Lacustrine sediments provide geochemical evidence of environmental change during the last millennium in southeastern Brazil

A 172 cm-long sediment core was collected from a small pristine lake situated within a centripetal drainage basin in a tropical karst environment (Ribeira River valley, southeastern Brazil) in order to investigate the paleoenvironmental record provided by the lacustrine geochemistry. Sediments derived from erosion of the surrounding cambisoils contain quartz, kaolinite, mica, chlorite and goethite. Accelerator mass spectroscopy (AMS) (14)C dating provided the geochronological framework. Three major sedimentary units were identified based on the structure and color of the sediments: Unit III from 170 to 140 cm (1030 +/- 60-730 +/- 60 yr BP), Unit II from 140 to 90 cm (730 +/- 60-360 +/- 60 yr BP) and Unit I from 90 to 0 cm (360 +/- 60-0 yr BP). Results of major and trace element concentrations were analysed through multivariate statistical techniques. Factor analysis provided three factors accounting for 72.4% of the total variance. F1 and F2 have high positive loadings from K, Ba, Cs, Rb, Sr, Sc, Th, light rare earth element (LREE), Fe, Cr, Ti, Zr, Hf and Ta, and high negative loadings from Mg, Co, Cu, Zn, Br and loss on ignition (LOI). F3, with positive loadings from V and non-metals As and Sb, accounts for a low percentage (9.7%) of the total variance, being therefore of little interpretative use. The profile distribution of F1 scores reveals negative values in Units I and III, and positive values in Unit II, meaning that K, Ba, Cs, Rb, Sr, Sc, Th, LREE, Fe, Cr, Ti, Zr, Hf and Ta are relatively more concentrated in Unit II, and Mg, Co, Cu, Zn and Br are relatively more abundant in Units I and III. The observed fluctuations in the geochemical composition of the sediments are consistent with slight variations of the erosion intensity in the catchment area as a possible response to variations of climatic conditions during the last millennium. (c) 2009 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Trade effects of exchange rate fluctuations: Evidence from Sweden

An overview of the theoretical literature for the last two decades suggests that there is no clear-cut relationship one can pin down between exchange rate volatility and trade flows. Analytical results are based on specific assumptions and only hold in certain cases. Especially, the impact of exchange rate volatility on export and import activity investigated separately leads also to dissimilar conclusions among countries studied. The general presumption is that an increase in exchange rate volatility will have an adverse effect on trade flows and consequently, the overall heath of the world economy. However, neither theoretical models nor empirical studies provide us with a definitive answer, leaving obtained results highly ambiguous and inconsistent (Baum and Caglayan, 2006). We purposed to empirically investigate trade effects of exchange rate fluctuations in Sweden from the perspective of export and import in this research. The data comprises period from January 1993 to December 2006, where export and import volumes are considered from the point of their determinants, including exchange rate volatility, which has been measured through EGARCH model. The results for the case of Sweden show that short run dynamics of volatility negatively associated with both export and import, whereas considered from the case of previous period volatility it exhibits positive relationship. These results are consistent with the most findings of prior studies, where the relationship remained ambiguous.

A home environment test battery for status assessment in patients with motor fluctuations

Background and aims Evaluating status in patients with motor fluctuations is complex and occasional observations/measurements do not give an adequate picture as to the time spent in different states. We developed a test battery to assess advanced Parkinson patients' status consisting of diary assessments and motor tests. This battery was constructed and implemented on a handheld computer with built-in mobile communication. In fluctuating patients, it should typically be used several times daily in the home environment, over periods of about one week. The aim of this battery is to provide status information in order to evaluate treatment effects in clinical practice and research, follow up treatments and disease progression and predict outcome to optimize treatment strategy. Methods Selection of diary questions was based on a previous study with Duodopa® (DIREQT). Tapping tests (with and without visual cueing) and a spiral drawing test were added. Rapid prototyping was used in development of the user interface. An evaluation with two pilot patients was performed before and after receiving new treatments for advanced disease (one received Duodopa® and one received DBS). Speed and proportion missed taps were calculated for the tapping tests and entropy of the radial drawing velocity was calculated for the spiral tests. Test variables were evaluated using non-parametric statistics. Results Post-treatment improvement was detected in both patients in many of the test variables. Conclusions Although validation work remains, preliminary results are promising and the test battery is currently being evaluated in a long-term health economics study with Duodopa® (DAPHNE).

A Spatial-Temporal Downscaling Approach To Construction Of Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency Relations In The Context Of Climate Change

This paper proposes a spatial-temporal downscaling approach to construction of the intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) relations at a local site in the context of climate change and variability. More specifically, the proposed approach is based on a combination of a spatial downscaling method to link large-scale climate variables given by General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations with daily extreme precipitations at a site and a temporal downscaling procedure to describe the relationships between daily and sub-daily extreme precipitations based on the scaling General Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The feasibility and accuracy of the suggested method were assessed using rainfall data available at eight stations in Quebec (Canada) for the 1961-2000 period and climate simulations under four different climate change scenarios provided by the Canadian (CGCM3) and UK (HadCM3) GCM models. Results of this application have indicated that it is feasible to link sub-daily extreme rainfalls at a local site with large-scale GCM-based daily climate predictors for the construction of the IDF relations for present (1961-1990) and future (2020s, 2050s, and 2080s) periods at a given site under different climate change scenarios. In addition, it was found that annual maximum rainfalls downscaled from the HadCM3 displayed a smaller change in the future, while those values estimated from the CGCM3 indicated a large increasing trend for future periods. This result has demonstrated the presence of high uncertainty in climate simulations provided by different GCMs. In summary, the proposed spatial-temporal downscaling method provided an essential tool for the estimation of extreme rainfalls that are required for various climate-related impact assessment studies for a given region.

Volatility Triggered Range Forward (VTRF): an instrument for protection against volatility fluctuations in the BRL/USD pair

Este trabalho propõe um instrumento capaz de absorver choques no par BRL/USD, garantindo ao seu detentor a possibilidade de realizar a conversão entre essas moedas a uma taxa observada recentemente. O Volatility Triggered Range Forward assemelha-se a um instrumento forward comum, cujo preço de entrega não é conhecido inicialmente, mas definido no momento em que um nível de volatilidade pré-determinado for atingido na cotação das moedas ao longo da vida do instrumento. Seu cronograma de ajustes pode ser definido para um número qualquer de períodos. Seu apreçamento e controle de riscos é baseado em uma árvore trinomial ponderada entre dois possíveis regimes de volatilidade. Esses regimes são determinados após um estudo na série BRL/USD no período entre 2003 e 2009, basedo em um modelo Switching Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (SWARCH).

On the welfare costs of business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation in the 20th century

Lucas (1987) has shown a surprising result in business-cycle research: the welfare cost of business cycles are very small. Our paper has several original contributions. First, in computing welfare costs, we propose a novel setup that separates the effects of uncertainty stemming from business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation. Second, we extend the sample from which to compute the moments of consumption: the whole of the literature chose primarily to work with post-WWII data. For this period, actual consumption is already a result of counter-cyclical policies, and is potentially smoother than what it otherwise have been in their absence. So, we employ also pre-WWII data. Third, we take an econometric approach and compute explicitly the asymptotic standard deviation of welfare costs using the Delta Method. Estimates of welfare costs show major differences for the pre-WWII and the post-WWII era. They can reach up to 15 times for reasonable parameter values -β=0.985, and ∅=5. For example, in the pre-WWII period (1901-1941), welfare cost estimates are 0.31% of consumption if we consider only permanent shocks and 0.61% of consumption if we consider only transitory shocks. In comparison, the post-WWII era is much quieter: welfare costs of economic growth are 0.11% and welfare costs of business cycles are 0.037% - the latter being very close to the estimate in Lucas (0.040%). Estimates of marginal welfare costs are roughly twice the size of the total welfare costs. For the pre-WWII era, marginal welfare costs of economic-growth and business- cycle fluctuations are respectively 0.63% and 1.17% of per-capita consumption. The same figures for the post-WWII era are, respectively, 0.21% and 0.07% of per-capita consumption.

On the welfare costs of business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation in the 20th century

Lucas(1987) has shown a surprising result in business-cycle research: the welfare cost of business cycles are very small. Our paper has several original contributions. First, in computing welfare costs, we propose a novel setup that separates the effects of uncertainty stemming from business-cycle uctuations and economic-growth variation. Second, we extend the sample from which to compute the moments of consumption: the whole of the literature chose primarily to work with post-WWII data. For this period, actual consumption is already a result of counter-cyclical policies, and is potentially smoother than what it otherwise have been in their absence. So, we employ also pre-WWII data. Third, we take an econometric approach and compute explicitly the asymptotic standard deviation of welfare costs using the Delta Method. Estimates of welfare costs show major diferences for the pre-WWII and the post-WWII era. They can reach up to 15 times for reasonable parameter values = 0:985, and = 5. For example, in the pre-WWII period (1901-1941), welfare cost estimates are 0.31% of consumption if we consider only permanent shocks and 0.61% of consumption if we consider only transitory shocks. In comparison, the post-WWII era is much quieter: welfare costs of economic growth are 0.11% and welfare costs of business cycles are 0.037% the latter being very close to the estimate in Lucas (0.040%). Estimates of marginal welfare costs are roughly twice the size of the total welfare costs. For the pre-WWII era, marginal welfare costs of economic-growth and business-cycle uctuations are respectively 0.63% and 1.17% of per-capita consumption. The same gures for the post-WWII era are, respectively, 0.21% and 0.07% of per-capita consumption.

On the welfare costs of business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation in the 20th century and beyond

The main objective of this paper is to propose a novel setup that allows estimating separately the welfare costs of the uncertainty stemming from business-cycle uctuations and from economic-growth variation, when the two types of shocks associated with them (respectively,transitory and permanent shocks) hit consumption simultaneously. Separating these welfare costs requires dealing with degenerate bivariate distributions. Levis Continuity Theorem and the Disintegration Theorem allow us to adequately de ne the one-dimensional limiting marginal distributions. Under Normality, we show that the parameters of the original marginal distributions are not afected, providing the means for calculating separately the welfare costs of business-cycle uctuations and of economic-growth variation. Our empirical results show that, if we consider only transitory shocks, the welfare cost of business cycles is much smaller than previously thought. Indeed, we found it to be negative - -0:03% of per-capita consumption! On the other hand, we found that the welfare cost of economic-growth variation is relatively large. Our estimate for reasonable preference-parameter values shows that it is 0:71% of consumption US$ 208:98 per person, per year.

Environmental policy and growth when inputs are differentiated in pollution intensity

Environmental policy affects the distribution of market shares if intermediate goods are differentiated in their pollution intensity. When innovations are environment-friendly, a tax on emissions skews demand towards new goods which are the most productive. In this case, the tax has to increase along a balanced growth path to keep the market shares of goods of different vintages constant. Comparing balanced growth paths, we find that an increase in the burden of environmental taxation spurs innovation because it increases the market share of recent vintages. As a result the cost of environmental policy in terms of slower growth is weaker and may even be absent.

The effect of increased light intensity on the aggressive behavior of the Nile tilapia, Oreochromis niloticus (Teleostei: Cichlidae)

Animals show behavioral and physiological changes that emerge in response to environmental perturbations (i.e., emergency life-history stages). In this study, we investigate the effects of light intensity on aggressive encounters and social stability in groups of adult male Nile tilapia, Oreochromis niloticus (Linnaeus, 1758). The study compared the behavior observed under low (280.75 ± 50.60 lx) and high (1394.14 ± 520.32 lx) light intensities, with 12 replicates for each treatment. Adult fish were isolated in 36-L aquaria for 96 hours, and three males were grouped for 11 days in 140-L aquaria. Agonistic behavior was video-recorded (10 min/day) on the 3rd, 5th, 7th, and 9th day to quantify aggressive interactions and social stability. There was an effect of light intensity and day of observation on the total number of agonistic behaviors performed by the fish group. Besides, increased frequency of aggressive interactions (the sum of the four sessions) by the alpha, beta and gamma fish occurred at the higher light intensity. The dominance ranks of the fish remained unchanged across the observation sessions under both the low and high light intensities. We concluded that enhanced light intensity has a cumulative effect that increases the aggressiveness of the Nile tilapia but that this effect is not sufficiently strong to destabilize the social hierarchy.

Population Fluctuations of Formicidae (Hymenoptera) and Araneae (Arachnida) in Two Tillage Systems in the Region of Guaíra-SP

The objective of this study was to elucidate population fluctuations of spider and ant species in forest fragments and adjacent soybean and corn crops under no-tillage and conventional tillage systems, and their correlations with meteorological factors. From Nov 2004 to Apr 2007 sampling of these arthropods at Guaira, São Paulo state was done biweekly during the cropping season and monthly during the periods between crops. To obtain samples at each experimental site, pitfall traps were distributed in 2 transects of 200 m of which 100 m was in the crop, and 100 m was in the forest fragment. Temperature and rainfall were found to have major impacts on fluctuations in population densities of ants of the genus, Pheidole, in soybean and corn crops both grown with conventional tillage and no tillage systems.

Exercise intensity, but not electrolyte reposition, alters plasmatic cortisol and glucose levels of horses submitted to 30 and 60km distance endurance rides

O presente estudo teve como objetivo comparar os níveis plasmáticos de glicose e cortisol de um grupo de eqüinos atletas submetidos ao esforço de longa duração (enduro eqüestre) em distâncias de 30 e 60km, com velocidades médias de 10 e 15km h-1, respectivamente. Os animais foram aleatoriamente separados em dois grupos, sendo que a um deles foi administrada, por via oral, uma pasta eletrolítica hipertônica antes, durante e após as referidas provas. O outro grupo foi usado como controle. Os resultados das concentrações de cortisol revelaram um aumento significativo, no primeiro momento, em que a intensidade do esforço era maior (15km/h), ou com a continuação deste (30km de distância), no segundo momento, para todos os grupos. Os resultados referentes à concentração de glicose permaneceram constantes durante a prova de 30km; entretanto, nos primeiros 20km da prova de 60km, tais resultados revelaram um aumento significativo no grupo controle, retornando a valores basais no momento subseqüente. A reposição eletrolítica tem a sua importância na manutenção do equilíbrio hidroeletrolítico e ácido básico e, no presente estudo, pode ter contribuído para a manutenção da concentração média de glicose plasmática.

Interaction between breeding habitat and elevation affects prevalence but not infection intensity of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in Brazilian anuran assemblages

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)