Estimating the effects of ambient temperature on mortality : methodological challenges and proposed solutions

The health impacts of exposure to ambient temperature have been drawing increasing attention from the environmental health research community, government, society, industries, and the public. Case-crossover and time series models are most commonly used to examine the effects of ambient temperature on mortality. However, some key methodological issues remain to be addressed. For example, few studies have used spatiotemporal models to assess the effects of spatial temperatures on mortality. Few studies have used a case-crossover design to examine the delayed (distributed lag) and non-linear relationship between temperature and mortality. Also, little evidence is available on the effects of temperature changes on mortality, and on differences in heat-related mortality over time. This thesis aimed to address the following research questions: 1. How to combine case-crossover design and distributed lag non-linear models? 2. Is there any significant difference in effect estimates between time series and spatiotemporal models? 3. How to assess the effects of temperature changes between neighbouring days on mortality? 4. Is there any change in temperature effects on mortality over time? To combine the case-crossover design and distributed lag non-linear model, datasets including deaths, and weather conditions (minimum temperature, mean temperature, maximum temperature, and relative humidity), and air pollution were acquired from Tianjin China, for the years 2005 to 2007. I demonstrated how to combine the case-crossover design with a distributed lag non-linear model. This allows the case-crossover design to estimate the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature whilst controlling for seasonality. There was consistent U-shaped relationship between temperature and mortality. Cold effects were delayed by 3 days, and persisted for 10 days. Hot effects were acute and lasted for three days, and were followed by mortality displacement for non-accidental, cardiopulmonary, and cardiovascular deaths. Mean temperature was a better predictor of mortality (based on model fit) than maximum or minimum temperature. It is still unclear whether spatiotemporal models using spatial temperature exposure produce better estimates of mortality risk compared with time series models that use a single site’s temperature or averaged temperature from a network of sites. Daily mortality data were obtained from 163 locations across Brisbane city, Australia from 2000 to 2004. Ordinary kriging was used to interpolate spatial temperatures across the city based on 19 monitoring sites. A spatiotemporal model was used to examine the impact of spatial temperature on mortality. A time series model was used to assess the effects of single site’s temperature, and averaged temperature from 3 monitoring sites on mortality. Squared Pearson scaled residuals were used to check the model fit. The results of this study show that even though spatiotemporal models gave a better model fit than time series models, spatiotemporal and time series models gave similar effect estimates. Time series analyses using temperature recorded from a single monitoring site or average temperature of multiple sites were equally good at estimating the association between temperature and mortality as compared with a spatiotemporal model. A time series Poisson regression model was used to estimate the association between temperature change and mortality in summer in Brisbane, Australia during 1996–2004 and Los Angeles, United States during 1987–2000. Temperature change was calculated by the current day's mean temperature minus the previous day's mean. In Brisbane, a drop of more than 3 �C in temperature between days was associated with relative risks (RRs) of 1.16 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.02, 1.31) for non-external mortality (NEM), 1.19 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.41) for NEM in females, and 1.44 (95% CI: 1.10, 1.89) for NEM aged 65.74 years. An increase of more than 3 �C was associated with RRs of 1.35 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.77) for cardiovascular mortality and 1.67 (95% CI: 1.15, 2.43) for people aged < 65 years. In Los Angeles, only a drop of more than 3 �C was significantly associated with RRs of 1.13 (95% CI: 1.05, 1.22) for total NEM, 1.25 (95% CI: 1.13, 1.39) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1.25 (95% CI: 1.14, 1.39) for people aged . 75 years. In both cities, there were joint effects of temperature change and mean temperature on NEM. A change in temperature of more than 3 �C, whether positive or negative, has an adverse impact on mortality even after controlling for mean temperature. I examined the variation in the effects of high temperatures on elderly mortality (age . 75 years) by year, city and region for 83 large US cities between 1987 and 2000. High temperature days were defined as two or more consecutive days with temperatures above the 90th percentile for each city during each warm season (May 1 to September 30). The mortality risk for high temperatures was decomposed into: a "main effect" due to high temperatures using a distributed lag non-linear function, and an "added effect" due to consecutive high temperature days. I pooled yearly effects across regions and overall effects at both regional and national levels. The effects of high temperature (both main and added effects) on elderly mortality varied greatly by year, city and region. The years with higher heat-related mortality were often followed by those with relatively lower mortality. Understanding this variability in the effects of high temperatures is important for the development of heat-warning systems. In conclusion, this thesis makes contribution in several aspects. Case-crossover design was combined with distribute lag non-linear model to assess the effects of temperature on mortality in Tianjin. This makes the case-crossover design flexibly estimate the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature. Both extreme cold and high temperatures increased the risk of mortality in Tianjin. Time series model using single site’s temperature or averaged temperature from some sites can be used to examine the effects of temperature on mortality. Temperature change (no matter significant temperature drop or great temperature increase) increases the risk of mortality. The high temperature effect on mortality is highly variable from year to year.

Feminist ethics and menopause : autonomy and decision-making in primary medical care

The construction of menopause as a long-term risk to health and the adoption of discourses of prevention has made necessary a decision by women about medical treatment; specifically regarding the use of hormone replacement therapy. In a study of general practitioners’ accounts of menopause and treatment in Australia, women's ‘choice’, ‘informed decision-making’ and ‘empowerment’ were key themes through which primary medical care for women at menopause was presented. These accounts create a position for women defined by the concept of individual choice and an ethic of autonomy. These data are a basis for theorising more generally in this paper. We critically examine the construct of ‘informed decision-making’ in relation to several approaches to ethics including bioethics and a range of feminist ethics. We identify the intensification of power relations produced by an ethic of autonomy and discuss the ways these considerations inform a feminist ethics of decision-making by women. We argue that an ‘ethic of autonomy’ and an ‘offer of choice’ in relation to health care for women at menopause, far from being emancipatory, serves to intensify power relations. The dichotomy of choice, to take or not to take hormone replacement therapy, is required to be a choice and is embedded in relations of power and bioethical discourse that construct meanings about what constitutes decision-making at menopause. The deployment of the principle of autonomy in medical practice limits decision-making by women precisely because it is detached from the construction of meaning and the self and makes invisible the relations of power of which it is a part.

Recent emergence of dengue virus serotype 4 in French Polynesia results from multiple introductions from other south pacific islands

BACKGROUND: Infection by dengue virus (DENV) is a major public health concern in hundreds of tropical and subtropical countries. French Polynesia (FP) regularly experiences epidemics that initiate, or are consecutive to, DENV circulation in other South Pacific Island Countries (SPICs). In January 2009, after a decade of serotype 1 (DENV-1) circulation, the first cases of DENV-4 infection were reported in FP. Two months later a new epidemic emerged, occurring about 20 years after the previous circulation of DENV-4 in FP. In this study, we investigated the epidemiological and molecular characteristics of the introduction, spread and genetic microevolution of DENV-4 in FP. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Epidemiological data suggested that recent transmission of DENV-4 in FP started in the Leeward Islands and this serotype quickly displaced DENV-1 throughout FP. Phylogenetic analyses of the nucleotide sequences of the envelope (E) gene of 64 DENV-4 strains collected in FP in the 1980s and in 2009-2010, and some additional strains from other SPICs showed that DENV-4 strains from the SPICs were distributed into genotypes IIa and IIb. Recent FP strains were distributed into two clusters, each comprising viruses from other but distinct SPICs, suggesting that emergence of DENV-4 in FP in 2009 resulted from multiple introductions. Otherwise, we observed that almost all strains collected in the SPICs in the 1980s exhibit an amino acid (aa) substitution V287I within domain I of the E protein, and all recent South Pacific strains exhibit a T365I substitution within domain III. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This study confirmed the cyclic re-emergence and displacement of DENV serotypes in FP. Otherwise, our results showed that specific aa substitutions on the E protein were present on all DENV-4 strains circulating in SPICs. These substitutions probably acquired and subsequently conserved could reflect a founder effect to be associated with epidemiological, geographical, eco-biological and social specificities in SPICs.

Influencing the experience of people in urban public places through mobile mediated interactions

This study presents research findings to informthe design and development of innovativemobile services aiming to enable collocated people to interact with each other in public urban places. The main goal of this research is to provide applications and deliver guidelines to positively influence the user experience of different public urban places during everyday urban life. This study describes the design and evaluation of mobile content and services enabling mobile mediated interactions in an anonymous way. The research described in this thesis is threefold. First, this study investigates how Information and Communication Technology (ICT) can be utilised in particular urban public places to influence the experience of urban dwellers during everyday life. The research into urban residents and public places guides the design of three different technologies that form case studies to investigate and discover possibilities to digitally augment the public urban space and make the invisible data of our interactions in the urban environment visible. • Capital Music enables urban dwellers to listen to their music on their mobile devices as usual but also visualises the artworks of songs currently being played and listened to by other users in ones’ vicinity. • PlaceTagz uses QR codes printed on stickers that link to a digital message board enabling collocated users to interact with each other over time resulting in a place-based digital memory. • Sapporo World Window, Brisbane Hot Spots, and YourScreen are interactive content applications allowing people to share data with their mobile phones on public urban screens. The applications employ mobile phones to mediate interactions in form of location and video sharing. Second, this study sets out to explore the quality and nature of the experiences created through the developed and deployed case study applications. The development of a user experience framework for evaluating mobile mediated interactions in urban public places is described and applied within each case. Third, drawing on research from urban sociology, psychology, urban design, and the findings from this study, this thesis discusses how such interactions can have an impact on the urban experience.

[Book Review] Urban Maps : Instruments of Narrative and Interpretation in the City by Richard Brook and Nick Dunn, Ashgate, Farham, United Kingdom, 2011, 250pp. ISBN 978-0-754676-5-77.

Urban maps discusses new ways and tools to read and navigate the contemporary city. Each chapter investigates a possible approach to unravel the complexity of contemporary urban forms. Each tool is first defined, introducing its philosophical background, and is then discussed with case studies, showing its relevance for the navigation of the built environment. Urbanism classics such as the work of Lynch, Jacobs, Venuti and Scott-Brown, Lefebrve and Walter Benjamin are fundamental in setting the framework of the volume. In the introduction cities and mapping are first discussed, the former are illustrated as ‘a composite of invisible networks devoid of landmarks and overrun by nodes’ (p. 3), and ‘a series of unbounded spaces where mass production and mass consumption reproduce a standardised quasi-global culture’ (p. 6).

Transnational organised environmental crime

Transnational environmental crime must become a government priority, as organised criminal networks continue to exploit the environment with unprecedented profits. Such earnings come at a substantial social, economic and environmental expense for communities and their livelihoods. Indeed, organised environmental crime is identified by the United Nations as a key factor in the impoverishment, displacement and violent conflicts affecting millions of people — notably in developing societies.2 It is widely recognised that organised environmental crime syndicates, motivated by substantial financial rewards, continue to flourish and expand in disadvantaged societies with porous borders, where corruption is widespread and regulation is poor. The theft of biodiversity and the demise of animal species and habitats have resulted not only in financial loss, but also in an increase in “environmental refugees” — people dislocated and forced to migrate due to loss of livelihoods.

Inflow cannula design for biventricular assist devices

Cardiovascular diseases are a leading cause of death throughout the developed world. With the demand for donor hearts far exceeding the supply, a bridge-to-transplant or permanent solution is required. This is currently achieved with ventricular assist devices (VADs), which can be used to assist the left ventricle (LVAD), right ventricle (RVAD), or both ventricles simultaneously (BiVAD). Earlier generation VADs were large, volume-displacement devices designed for temporary support until a donor heart was found. The latest generation of VADs use rotary blood pump technology which improves device lifetime and the quality of life for end stage heart failure patients. VADs are connected to the heart and greater vessels of the patient through specially designed tubes called cannulae. The inflow cannulae, which supply blood to the VAD, are usually attached to the left atrium or ventricle for LVAD support, and the right atrium or ventricle for RVAD support. Few studies have characterized the haemodynamic difference between the two cannulation sites, particularly with respect to rotary RVAD support. Inflow cannulae are usually made of metal or a semi-rigid polymer to prevent collapse with negative pressures. However suction, and subsequent collapse, of the cannulated heart chamber can be a frequent occurrence, particularly with the relatively preload insensitive rotary blood pumps. Suction events may be associated with endocardial damage, pump flow stoppages and ventricular arrhythmias. While several VAD control strategies are under development, these usually rely on potentially inaccurate sensors or somewhat unreliable inferred data to estimate preload. Fixation of the inflow cannula is usually achieved through suturing the cannula, often via a felt sewing ring, to the cannulated chamber. This technique extends the time on cardiopulmonary bypass which is associated with several postoperative complications. The overall objective of this thesis was to improve the placement and design of rotary LVAD and RVAD inflow cannulae to achieve enhanced haemodynamic performance, reduced incidence of suction events, reduced levels of postoperative bleeding and a faster implantation procedure. Specific objectives were: * in-vitro evaluation of LVAD and RVAD inflow cannula placement, * design and in-vitro evaluation of a passive mechanism to reduce the potential for heart chamber suction, * design and in-vitro evaluation of a novel suture-less cannula fixation device. In order to complete in-vitro evaluation of VAD inflow cannulae, a mock circulation loop (MCL) was developed to accurately replicate the haemodynamics in the human systemic and pulmonary circulations. Validation of the MCL’s haemodynamic performance, including the form and magnitude of pressure, flow and volume traces was completed through comparisons of patient data and the literature. The MCL was capable of reproducing almost any healthy or pathological condition, and provided a useful tool to evaluate VAD cannulation and other cardiovascular devices. The MCL was used to evaluate inflow cannula placement for rotary VAD support. Left and right atrial and ventricular cannulation sites were evaluated under conditions of mild and severe heart failure. With a view to long term LVAD support in the severe left heart failure condition, left ventricular inflow cannulation was preferred due to improved LVAD efficiency and reduced potential for thrombus formation. In the mild left heart failure condition, left atrial cannulation was preferred to provide an improved platform for myocardial recovery. Similar trends were observed with RVAD support, however to a lesser degree due to a smaller difference in right atrial and ventricular pressures. A compliant inflow cannula to prevent suction events was then developed and evaluated in the MCL. As rotary LVAD or RVAD preload was reduced, suction events occurred in all instances with a rigid inflow cannula. Addition of the compliant segment eliminated suction events in all instances. This was due to passive restriction of the compliant segment as preload dropped, thus increasing the VAD circuit resistance and decreasing the VAD flow rate. Therefore, the compliant inflow cannula acted as a passive flow control / anti-suction system in LVAD and RVAD support. A novel suture-less inflow cannula fixation device was then developed to reduce implantation time and postoperative bleeding. The fixation device was evaluated for LVAD and RVAD support in cadaveric animal and human hearts attached to a MCL. LVAD inflow cannulation was achieved in under two minutes with the suture-less fixation device. No leakage through the suture-less fixation device – myocardial interface was noted. Continued development and in-vivo evaluation of this device may result in an improved inflow cannulation technique with the potential for off-bypass insertion. Continued development of this research, in particular the compliant inflow cannula and suture-less inflow cannulation device, will result in improved postoperative outcomes, life span and quality of life for end-stage heart failure patients.

Safety enhancement of water-filled road safety barrier using interaction of composite materials

Road safety barriers are used to redirect traffic at roadside work-zones. When filled with water, these barriers are able to withstand low to moderate impact speeds up to 50kmh-1. Despite this feature, there are challenges when using portable water-filled barriers (PWFBs) such as large lateral displacements as well as tearing and breakage during impact, especially at higher speeds. In this study, the authors explore the use of composite action to enhance the crashworthiness of PWFBs and enable their use at higher speeds. Initially, we investigated the energy absorption capability of water in PWFB. Then, we considered the composite action of a PWFB with the introduction of a steel frame to evaluate its impact on performance. Findings of the study show that the initial height of impact must be lower than the free surface level of water in a PWFB for the water to provide significant crash energy absorption. In general, impact of a road barrier that is 80% filled is a good estimation. Furthermore, the addition of a composite structure greatly reduces the probability of tearing by decreasing the strain and impact energy transferred to the shell container. This allows the water to remain longer in the barrier to absorb energy via inertial displacement and sloshing response. Information from this research will aid in the design of next generation roadside safety structures aimed to increase safety on modern roadways.

A method for predicting rain-induced instability of an individual slope

Awareness to avoid losses and casualties due to rain-induced landslide is increasing in regions that routinely experience heavy rainfall. Improvements in early warning systems against rain-induced landslide such as prediction modelling using rainfall records, is urgently needed in vulnerable regions. The existing warning systems have been applied using stability chart development and real-time displacement measurement on slope surfaces. However, there are still some drawbacks such as: ignorance of rain-induced instability mechanism, mislead prediction due to the probabilistic prediction and short time for evacuation. In this research, a real-time predictive method was proposed to alleviate the drawbacks mentioned above. A case-study soil slope in Indonesia that failed in 2010 during rainfall was used to verify the proposed predictive method. Using the results from the field and laboratory characterizations, numerical analyses can be applied to develop a model of unsaturated residual soils slope with deep cracks and subject to rainwater infiltration. Real-time rainfall measurement in the slope and the prediction of future rainfall are needed. By coupling transient seepage and stability analysis, the variation of safety factor of the slope with time were provided as a basis to develop method for the real-time prediction of the rain-induced instability of slopes. This study shows the proposed prediction method has the potential to be used in an early warning system against landslide hazard, since the FOS value and the timing of the end-result of the prediction can be provided before the actual failure of the case study slope.

Modelling the failure of thin layered mortar joints in masonry

This paper deals with the failure of high adhesive, low compressive strength, thin layered polymer mortar joints in masonry through a contact modelling in finite element framework. Failure due to combined shear, tensile and compressive stresses are considered through a constitutive damaging contact model that incorporates traction–separation as a function of displacement discontinuity. The modelling method is verified using single and multiple contact analyses of thin mortar layered masonry specimens under shear, tensile and compressive stresses and their combinations. Using this verified method, the failure of thin mortar layered masonry under a range of shear to tension ratios and shear to compression ratios has been examined. Finally, this model is applied to thin bed masonry wallettes for their behaviour under biaxial tension–tension and compression–tension loadings perpendicular and parallel to the bed joints.

Development of a large scale flexible LED display matrix for the screen industry

This project addresses the viability of lightweight, low power consumption, flexible, large format LED screens. The investigation encompasses all aspects of the electrical and mechanical design, individually and as a system, and achieves a successful full scale prototype. The prototype implements novel techniques to achieve large displacement colour aliasing, a purely passive thermal management solution, a rapid deployment system, individual seven bit LED current control with two way display communication, auto-configuration and complete signal redundancy, all of which are in direct response to industry needs.

Culture in and culture of health promotion: tensions at the interface of Australian Indigenous health promotion

With persisting health inequalities across and between diverse populations, health promotion must consider its engagement with the culture concept in achieving better health for all. By way of a conversation between an Indigenous and non-Indigenous health promotion practitioner, this unique presentation will critically examine the cultural practice of health promotion for Indigenous Australians. Culture becomes the central tenant of this conversation – but not culture in the sense of something to “fix” to improve Indigenous health, or import to make mainstream practices “culturally appropriate”. Rather, the somewhat invisible culture of Australian health promotion practice itself is highlighted. The enthusiasm of mainstream health promotion practice for risk and reductionism supplants biological determinism with a cultural determinism that constructs culture as illness-producing. This is in contrast to Indigenous perspectives of culture in which it is described as integral to individual and community health and well-being. Whilst empowerment features strongly within global health promotion discourses, the preoccupation of health promotion with the inherent deficit/behavioural change approach is an all too convenient distraction from the broader structural factors impacting on the health of Indigenous Australians. That Indigenous Australians have not benefitted from successful public health policy interventions in the same way as the general population is in itself revealing of the culture of health promotion practice in Australia and it is somewhat ironic that the health promotion fraternity seems not to have questioned its own practice. This conversation aims to encourage health promotion practitioners, researchers and policy makers to interrogate the cultural assumptions of their own practice and of the public health system they are part of and consider how to embed and empower the voices and experiences of those who are ‘culturally othered’ within health promotion practice.

A molecular genetic approach for forensic animal species identification

This study investigated potential markers within chromosomal, mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) and ribosomal RNA (rRNA) with the aim of developing a DNA based method to allow differentiation between animal species. Such discrimination tests may have important applications in the forensic science, agriculture, quarantine and customs fields. DNA samples from five different animal individuals within the same species for 10 species of animal (including human) were analysed. DNA extraction and quantitation followed by PCR amplification and GeneScan visualisation formed the basis of the experimental analysis. Five gene markers from three different types of genes were investigated. These included genomic markers for the β-actin and TP53 tumor suppressor gene. Mitochondrial DNA markers, designed by Bataille et al. [Forensic Sci. Int. 99 (1999) 165], examined the Cytochrome b gene and Hypervariable Displacement Loop (D-Loop) region. Finally, a ribosomal RNA marker for the 28S rRNA gene optimised by Naito et al. [J. Forensic Sci. 37 (1992) 396] was used as a possible marker for speciation. Results showed a difference of only several base pairs between all species for the β-actin and 28S markers, with the exception of Sus scrofa (pig) β-actin fragment length, which produced a significantly smaller fragment. Multiplexing of Cytochrome b and D-Loop markers gave limited species information, although positive discrimination of human DNA was evident. The most specific and discriminatory results were shown using the TP53 gene since this marker produced greatest fragment size differences between animal species studied. Sample differentiation for all species was possible following TP53 amplification, suggesting that this gene could be used as a potential animal species identifier.

Elastic buckling analysis of ideal thin-walled structures under combined loading using a finite strip method

The details of an application of the finite strip method to the elastic buckling analysis of thin-walled structures with various boundary conditions and subjected to single or combined loadings of longitudinal compression, transverse compression, bending and shear are presented. The presence of shear loading is accounted for by modifying the displacement functions which are commonly used in cases when shear is absent. A program based on the finite strip method was used to obtain the elastic buckling stress, buckling plot and buckling mode of thin-walled structures and some of these results are presented.