Essays in applied econometrics

Using a unique dataset on Brazilian nominal and real yield curves combined with daily survey forecasts of macroeconomic variables such as GDP growth, inflation, and exchange rate movements, we identify the effect of surprises to the Brazilian interbank target rate on expected future nominal and real short rates, term premia, and inflation expectations. We find that positive surprises to target rates lead to higher expected nominal and real interest rates and reduced nominal and inflation term premia. We also find a strongly positive relation between both real and nominal term premia and measures of dispersion in survey forecasts. Uncertainty about future exchange rates is a particularly important driver of variations in Brazilian term premia.

Show me the money and I will bring you the head: evaluation of the effects of self-interest and anger on whistleblowing

Though many of those who decided to report wrongdoings in their organizations were able to tell their stories (e.g. Bamford, 2014, Armenakis 2004), it is fair to say that there is still much left to uncover. The paper aims to contribute to the literature in three ways. First, it provides preliminary evidence that the wrongdoing linked with individual financial loss leads to higher whistleblowing rate. Secondly, it shows how the experience of anger is related to the higher likelihood to report the wrongdoer but only if the wrongful act is perceived as a cause of one’s financial loss. Finally, the paper establishes first steps for the future development of an experimental procedure that would enable to predict, and measure whistleblowing behavior in the lab environment.

Balance of payments dominance: its implications for macroeconomic policy

This paper defines “balance of payments dominance” as a macroeconomic regime in which the short-term macroeconomic dynamics is essentially determined by external shocks, positive or negative. It argues that this is the predominant regime in emerging and developing countries. Trade shocks play an important role but the major procyclical shocks are associated with boom-bust cycles in external financing. Policy challenges are associated not only with the management of such shocks but also with the need to enhance the space for countercyclical macroeconomic policies, as boom-bust cycles tend to pressure macroeconomic policies to behave in a procyclical way. Under these conditions, the best bet is to design policies to reduce external vulnerabilities through a mix of administered exchange rate policies, very active foreign exchange reserve management, reduced reliance on external borrowing, and macroprudential regulations, including those directly affecting capital flows. Countercyclical fiscal policy can also play a role but face strong economic and political economy challenges.

Neutralizing the tendency to the overvaluation of the exchange rate or assuming a foreign constraint and asking for foreign savings

The objectives of these notes are two. The first objective is to analyze whether the strategy of growth with absorption of foreign savings leads to a trajectory of the economy that is sustainable in the long run. The second one is to evaluate the possibility of success of a policy of administered devaluation of the exchange rate in Brazil.

Europe’s financial crisis: the Euro’s flawed design and the consequences of lack of a government banker

This paper argues the euro zone requires a government banker that manages the bond market and helps finance country budget deficits. The euro solved Europe’s problem of exchange rate speculation by creating a unified currency managed by a single central bank, but in doing so it replaced the exchange rate speculation problem with bond market speculation. Remedying this requires a central bank that acts as government banker and maintains bond interest rates at sustainable levels. Because the euro is a monetary union, this must be done in a way that both avoids favoring individual countries and avoids creating incentives for irresponsible country fiscal policy that leads to “bail-outs”. The paper argues this can be accomplished via a European Public Finance Authority (EPFA) that issues public debt which the European Central Bank (ECB) is allowed to trade. The debate over the euro’s financial architecture has significant political implications. The current neoliberal inspired architecture, which imposes a complete separation between the central bank and public finances, puts governments under continuous financial pressures. That will make it difficult to maintain the European social democratic welfare state. This gives a political reason for reforming the euro and creating an EPFA that supplements the economic case for reform.

Balance of payments dominance : its implocations for macroeconomic policy

This paper defines “balance of payments dominance” as a macroeconomic regime in which the short-term macroeconomic dynamics is essentially determined by external shocks, positive or negative. It argues that this is the predominant regime in emerging and developing countries. Trade shocks play an important role but the major procyclical shocks are associated with boom-bust cycles in external financing. Policy challenges are associated not only with the management of such shocks but also with the need to enhance the space for countercyclical macroeconomic policies, as boom-bust cycles tend to pressure macroeconomic policies to behave in a procyclical way. Under these conditions, the best bet is to design policies to reduce external vulnerabilities through a mix of administered exchange rate flexibility, very active foreign exchange reserve management, reduced reliance on external borrowing, and macroprudential regulations, including those directly affecting capital flows. Countercyclical fiscal policy can also play a role but face strong economic and political economy challenges.

Exchange rate management techniques

This briefing note addresses the question: What revisions of financial regulation and financial governance in Brazil are necessary to support Brazilian development? What’s in place and what’s missing? The focus here is a dimension of financial regulation and governance: the regulation of capital flows and of exchange rate operations. The arguments are organized in the following manner. In the next section, we summarize the impacts of th crisis on the emerging-market economies and on the regulation of the international monetary and financial system. The third section discusses the post-crisis dilemmas faced by these economies. Finally, the fourth section presents some policy recommendations for Brazil.

On the distributive impact of unconventional monetary policy

Logo após à crise financeira de 2007-08 o Federal Reserve interveio para tentar controlar a recessão. No entanto, ele não apenas baixou os juros, como também adotou políticas não-convencionais, incluindo o empréstimo direto para empresas em mercados de crédito de alto nível. Estas novas medidas foram controversas e alguns opositores protestaram porque elas estariam ajudando disproporcionalmente aquelas pessoas ligadas ao sistema financeiro que já eram ricas. Nós utilizamos um modelo DSGE para a análise de políticas monetária não convencional e introduzimos dois tipos distintos de agentes, capitalistas e trabalhadores, para investigar o seu impacto distributivo. Nós encontramos que a política de crédito to Fed foi bem sucedida no mercado de trabalho, o que ajuda mais os trabalhadores, e introduziu um novo competidor no mercado bancário, o governo, o que prejudica mais os capitalistas. Logo, nós encontramos que a política de crédito diminuiu a desigualdade nos EUA.

Cooperativa habitacional autofinanciável :uma alternativa de mercado à escassez de financiamento

As an example of what happened in Brazil in the 90s, it s noticed in Natal a new system of cooperative housing production which is done by advancing the users resources selffinancing. This system comes as an alternative for the real state market performance since the end of the National Housing Bank (BNH), in 1986. Self-financed housing cooperatives play an important social role by contributing to own housing acquisition by low-income population, without, however, becoming a mechanism of social interest housing production. It is important to consider that Brazil registers a housing deficit of 6.6 million housing units (IBGE 2000/Census), which, compared to 1991, shows an increment of 21.7% to a growth rate of 2.2% a year. This deficit figure has been deepening, mainly with the end of the National Housing Bank (BNH). The self-financed cooperative housing production broadens around the Metropolitan Region of Natal (RMN) and remains as an alternative to the lack of financing in the housing / real state market. In general, the aim of this work is to analyze the role of self-financing housing cooperatives on the housing production in the RMN, in order to identify their role in the real state market, in the own housing promotion and in the housing policy. The Universe of this study is performance of four housing cooperatives - CHAF-RN, COOPHAB-RN, MULTHCOOP e CNH - that work through self-financing. It is considered here an amount of 38 undertakings launched between 1993 and 2002, including 8143 housing units. The methodology adopted consists of bibliographic, documental and field research. As a result, actions like brokerage, marketing, speculation, and the criteria to define places for undertakings and final products, show how close they are to the housing market production. As a matter of fact, this short distance explains why the self-financed cooperative production for social interest housing is still limited. This reinforces the theory that it is necessary to define and implement a subsidized housing policy to serve the low-income Brazilian population

Low power laser radiation at 685 nm stimulates stem-cell proliferation rate in Dugesia tigrina during regeneration

Today's scientific interest in tissue engineering for organ transplantations and regeneration from stem cells, allied with recent observations on biostimulation of tissues and cells by laser radiation, stands as a strong motivation for the present work, in which we examine the effects of the low power laser radiation onto planarians under regenerative process. To investigate those effects, a number of 60 amputated worms were divided in three study groups: a control group and two other groups submitted to daily 1 and 3 min long laser treatment sections at similar to 910 W/m(2) power density. A 685 nm diode laser with 35 mW optical power was used. Samples were sent to histological analysis at the 4th, the 7th and the 15th (lays after amputation. A remarkable increase in stem cells counts for the fourth day of regeneration was observed when the regenerating worms was stimulated by the laser radiation. Our findings encourage further research works on the influence of optical radiation onto stem cells and tissue regeneration. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Geometric Birnbaum-Saunders regression model with cure rate

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Effect of benzylaminopurine (BAP) on clonal propagation rate of Curcuma longa L.

Curcuma longa L. is used in many countries for its flavor, and medicinal and cosmetic attributes, as well as for its peculiar starch characteristics. These factors have driven an interest in the in vitro propagation of this species, looking for germplasm bank maintenance, production of disease free plants, genetic variability induction from callus, and as a tool for starch research. However, there are few reports concerning the micropropagation of Curcuma longa. The in vitro propagation rate of this species, cultured under two benzylaminopurine (BAP) concentrations, was the aim of this research.

An active/reactive predispatch model incorporating ramp rate constraints solved by dual decomposition/lagrangian relaxation

The Predispatch model (PD) calculates a short-term generation policy for power systems. In this work a PD model is proposed that improves two modeling aspects generally neglected in the literature: voltage/reactive power constraints and ramp rate constraints for generating units. Reactive power constraints turn the PD into a non-linear problem and the ramp rate constraints couple the problem dynamically in time domain. The solution of the PD is turned into a harder task when such constraints are introduced. The dual decomposition/ lagrangian relaxation technique is used in the solution approach for handing dynamic constraints. As a result the PD is decomposed into a series of independent Optimal Power Flow (FPO) sub problems, in which the reactive power is represented in detail. The solution of the independent FPO is coordinated by means of Lagrange multipliers, so that dynamic constraints are iteratively satisfied. Comparisons between dispatch policies calculated with and without the representation of ramp rate constraints are performed, using the IEEE 30 bus test system. The results point-out the importance of representing such constraints in the generation dispatch policy. © 2004 IEEE.

Usefulness of Mycobacterium tuberculosis molecular typing in a tuberculosis low-endemic agro-industrial setting of Brazil

To highlight the transmission and major phylogenetic clades of Mycobacterium tuberculosis, a retrospective study was carried out at two health facilities in a small agro-industrial area in São Paulo, Brazil, that has a low tuberculosis incidence rate. IS6110-RFLP and spoligotyping were performed on the isolates, with the former revealing that 31.3% (35/112) of strains were clustered. Epidemiological links were found in 16 of the 35 clustered patients and were associated with transmission among patients living in public housing. Spoligotyping grouped 62.8% of the strains. The T genetic family predominated among the isolates. Of interest is that five strains had a pattern characteristic of African or Asian origin (ST535), and two others were of the rare localized type ST1888 (BRA, VEN). In addition, three new types-1889, 1890, and 1891-were identified. Spoligotyping showed that some ST may be circulating to or from Brazil, and RFLP revealed ongoing transmission in inadequately ventilated public-housing buildings. This may point to a failure in tuberculosis control policy.

Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2010-2011: Internacional integration and macroeconomic policy challenges amid global economic turmoil

Includes bibliography