Anàlisi de la modelització hidrològica com a eina per la predicció d'inundacions i la gestió del territori

Les inundacions són actualment les catàstrofes naturals més recurrents i les que generen un major nombre de danys i víctimes arreu del món. L'ocupació de les zones inundables a les lleres del riu és la causa principal d’aquests desastres naturals. En aquest article es descriu la realització de models hidrològics com a mecanisme per la predicció d’inundacions i la gestió del territori. S’han estudiat les conques de la Riera de Santa Coloma (Catalunya) i del riu San Francisco (Guatemala) mitjançant els programes HEC-HMS i HEC-RAS, dels quals s’avalua la seva capacitat com eina per a la gestió del territori. S’ha analitzat l’efecte de la urbanització en el risc d’inundació en el cas de la Riera de Santa Coloma en base a la previsió del Plà d’Ordenament Urbanístic Municipal. S’han determinat les zones inundables resultants de episodis de precipitació extrems al Riu San Francisco per als episodis de les tempestes Stan(2005) i Agatha(2010).

Anàlisi multidisciplinària de la vulnerabilitat a la contaminació de les aigües subterrànies: la conca de l'Onyar (Gironès)

En el present projecte s’ha emprat la metodologia DRASTIC per evaluar la vulnerabilitat a la contaminació de les aigües subterrànies de la conca de l’Onyar. El fet de ser una zona de tradició agrícola i ramadera i amb un creixement urbanístic significatiu, la fa ser una zona de gran interès per l’estudi de la vulnerabilitat. Després d’obtenir l’índex DRASTIC s’ha realitzat una campanya al mes de maig de 2011 per analitzar les concentracions de nitrats a la zona per validar l’estudi. Conjuntament amb el mapa d’usos del sòl i la informació de la localització de les depuradores més properes, s’han comparat els resultats d’ambdós mapes. L’anàlisi dels resultats obtinguts ha permès comprovar que la metodologia dóna bons resultats quan s’analitza la vulnerabilitat a nivell de conca. A més a més, utensilis de fàcil abast aporten informació sobre el perill de contaminació, ajudant a la validació del mètode.

Can Remotely Sensed Meteorological Data Significantly Contribute to Reduce Costs of Tsetse Surveys?

A 0.125 degree raster or grid-based Geographic Information System with data on tsetse, trypanosomosis, animal production, agriculture and land use has recently been developed in Togo. This paper addresses the problem of generating tsetse distribution and abundance maps from remotely sensed data, using a restricted amount of field data. A discriminant analysis model is tested using contemporary tsetse data and remotely sensed, low resolution data acquired from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration and Meteosat platforms. A split sample technique is adopted where a randomly selected part of the field measured data (training set) serves to predict the other part (predicted set). The obtained results are then compared with field measured data per corresponding grid-square. Depending on the size of the training set the percentage of concording predictions varies from 80 to 95 for distribution figures and from 63 to 74 for abundance. These results confirm the potential of satellite data application and multivariate analysis for the prediction, not only of the tsetse distribution, but more importantly of their abundance. This opens up new avenues because satellite predictions and field data may be combined to strengthen or substitute one another and thus reduce costs of field surveys.

Seminar Report: Translating Research into Better Public Health: What Does it Mean for the CoE(NI)?

The workshop was attended by 13 people excluding facilitators. Most were from outside QUB (including Belfast City Council, NHSSB, BHSCT, Centre for Public Health, NICR, Institute of Agri-food and Land Use (QUB), etc).Programme was:Introductions Part 1: What’s “knowledge brokerage” all about?Presentation and Q&A (Kevin Balanda)Small group discussions Part 2: What the Centre of Excellence is doingPresentation and Q&A (Kevin Balanda)Small group discussions

Information systems for water resources management improvement in developing countries

Water resources management, as also water service provision projects in developing countries have difficulties to take adequate decisions due to scarce reliable information, and a lack of proper information managing. Some appropriate tools need to be developed in order to improve decision making to improve water management and access of the poorest, through the design of Decision Support Systems (DSS). On the one side, a DSS for developing co-operation projects on water access improvement has been developed. Such a tool has specific context constrains (structure of the system, software requirements) and needs (Logical Framework Approach monitoring, organizational-learning, accountability and evaluation) that shall be considered for its design. Key aspects for its successful implementation have appeared to be a participatory design of the system and support of the managerial positions at the inception phase. A case study in Tanzania was conducted, together with the Spanish NGO ONGAWA – Ingeniería para el Desarrollo. On the other side, DSS are required also to improve decision making on water management resources in order to achieve a sustainable development that not only improves the living conditions of the population in developing countries, but that also does not hinder opportunities of the poorest on those context. A DSS made to fulfil these requirements shall be using information from water resources modelling, as also on the environment and the social context. Through the research, a case study has been conducted in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia, an endhorreic basin 160 km south of Addis Ababa. There, water has been modelled using ArcSWAT, a physically based model which can assess the impact of land management practices on large complex watersheds with varying soils, land use and management conditions over long periods of time. Moreover, governance on water and environment as also the socioeconomic context have been studied.

Will climate change drive alien invasive plants into areas of high protection value? An improved model-based regional assessment to prioritise the management of invasions.

Species distribution models (SDMs) studies suggest that, without control measures, the distribution of many alien invasive plant species (AIS) will increase under climate and land-use changes. Due to limited resources and large areas colonised by invaders, management and monitoring resources must be prioritised. Choices depend on the conservation value of the invaded areas and can be guided by SDM predictions. Here, we use a hierarchical SDM framework, complemented by connectivity analysis of AIS distributions, to evaluate current and future conflicts between AIS and high conservation value areas. We illustrate the framework with three Australian wattle (Acacia) species and patterns of conservation value in Northern Portugal. Results show that protected areas will likely suffer higher pressure from all three Acacia species under future climatic conditions. Due to this higher predicted conflict in protected areas, management might be prioritised for Acacia dealbata and Acacia melanoxylon. Connectivity of AIS suitable areas inside protected areas is currently lower than across the full study area, but this would change under future environmental conditions. Coupled SDM and connectivity analysis can support resource prioritisation for anticipation and monitoring of AIS impacts. However, further tests of this framework over a wide range of regions and organisms are still required before wide application.

Tegumentary leishmaniasis outbreak in Bella Vista City, Corrientes, Argentina during 2003

Bella Vista City, Corrientes, Argentina, reported an epidemic outbreak of tegumentary leishmaniasis during 2003. The mean age of the 31 cases was 25.0 ± 13.7 years old, with a sex ratio male:female 1.8, and without mucosal involvement. They clustered in two contiguous neighbourhoods, 96% in the periurban border and 4% in the peripheral outskirts. The transmission peak was estimated to have occurred during April 2003. Four species (3608 sand flies) were captured in nine sites: Lutzomyia neivai (90.1%), Lu. pessoai (8.9%), Lu. migonei (0.8 %), and Brumptomyia avellari (0.2 %). The outskirts/rural capture ratio of Lu. neivai was up to 3, and the outskirts/periurban up to 200. Therefore, the 'urban' transmission in this southernmost known focus is still an ecotone-border associated risk. The changes in human distribution or activities, patches of the secondary vegetation, periurban streams, rainfall of the previous year, and river period floods could all contribute to 'urban' outbreaks in the region. Tegumentary leishmaniasis risk should be assessed for any project that involves changes in land use throughout an endemic area.

An ecoregional classification for the state of Roraima, Brazil: the importance of landscape in malaria biology

Understanding the different background landscapes in which malaria transmission occurs is fundamental to understanding malaria epidemiology and to designing effective local malaria control programs. Geology, geomorphology, vegetation, climate, land use, and anopheline distribution were used as a basis for an ecological classification of the state of Roraima, Brazil, in the northern Amazon Basin, focused on the natural history of malaria and transmission. We used unsupervised maximum likelihood classification, principal components analysis, and weighted overlay with equal contribution analyses to fine-scale thematic maps that resulted in clustered regions. We used ecological niche modeling techniques to develop a fine-scale picture of malaria vector distributions in the state. Eight ecoregions were identified and malaria-related aspects are discussed based on this classification, including 5 types of dense tropical rain forest and 3 types of savannah. Ecoregions formed by dense tropical rain forest were named as montane (ecoregion I), submontane (II), plateau (III), lowland (IV), and alluvial (V). Ecoregions formed by savannah were divided into steppe (VI, campos de Roraima), savannah (VII, cerrado), and wetland (VIII, campinarana). Such ecoregional mappings are important tools in integrated malaria control programs that aim to identify specific characteristics of malaria transmission, classify transmission risk, and define priority areas and appropriate interventions. For some areas, extension of these approaches to still-finer resolutions will provide an improved picture of malaria transmission patterns.

La transformació del paisatge del delta de la Tordera en els darrers cent cinquanta anys : una anàlisi per mitjà dels canvis en els usos i les cobertes del sòl

This article compares the mid-nineteenth century landscape of the River Tordera delta with the present day landscape, based, above all, on the changes that have occurred in land use and land cover. The mid 19th century landscape was reconstructed using data obtained from the amillaraments (land inventories) and other historical documents. Present-day land use and cover was established through photo interpretation and field work. The most important changes detected concern the almost complete disappearance of certain crops, such as vineyards, which were very important in the 19th century; the expansion of forest in place of abandoned tilled land and the increase in built up areas, which, taken together, produce a highly fragmented landscape pattern

Absence of domestic triatomine colonies in an area of the coastal region of Ecuador where Chagas disease is endemic

Rhodnius ecuadoriensis is considered the second most important vector of Chagas disease in Ecuador. It is distributed across six of the 24 provinces and occupies intradomiciliary, peridomiciliary and sylvatic habitats. This study was conducted in six communities within the coastal province of Guayas. Triatomine searches were conducted in domestic and peridomestic habitats and bird nests using manual searches, live-bait traps and sensor boxes. Synantrhopic mammals were captured in the domestic and peridomestic habitats. Household searches (n = 429) and randomly placed sensor boxes (n = 360) produced no live triatomine adults or nymphs. In contrast, eight nymphs were found in two out of six searched Campylorhynchus fasciatus (Troglodytidae) nests. Finally, Trypanosoma cruzi DNA was amplified from the blood of 10% of the 115 examined mammals. Environmental changes in land use (intensive rice farming), mosquito control interventions and lack of intradomestic adaptation are suggested among the possible reasons for the lack of domestic triatomine colonies.

New tools for epidemiology: a space odyssey

Geographical Information Systems (GIS) facilitate access to epidemiological data through visualization and may be consulted for the development of mathematical models and analysis by spatial statistics. Variables such as land-cover, land-use, elevations, surface temperatures, rainfall etc. emanating from earth-observing satellites, complement GIS as this information allows the analysis of disease distribution based on environmental characteristics. The strength of this approach issues from the specific environmental requirements of those causative infectious agents, which depend on intermediate hosts for their transmission. The distribution of these diseases is restricted, both by the environmental requirements of their intermediate hosts/vectors and by the ambient temperature inside these hosts, which effectively govern the speed of maturation of the parasite. This paper discusses the current capabilities with regard to satellite data collection in terms of resolution (spatial, temporal and spectral) of the sensor instruments on board drawing attention to the utility of computer-based models of the Earth for epidemiological research. Virtual globes, available from Google and other commercial firms, are superior to conventional maps as they do not only show geographical and man-made features, but also allow instant import of data-sets of specific interest, e.g. environmental parameters, demographic information etc., from the Internet.

Exploring the association between Trypanosoma cruzi infection in rural communities and environmental changes in the southern Gran Chaco

The association between land use and land cover changes between 1979-2004 in a 2.26-million-hectare area south of the Gran Chaco region and Trypanosoma cruzi infection in rural communities was analysed. The extent of cultural land, open and closed forests and shrubland up to 3,000 m around rural communities in the north, northwest and west of the province of Córdoba was estimated using Landsat satellite imagery. The T. cruzi prevalence was estimated with a cross-sectional serological survey conducted in the rural communities. The land cover showed the same patterns in the 1979, 1999 and 2004 satellite imagery in both the northwest and west regions, with shrinking regions of cultured land and expanding closed forests away from the community. The closed forests and agricultural land coverage in the north region showed the same trend as in the northwest and west regions in 1979 but not in 1999 or 2004. In the latter two years, the coverage remote from the communities was either constant or changed in opposite ways from that of the northwest and west regions. The changes in closed forests and cultured vegetation alone did not have a significant, direct relationship with the occurrence of rural communities with at least one person infected by T. cruzi. This study suggests that the overall decrease in the prevalence of T. cruzi is a consequence of a combined effect of vector control activities and changes in land use and land cover.

Delimitation of kala-azar risk areas in the district of Vaishali in Bihar (India) using a geo-environmental approach

Remote sensing and geographical information technologies were used to discriminate areas of high and low risk for contracting kala-azar or visceral leishmaniasis. Satellite data were digitally processed to generate maps of land cover and spectral indices, such as the normalised difference vegetation index and wetness index. To map estimated vector abundance and indoor climate data, local polynomial interpolations were used based on the weightage values. Attribute layers were prepared based on illiteracy and the unemployed proportion of the population and associated with village boundaries. Pearson's correlation coefficient was used to estimate the relationship between environmental variables and disease incidence across the study area. The cell values for each input raster in the analysis were assigned values from the evaluation scale. Simple weighting/ratings based on the degree of favourable conditions for kala-azar transmission were used for all the variables, leading to geo-environmental risk model. Variables such as, land use/land cover, vegetation conditions, surface dampness, the indoor climate, illiteracy rates and the size of the unemployed population were considered for inclusion in the geo-environmental kala-azar risk model. The risk model was stratified into areas of "risk"and "non-risk"for the disease, based on calculation of risk indices. The described approach constitutes a promising tool for microlevel kala-azar surveillance and aids in directing control efforts.

Hierarchic species-area relationships and the management of forest habitat islands in intensive farmland

Habitat loss and fragmentation due to land use changes are major threats to biodiversity in forest ecosystems, and they are expected to have important impacts on many taxa and at various spatial scales. Species richness and area relationships (SARs) have been used to assess species diversity patterns and drivers, and thereby in the establishment of conservation and management strategies. Here we propose a hierarchical approach to achieve deeper insights on SARs in small forest islets in intensive farmland and to address the impacts of decreasing naturalness on such relationships. In the intensive dairy landscapes of Northwest Portugal, where small forest stands (dominated by pines, eucalypts or both) represent semi-natural habitat islands, 50 small forest stands were selected and surveyed for vascular plant diversity. A hierarchical analytical framework was devised to determine species richness and inter- and intra-patch SARs for the whole set of forest patches (general patterns) and for each type of forest (specific patterns). Differences in SARs for distinct groups were also tested by considering subsets of species (native, alien, woody, and herbaceous). Overall, values for species richness were confirmed to be different between forest patches exhibiting different levels of naturalness. Whereas higher values of plant diversity were found in pine stands, higher values for alien species were observed in eucalypt stands. Total area of forest (inter-patch SAR) was found not to have a significant impact on species richness for any of the targeted groups of species. However, significant intra-patch SARs were obtained for all groups of species and forest types. A hierarchical approach was successfully applied to scrutinise SARs along a gradient of forest naturalness in intensively managed landscapes. Dominant canopy tree and management intensity were found to reflect differently on distinct species groups as well as to compensate for increasing stand area, buffering SARs among patches, but not within patches. Thus, the maintenance of small semi-natural patches dominated by pines, under extensive practices of forest management, will promote native plant diversity while at the same time contributing to limit the expansion of problematic alien invasive species.