891 resultados para Lanczos, Linear systems, Generalized cross validation
Resumo:
This paper reports a comparison of three modeling strategies for the analysis of hospital mortality in a sample of general medicine inpatients in a Department of Veterans Affairs medical center. Logistic regression, a Markov chain model, and longitudinal logistic regression were evaluated on predictive performance as measured by the c-index and on accuracy of expected numbers of deaths compared to observed. The logistic regression used patient information collected at admission; the Markov model was comprised of two absorbing states for discharge and death and three transient states reflecting increasing severity of illness as measured by laboratory data collected during the hospital stay; longitudinal regression employed Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) to model covariance structure for the repeated binary outcome. Results showed that the logistic regression predicted hospital mortality as well as the alternative methods but was limited in scope of application. The Markov chain provides insights into how day to day changes of illness severity lead to discharge or death. The longitudinal logistic regression showed that increasing illness trajectory is associated with hospital mortality. The conclusion is reached that for standard applications in modeling hospital mortality, logistic regression is adequate, but for new challenges facing health services research today, alternative methods are equally predictive, practical, and can provide new insights. ^
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There have been numerous attempts to reveal the neurobiological basis of schizophrenia spectrum disorders. Results however, remain as heterogeneous as the schizophrenia spectrum disorders itself. Therefore, one aim of this thesis was to divide patients affected by this disorder into subgroups in order to homogenize the results of future studies. In a first study it is suggested that psychopathological rating scales should focus on symptoms-clusters that may have a common neurophysiological background. The here presented Bern Psychopathology Scale (BPS) proposes that alterations in three wellknown brain systems (motor, language, and affective) are largely leading to the communication failures observable on a behavioral level, but also - as repeatedly hypothesized - to dysconnectivity within and between brain systems in schizophrenia spectrum disorders. The external validity of the motor domain in the BPS was tested against the objective measure of 24 hours wrist actigraphy, in a second study. The subjective, the quantitative, as well as the global rating of the degree of motor disorders in this patient group showed significant correlations to the acquired motor activity. This result confirmed in a first step the practicability of the motor domain of the BPS, but needs further validation regarding pathological brain alterations. Finally, in a third study (independent from the two other studies), two cerebral Resting State Networks frequently altered in schizophrenia were investigated for the first time using simultaneous EEG/fMRI: The well-known default mode network and the left working memory network. Besides the changes in these fMRI-based networks, there are well-documented findings that patients exhibit alterations in EEG spectra compared to healthy controls. However, only through the multimodal approach it was possible to discover that patients with schizophrenia spectrum disorders have a slower driving frequency of the Resting State Networks compared to the matched healthy controls. Such a dysfunctional coupling between neuronal frequency and functional brain organization could explain in a uni- or multifactorial way (dysfunctional cross-frequency coupling, maturational effects, vigilance fluctuations, task-related suppression), how the typical psychotic symptoms might occur. To conclude, the major contributions presented in this thesis were on one hand the development of a psychopathology rating scale that is based on the assumption of dysfunctional brain networks, as well as the new evidence of a dysfunctional triggering frequency of Resting State Networks from the simultaneous EEG/fMRI study in patients affected by a schizophrenia spectrum disorder.
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We present a general method for inserting proofs in Frege systems for classical logic that produces systems that can internalize their own proofs.
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With the recognition of the importance of evidence-based medicine, there is an emerging need for methods to systematically synthesize available data. Specifically, methods to provide accurate estimates of test characteristics for diagnostic tests are needed to help physicians make better clinical decisions. To provide more flexible approaches for meta-analysis of diagnostic tests, we developed three Bayesian generalized linear models. Two of these models, a bivariate normal and a binomial model, analyzed pairs of sensitivity and specificity values while incorporating the correlation between these two outcome variables. Noninformative independent uniform priors were used for the variance of sensitivity, specificity and correlation. We also applied an inverse Wishart prior to check the sensitivity of the results. The third model was a multinomial model where the test results were modeled as multinomial random variables. All three models can include specific imaging techniques as covariates in order to compare performance. Vague normal priors were assigned to the coefficients of the covariates. The computations were carried out using the 'Bayesian inference using Gibbs sampling' implementation of Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. We investigated the properties of the three proposed models through extensive simulation studies. We also applied these models to a previously published meta-analysis dataset on cervical cancer as well as to an unpublished melanoma dataset. In general, our findings show that the point estimates of sensitivity and specificity were consistent among Bayesian and frequentist bivariate normal and binomial models. However, in the simulation studies, the estimates of the correlation coefficient from Bayesian bivariate models are not as good as those obtained from frequentist estimation regardless of which prior distribution was used for the covariance matrix. The Bayesian multinomial model consistently underestimated the sensitivity and specificity regardless of the sample size and correlation coefficient. In conclusion, the Bayesian bivariate binomial model provides the most flexible framework for future applications because of its following strengths: (1) it facilitates direct comparison between different tests; (2) it captures the variability in both sensitivity and specificity simultaneously as well as the intercorrelation between the two; and (3) it can be directly applied to sparse data without ad hoc correction. ^
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Interaction effect is an important scientific interest for many areas of research. Common approach for investigating the interaction effect of two continuous covariates on a response variable is through a cross-product term in multiple linear regression. In epidemiological studies, the two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) type of method has also been utilized to examine the interaction effect by replacing the continuous covariates with their discretized levels. However, the implications of model assumptions of either approach have not been examined and the statistical validation has only focused on the general method, not specifically for the interaction effect.^ In this dissertation, we investigated the validity of both approaches based on the mathematical assumptions for non-skewed data. We showed that linear regression may not be an appropriate model when the interaction effect exists because it implies a highly skewed distribution for the response variable. We also showed that the normality and constant variance assumptions required by ANOVA are not satisfied in the model where the continuous covariates are replaced with their discretized levels. Therefore, naïve application of ANOVA method may lead to an incorrect conclusion. ^ Given the problems identified above, we proposed a novel method modifying from the traditional ANOVA approach to rigorously evaluate the interaction effect. The analytical expression of the interaction effect was derived based on the conditional distribution of the response variable given the discretized continuous covariates. A testing procedure that combines the p-values from each level of the discretized covariates was developed to test the overall significance of the interaction effect. According to the simulation study, the proposed method is more powerful then the least squares regression and the ANOVA method in detecting the interaction effect when data comes from a trivariate normal distribution. The proposed method was applied to a dataset from the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke (NINDS) tissue plasminogen activator (t-PA) stroke trial, and baseline age-by-weight interaction effect was found significant in predicting the change from baseline in NIHSS at Month-3 among patients received t-PA therapy.^
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Complex diseases, such as cancer, are caused by various genetic and environmental factors, and their interactions. Joint analysis of these factors and their interactions would increase the power to detect risk factors but is statistically. Bayesian generalized linear models using student-t prior distributions on coefficients, is a novel method to simultaneously analyze genetic factors, environmental factors, and interactions. I performed simulation studies using three different disease models and demonstrated that the variable selection performance of Bayesian generalized linear models is comparable to that of Bayesian stochastic search variable selection, an improved method for variable selection when compared to standard methods. I further evaluated the variable selection performance of Bayesian generalized linear models using different numbers of candidate covariates and different sample sizes, and provided a guideline for required sample size to achieve a high power of variable selection using Bayesian generalize linear models, considering different scales of number of candidate covariates. ^ Polymorphisms in folate metabolism genes and nutritional factors have been previously associated with lung cancer risk. In this study, I simultaneously analyzed 115 tag SNPs in folate metabolism genes, 14 nutritional factors, and all possible genetic-nutritional interactions from 1239 lung cancer cases and 1692 controls using Bayesian generalized linear models stratified by never, former, and current smoking status. SNPs in MTRR were significantly associated with lung cancer risk across never, former, and current smokers. In never smokers, three SNPs in TYMS and three gene-nutrient interactions, including an interaction between SHMT1 and vitamin B12, an interaction between MTRR and total fat intake, and an interaction between MTR and alcohol use, were also identified as associated with lung cancer risk. These lung cancer risk factors are worthy of further investigation.^
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Feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV)-based gene transfer systems are being seriously considered for human gene therapy as an alternative to vectors based on primate lentiviruses, a genetically complex group of retroviruses capable of infecting non-dividing cells. The greater phylogenetic distance between the feline and primate lentiviruses is thought to reduce chances of the generation of recombinant viruses. However, safety of FIV-based vector systems has not been tested experimentally. Since primate lentiviruses such as human and simian immunodeficiency viruses (HIV/SIV) can cross-package each other's genomes, we tested this trait with respect to FIV. Unexpectedly, both feline and primate lentiviruses were reciprocally able to both cross-package and propagate each other's RNA genomes. This was largely due to the recognition of viral packaging signals by the heterologous proteins. However, a simple retrovirus such as Mason-Pfizer monkey virus (MPMV) was unable to package FIV RNA. Interestingly, FIV could package MPMV RNA, but not propagate it for further steps of replication. These findings suggest that upon co-infection of the same host, cross-packaging may allow distinct retroviruses to generate chimeric variants with unknown pathogenic potential. ^ In order to understand the packaging determinants in FIV, we conducted a detailed mutational analysis of the region thought to contain FIV packaging signal. We show that the first 90–120 nt of the 5′ untranslated region (UTR) and the first 90 nt of gag were simultaneously required for efficient FIV RNA packaging. These results suggest that the primary FIV packaging signal is multipartite and discontinuous, composed of two core elements separated by 150 nt of the 5 ′UTR. ^ The above studies are being used towards the development of safer FIV-based self-inactivating (SIN) vectors. These vectors are being designed to eliminate the ability of FIV transfer vector RNAs to be mobilized by primate lentiviral proteins that may be present in the target cells. Preliminary test of the first generation of these vectors has revealed that they are incapable of being propagated by feline proteins. The inability of FIV transfer vectors to express packageable vector RNA after integration should greatly increase the safety of FIV vectors for human gene therapy. ^
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This paper describes new approaches to improve the local and global approximation (matching) and modeling capability of Takagi–Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy model. The main aim is obtaining high function approximation accuracy and fast convergence. The main problem encountered is that T-S identification method cannot be applied when the membership functions are overlapped by pairs. This restricts the application of the T-S method because this type of membership function has been widely used during the last 2 decades in the stability, controller design of fuzzy systems and is popular in industrial control applications. The approach developed here can be considered as a generalized version of T-S identification method with optimized performance in approximating nonlinear functions. We propose a noniterative method through weighting of parameters approach and an iterative algorithm by applying the extended Kalman filter, based on the same idea of parameters’ weighting. We show that the Kalman filter is an effective tool in the identification of T-S fuzzy model. A fuzzy controller based linear quadratic regulator is proposed in order to show the effectiveness of the estimation method developed here in control applications. An illustrative example of an inverted pendulum is chosen to evaluate the robustness and remarkable performance of the proposed method locally and globally in comparison with the original T-S model. Simulation results indicate the potential, simplicity, and generality of the algorithm. An illustrative example is chosen to evaluate the robustness. In this paper, we prove that these algorithms converge very fast, thereby making them very practical to use.
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Las gemas se evalúan mediante la norma de clasificación visual (UNE 56544), pero su aplicación en estructuras existentes y grandes escuadrías resulta poco eficaz y conduce a estimaciones demasiado conservadoras. Este trabajo analiza la influencia de las gemas comparando la resistencia de piezas con gemas y piezas correctamente escuadradas. Se han analizado 218 piezas de pino silvestre con dimensiones nominales 150 x 200 x 4.200 mm, de las que 102 presentaban una gema completa a lo largo de toda su longitud y el resto estaban correctamente escuadradas. En las piezas con gema se ha medido la altura de la sección cada 30 cm (altura en cada cara y altura máxima). Para determinar la resistencia se han ensayado todas las piezas de acuerdo a la norma EN 408. Se ha comparado la resistencia obtenida para las piezas con gema, diferenciando si la gema se encuentra en el borde comprimido o en el borde traccionado, con las piezas escuadradas. Puede concluirse que la presencia de gemas disminuye la resistencia excepto si la gema se encuentra en el borde traccionado, en cuyo caso los resultados obtenidos han sido similares a los de las piezas escuadradas. The wanes on structural timber are evaluated according to the visual grading standard (UNE 56544), but its application on existing structures and large cross sections is ineffective and leads to conservative estimations. This paper analyzes the influence of the wanes by comparing the resistance of pieces with wanes and square pieces. 218 pieces of Scotch pine with nominal dimensions 150 x 200 x 4200 mm have been analyzed, 102 of them had a complete wane along its length and the rest were properly squared. The height of the cross section was measured every 30 cm (the height on each side and the maximum height) for the pieces with wane. The bending strength of all the pieces was obtained according to the EN 408 standard. The bending strength of the pieces with wane has been compared with the strength of the squared pieces, taking into account if the wane is positioned on the compressed edge or on the tensioned edge. It can be concluded that the bending strength of the pieces with wanes is lower than the one of squared pieces, except if the wanes are on the tensioned edge of the beam.
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An efficient approach is presented to improve the local and global approximation and modelling capability of Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy model. The main aim is obtaining high function approximation accuracy. The main problem is that T-S identification method cannot be applied when the membership functions are overlapped by pairs. This restricts the use of the T-S method because this type of membership function has been widely used during the last two decades in the stability, controller design and are popular in industrial control applications. The approach developed here can be considered as a generalized version of T-S method with optimized performance in approximating nonlinear functions. A simple approach with few computational effort, based on the well known parameters' weighting method is suggested for tuning T-S parameters to improve the choice of the performance index and minimize it. A global fuzzy controller (FC) based Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR) is proposed in order to show the effectiveness of the estimation method developed here in control applications. Illustrative examples of an inverted pendulum and Van der Pol system are chosen to evaluate the robustness and remarkable performance of the proposed method and the high accuracy obtained in approximating nonlinear and unstable systems locally and globally in comparison with the original T-S model. Simulation results indicate the potential, simplicity and generality of the algorithm.
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The Cross-Entropy (CE) is an efficient method for the estimation of rare-event probabilities and combinatorial optimization. This work presents a novel approach of the CE for optimization of a Soft-Computing controller. A Fuzzy controller was designed to command an unmanned aerial system (UAS) for avoiding collision task. The only sensor used to accomplish this task was a forward camera. The CE is used to reach a near-optimal controller by modifying the scaling factors of the controller inputs. The optimization was realized using the ROS-Gazebo simulation system. In order to evaluate the optimization a big amount of tests were carried out with a real quadcopter.
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The analysis of the interdependence between time series has become an important field of research in the last years, mainly as a result of advances in the characterization of dynamical systems from the signals they produce, the introduction of concepts such as generalized and phase synchronization and the application of information theory to time series analysis. In neurophysiology, different analytical tools stemming from these concepts have added to the ‘traditional’ set of linear methods, which includes the cross-correlation and the coherency function in the time and frequency domain, respectively, or more elaborated tools such as Granger Causality. This increase in the number of approaches to tackle the existence of functional (FC) or effective connectivity (EC) between two (or among many) neural networks, along with the mathematical complexity of the corresponding time series analysis tools, makes it desirable to arrange them into a unified-easy-to-use software package. The goal is to allow neuroscientists, neurophysiologists and researchers from related fields to easily access and make use of these analysis methods from a single integrated toolbox. Here we present HERMES (http://hermes.ctb.upm.es), a toolbox for the Matlab® environment (The Mathworks, Inc), which is designed to study functional and effective brain connectivity from neurophysiological data such as multivariate EEG and/or MEG records. It includes also visualization tools and statistical methods to address the problem of multiple comparisons. We believe that this toolbox will be very helpful to all the researchers working in the emerging field of brain connectivity analysis.
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Los sistemas de recomendación son potentes herramientas de filtrado de información que permiten a usuarios solicitar sugerencias sobre ítems que cubran sus necesidades. Tradicionalmente estas recomendaciones han estado basadas en opiniones de los mismos, así como en datos obtenidos de su consumo histórico o comportamiento en el propio sistema. Sin embargo, debido a la gran penetración y uso de los dispositivos móviles en nuestra sociedad, han surgido nuevas oportunidades en el campo de los sistemas de recomendación móviles gracias a la información contextual que se puede obtener sobre la localización o actividad de los usuarios. Debido a este estilo de vida en el que todo tiende a la movilidad y donde los usuarios están plenamente interconectados, la información contextual no sólo es física, sino que también adquiere una dimensión social. Todo esto ha dado lugar a una nueva área de investigación relacionada con los Sistemas de Recomendación Basados en Contexto (CARS) móviles donde se busca incrementar el nivel de personalización de las recomendaciones al usar dicha información. Por otro lado, este nuevo escenario en el que los usuarios llevan en todo momento un terminal móvil consigo abre la puerta a nuevas formas de recomendar. Sustituir el tradicional patrón de uso basado en petición-respuesta para evolucionar hacia un sistema proactivo es ahora posible. Estos sistemas deben identificar el momento más adecuado para generar una recomendación sin una petición explícita del usuario, siendo para ello necesario analizar su contexto. Esta tesis doctoral propone un conjunto de modelos, algoritmos y métodos orientados a incorporar proactividad en CARS móviles, a la vez que se estudia el impacto que este tipo de recomendaciones tienen en la experiencia de usuario con el fin de extraer importantes conclusiones sobre "qué", "cuándo" y "cómo" se debe notificar proactivamente. Con este propósito, se comienza planteando una arquitectura general para construir CARS móviles en escenarios sociales. Adicionalmente, se propone una nueva forma de representar el proceso de recomendación a través de una interfaz REST, lo que permite crear una arquitectura independiente de dispositivo y plataforma. Los detalles de su implementación tras su puesta en marcha en el entorno bancario español permiten asimismo validar el sistema construido. Tras esto se presenta un novedoso modelo para incorporar proactividad en CARS móviles. Éste muestra las ideas principales que permiten analizar una situación para decidir cuándo es apropiada una recomendación proactiva. Para ello se presentan algoritmos que establecen relaciones entre lo propicia que es una situación y cómo esto influye en los elementos a recomendar. Asimismo, para demostrar la viabilidad de este modelo se describe su aplicación a un escenario de recomendación para herramientas de creación de contenidos educativos. Siguiendo el modelo anterior, se presenta el diseño e implementación de nuevos interfaces móviles de usuario para recomendaciones proactivas, así como los resultados de su evaluación entre usuarios, lo que aportó importantes conclusiones para identificar cuáles son los factores más relevantes a considerar en el diseño de sistemas proactivos. A raíz de los resultados anteriores, el último punto de esta tesis presenta una metodología para calcular cuán apropiada es una situación de cara a recomendar de manera proactiva siguiendo el modelo propuesto. Como conclusión, se describe la validación llevada a cabo tras la aplicación de la arquitectura, modelo de recomendación y métodos descritos en este trabajo en una red social de aprendizaje europea. Finalmente, esta tesis discute las conclusiones obtenidas a lo largo de la extensa investigación llevada a cabo, y que ha propiciado la consecución de una buena base teórica y práctica para la creación de sistemas de recomendación móviles proactivos basados en información contextual. ABSTRACT Recommender systems are powerful information filtering tools which offer users personalized suggestions about items whose aim is to satisfy their needs. Traditionally the information used to make recommendations has been based on users’ ratings or data on the item’s consumption history and transactions carried out in the system. However, due to the remarkable growth in mobile devices in our society, new opportunities have arisen to improve these systems by implementing them in ubiquitous environments which provide rich context-awareness information on their location or current activity. Because of this current all-mobile lifestyle, users are socially connected permanently, which allows their context to be enhanced not only with physical information, but also with a social dimension. As a result of these novel contextual data sources, the advent of mobile Context-Aware Recommender Systems (CARS) as a research area has appeared to improve the level of personalization in recommendation. On the other hand, this new scenario in which users have their mobile devices with them all the time offers the possibility of looking into new ways of making recommendations. Evolving the traditional user request-response pattern to a proactive approach is now possible as a result of this rich contextual scenario. Thus, the key idea is that recommendations are made to the user when the current situation is appropriate, attending to the available contextual information without an explicit user request being necessary. This dissertation proposes a set of models, algorithms and methods to incorporate proactivity into mobile CARS, while the impact of proactivity is studied in terms of user experience to extract significant outcomes as to "what", "when" and "how" proactive recommendations have to be notified to users. To this end, the development of this dissertation starts from the proposal of a general architecture for building mobile CARS in scenarios with rich social data along with a new way of managing a recommendation process through a REST interface to make this architecture multi-device and cross-platform compatible. Details as regards its implementation and evaluation in a Spanish banking scenario are provided to validate its usefulness and user acceptance. After that, a novel model is presented for proactivity in mobile CARS which shows the key ideas related to decide when a situation warrants a proactive recommendation by establishing algorithms that represent the relationship between the appropriateness of a situation and the suitability of the candidate items to be recommended. A validation of these ideas in the area of e-learning authoring tools is also presented. Following the previous model, this dissertation presents the design and implementation of new mobile user interfaces for proactive notifications. The results of an evaluation among users testing these novel interfaces is also shown to study the impact of proactivity in the user experience of mobile CARS, while significant factors associated to proactivity are also identified. The last stage of this dissertation merges the previous outcomes to design a new methodology to calculate the appropriateness of a situation so as to incorporate proactivity into mobile CARS. Additionally, this work provides details about its validation in a European e-learning social network in which the whole architecture and proactive recommendation model together with its methods have been implemented. Finally, this dissertation opens up a discussion about the conclusions obtained throughout this research, resulting in useful information from the different design and implementation stages of proactive mobile CARS.
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Following the processing and validation of JEFF-3.1 performed in 2006 and presented in ND2007, and as a consequence of the latest updated of this library (JEFF-3.1.2) in February 2012, a new processing and validation of JEFF-3.1.2 cross section library is presented in this paper. The processed library in ACE format at ten different temperatures was generated with NJOY-99.364 nuclear data processing system. In addition, NJOY-99 inputs are provided to generate PENDF, GENDF, MATXSR and BOXER formats. The library has undergone strict QA procedures, being compared with other available libraries (e.g. ENDF/B-VII.1) and processing codes as PREPRO-2000 codes. A set of 119 criticality benchmark experiments taken from ICSBEP-2010 has been used for validation purposes.
Resumo:
The analysis of the interdependence between time series has become an important field of research in the last years, mainly as a result of advances in the characterization of dynamical systems from the signals they produce, the introduction of concepts such as generalized and phase synchronization and the application of information theory to time series analysis. In neurophysiology, different analytical tools stemming from these concepts have added to the ?traditional? set of linear methods, which includes the cross-correlation and the coherency function in the time and frequency domain, respectively, or more elaborated tools such as Granger Causality. This increase in the number of approaches to tackle the existence of functional (FC) or effective connectivity (EC) between two (or among many) neural networks, along with the mathematical complexity of the corresponding time series analysis tools, makes it desirable to arrange them into a unified, easy-to-use software package. The goal is to allow neuroscientists, neurophysiologists and researchers from related fields to easily access and make use of these analysis methods from a single integrated toolbox. Here we present HERMES (http://hermes.ctb.upm.es), a toolbox for the Matlab® environment (The Mathworks, Inc), which is designed to study functional and effective brain connectivity from neurophysiological data such as multivariate EEG and/or MEG records. It includes also visualization tools and statistical methods to address the problem of multiple comparisons. We believe that this toolbox will be very helpful to all the researchers working in the emerging field of brain connectivity analysis.