Two ways to common knowledge

It is not clear what a system for evidence-based common knowledge should look like if common knowledge is treated as a greatest fixed point. This paper is a preliminary step towards such a system. We argue that the standard induction rule is not well suited to axiomatize evidence-based common knowledge. As an alternative, we study two different deductive systems for the logic of common knowledge. The first system makes use of an induction axiom whereas the second one is based on co-inductive proof theory. We show the soundness and completeness for both systems.

International survey of primary and revision total knee replacement

Purpose Total knee arthroplasty (TKA) is currently the international standard of care for treating degenerative and rheumatologic knee joint disease, as well as certain knee joint fractures. We sought to answer the following three research questions: (1) What is the international variance in primary and revision TKA rates around the world? (2) How do patient demographics (e.g., age, gender) vary internationally? (3) How have the rates of TKA utilization changed over time? Methods The survey included 18 countries with a total population of 755 million, and an estimated 1,324,000 annual primary and revision total knee procedures. Ten national inpatient databases were queried for this study from Canada, the United States, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, and Switzerland. Inpatient data were also compared with published registry data for eight countries with operating arthroplasty registers (Denmark, England & Wales, Norway, Romania, Scotland, Sweden, Australia, and New Zealand). Results The average and median rate of primary and revision (combined) total knee replacement was 175 and 149 procedures/100,000 population, respectively, and ranged between 8.8 and 234 procedures/100,000 population. We observed that the procedure rate significantly increased over time for the countries in which historical data were available. The compound annual growth in the incidence of TKA ranged by country from 5.3% (France) to 17% (Portugal). We observed a nearly 27-fold range of TKA utilization rates between the 18 different countries included in the survey. Conclusion It is apparent from the results of this study that the demand for TKA has risen substantially over the past decade in countries around the world.

Performance of the pediatric-sized i-gel compared with the Ambu AuraOnce laryngeal mask in anesthetized and ventilated children

This prospective, randomized, controlled trial compares the performance of the pediatric i-gel (Intersurgical Ltd., Wokingham, United Kingdom) with the Ambu AuraOnce laryngeal mask (Ambu A/S, Ballerup, Denmark) in anesthetized and ventilated children.

Chlamydia infection, pelvic inflammatory disease, ectopic pregnancy and infertility: cross-national study

Objectives To describe, using routine data in selected countries, chlamydia control activities and rates of chlamydia infection, pelvic inflammatory disease (PID), ectopic pregnancy and infertility and to compare trends in chlamydia positivity with rates of PID and ectopic pregnancy. Methods Cross-national comparison including national data from Australia, Denmark, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Sweden and Switzerland. Routine data sources about chlamydia diagnosis and testing and International Classification of Disease-10 coded diagnoses of PID, ectopic pregnancy and infertility in women aged 15–39 years from 1999 to 2008 were described. Trends over time and relevant associations were examined using Poisson regression. Results Opportunistic chlamydia testing was recommended in all countries except Switzerland, but target groups differed. Rates of chlamydia testing were highest in New Zealand. Chlamydia positivity was similar in all countries with available data (Denmark, New Zealand and Sweden) and increased over time. Increasing chlamydia positivity rates were associated with decreasing PID rates in Denmark and Sweden and with decreasing ectopic pregnancy rates in Denmark, New Zealand and Sweden. Ectopic pregnancy rates appeared to increase over time in 15–19-year-olds in several countries. Trends in infertility diagnoses were very variable. Conclusions The intensity of recommendations about chlamydia control varied between countries but was not consistently related to levels of chlamydia diagnosis or testing. Relationships between levels of chlamydia infection and complication rates between or within countries over time were not straightforward. Development and validation of indicators of chlamydia-related morbidity that can be compared across countries and over time should be pursued.

Future storm surge impacts on insurable losses for the North Sea region

The influence of climate change on storm surges including increased mean sea level change and the associated insurable losses are assessed for the North Sea basin. In doing so, the newly developed approach couples a dynamical storm surge model with a loss model. The key element of the approach is the generation of a probabilistic storm surge event set. Together with parametrizations of the inland propagation and the coastal protection failure probability this enables the estimation of annual expected losses. The sensitivity to the parametrizations is rather weak except when the assumption of high level of increased mean sea level change is made. Applying this approach to future scenarios shows a substantial increase of insurable losses with respect to the present day. Superimposing different mean sea level changes shows a nonlinear behavior at the country level, as the future storm surge changes are higher for Germany and Denmark. Thus, the study exhibits the necessity to assess the socio-economic impacts of coastal floods by combining the expected sea level rise with storm surge projections.

A Comparative Study of Central and Eastern European Social Policy Concernig Mental Disability

The main goal of this project was to identity whether an imported system of social policy can be suitable for a host country, and if not why not. Romanian social policy concerning the mentally disabled represents a paradoxical situation in that while social policy is designed to ensure both an institutional structure and a juridical environment, in practice it is far from successful. The central question which Ms. Ciumageanu asked therefore was whether this failure was due to systemic factors, or whether the problem lay in reworking an imported social policy system to meet local needs. She took a comparative approach, also considering both the Scandinavian model of social policy, particularly the Danish model which has been adopted in Romania, and the Hungarian system, which has inherited a similar universal welfare system and perpetuated it to some extent. In order to verify her hypothesis, she also studied the transformation of the welfare system in Great Britain, which meant a shift from state responsibility towards community care. In all these she concentrated on two major aspects: the structural design within the different countries and, at a micro level, the societal response. Following her analyses of the various in the other countries concerned, Ms. Ciumageanu concluded that the major differences lie first in the difference between the stages of policy design. Here Denmark is the most advanced and Romania the most backwards. Denmark has a fairly elaborate infrastructure, Britain a system with may gaps to bridge, and Hungary and Romania are struggling with severe difficulties owing both to the inherited structure and the limits imposed by an inadequate GDP. While in Denmark and Britain, mental patients are integrated into an elaborate system of care, designed and administered by the state (in Denmark) or communities (in Britain), in Hungary and Romania, the state designs and fails to implement the policy and community support is minimal, partly due to the lack of a fully developed civil society. At the micro level the differences are similar. While in Denmark and Britain there is a consensus about the roles of the state and of civil societies (although at different levels in the two countries, with the state being more supportive in Denmark), in Romania and to a considerable extent in Hungary, civil society tends to expect too much from the state, which in its turn is withdrawing faster from its social roles than from its economic ones, generating a gap between the welfare state and the market economy and disadvantaging the expected transition from a welfare state to a welfare society and, implicitly, the societal response towards those mentally disabled persons in it. On an intermediate level, the factors influencing social policy as a whole were much the same for Hungary and Romania. Economic factors include the accumulated economic resources of both state and citizens, and the inherited pattern of redistribution, as well as the infrastructure; institutional resources include the role of the state and the efficiency of the state bureaucracy, the strength and efficiency of the state apparatus, political stability and the complexity of political democratisation, the introduction of market institutions, the strength of civil society and civic sector institutions. From the standpoint of the societal response, some factors were common to all countries, particularly the historical context, the collective and institutional memories and established patterns of behaviour. In the specific case of Romania, general structural and environmental factors - industrialisation and forced urbanisation - have had a definite influence on family structure, values and behavioural patterns. The analysis of Romanian social policy revealed several causes for failure to date. The first was the instability of the policy and the failure to consider the structural network involved in developing it, rather than just the results obtained. The second was the failure to take into account the relationship between the individual and the group in all its aspects, followed by the lack of active assistance for prevention, re-socialisation or professional integration of persons with mental disabilities. Finally, the state fails to recognise its inability to support an expensive psychiatric enterprise and does not provide any incentive to the private sector. This creates tremendous social costs for both the state and the individual. NGOs working in the field in Romania have been somewhat more successful but are still limited by their lack of funding and personnel and the idea of a combined system is as yet utopian in the circumstances in the country.

Panel 4: Transnational Memory of Mass Violence

Panel 4: Transnational Memory of Mass Violence Anne Waehrens, University of Copenhagen/Danish Institute for International Studies, Denmark: “Is There a Shared European memory? Holocaust Remembrance in the European Parliament after 1989" Download paper (login required) Ran Zwigenberg, City University of New York: “The Hiroshima-Auschwitz Peace March and the Globalization of Victimhood” Download paper (login required) Mark Zaurov, University of Hamburg, Germany: "The Current Situation of Human Rights for Deaf People with Respect to the Deaf Holocaust" Download paper (login required) Chair: Natalya Lazar and Jody Manning, Clark UniversityComment: Ken McLean, Clark University

Detection of Progressive Deterioration in Early Onset Schizophrenia with a New Statistical Method

Much controversy exists over whether the course of schizophrenia, as defined by the lengths of repeated community tenures, is progressively ameliorating or deteriorating. This article employs a new statistical method proposed by Wang and Chen (2000) to analyze the Denmark registry data in Eaton, et al (1992). The new statistical method correctly handles the bias caused by induced informative censoring, which is an interaction of the heterogeneity of schizophrenia patients and long-term follow-up. The analysis shows a progressive deterioration pattern in terms of community tenures for the full registry cohort, rather than a progressive amelioration pattern as reported for a selected sub-cohort in Eaton, et al (1992). When adjusted for the long-term chronicity of calendar time, no significant progressive pattern was found for the full cohort.

Nonparametric Estimation of the Bivariate Recurrence Time Distribution

This paper considers statistical models in which two different types of events, such as the diagnosis of a disease and the remission of the disease, occur alternately over time and are observed subject to right censoring. We propose nonparametric estimators for the joint distribution of bivariate recurrence times and the marginal distribution of the first recurrence time. In general, the marginal distribution of the second recurrence time cannot be estimated due to an identifiability problem, but a conditional distribution of the second recurrence time can be estimated non-parametrically. In literature, statistical methods have been developed to estimate the joint distribution of bivariate recurrence times based on data of the first pair of censored bivariate recurrence times. These methods are efficient in the current model because recurrence times of higher orders are not used. Asymptotic properties of the estimators are established. Numerical studies demonstrate the estimator performs well with practical sample sizes. We apply the proposed method to a Denmark psychiatric case register data set for illustration of the methods and theory.

CT data-based navigation for post-mortem biopsy-a feasibility study

INTRODUCTION: Recent advances in medical imaging have brought post-mortem minimally invasive computed tomography (CT) guided percutaneous biopsy to public attention. AIMS: The goal of the following study was to facilitate and automate post-mortem biopsy, to suppress radiation exposure to the investigator, as may occur when tissue sampling under computer tomographic guidance, and to minimize the number of needle insertion attempts for each target for a single puncture. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Clinically approved and post-mortem tested ACN-III biopsy core needles (14 gauge x 160 mm) with an automatic pistol device (Bard Magnum, Medical Device Technologies, Denmark) were used for probe sampling. The needles were navigated in gelatine/peas phantom, ex vivo porcine model and subsequently in two human bodies using a navigation system (MEM centre/ISTB Medical Application Framework, Marvin, Bern, Switzerland) with guidance frame and a CT (Emotion 6, Siemens, Germany). RESULTS: Biopsy of all peas could be performed within a single attempt. The average distance between the inserted needle tip and the pea centre was 1.4mm (n=10; SD 0.065 mm; range 0-2.3 mm). The targets in the porcine liver were also accurately punctured. The average of the distance between the needle tip and the target was 0.5 mm (range 0-1 mm). Biopsies of brain, heart, lung, liver, pancreas, spleen, and kidney were performed on human corpses. For each target the biopsy needle was only inserted once. The examination of one body with sampling of tissue probes at the above-mentioned locations took approximately 45 min. CONCLUSIONS: Post-mortem navigated biopsy can reliably provide tissue samples from different body locations. Since the continuous update of positional data of the body and the biopsy needle is performed using optical tracking, no control CT images verifying the positional data are necessary and no radiation exposure to the investigator need be taken into account. Furthermore, the number of needle insertions for each target can be minimized to a single one with the ex vivo proven adequate accuracy and, in contrast to conventional CT guided biopsy, the insertion angle may be oblique. Navigation for minimally invasive tissue sampling is a useful addition to post-mortem CT guided biopsy.

Identification of novel mutations in X-linked retinitis pigmentosa families and implications for diagnostic testing

PURPOSE: The goal of this study was to identify mutations in X-chromosomal genes associated with retinitis pigmentosa (RP) in patients from Germany, The Netherlands, Denmark, and Switzerland. METHODS: In addition to all coding exons of RP2, exons 1 through 15, 9a, ORF15, 15a and 15b of RPGR were screened for mutations. PCR products were amplified from genomic DNA extracted from blood samples and analyzed by direct sequencing. In one family with apparently dominant inheritance of RP, linkage analysis identified an interval on the X chromosome containing RPGR, and mutation screening revealed a pathogenic variant in this gene. Patients of this family were examined clinically and by X-inactivation studies. RESULTS: This study included 141 RP families with possible X-chromosomal inheritance. In total, we identified 46 families with pathogenic sequence alterations in RPGR and RP2, of which 17 mutations have not been described previously. Two of the novel mutations represent the most 3'-terminal pathogenic sequence variants in RPGR and RP2 reported to date. In exon ORF15 of RPGR, we found eight novel and 14 known mutations. All lead to a disruption of open reading frame. Of the families with suggested X-chromosomal inheritance, 35% showed mutations in ORF15. In addition, we found five novel mutations in other exons of RPGR and four in RP2. Deletions in ORF15 of RPGR were identified in three families in which female carriers showed variable manifestation of the phenotype. Furthermore, an ORF15 mutation was found in an RP patient who additionally carries a 6.4 kbp deletion downstream of the coding region of exon ORF15. We did not identify mutations in 39 sporadic male cases from Switzerland. CONCLUSIONS: RPGR mutations were confirmed to be the most frequent cause of RP in families with an X-chromosomal inheritance pattern. We propose a screening strategy to provide molecular diagnostics in these families.