Startegy selection during exploratory behavior: sex differences, uncertainty and risk managment

This study deals with the psychological processes underlying the selection of appropriate strategy during exploratory behavior. A new device was used to assess sexual dimorphisms in spatial abilities that do not depend on spatial rotation, map reading or directional vector extraction capacities. Moreover, it makes it possible to investigate exploratory behavior as a specific response to novelty that trades off risk and reward. Risk management under uncertainty was assessed through both spontaneous searching strategies and signal detection capacities. The results of exploratory behavior, detection capacities, and decision-making strategies seem to indicate that women's exploratory behavior is based on risk-reducing behavior while men behavior does not appear to be influenced by this variable. This difference was interpreted as a difference in information processing modifying beliefs concerning the likelihood of uncertain events, and therefore influencing risk evaluation.

Monetary integration and the cost of borrowing

With the beginning of the European Monetary Union (EMU), euro-area sovereign securities¿ adjusted spreads over Germany (corrected from the foreign exchange risk) experienced an increase that caused a lower than expected decline in borrowing costs. The objective of this paper is to study what explains that rising. In particular, if it took place a change in the price assigned by markets to domestic (credit risk and/or market liquidity) or to international risk factors. The empirical evidence supports the idea that a change in the market value of liquidity occurred with the EMU. International and default risk play a smaller role

Characterization of gravitational rock slope deformations at different spatial scales based on field, remote sensing and numerical approaches

Rock slope instabilities such as rock slides, rock avalanche or deep-seated gravitational slope deformations are widespread in Alpine valleys. These phenomena represent at the same time a main factor that control the mountain belts erosion and also a significant natural hazard that creates important losses to the mountain communities. However, the potential geometrical and dynamic connections linking outcrop and slope-scale instabilities are often unknown. A more detailed definition of the potential links will be essential to improve the comprehension of the destabilization processes and to dispose of a more complete hazard characterization of the rock instabilities at different spatial scales. In order to propose an integrated approach in the study of the rock slope instabilities, three main themes were analysed in this PhD thesis: (1) the inventory and the spatial distribution of rock slope deformations at regional scale and their influence on the landscape evolution, (2) the influence of brittle and ductile tectonic structures on rock slope instabilities development and (3) the characterization of hazard posed by potential rock slope instabilities through the development of conceptual instability models. To prose and integrated approach for the analyses of these topics, several techniques were adopted. In particular, high resolution digital elevation models revealed to be fundamental tools that were employed during the different stages of the rock slope instability assessment. A special attention was spent in the application of digital elevation model for detailed geometrical modelling of past and potential instabilities and for the rock slope monitoring at different spatial scales. Detailed field analyses and numerical models were performed to complete and verify the remote sensing approach. In the first part of this thesis, large slope instabilities in Rhone valley (Switzerland) were mapped in order to dispose of a first overview of tectonic and climatic factors influencing their distribution and their characteristics. Our analyses demonstrate the key influence of neotectonic activity and the glacial conditioning on the spatial distribution of the rock slope deformations. Besides, the volumes of rock instabilities identified along the main Rhone valley, were then used to propose the first estimate of the postglacial denudation and filling of the Rhone valley associated to large gravitational movements. In the second part of the thesis, detailed structural analyses of the Frank slide and the Sierre rock avalanche were performed to characterize the influence of brittle and ductile tectonic structures on the geometry and on the failure mechanism of large instabilities. Our observations indicated that the geometric characteristics and the variation of the rock mass quality associated to ductile tectonic structures, that are often ignored landslide study, represent important factors that can drastically influence the extension and the failure mechanism of rock slope instabilities. In the last part of the thesis, the failure mechanisms and the hazard associated to five potential instabilities were analysed in detail. These case studies clearly highlighted the importance to incorporate different analyses and monitoring techniques to dispose of reliable and hazard scenarios. This information associated to the development of a conceptual instability model represents the primary data for an integrated risk management of rock slope instabilities. - Les mouvements de versant tels que les chutes de blocs, les éboulements ou encore les phénomènes plus lents comme les déformations gravitaires profondes de versant représentent des manifestations courantes en régions montagneuses. Les mouvements de versant sont à la fois un des facteurs principaux contrôlant la destruction progressive des chaines orogéniques mais aussi un danger naturel concret qui peut provoquer des dommages importants. Pourtant, les phénomènes gravitaires sont rarement analysés dans leur globalité et les rapports géométriques et mécaniques qui lient les instabilités à l'échelle du versant aux instabilités locales restent encore mal définis. Une meilleure caractérisation de ces liens pourrait pourtant représenter un apport substantiel dans la compréhension des processus de déstabilisation des versants et améliorer la caractérisation des dangers gravitaires à toutes les échelles spatiales. Dans le but de proposer un approche plus globale à la problématique des mouvements gravitaires, ce travail de thèse propose trois axes de recherche principaux: (1) l'inventaire et l'analyse de la distribution spatiale des grandes instabilités rocheuses à l'échelle régionale, (2) l'analyse des structures tectoniques cassantes et ductiles en relation avec les mécanismes de rupture des grandes instabilités rocheuses et (3) la caractérisation des aléas rocheux par une approche multidisciplinaire visant à développer un modèle conceptuel de l'instabilité et une meilleure appréciation du danger . Pour analyser les différentes problématiques traitées dans cette thèse, différentes techniques ont été utilisées. En particulier, le modèle numérique de terrain s'est révélé être un outil indispensable pour la majorité des analyses effectuées, en partant de l'identification de l'instabilité jusqu'au suivi des mouvements. Les analyses de terrain et des modélisations numériques ont ensuite permis de compléter les informations issues du modèle numérique de terrain. Dans la première partie de cette thèse, les mouvements gravitaires rocheux dans la vallée du Rhône (Suisse) ont été cartographiés pour étudier leur répartition en fonction des variables géologiques et morphologiques régionales. En particulier, les analyses ont mis en évidence l'influence de l'activité néotectonique et des phases glaciaires sur la distribution des zones à forte densité d'instabilités rocheuses. Les volumes des instabilités rocheuses identifiées le long de la vallée principale ont été ensuite utilisés pour estimer le taux de dénudations postglaciaire et le remplissage de la vallée du Rhône lié aux grands mouvements gravitaires. Dans la deuxième partie, l'étude de l'agencement structural des avalanches rocheuses de Sierre (Suisse) et de Frank (Canada) a permis de mieux caractériser l'influence passive des structures tectoniques sur la géométrie des instabilités. En particulier, les structures issues d'une tectonique ductile, souvent ignorées dans l'étude des instabilités gravitaires, ont été identifiées comme des structures très importantes qui contrôlent les mécanismes de rupture des instabilités à différentes échelles. Dans la dernière partie de la thèse, cinq instabilités rocheuses différentes ont été étudiées par une approche multidisciplinaire visant à mieux caractériser l'aléa et à développer un modèle conceptuel trois dimensionnel de ces instabilités. A l'aide de ces analyses on a pu mettre en évidence la nécessité d'incorporer différentes techniques d'analyses et de surveillance pour une gestion plus objective du risque associée aux grandes instabilités rocheuses.

Associations of physical activity and sport and exercise with at-risk substance use in young men: a longitudinal study.

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to measure the associations of physical activity and one of its components, sport and exercise, with at-risk substance use in a population of young men. METHOD: Baseline (2010-2012) and follow-up (2012-2013) data of 4748 young Swiss men from the Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors (C-SURF) were used. Cross-sectional and prospective associations between at-risk substance use and both sport and exercise and physical activities were measured using Chi-squared tests and logistic regression models adjusting for covariates. RESULTS: At baseline, logistic regression indicated that sport and exercise is negatively associated with at-risk use of cigarettes and cannabis. A positive association was obtained between physical activity and at-risk alcohol use. At baseline, sport and exercise was negatively associated with at-risk use of cigarettes and cannabis at follow-up. Adjusted for sport and exercise, physical activity was positively associated with at-risk use of cigarettes and cannabis. CONCLUSION: Sport and exercise is cross-sectionally and longitudinally associated with a low prevalence of at-risk use of cigarettes and cannabis. This protective effect was not observed for physical activity broadly defined. Taking a substance use prevention perspective, the promotion of sport and exercise among young adults should be encouraged.

Bone metabolism and risk of secondary hyperparathyroidism 12 months after gastric banding in obese pre-menopausal women.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate, during the first postoperative year in obese pre-menopausal women, the effects of laparoscopic gastric banding on calcium and vitamin D metabolism, the potential modifications of bone mineral content and bone mineral density, and the risk of development of secondary hyperparathyroidism. SUBJECTS: Thirty-one obese pre-menopausal women aged between 25 and 52 y with a mean body mass index (BMI) of 43.6 kg/m(2), scheduled for gastric banding were included. Patients with renal, hepatic, metabolic and bone disease were excluded. METHODS: Body composition and bone mineral density (BMD) were measured at baseline, 6 and 12 months after gastric banding using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Serum calcium, phosphate, alkaline phosphatase, aspartate aminotransferase, alanine aminotransferase, gamma-glutamyltransferase, bilirubin, urea, creatinine, uric acid, proteins, parathormone, vitamin D(3), IGF-1, IGF-BP3 and telopeptide, as well as urinary telopeptide, were measured at baseline and 1, 3, 6, 9 and 12 months after surgery. RESULTS: After 1 y vitamin D3 remained stable and PTH decreased by 12%, but the difference was not significant. Serum telopeptide C increased significantly by 100% (P<0.001). There was an initial drop of the IGF-BP3 during the first 6 months (P<0.05), but the reduction was no longer significant after 1 y. The BMD of cortical bone (femoral neck) decreased significantly and showed a trend of a positive correlation with the increase of telopeptides (P<0.06). The BMD of trabecular bone, at the lumbar spine, increased proportionally to the reduction of hip circumference and of body fat. CONCLUSION: There is no evidence of secondary hyperparathyroidism 1 y after gastric banding. Nevertheless biochemical bone markers show a negative remodelling balance, characterized by an increase of bone resorption. The serum telopeptide seems to be a reliable parameter, not affected by weight loss, to follow up bone turnover after gastroplasty.

The epidemiologic transition to chronic diseases in developing countries: cardiovascular mortality, morbidity, and risk factors in Seychelles (Indian Ocean).

The occurrence of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and related risk factors was evaluated in Seychelles, a middle level income country, as accumulating evidence supports increasing rates of CVD in developing countries. CVD mortality was obtained from vital statistics for two periods, 1984-5 and 1991-3. CVD morbidity was estimated by retrospective review of discharge diagnoses for all admissions to medical wards in 1990-1992. Levels of CVD risk factors in the population were assessed in 1989 through a population-based survey. In 1991-93, standardized mortality rates were in males and females respectively, 80.9 and 38.8 for cerebrovascular disease and 92.9 and 47.0 for ischemic heart disease. CVD accounted for 25.2% of all admissions to medical wards. Among the general population aged 35-64, 30% had high blood pressure, 52% of males smoked, and 28% of females were obese. These findings substantiate the current health transition to CVD in Seychelles. More generally, epidemiologic data on CVD mortality, morbidity, and related risk factors, as well as similar indicators for other chronic diseases, should more consistently appear in national and international reports of human development to help emphasize, in the health policy making scene, the current transition to chronic diseases in developing countries and the subsequent need for appropriate control and prevention programs.

Cigarette smoking and endometrial cancer risk: the modifying effect of obesity.

The objective of this study was to evaluate the association between cigarette smoking and endometrial cancer risk by investigating potential modifying effects of menopausal status, obesity, and exogenous hormones. We pooled data from three case-control studies with the same study design conducted in Italy and Switzerland between 1982 and 2006. Overall, 1446 incident endometrial cancers and 4076 hospital controls were enrolled. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using logistic regression models, conditioned on study and centre, and adjusted for age, period of interview, age at menarche, parity, and body mass index. In comparison with never smokers, current smokers showed reduced endometrial cancer risk (OR: 0.80; 95% CI: 0.66-0.96), with a 28% decrease in risk for smoking >/=20 cigarettes/day. The association did not vary according to menopausal status, oral contraceptive use, or hormone replacement therapy. However, heterogeneity emerged according to body mass index among postmenopausal women, with obese women showing the greatest risk reduction for current smoking (OR: 0.47; 95% CI: 0.27-0.81). In postmenopausal women, obesity turned out to be an important modifier of the association between cigarette smoking and the risk of endometrial cancer. This finding calls for caution in interpreting the favorable effects of cigarette smoking, considering the toxic and carcinogenic effects of tobacco.

Monetary integration and the cost of borrowing

With the beginning of the European Monetary Union (EMU), euro-area sovereign securities¿ adjusted spreads over Germany (corrected from the foreign exchange risk) experienced an increase that caused a lower than expected decline in borrowing costs. The objective of this paper is to study what explains that rising. In particular, if it took place a change in the price assigned by markets to domestic (credit risk and/or market liquidity) or to international risk factors. The empirical evidence supports the idea that a change in the market value of liquidity occurred with the EMU. International and default risk play a smaller role

Previous thyroid disease and risk of thyroid cancer in Switzerland

A hospital-based case-control study of 86 cases of thyroid cancer and 317 controls was done in the Swiss Canton of Vaud. Patients with thyroid cancer tended to be better educated (odds ratio [OR] 2.1 for greater than or equal to 14 vs. less than or equal to 8 years of education 95% CI 1.1-4.1) and of higher social class than controls. Cases more often had a history of benign thyroid nodules (OR 25.2, 95% CI 7.6-83.6) and non-toxic goitre (OR 5.3, 95% CI 2.5-11.2). Furthermore, patients with thyroid cancer were more likely to have resided in endemic goitre areas (OR 1.7, 95% CI 1.0-3.0) and to have had first-degree relatives affected by benign thyroid disease (OR 3.9, 95% CI 2.1-7.1). Therefore, this study offers quantitative evidence of the association between various thyroid diseases and the risk of thyroid cancer which, despite difficulties in the classification of benign and malignant thyroid diseases, is remarkably consistent in studies from different countries.

A multicenter, cross-sectional study on the prevalence and risk factors for nasal colonization with Staphylococcus aureus in patients admitted to children's hospitals in Switzerland.

The rate of nasal carriage of Staphylococcus aureus and associated risk factors were determined in a cross-sectional study involving Swiss children's hospitals. S. aureus was isolated in 562 of 1363 cases. In a stepwise multivariate analysis, the variables age, duration of antibiotic use, and hospitalization of a household member were independently associated with carriage of S. aureus.

Efficacy, tolerability and risk factors for virological failure of darunavir-based therapy for treatment-experienced HIV-infected patients: the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVES: Darunavir was designed for activity against HIV resistant to other protease inhibitors (PIs). We assessed the efficacy, tolerability and risk factors for virological failure of darunavir for treatment-experienced patients seen in clinical practice. METHODS: We included all patients in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study starting darunavir after recording a viral load above 1000 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL given prior exposure to both PIs and nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors. We followed these patients for up to 72 weeks, assessed virological failure using different loss of virological response algorithms and evaluated risk factors for virological failure using a Bayesian method to fit discrete Cox proportional hazard models. RESULTS: Among 130 treatment-experienced patients starting darunavir, the median age was 47 years, the median duration of HIV infection was 16 years, and 82% received mono or dual antiretroviral therapy before starting highly active antiretroviral therapy. During a median patient follow-up period of 45 weeks, 17% of patients stopped taking darunavir after a median exposure of 20 weeks. In patients followed beyond 48 weeks, the rate of virological failure at 48 weeks was at most 20%. Virological failure was more likely where patients had previously failed on both amprenavir and saquinavir and as the number of previously failed PI regimens increased. CONCLUSIONS: As a component of therapy for treatment-experienced patients, darunavir can achieve a similar efficacy and tolerability in clinical practice to that seen in clinical trials. Clinicians should consider whether a patient has failed on both amprenavir and saquinavir and the number of failed PI regimens before prescribing darunavir.

Common variants near MC4R are associated with fat mass, weight and risk of obesity.

To identify common variants influencing body mass index (BMI), we analyzed genome-wide association data from 16,876 individuals of European descent. After previously reported variants in FTO, the strongest association signal (rs17782313, P = 2.9 x 10(-6)) mapped 188 kb downstream of MC4R (melanocortin-4 receptor), mutations of which are the leading cause of monogenic severe childhood-onset obesity. We confirmed the BMI association in 60,352 adults (per-allele effect = 0.05 Z-score units; P = 2.8 x 10(-15)) and 5,988 children aged 7-11 (0.13 Z-score units; P = 1.5 x 10(-8)). In case-control analyses (n = 10,583), the odds for severe childhood obesity reached 1.30 (P = 8.0 x 10(-11)). Furthermore, we observed overtransmission of the risk allele to obese offspring in 660 families (P (pedigree disequilibrium test average; PDT-avg) = 2.4 x 10(-4)). The SNP location and patterns of phenotypic associations are consistent with effects mediated through altered MC4R function. Our findings establish that common variants near MC4R influence fat mass, weight and obesity risk at the population level and reinforce the need for large-scale data integration to identify variants influencing continuous biomedical traits.

Occurrence of patulin in organic and conventional apple juice. Risk assessment

Organic foods are promoted as environmentally friendly and its consumption has become increasingly popular. Nevertheless,organic farming practices could produce commodities more susceptible to fungal attack and as a result, food with higher levels of mycotoxins. Patulin is a mycotoxin mainly present in apples and apple-based products. In this paper, we report our recent results and an update of the patulin occurrence and their risk in conventional and organic apple juices around Europe.

Distribution of metals exposure and associations with cardiometabolic risk factors in the "Modeling the Epidemiologic Transition Study".

BACKGROUND: Metals are known endocrine disruptors and have been linked to cardiometabolic diseases via multiple potential mechanisms, yet few human studies have both the exposure variability and biologically-relevant phenotype data available. We sought to examine the distribution of metals exposure and potential associations with cardiometabolic risk factors in the "Modeling the Epidemiologic Transition Study" (METS), a prospective cohort study designed to assess energy balance and change in body weight, diabetes and cardiovascular disease risk in five countries at different stages of social and economic development. METHODS: Young adults (25-45 years) of African descent were enrolled (N = 500 from each site) in: Ghana, South Africa, Seychelles, Jamaica and the U.S.A. We randomly selected 150 blood samples (N = 30 from each site) to determine concentrations of selected metals (arsenic, cadmium, lead, mercury) in a subset of participants at baseline and to examine associations with cardiometabolic risk factors. RESULTS: Median (interquartile range) metal concentrations (μg/L) were: arsenic 8.5 (7.7); cadmium 0.01 (0.8); lead 16.6 (16.1); and mercury 1.5 (5.0). There were significant differences in metals concentrations by: site location, paid employment status, education, marital status, smoking, alcohol use, and fish intake. After adjusting for these covariates plus age and sex, arsenic (OR 4.1, 95% C.I. 1.2, 14.6) and lead (OR 4.0, 95% C.I. 1.6, 9.6) above the median values were significantly associated with elevated fasting glucose. These associations increased when models were further adjusted for percent body fat: arsenic (OR 5.6, 95% C.I. 1.5, 21.2) and lead (OR 5.0, 95% C.I. 2.0, 12.7). Cadmium and mercury were also related with increased odds of elevated fasting glucose, but the associations were not statistically significant. Arsenic was significantly associated with increased odds of low HDL cholesterol both with (OR 8.0, 95% C.I. 1.8, 35.0) and without (OR 5.9, 95% C.I. 1.5, 23.1) adjustment for percent body fat. CONCLUSIONS: While not consistent for all cardiometabolic disease markers, these results are suggestive of potentially important associations between metals exposure and cardiometabolic risk. Future studies will examine these associations in the larger cohort over time.

At-risk drinking and drug use among patients seeking care in an emergency department.

OBJECTIVE: This study reports the frequency of alcohol use and associated tobacco and drug use among emergency department (ED) patients, in order to increase physician awareness and treatment of women and men seeking care in ED settings. METHOD: All adults seen in the ED at the University Hospital in Lausanne, Switzerland, between 11 AM and 11 PM were screened by direct interview for at-risk drinking, tobacco use, drug use, and depression during an 18-month period. RESULTS: A total of 8,599 patients (4,006 women and 4,593 men) participated in the screening procedure and provided full data on the variables in our analysis. The mean age was 51.9 years for women and 45.0 years for men; 57.5% (n = 2,304) of women and 58.5% (n = 2,688) of men were being treated for trauma. Based on guidelines of the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism, 13.1% (n = 523) of the women were at-risk drinkers, 57.3% (n = 2,301) were low-risk drinkers, and 29.6% (n = 1,182) were abstinent. Among men, 32.8% (n = 1,507) met criteria for at-risk drinking, 51.8% (n = 2,380) met criteria for low-risk drinking, and 15.4% (n = 706) were abstinent. Younger individuals (ages 18-30) had significantly higher rates of episodic heavy drinking episodes, whereas at-risk older patients were more likely to drink on a daily basis. A binary model found that women and men who drank at at-risk levels are more likely to use tobacco (odds ratio [OR] = 2.48, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.0-3.08) and illicit drugs (OR = 5.91, CI: 3.32- 10.54) compared with abstinent and low-risk drinkers. CONCLUSIONS: This study supports systematic alcohol screening of women and men seen in EDs and suggests that patterns of alcohol and drug use vary by age and gender.