Five (or so) challenges for species distribution modelling

Species distribution modelling is central to both fundamental and applied research in biogeography. Despite widespread use of models, there are still important conceptual ambiguities as well as biotic and algorithmic uncertainties that need to be investigated in order to increase confidence in model results. We identify and discuss five areas of enquiry that are of high importance for species distribution modelling: (1) clarification of the niche concept; (2) improved designs for sampling data for building models; (3) improved parameterization; (4) improved model selection and predictor contribution; and (5) improved model evaluation. The challenges discussed in this essay do not preclude the need for developments of other areas of research in this field. However, they are critical for allowing the science of species distribution modelling to move forward.

Temporal distribution and magnitude of the vulnerability period around stroke depend on stroke subtype.

Background: We aimed to analyze the rate and time distribution of pre- and post-morbid cerebrovascular events in a single ischemic stroke population, and whether these depend on the etiology of the index stroke. Methods: In 2,203 consecutive patients admitted to a single stroke center registry (ASTRAL), the ischemic stroke that led to admission was considered the index event. Frequency distribution and cumulative relative distribution graphs of the most recent and first recurrent event (ischemic stroke, transient ischemic attack, intracranial or subarachnoid hemorrhage) were drawn in weekly and daily intervals for all strokes and for all stroke types. Results: The frequency of events at identical time points before and after the index stroke was mostly reduced in the first week after (vs. before) stroke (1.0 vs. 4.2%, p < 0.001) and the first month (2.7 vs. 7.4%, p < 0.001), and then ebbed over the first year (8.4 vs. 13.1%, p < 0.001). On daily basis, the peak frequency was noticed at day -1 (1.6%) with a reduction to 0.7% on the index day and 0.17% 24 h after. The event rate in patients with atherosclerotic stroke was particularly high around the index event, but 1-year cumulative recurrence rate was similar in all stroke types. Conclusions: We confirm a short window of increased vulnerability in ischemic stroke and show a 4-, 3- and 2-fold reduction in post-stroke events at 1 week, 1 month and 1 year, respectively, compared to identical pre-stroke periods. This break in the 'stroke wave' is particularly striking after atherosclerotic and lacunar strokes.

Momentum distribution in nuclear matter and finite nuclei

A simple method is presented to evaluate the effects of short-range correlations on the momentum distribution of nucleons in nuclear matter within the framework of the Greens function approach. The method provides a very efficient representation of the single-particle Greens function for a correlated system. The reliability of this method is established by comparing its results to those obtained in more elaborate calculations. The sensitivity of the momentum distribution on the nucleon-nucleon interaction and the nuclear density is studied. The momentum distributions of nucleons in finite nuclei are derived from those in nuclear matter using a local-density approximation. These results are compared to those obtained directly for light nuclei like 16O.

Geostatistical determination of heavy-metal distribution in a contaminated site - A case study

A two stage sampling strategy is necessary in order to optimize the study of distribution of pollution in soils and groundwater. First, detailed sampling from a limited area coupled with statistical analysis of the data are used to determine the microvariability of the parameter(s). The results from this detailed analysis are then used to calculate the optimal spacing between samples for the larger scale study. This two stage sampling strategy can result in significant financial savings during subsequent soil or groundwater remediation. This combined sampling and statistical analysis approach is illustrated with an example from a heavy metal contaminated site.

Binding energy and momentum distribution of nuclear matter using Green's functions methods

The influence of hole-hole (h-h) propagation in addition to the conventional particle-particle (p-p) propagation, on the energy per particle and the momentum distribution is investigated for the v2 central interaction which is derived from Reid¿s soft-core potential. The results are compared to Brueckner-Hartree-Fock calculations with a continuous choice for the single-particle (SP) spectrum. Calculation of the energy from a self-consistently determined SP spectrum leads to a lower saturation density. This result is not corroborated by calculating the energy from the hole spectral function, which is, however, not self-consistent. A generalization of previous calculations of the momentum distribution, based on a Goldstone diagram expansion, is introduced that allows the inclusion of h-h contributions to all orders. From this result an alternative calculation of the kinetic energy is obtained. In addition, a direct calculation of the potential energy is presented which is obtained from a solution of the ladder equation containing p-p and h-h propagation to all orders. These results can be considered as the contributions of selected Goldstone diagrams (including p-p and h-h terms on the same footing) to the kinetic and potential energy in which the SP energy is given by the quasiparticle energy. The results for the summation of Goldstone diagrams leads to a different momentum distribution than the one obtained from integrating the hole spectral function which in general gives less depletion of the Fermi sea. Various arguments, based partly on the results that are obtained, are put forward that a self-consistent determination of the spectral functions including the p-p and h-h ladder contributions (using a realistic interaction) will shed light on the question of nuclear saturation at a nonrelativistic level that is consistent with the observed depletion of SP orbitals in finite nuclei.

Distribution of single-particle strength due to short-range and tensor correlations

The distribution of single-particle strength in nuclear matter is calculated for a realistic nucleon-nucleon interaction. The influence of the short-range repulsion and the tensor component of the nuclear force on the spectral functions is to move approximately 13% of the total strength for all single-particle states beyond 100 MeV into the particle domain. This result is related to the abundantly observed quenching phenomena in nuclei which include the reduction of spectroscopic factors observed in (e,ep) reactions and the missing strength in low energy response functions.

Local influence for spatial analysis of soil physical properties and soybean yield using student's t-distribution

The modeling and estimation of the parameters that define the spatial dependence structure of a regionalized variable by geostatistical methods are fundamental, since these parameters, underlying the kriging of unsampled points, allow the construction of thematic maps. One or more atypical observations in the sample data can affect the estimation of these parameters. Thus, the assessment of the combined influence of these observations by the analysis of Local Influence is essential. The purpose of this paper was to propose local influence analysis methods for the regionalized variable, given that it has n-variate Student's t-distribution, and compare it with the analysis of local influence when the same regionalized variable has n-variate normal distribution. These local influence analysis methods were applied to soil physical properties and soybean yield data of an experiment carried out in a 56.68 ha commercial field in western Paraná, Brazil. Results showed that influential values are efficiently determined with n-variate Student's t-distribution.

Distribution and vertical stratification of carbon and nitrogen in soil under different managements in the pampean region of Argentina

One of the expected benefits of no-tillage systems is a higher rate of soil C sequestration. However, higher C retention in soil is not always apparent when no-tillage is applied, due e.g., to substantial differences in soil type and initial C content. The main purpose of this study was to evaluate the potential of no-tillage management to increase the stock of total organic C in soils of the Pampas region in Argentina. Forty crop fields under no-tillage and conventional tillage systems and seven undisturbed soils were sampled. Total organic C, total N, their fractions and stratification ratios and the C storage capacity of the soils under different managements were assessed in samples to a depth of 30 cm, in three layers (0-5, 5-15 and 15-30 cm). The differences between the C pools of the undisturbed and cultivated soils were significant (p < 0.05) and most pronounced in the top (0-5 cm) soil layer, with more active C near the soil surface (undisturbed > no-tillage > conventional tillage). Based on the stratification ratio of the labile C pool (0-5/5-15 cm), the untilled were separated from conventionally tilled areas. Much of the variation in potentially mineralizable C was explained by this active C fraction (R² = 0.61) and by total organic C (R² = 0.67). No-till soils did not accumulate more organic C than conventionally tilled soils in the 0-30 cm layer, but there was substantial stratification of total and active C pools at no till sites. If the C stratification ratio is really an indicator of soil quality, then the C storage potential of no-tillage would be greater than in conventional tillage, at least in the surface layers. Particulate organic C and potentially mineralizable C may be useful to evaluate variations in topsoil organic matter.

Effects of erosion and deposition on particle size distribution of deposited farmland soils on the chinese loess plateau

Particle size distribution (PSD) in the soil profile is strongly related to erosion, deposition, and physical and chemical processes. Water cycling and plant growth are also affected by PSD. Material sedimented upstream of the dam constructions formed large areas of deposited farmland (DF) soils on the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP), which has been the site of the most severe soil erosion in the world. Two DFs without tillage on the CLP were chosen to study the combined effect of erosion and check dams on PSD. Eighty-eight layers (each 10 cm thick) of filled deposited farmland (FDF) soils and 22 layers of silting deposited farmland (SDF) soils of each studied soil profile were collected and 932 soil samples were investigated using laser granulometry. The particle sizes were stratified in both DFs based on soil properties and erosion resistance. The obtained results of clay and silt fractions showed similar horizontal distribution, indicating parallel characteristics of erosion and deposition processes. Fine sand represented the largest fraction, suggesting the preferential detachment of this fraction. The most erodible range of particle sizes was 0.25-0.5 mm, followed by 0.2-0.25 mm in the studied soil profiles. The correlation between particle size and soil water contents tended to increase with increasing water contents in FDF. Due to the abundant shallow groundwater, the relationship between particle size and soil water content in SDF was lost. Further studies on PSD in the DF area are needed to enhance the conservation management of soil and water resources in this region.

Les amphibiens du bassin de l'Aubonne: distribution et analyse d'habitat

La faune amphibienne du bassin de l'Aubonne et de ses affluents entre Ballens et Allaman a été recensée durant deux campagnes de terrain en 2000 et 2001. Douze espèces d'amphibiens ont été observées sur 63 sites répartis sur près de 130 km2. Plus des deux tiers des espèces amphibiennes de Suisse sont représentées dans le secteur 1Laboratoire de Biologie de la Conservation, Institut d'Ecologie, Bâtiment de Biologie CH-1015 Dorigny E-mail: Jerome.Pellet@ie-zea.unil.ch CODEN: BSVAA6 © Société vaudoise des Sciences naturelles Droits de reproduction réservés 42 J. Pellet, S. Dubey et S. Hoehn étudié. Des cartes illustrent la distribution de chaque espèce. Une régression logistique appliquée à chaque espèce tente de mettre en évidence une relation entre les données de présence et 23 paramètres d'habitats mesurés dans 48 sites. Dans 5 cas, un ou deux paramètres d'habitat peuvent être mis en relation avec la répartition de l'amphibien en question. Ainsi, le crapaud commun est positivement corrélé avec la proportion de végétation érigée recouvrant les plans d'eau et négativement corrélé avec l'altitude. Le crapaud calamite est lui fortement lié aux paysages rudéraux et gravières, tandis que la répartition des grenouilles rousses et rieuses est limitée par l'altitude. La rainette verte semble éviter les plans d'eau où la conductivité est trop élevée. Indication dans un paysage rural d'une charge en nitrates, la conductivité d'un plan d'eau peut être considérée comme une mesure indirecte de sa pollution organique. Un suivi du secteur prospecté permettra de connaître l'évolution des populations de chaque espèce présente.

Building predictive models of soil particle-size distribution

Is it possible to build predictive models (PMs) of soil particle-size distribution (psd) in a region with complex geology and a young and unstable land-surface? The main objective of this study was to answer this question. A set of 339 soil samples from a small slope catchment in Southern Brazil was used to build PMs of psd in the surface soil layer. Multiple linear regression models were constructed using terrain attributes (elevation, slope, catchment area, convergence index, and topographic wetness index). The PMs explained more than half of the data variance. This performance is similar to (or even better than) that of the conventional soil mapping approach. For some size fractions, the PM performance can reach 70 %. Largest uncertainties were observed in geologically more complex areas. Therefore, significant improvements in the predictions can only be achieved if accurate geological data is made available. Meanwhile, PMs built on terrain attributes are efficient in predicting the particle-size distribution (psd) of soils in regions of complex geology.

Physiological traits affecting the distribution and wintering strategy of the bat Tadarida teniotis

The ability to enter torpor at low ambient temperature, which enables insectivorous bats to survive seasonal food shortage, is often seen as a prerequisite for colonizing cold environments. Free-tailed bats (Molossidae) show a distribution with a maximum latitudinal extension that appears to be intermediate between truly tropical and temperate-zone bat families. We therefore tested the hypothesis that Tadarida teniotis, the molossid species reaching the highest latitude worldwide (46 degrees N), lacks the extreme physiological adaptations to cold that enable other sympatric bats to enter further into the temperate zone. We studied the metabolism of individuals subjected to various ambient temperatures in the laboratory by respirometry, and we monitored the body temperature of free-ranging individuals in winter and early spring in the Swiss Alps using temperature-sensitive radio-tags. For comparison, metabolic data were obtained from Nyctalus noctula, a typically hibernating vespertilionid bat of similar body size and convergent foraging tactics. The metabolic data support the hypothesis that T. teniotis cannot experience such low ambient temperatures as sympatric temperate-zone vespertilionid bats without incurring much higher energetic costs for thermogenesis. The minimum rate of metabolism in torpor was obtained at 7.5 degrees-10 degrees C in T. teniotis, as compared to 2.5 degrees-5 degrees C in N. noctula. Field data showed that T. teniotis behaves as a classic thermo-conforming hibernator in the Alps, with torpor bouts lasting up to 8 d. This contradicts the widely accepted opinion that Molossidae are nonhibernating bars. However, average body temperature (10 degrees-13 degrees C) and mean arousal frequency (3.4 d in one bat in January) appear to be markedly higher than in other temperate-zone bat species. At the northern border of its range T. teniotis selects relatively warm roosts (crevices in tall, south-exposed limestone cliffs) in winter where temperatures oscillate around 10 degrees C. By this means, T. teniotis apparently avoids the risk of prolonged exposure to energetically critical ambient temperatures in torpor (<6.5 degrees-7.5 degrees C) during cold spells. Possibly shared by other Molossidae, the physiological pattern observed in T. teniotis may clearly be linked to the intermediate latitudinal extension of this bat family.