linear prediction in optical spectroscopy

A linear prediction procedure is one of the approved numerical methods of signal processing. In the field of optical spectroscopy it is used mainly for extrapolation known parts of an optical signal in order to obtain a longer one or deduce missing signal samples. The first is needed particularly when narrowing spectral lines for the purpose of spectral information extraction. In the present paper the coherent anti-Stokes Raman scattering (CARS) spectra were under investigation. The spectra were significantly distorted by the presence of nonlinear nonresonant background. In addition, line shapes were far from Gaussian/Lorentz profiles. To overcome these disadvantages the maximum entropy method (MEM) for phase spectrum retrieval was used. The obtained broad MEM spectra were further underwent the linear prediction analysis in order to be narrowed.

Using the best linear predictor (BLP) in the selection between and among half-sib progenies of the CMS-39 maize population

Data of corn ear production (kg/ha) of 196 half-sib progenies (HSP) of the maize population CMS-39 obtained from experiments carried out in four environments were used to adapt and assess the BLP method (best linear predictor) in comparison with to the selection among and within half-sib progenies (SAWHSP). The 196 HSP of the CMS-39 population developed by the National Center for Maize and Sorghum Research (CNPMS-EMBRAPA) were related through their pedigree with the recombined progenies of the previous selection cycle. The two methodologies used for the selection of the twenty best half-sib progenies, BLP and SAWHSP, led to similar expected genetic gains. There was a tendency in the BLP methodology to select a greater number of related progenies because of the previous generation (pedigree) than the other method. This implies that greater care with the effective size of the population must be taken with this method. The SAWHSP methodology was efficient in isolating the additive genetic variance component from the phenotypic component. The pedigree system, although unnecessary for the routine use of the SAWHSP methodology, allowed the prediction of an increase in the inbreeding of the population in the long term SAWHSP selection when recombination is simultaneous to creation of new progenies.

A 37-kb restriction map of the human immunoglobulin lambda variable locus, VB cluster, harboring four functional genes and two non-coding Vl sequences

The human immunoglobulin lambda variable locus (IGLV) is mapped at chromosome 22 band q11.1-q11.2. The 30 functional germline v-lambda genes sequenced untill now have been subgrouped into 10 families (Vl1 to Vl10). The number of Vl genes has been estimated at approximately 70. This locus is formed by three gene clusters (VA, VB and VC) that encompass the variable coding genes (V) responsible for the synthesis of lambda-type Ig light chains, and the Jl-Cl cluster with the joining segments and the constant genes. Recently the entire variable lambda gene locus was mapped by contig methodology and its one- megabase DNA totally sequenced. All the known functional V-lambda genes and pseudogenes were located. We screened a human genomic DNA cosmid library and isolated a clone with an insert of 37 kb (cosmid 8.3) encompassing four functional genes (IGLV7S1, IGLV1S1, IGLV1S2 and IGLV5a), a pseudogene (VlA) and a vestigial sequence (vg1) to study in detail the positions of the restriction sites surrounding the Vl genes. We generated a high resolution restriction map, locating 31 restriction sites in 37 kb of the VB cluster, a region rich in functional Vl genes. This mapping information opens the perspective for further RFLP studies and sequencing

A novel polymorphism in the coding region of the vasopressin type 2 receptor gene

Nephrogenic diabetes insipidus (NDI) is a rare disease characterized by renal inability to respond properly to arginine vasopressin due to mutations in the vasopressin type 2 receptor (V2(R)) gene in affected kindreds. In most kindreds thus far reported, the mode of inheritance follows an X chromosome-linked recessive pattern although autosomal-dominant and autosomal-recessive modes of inheritance have also been described. Studies demonstrating mutations in the V2(R) gene in affected kindreds that modify the receptor structure, resulting in a dys- or nonfunctional receptor have been described, but phenotypically indistinguishable NDI patients with a structurally normal V2(R) gene have also been reported. In the present study, we analyzed exon 3 of the V2(R) gene in 20 unrelated individuals by direct sequencing. A C®T alteration in the third position of codon 331 (AGC®AGT), which did not alter the encoded amino acid, was found in nine individuals, including two unrelated patients with NDI. Taken together, these observations emphasize the molecular heterogeneity of a phenotypically homogeneous syndrome

Reference values for lung function tests: III. Carbon monoxide diffusing capacity (transfer factor)

Carbon monoxide diffusing capacity (DLCO) or transfer factor (TLCO) is a particularly useful test of the appropriateness of gas exchange across the lung alveolocapillary membrane. With the purpose of establishing predictive equations for DLCO using a non-smoking sample of the adult Brazilian population, we prospectively evaluated 100 subjects (50 males and 50 females aged 20 to 80 years), randomly selected from more than 8,000 individuals. Gender-specific linear prediction equations were developed by multiple regression analysis with single breath (SB) absolute and volume-corrected (VA) DLCO values as dependent variables. In the prediction equations, age (years) and height (cm) had opposite effects on DLCOSB (ml min-1 mmHg-1), independent of gender (-0.13 (age) + 0.32 (height) - 13.07 in males and -0.075 (age) + 0.18 (height) + 0.20 in females). On the other hand, height had a positive effect on DLCOSB but a negative one on DLCOSB/VA (P<0.01). We found that the predictive values from the most cited studies using predominantly Caucasian samples were significantly different from the actually measured values (P<0.05). Furthermore, oxygen uptake at maximal exercise (VO2max) correlated highly to DLCOSB (R = 0.71, P<0.001); this variable, however, did not maintain an independent role to explain the VO2max variability in the multiple regression analysis (P>0.05). Our results therefore provide an original frame of reference for either DLCOSB or DLCOSB/VA in Brazilian males and females aged 20 to 80 years, obtained from the standardized single-breath technique.

Linear competitive inhibition of human tissue kallikrein by 4-aminobenzamidine and benzamidine and linear mixed inhibition by 4-nitroaniline and aniline

Hydrolysis of D-valyl-L-leucyl-L-arginine p-nitroanilide (7.5-90.0 µM) by human tissue kallikrein (hK1) (4.58-5.27 nM) at pH 9.0 and 37ºC was studied in the absence and in the presence of increasing concentrations of 4-aminobenzamidine (96-576 µM), benzamidine (1.27-7.62 mM), 4-nitroaniline (16.5-66 µM) and aniline (20-50 mM). The kinetic parameters determined in the absence of inhibitors were: Km = 12.0 ± 0.8 µM and k cat = 48.4 ± 1.0 min-1. The data indicate that the inhibition of hK1 by 4-aminobenzamidine and benzamidine is linear competitive, while the inhibition by 4-nitroaniline and aniline is linear mixed, with the inhibitor being able to bind both to the free enzyme with a dissociation constant Ki yielding an EI complex, and to the ES complex with a dissociation constant Ki', yielding an ESI complex. The calculated Ki values for 4-aminobenzamidine, benzamidine, 4-nitroaniline and aniline were 146 ± 10, 1,098 ± 91, 38.6 ± 5.2 and 37,340 ± 5,400 µM, respectively. The calculated Ki' values for 4-nitroaniline and aniline were 289.3 ± 92.8 and 310,500 ± 38,600 µM, respectively. The fact that Ki'>Ki indicates that 4-nitroaniline and aniline bind to a second binding site in the enzyme with lower affinity than they bind to the active site. The data about the inhibition of hK1 by 4-aminobenzamidine and benzamidine help to explain previous observations that esters, anilides or chloromethyl ketone derivatives of Nalpha-substituted arginine are more sensitive substrates or inhibitors of hK1 than the corresponding lysine compounds.

Developmental norms for the Gardner Steadiness Test and the Purdue Pegboard: a study with children of a metropolitan school in Brazil

Norms for the Gardner Steadiness Test and the Purdue Pegboard were developed for the neuropsychological assessment of children in the metropolitan area of Rio de Janeiro. A computer-generated unbiased sample of 346 children with a mean age of 9.4 years (SD = 2.76), who were attending a large normal public school in this urban area, was the subject of this study. Two boys were removed from the study, one for refusing to participate and the other due to severe strabismus. Therefore, the final sample contained 344 children (173 boys and 171 girls). Sex and age of the child and hand preferred for writing, but not ethnic membership or social class, had significant effects on performance in the Gardner Steadiness Test and the Purdue Pegboard. Girls outperformed boys. Older children performed better than younger children. However, the predictive relationship between age of the child and neuropsychological performance included linear and curvilinear components. Comparison of the present results to data gathered in the United States revealed that the performance of this group of Brazilian children is equivalent to that of US children after Bonferroni's correction of the alpha level of significance. It is concluded that sex and age of the child and hand preferred for writing should be taken into account when using the normative data for the two instruments evaluated in the present study. Furthermore, the relevance of neurobehavioral antidotes for the obliteration of some of the probable neuropsychological effects of cultural deprivation in Brazilian public school children is hypothesized.

Comparison of Different Concentrated Solar Power Collector Designs and Development of a Linear Fresnel Solar Collector Model

Concentrated solar power (CSP) is a renewable energy technology, which could contribute to overcoming global problems related to pollution emissions and increasing energy demand. CSP utilizes solar irradiation, which is a variable source of energy. In order to utilize CSP technology in energy production and reliably operate a solar field including thermal energy storage system, dynamic simulation tools are needed in order to study the dynamics of the solar field, to optimize production and develop control systems. The object of this Master’s Thesis is to compare different concentrated solar power technologies and configure a dynamic solar field model of one selected CSP field design in the dynamic simulation program Apros, owned by VTT and Fortum. The configured model is based on German Novatec Solar’s linear Fresnel reflector design. Solar collector components including dimensions and performance calculation were developed, as well as a simple solar field control system. The preliminary simulation results of two simulation cases under clear sky conditions were good; the desired and stable superheated steam conditions were maintained in both cases, while, as expected, the amount of steam produced was reduced in the case having lower irradiation conditions. As a result of the model development process, it can be concluded, that the configured model is working successfully and that Apros is a very capable and flexible tool for configuring new solar field models and control systems and simulating solar field dynamic behaviour.

Comparative sequence analysis of the P-, M- and L-coding region of the measles virus CAM-70 live attenuated vaccine strain

Measles virus is a highly contagious agent which causes a major health problem in developing countries. The viral genomic RNA is single-stranded, nonsegmented and of negative polarity. Many live attenuated vaccines for measles virus have been developed using either the prototype Edmonston strain or other locally isolated measles strains. Despite the diverse geographic origins of the vaccine viruses and the different attenuation methods used, there was remarkable sequence similarity of H, F and N genes among all vaccine strains. CAM-70 is a Japanese measles attenuated vaccine strain widely used in Brazilian children and produced by Bio-Manguinhos since 1982. Previous studies have characterized this vaccine biologically and genomically. Nevertheless, only the F, H and N genes have been sequenced. In the present study we have sequenced the remaining P, M and L genes (approximately 1.6, 1.4 and 6.5 kb, respectively) to complete the genomic characterization of CAM-70 and to assess the extent of genetic relationship between CAM-70 and other current vaccines. These genes were amplified using long-range or standard RT-PCR techniques, and the cDNA was cloned and automatically sequenced using the dideoxy chain-termination method. The sequence analysis comparing previously sequenced genotype A strains with the CAM-70 Bio-Manguinhos strain showed a low divergence among them. However, the CAM-70 strains (CAM-70 Bio-Manguinhos and a recently sequenced CAM-70 submaster seed strain) were assigned to a specific group by phylogenetic analysis using the neighbor-joining method. Information about our product at the genomic level is important for monitoring vaccination campaigns and for future studies of measles virus attenuation.

Cloning, sequence analysis, and expression of cDNA coding for the major house dust mite allergen, Der f 1, in Escherichia coli

Our objective was to clone, express and characterize adult Dermatophagoides farinae group 1 (Der f 1) allergens to further produce recombinant allergens for future clinical applications in order to eliminate side reactions from crude extracts of mites. Based on GenBank data, we designed primers and amplified the cDNA fragment coding for Der f 1 by nested-PCR. After purification and recovery, the cDNA fragment was cloned into the pMD19-T vector. The fragment was then sequenced, subcloned into the plasmid pET28a(+), expressed in Escherichia coli BL21 and identified by Western blotting. The cDNA coding for Der f 1 was cloned, sequenced and expressed successfully. Sequence analysis showed the presence of an open reading frame containing 966 bp that encodes a protein of 321 amino acids. Interestingly, homology analysis showed that the Der p 1 shared more than 87% identity in amino acid sequence with Eur m 1 but only 80% with Der f 1. Furthermore, phylogenetic analyses suggested that D. pteronyssinus was evolutionarily closer to Euroglyphus maynei than to D. farinae, even though D. pteronyssinus and D. farinae belong to the same Dermatophagoides genus. A total of three cysteine peptidase active sites were found in the predicted amino acid sequence, including 127-138 (QGGCGSCWAFSG), 267-277 (NYHAVNIVGYG) and 284-303 (YWIVRNSWDTTWGDSGYGYF). Moreover, secondary structure analysis revealed that Der f 1 contained an a helix (33.96%), an extended strand (17.13%), a ß turn (5.61%), and a random coil (43.30%). A simple three-dimensional model of this protein was constructed using a Swiss-model server. The cDNA coding for Der f 1 was cloned, sequenced and expressed successfully. Alignment and phylogenetic analysis suggests that D. pteronyssinus is evolutionarily more similar to E. maynei than to D. farinae.

Correlation of serum leptin and insulin levels of pregnant protein-restricted rats with predictive obesity variables

During pregnancy and protein restriction, changes in serum insulin and leptin levels, food intake and several metabolic parameters normally result in enhanced adiposity. We evaluated serum leptin and insulin levels and their correlations with some predictive obesity variables in Wistar rats (90 days), up to the 14th day of pregnancy: control non-pregnant (N = 5) and pregnant (N = 7) groups (control diet: 17% protein), and low-protein non-pregnant (N = 5) and pregnant (N = 6) groups (low-protein diet: 6%). Independent of the protein content of the diet, pregnancy increased total (F1,19 = 22.28, P < 0.001) and relative (F1,19 = 5.57, P < 0.03) food intake, the variation of weight (F1,19 = 49.79, P < 0.000) and final body weight (F1,19 = 19.52, P < 0.001), but glycemia (F1,19 = 9.02, P = 0.01) and the relative weight of gonadal adipose tissue (F1,19 = 17.11, P < 0.001) were decreased. Pregnancy (F1,19 = 18.13, P < 0.001) and low-protein diet (F1,19 = 20.35, P < 0.001) increased the absolute weight of brown adipose tissue. However, the relative weight of this tissue was increased only by protein restriction (F1,19 = 15.20, P < 0.001) and the relative lipid in carcass was decreased in low-protein groups (F1,19 = 4.34, P = 0.05). Serum insulin and leptin levels were similar among groups and did not correlate with food intake. However, there was a positive relationship between serum insulin levels and carcass fat depots in low-protein groups (r = 0.37, P < 0.05), while in pregnancy serum leptin correlated with weight of gonadal (r = 0.39, P < 0.02) and retroperitoneal (r = 0.41, P < 0.01) adipose tissues. Unexpectedly, protein restriction during 14 days of pregnancy did not alter the serum profile of adiposity signals and their effects on food intake and adiposity, probably due to the short term of exposure to low-protein diet.

Gene trio signatures as molecular markers to predict response to doxorubicin cyclophosphamide neoadjuvant chemotherapy in breast cancerpatients

In breast cancer patients submitted to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (4 cycles of doxorubicin and cyclophosphamide, AC), expression of groups of three genes (gene trio signatures) could distinguish responsive from non-responsive tumors, as demonstrated by cDNA microarray profiling in a previous study by our group. In the current study, we determined if the expression of the same genes would retain the predictive strength, when analyzed by a more accessible technique (real-time RT-PCR). We evaluated 28 samples already analyzed by cDNA microarray, as a technical validation procedure, and 14 tumors, as an independent biological validation set. All patients received neoadjuvant chemotherapy (4 AC). Among five trio combinations previously identified, defined by nine genes individually investigated (BZRP, CLPTM1,MTSS1, NOTCH1, NUP210, PRSS11, RPL37A, SMYD2, and XLHSRF-1), the most accurate were established by RPL37A, XLHSRF-1based trios, with NOTCH1 or NUP210. Both trios correctly separated 86% of tumors (87% sensitivity and 80% specificity for predicting response), according to their response to chemotherapy (82% in a leave-one-out cross-validation method). Using the pre-established features obtained by linear discriminant analysis, 71% samples from the biological validation set were also correctly classified by both trios (72% sensitivity; 66% specificity). Furthermore, we explored other gene combinations to achieve a higher accuracy in the technical validation group (as a training set). A new trio, MTSS1, RPL37 and SMYD2, correctly classified 93% of samples from the technical validation group (95% sensitivity and 80% specificity; 86% accuracy by the cross-validation method) and 79% from the biological validation group (72% sensitivity and 100% specificity). Therefore, the combined expression of MTSS1, RPL37 and SMYD2, as evaluated by real-time RT-PCR, is a potential candidate to predict response to neoadjuvant doxorubicin and cyclophosphamide in breast cancer patients.