Climate change and sustainable food production

One of the greatest challenges we face in the twenty-first century is to sustainably feed nine to ten billion people by 2050 while at the same time reducing environmental impact (e.g. greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, biodiversity loss, land use change and loss of ecosystem services). To this end, food security must be delivered. According to the United Nations definition, ‘food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient,safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life’. At the same time as delivering food security, we must also reduce the environmental impact of food production. Future climate change will make an impact upon food production. On the other hand, agriculture contributes up to about 30% of the anthropogenic GHG emissions that drive climate change. The aim of this review is to outline some of the likely impacts of climate change on agriculture, the mitigation measures available within agriculture to reduce GHG emissions and outlines the very significant challenge of feeding nine to ten billion people sustainably under a future climate, with reduced emissions of GHG. Each challenge is in itself enormous, requiring solutions that co-deliver on all aspects. We conclude that the status quo is not an option, and tinkering with the current production systems is unlikely to deliver the food and ecosystems services we need in the future; radical changes in production and consumption are likely to be required over the coming decades.

Ecological intensification: harnessing ecosystem services for food security

Rising demands for agricultural products will increase pressure to further intensify crop production, while negative environmental impacts have to be minimized. Ecological intensification entails the environmentally friendly replacement of anthropogenic inputs and/or enhancement of crop productivity, by including regulating and supporting ecosystem services management in agricultural practices. Effective ecological intensification requires an understanding of the relations between land use at different scales and the community composition of ecosystem service-providing organisms above and below ground, and the flow, stability, contribution to yield, and management costs of the multiple services delivered by these organisms. Research efforts and investments are particularly needed to reduce existing yield gaps by integrating context-appropriate bundles of ecosystem services into crop production systems.

An effective approach for land-cover classification from airborne lidar fused with co-registered data

Airborne lidar provides accurate height information of objects on the earth and has been recognized as a reliable and accurate surveying tool in many applications. In particular, lidar data offer vital and significant features for urban land-cover classification, which is an important task in urban land-use studies. In this article, we present an effective approach in which lidar data fused with its co-registered images (i.e. aerial colour images containing red, green and blue (RGB) bands and near-infrared (NIR) images) and other derived features are used effectively for accurate urban land-cover classification. The proposed approach begins with an initial classification performed by the Dempster–Shafer theory of evidence with a specifically designed basic probability assignment function. It outputs two results, i.e. the initial classification and pseudo-training samples, which are selected automatically according to the combined probability masses. Second, a support vector machine (SVM)-based probability estimator is adopted to compute the class conditional probability (CCP) for each pixel from the pseudo-training samples. Finally, a Markov random field (MRF) model is established to combine spatial contextual information into the classification. In this stage, the initial classification result and the CCP are exploited. An efficient belief propagation (EBP) algorithm is developed to search for the global minimum-energy solution for the maximum a posteriori (MAP)-MRF framework in which three techniques are developed to speed up the standard belief propagation (BP) algorithm. Lidar and its co-registered data acquired by Toposys Falcon II are used in performance tests. The experimental results prove that fusing the height data and optical images is particularly suited for urban land-cover classification. There is no training sample needed in the proposed approach, and the computational cost is relatively low. An average classification accuracy of 93.63% is achieved.

Competition for land

A key challenge for humanity is how a future global population of 9 billion can all be fed healthily and sustainably. Here, we review how competition for land is influenced by other drivers and pressures, examine land-use change over the past 20 years and consider future changes over the next 40 years. Competition for land, in itself, is not a driver affecting food and farming in the future, but is an emergent property of other drivers and pressures. Modelling studies suggest that future policy decisions in the agriculture, forestry, energy and conservation sectors could have profound effects, with different demands for land to supply multiple ecosystem services usually intensifying competition for land in the future. In addition to policies addressing agriculture and food production, further policies addressing the primary drivers of competition for land (population growth, dietary preference, protected areas, forest policy) could have significant impacts in reducing competition for land. Technologies for increasing per-area productivity of agricultural land will also be necessary. Key uncertainties in our projections of competition for land in the future relate predominantly to uncertainties in the drivers and pressures within the scenarios, in the models and data used in the projections and in the policy interventions assumed to affect the drivers and pressures in the future.

Evolution of immune systems: specificity and autoreactivity

Multicellularity evolved well before 600 million years ago, and all multicellular animals have evolved since then with the need to protect against pathogens. There is no reason to expect their immune systems to be any less sophisticated than ours. The vertebrate system, based on rearranging immunoglobulin-superfamily domains, appears to have evolved partly as a result of chance insertion of RAG genes by horizontal transfer. Remarkably sophisticated systems for expansion of immunological repertoire have evolved in parallel in many groups of organisms. Vaccination of invertebrates against commercially important pathogens has been empirically successful, and suggests that the definition of an adaptive and innate immune system should no longer depend on the presence of memory and specificity, since these terms are hard to define in themselves. The evolution of randomly-created immunological repertoire also carries with it the potential for generating autoreactive specificities and consequent autoimmune damage.While invertebrates may use systems analogous to ours to control autoreactive specificities, they may have evolved alternative mechanisms which operate either at the level of individuals-within-populations rather than cells-within-individuals, by linking self-reactive specificities to regulatory pathways and non-self-reactive to effector pathways.

Palm oil, land rights and ecosystem services in Gbarpolu County, Liberia

As part of the rebuilding efforts following the long civil war, the Liberian government has renegotiated long-term contracts with international investors to exploit natural resources. Substantial areas of land have been handed out in large-scale concessions across Liberia during the last five years. While this may promote economic growth at the national level, such concessions are likely to have major environmental, social and economic impacts on local communities, who may not have been consulted on the proposed developments. This report examines the potential socio-economic and environmental impacts of a proposed large-scale oil palm concession in Bopolu District, Gbarpolu County in Liberia. The research provided an in-depth mapping of current resource use, livelihoods and ecosystems services, in addition to analysis of community consultation and perceptions of the potential impacts of the proposed development. This case study of a palm oil concession in Liberia highlights wider policy considerations regarding large-scale land acquisitions in the global South: • Formal mechanisms may be needed to ensure the process of Free, Prior, Informed Consent takes place effectively with affected communities and community land rights are safeguarded. • Rigorous Environmental and Social Impact Assessments need to be conducted before operations start. Accurate mapping of customary land rights, community resources and cultural sites, livelihoods, land use, biodiversity and ecosystems services is a critical tool in this process. • Greater clarity and awareness-raising of land tenure laws and policies is needed at all levels. Good governance and capacity-building of key institutions would help to ensure effective implementation of relevant laws and policies. • Efforts are needed to improve basic services and infrastructure in rural communities and invest in food crop cultivation in order to enhance food security and poverty alleviation. Increasing access to inputs, equipment, training and advice is especially important if male and female farmers are no longer able to practice shifting cultivation due to the reduction/ loss of customary land and the need to farm more intensively on smaller areas of land.

Beyond urban legends : an emerging framework of urban ecology, as illustrated by the Baltimore Ecosystem Study

The emerging discipline of urban ecology is shifting focus from ecological processes embedded within cities to integrative studies of large urban areas as biophysical-social complexes. Yet this discipline lacks a theory. Results from the Baltimore Ecosystem Study, part of the Long Term Ecological Research Network, expose new assumptions and test existing assumptions about urban ecosystems. The findings suggest a broader range of structural and functional relationships than is often assumed for urban ecological systems. We address the relationships between social status and awareness of environmental problems, and between race and environmental hazard. We present patterns of species diversity, riparian function, and stream nitrate loading. In addition, we probe the suitability of land-use models, the diversity of soils, and the potential for urban carbon sequestration. Finally, we illustrate lags between social patterns and vegetation, the biogeochemistry of lawns, ecosystem nutrient retention, and social-biophysical feedbacks. These results suggest a framework for a theory of urban ecosystems.

Arid rangeland production systems of Southern Africa

This paper analyses and describes the semi-arid rangelands of southern Africa. These rangelands are found in the grassland, savanna and thicket biomes and comprise all the remaining land which does not support commercial rainfed agriculture, in extent some 778221 km2 (66% of South Africa). Although production is primarily driven by rainfall, rangeland management systems have been developed to cope with the uncertain climate and to ameliorate the impact of inter-annual variation in production. We describe the rangeland types that occur, provide an insight into their management and examine some constraints on livestock production which the socio-economic environment presents. We describe the grazing management systems which apply under the two land tenure systems, namely freehold and leasehold tenure, and discuss how each of these systems effects livestock production, management and resource condition.

A decadal view of biodiversity informatics: challenges and priorities

Biodiversity informatics plays a central enabling role in the research community's efforts to address scientific conservation and sustainability issues. Great strides have been made in the past decade establishing a framework for sharing data, where taxonomy and systematics has been perceived as the most prominent discipline involved. To some extent this is inevitable, given the use of species names as the pivot around which information is organised. To address the urgent questions around conservation, land-use, environmental change, sustainability, food security and ecosystem services that are facing Governments worldwide, we need to understand how the ecosystem works. So, we need a systems approach to understanding biodiversity that moves significantly beyond taxonomy and species observations. Such an approach needs to look at the whole system to address species interactions, both with their environment and with other species.It is clear that some barriers to progress are sociological, basically persuading people to use the technological solutions that are already available. This is best addressed by developing more effective systems that deliver immediate benefit to the user, hiding the majority of the technology behind simple user interfaces. An infrastructure should be a space in which activities take place and, as such, should be effectively invisible.This community consultation paper positions the role of biodiversity informatics, for the next decade, presenting the actions needed to link the various biodiversity infrastructures invisibly and to facilitate understanding that can support both business and policy-makers. The community considers the goal in biodiversity informatics to be full integration of the biodiversity research community, including citizens' science, through a commonly-shared, sustainable e-infrastructure across all sub-disciplines that reliably serves science and society alike.

The water quality of the River Enborne, UK: observations from high-frequency Monitoring in a rural, lowland river system

This paper reports the results of a 2-year study of water quality in the River Enborne, a rural river in lowland England. Concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus species and other chemical determinands were monitored both at high-frequency (hourly), using automated in situ instrumentation, and by manual weekly sampling and laboratory analysis. The catchment land use is largely agricultural, with a population density of 123 persons km−2. The river water is largely derived from calcareous groundwater, and there are high nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations. Agricultural fertiliser is the dominant source of annual loads of both nitrogen and phosphorus. However, the data show that sewage effluent discharges have a disproportionate effect on the river nitrogen and phosphorus dynamics. At least 38% of the catchment population use septic tank systems, but the effects are hard to quantify as only 6% are officially registered, and the characteristics of the others are unknown. Only 4% of the phosphorus input and 9% of the nitrogen input is exported from the catchment by the river, highlighting the importance of catchment process understanding in predicting nutrient concentrations. High-frequency monitoring will be a key to developing this vital process understanding.

Fire in the Earth System

Fire is an important component of the Earth System that is tightly coupled with climate, vegetation, biogeochemical cycles, and human activities. Observations of how fire regimes change on seasonal to millennial timescales are providing an improved understanding of the hierarchy of controls on fire regimes. Climate is the principal control on fire regimes, although human activities have had an increasing influence on the distribution and incidence of fire in recent centuries. Understanding of the controls and variability of fire also underpins the development of models, both conceptual and numerical, that allow us to predict how future climate and land-use changes might influence fire regimes. Although fires in fire-adapted ecosystems can be important for biodiversity and ecosystem function, positive effects are being increasingly outweighed by losses of ecosystem services. As humans encroach further into the natural habitat of fire, social and economic costs are also escalating. The prospect of near-term rapid and large climate changes, and the escalating costs of large wildfires, necessitates a radical re-thinking and the development of approaches to fire management that promote the more harmonious co-existence of fire and people.

PERSiST: a flexible rainfall-runoff modelling toolkit for use with the INCA family of models

Runoff generation processes and pathways vary widely between catchments. Credible simulations of solute and pollutant transport in surface waters are dependent on models which facilitate appropriate, catchment-specific representations of perceptual models of the runoff generation process. Here, we present a flexible, semi-distributed landscape-scale rainfall-runoff modelling toolkit suitable for simulating a broad range of user-specified perceptual models of runoff generation and stream flow occurring in different climatic regions and landscape types. PERSiST (the Precipitation, Evapotranspiration and Runoff Simulator for Solute Transport) is designed for simulating present-day hydrology; projecting possible future effects of climate or land use change on runoff and catchment water storage; and generating hydrologic inputs for the Integrated Catchments (INCA) family of models. PERSiST has limited data requirements and is calibrated using observed time series of precipitation, air temperature and runoff at one or more points in a river network. Here, we apply PERSiST to the river Thames in the UK and describe a Monte Carlo tool for model calibration, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis

Urban and agricultural soils: conflicts and trade-offs in the optimization of ecosystem services

On-going human population growth and changing patterns of resource consumption are increasing global demand for ecosystem services, many of which are provided by soils. Some of these ecosystem services are linearly related to the surface area of pervious soil, whereas others show non-linear relationships, making ecosystem service optimization a complex task. As limited land availability creates conflicting demands among various types of land use, a central challenge is how to weigh these conflicting interests and how to achieve the best solutions possible from a perspective of sustainable societal development. These conflicting interests become most apparent in soils that are the most heavily used by humans for specific purposes: urban soils used for green spaces, housing, and other infrastructure and agricultural soils for producing food, fibres and biofuels. We argue that, despite their seemingly divergent uses of land, agricultural and urban soils share common features with regards to interactions between ecosystem services, and that the trade-offs associated with decision-making, while scale- and context-dependent, can be surprisingly similar between the two systems. We propose that the trade-offs within land use types and their soil-related ecosystems services are often disproportional, and quantifying these will enable ecologists and soil scientists to help policy makers optimizing management decisions when confronted with demands for multiple services under limited land availability.

Cashew cultivation, access to land and food security in Brong-Ahafo Region, Ghana: Preventing the intergenerational transmission of poverty

This research aimed to investigate the implications of changing agricultural land use from food production towards increased cashew cultivation for food security and poverty alleviation in Jaman North District, Brong-Ahafo Region of Ghana. Based on qualitative, participatory research with a total of 60 participants, the research found that increased cashew production had led to improvements in living standards for many farmers and their children over recent years. Global demand for cashew is projected to continue to grow rapidly in the immediate future and cashew-growing areas of Ghana are well placed to respond to this demand. Cashew farmers however were subject to price fluctuations in the value of Raw Cashew Nuts (RCN) due to unequal power relations with intermediaries and export buyer companies and global markets, in addition to other vulnerabilities that constrained the quality and quantity of cashew and food crops they could produce. The expansion of cashew plantations was leading to pressure on the remaining family lands available for food crop production, which community members feared could potentially compromise the food security of rural communities and the land inheritance of future generations.

Metabolic theory predicts whole-ecosystem properties

Understanding the effects of individual organisms on material cycles and energy fluxes within ecosystems is central to predicting the impacts of human-caused changes on climate, land use, and biodiversity. Here we present a theory that integrates metabolic (organism-based bottom-up) and systems (ecosystem-based top-down) approaches to characterize how the metabolism of individuals affects the flows and stores of materials and energy in ecosystems. The theory predicts how the average residence time of carbon molecules, total system throughflow (TST), and amount of recycling vary with the body size and temperature of the organisms and with trophic organization. We evaluate the theory by comparing theoretical predictions with outputs of numerical models designed to simulate diverse ecosystem types and with empirical data for real ecosystems. Although residence times within different ecosystems vary by orders of magnitude—from weeks in warm pelagic oceans with minute phytoplankton producers to centuries in cold forests with large tree producers—as predicted, all ecosystems fall along a single line: residence time increases linearly with slope = 1.0 with the ratio of whole-ecosystem biomass to primary productivity (B/P). TST was affected predominantly by primary productivity and recycling by the transfer of energy from microbial decomposers to animal consumers. The theory provides a robust basis for estimating the flux and storage of energy, carbon, and other materials in terrestrial, marine, and freshwater ecosystems and for quantifying the roles of different kinds of organisms and environments at scales from local ecosystems to the biosphere.