Using water balance models to approximate the effects of climate change on spring catchment discharge : Mt. Hanang, Tanzania

This project addresses the potential impacts of changing climate on dry-season water storage and discharge from a small, mountain catchment in Tanzania. Villagers and water managers around the catchment have experienced worsening water scarcity and attribute it to increasing population and demand, but very little has been done to understand the physical characteristics and hydrological behavior of the spring catchment. The physical nature of the aquifer was characterized and water balance models were calibrated to discharge observations so as to be able to explore relative changes in aquifer storage resulting from climate changes. To characterize the shallow aquifer supplying water to the Jandu spring, water quality and geochemistry data were analyzed, discharge recession analysis was performed, and two water balance models were developed and tested. Jandu geochemistry suggests a shallow, meteorically-recharged aquifer system with short circulation times. Baseflow recession analysis showed that the catchment behavior could be represented by a linear storage model with an average recession constant of 0.151/month from 2004-2010. Two modified Thornthwaite-Mather Water Balance (TMWB) models were calibrated using historic rainfall and discharge data and shown to reproduce dry-season flows with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies between 0.86 and 0.91. The modified TMWB models were then used to examine the impacts of nineteen, perturbed climate scenarios to test the potential impacts of regional climate change on catchment storage during the dry season. Forcing the models with realistic scenarios for average monthly temperature, annual precipitation, and seasonal rainfall distribution demonstrated that even small climate changes might adversely impact aquifer storage conditions at the onset of the dry season. The scale of the change was dependent on the direction (increasing vs. decreasing) and magnitude of climate change (temperature and precipitation). This study demonstrates that small, mountain aquifer characterization is possible using simple water quality parameters, recession analysis can be integrated into modeling aquifer storage parameters, and water balance models can accurately reproduce dry-season discharges and might be useful tools to assess climate change impacts. However, uncertainty in current climate projections and lack of data for testing the predictive capabilities of the model beyond the present data set, make the forecasts of changes in discharge also uncertain. The hydrologic tools used herein offer promise for future research in understanding small, shallow, mountainous aquifers and could potentially be developed and used by water resource professionals to assess climatic influences on local hydrologic systems.

INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC, CLIMATE, AND POLICY INDUCED CHANGES OF PHOSPHORUS EXPORT IN THE UNITED STATES LAURENTIAN GREAT LAKES WATERSHEDS

Anthropogenic activities have increased phosphorus (P) loading in tributaries to the Laurentian Great Lakes resulting in eutrophication in small bays to most notably, Lake Erie. Changes to surface water quality from P loading have resulted in billions of dollars in damage and threaten the health of the world’s largest freshwater resource. To understand the factors affecting P delivery with projected increasing urban lands and biofuels expansion, two spatially explicit models were coupled. The coupled models predict that the majority of the basin will experience a significant increase in urban area P sources while the agriculture intensity and forest sources of P will decrease. Changes in P loading across the basin will be highly variable spatially. Additionally, the impacts of climate change on high precipitation events across the Great Lakes were examined. Using historical regression relationships on phosphorus concentrations, key Great Lakes tributaries were found to have future changes including decreasing total loads and increases to high-flow loading events. The urbanized Cuyahoga watersheds exhibits the most vulnerability to these climate-induced changes with increases in total loading and storm loading , while the forested Au Sable watershed exhibits greater resilience. Finally, the monitoring network currently in place for sampling the amount of phosphorus entering the U.S. Great Lakes was examined with a focus on the challenges to monitoring. Based on these interviews, the research identified three issues that policy makers interested in maintaining an effective phosphorus monitoring network in the Great Lakes should consider: first, that the policy objectives driving different monitoring programs vary, which results in different patterns of sampling design and frequency; second, that these differences complicate efforts to encourage collaboration; and third, that methods of funding sampling programs vary from agency to agency, further complicating efforts to generate sufficient long-term data to improve our understanding of phosphorus into the Great Lakes. The dissertation combines these three areas of research to present the potential future impacts of P loading in the Great Lakes as anthropogenic activities, climate and monitoring changes. These manuscripts report new experimental data for future sources, loading and climate impacts on phosphorus.

[Management of a failing implant supporting a bar-retained maxillary overdenture by means of alveolar ridge augmentation. Implant loss and reimplantation]

This case report presents the treatment sequence of a 56 years old patient after he developed periimplantitis at the implant in position of tooth 22. This implant was integrated in an overdenture reconstruction connected to a soldered screw retained gold bar. The entire 2-stage procedure of implant explantation, simultaneous bone augmentation and new implant placement is documented. The onlay-graft was performed by means of the Transfer-Ring-Control System (Meisinger). The existing gold bar could be resoldered and adapted to the new implant. Accordingly the overdenture was relined and the female retainer mounted. The treatment period covered almost one year.

PET-CT-guided interventions in the management of FDG-positive lesions in patients suffering from solid malignancies: initial experiences

Positron emission tomography-computed tomography (PET-CT) has gained widespread acceptance as a staging investigation in the diagnostic workup of malignant tumours and may be used to visualize metabolic changes before the evolution of morphological changes. To make histology of PET findings without distinctive structural changes available for treatment decisions, we developed a protocol for multimodal image-guided interventions using an integrated PET-CT machine. We report our first experience in 12 patients admitted for staging and restaging of breast cancer, non-small cell lung cancer, cervical cancer, soft tissue sarcoma, and osteosarcoma. Patients were repositioned according to the findings in PET-CT and intervention was planned based on a subsequent single-bed PET-CT acquisition of the region concerned. The needle was introduced under CT guidance in a step-by-step technique and correct needle position in the centre of the FDG avid lesion was assured by repetition of a single-bed PET-CT acquisition before sampling. The metabolically active part of lesions was accurately targeted in all patients and representative samples were obtained in 92%. No major adverse effects occurred. We conclude that PET-CT guidance for interventions is feasible and may be promising to optimize the diagnostic yield of CT-guided interventions and to make metabolically active lesions without morphological correlate accessible to percutaneous interventions.

The use of learning management systems: A Longitudinal Case Study

In this article the use of Learning Management Systems (LMS) at the School of Engineering, University of Borås, in the year 2004 and the academic year 2009-2010 is investigated. The tools in the LMS were classified into four groups (tools for distribution, tools for communication, tools for interaction and tools for course administration) and the pattern of use was analyzed. The preliminary interpretation of the results was discussed with a group of teachers from the School of Engineering with long experience of using LMS. High expectations about LMS as a tool to facilitate flexible education, student centered methods and the creation of an effective learning environment is abundant in the literature. This study, however, shows that in most of the surveyed courses the available LMS is predominantly used to distribute documents to students. The authors argue that a more elaborate use of LMS and a transformation of pedagogical practices towards social constructivist, learner centered procedures should be treated as an integrated process of professional development.

Integration of Truncated Distributions in Exponential Family with Simulation Models of Logistics and Supply Chain Management

Truncated distributions of the exponential family have great influence in the simulation models. This paper discusses the truncated Weibull distribution specifically. The truncation of the distribution is achieved by the Maximum Likelihood Estimation method or combined with the expectation and variance expressions. After the fitting of distribution, the goodness-of-fit tests (the Chi-Square test and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test) are executed to rule out the rejected hypotheses. Finally the distributions are integrated in various simulation models, e. g. shipment consolidation model, to compare the influence of truncated and original versions of Weibull distribution on the model.

A survey of paediatric HIV programmatic and clinical management practices in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa--the International epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA)

INTRODUCTION There are limited data on paediatric HIV care and treatment programmes in low-resource settings. METHODS A standardized survey was completed by International epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS paediatric cohort sites in the regions of Asia-Pacific (AP), Central Africa (CA), East Africa (EA), Southern Africa (SA) and West Africa (WA) to understand operational resource availability and paediatric management practices. Data were collected through January 2010 using a secure, web-based software program (REDCap). RESULTS A total of 64,552 children were under care at 63 clinics (AP, N=10; CA, N=4; EA, N=29; SA, N=10; WA, N=10). Most were in urban settings (N=41, 65%) and received funding from governments (N=51, 81%), PEPFAR (N=34, 54%), and/or the Global Fund (N=15, 24%). The majority were combined adult-paediatric clinics (N=36, 57%). Prevention of mother-to-child transmission was integrated at 35 (56%) sites; 89% (N=56) had access to DNA PCR for infant diagnosis. African (N=40/53) but not Asian sites recommended exclusive breastfeeding up until 4-6 months. Regular laboratory monitoring included CD4 (N=60, 95%), and viral load (N=24, 38%). Although 42 (67%) sites had the ability to conduct acid-fast bacilli (AFB) smears, 23 (37%) sites could conduct AFB cultures and 18 (29%) sites could conduct tuberculosis drug susceptibility testing. Loss to follow-up was defined as >3 months of lost contact for 25 (40%) sites, >6 months for 27 sites (43%) and >12 months for 6 sites (10%). Telephone calls (N=52, 83%) and outreach worker home visits to trace children lost to follow-up (N=45, 71%) were common. CONCLUSIONS In general, there was a high level of patient and laboratory monitoring within this multiregional paediatric cohort consortium that will facilitate detailed observational research studies. Practices will continue to be monitored as the WHO/UNAIDS Treatment 2.0 framework is implemented.

Energy-Efficient Management Of Heterogeneous Wireless Sensor Networks

Various applications for the purposes of event detection, localization, and monitoring can benefit from the use of wireless sensor networks (WSNs). Wireless sensor networks are generally easy to deploy, with flexible topology and can support diversity of tasks thanks to the large variety of sensors that can be attached to the wireless sensor nodes. To guarantee the efficient operation of such a heterogeneous wireless sensor networks during its lifetime an appropriate management is necessary. Typically, there are three management tasks, namely monitoring, (re) configuration, and code updating. On the one hand, status information, such as battery state and node connectivity, of both the wireless sensor network and the sensor nodes has to be monitored. And on the other hand, sensor nodes have to be (re)configured, e.g., setting the sensing interval. Most importantly, new applications have to be deployed as well as bug fixes have to be applied during the network lifetime. All management tasks have to be performed in a reliable, time- and energy-efficient manner. The ability to disseminate data from one sender to multiple receivers in a reliable, time- and energy-efficient manner is critical for the execution of the management tasks, especially for code updating. Using multicast communication in wireless sensor networks is an efficient way to handle such traffic pattern. Due to the nature of code updates a multicast protocol has to support bulky traffic and endto-end reliability. Further, the limited resources of wireless sensor nodes demand an energy-efficient operation of the multicast protocol. Current data dissemination schemes do not fulfil all of the above requirements. In order to close the gap, we designed the Sensor Node Overlay Multicast (SNOMC) protocol such that to support a reliable, time-efficient and energy-efficient dissemination of data from one sender node to multiple receivers. In contrast to other multicast transport protocols, which do not support reliability mechanisms, SNOMC supports end-to-end reliability using a NACK-based reliability mechanism. The mechanism is simple and easy to implement and can significantly reduce the number of transmissions. It is complemented by a data acknowledgement after successful reception of all data fragments by the receiver nodes. In SNOMC three different caching strategies are integrated for an efficient handling of necessary retransmissions, namely, caching on each intermediate node, caching on branching nodes, or caching only on the sender node. Moreover, an option was included to pro-actively request missing fragments. SNOMC was evaluated both in the OMNeT++ simulator and in our in-house real-world testbed and compared to a number of common data dissemination protocols, such as Flooding, MPR, TinyCubus, PSFQ, and both UDP and TCP. The results showed that SNOMC outperforms the selected protocols in terms of transmission time, number of transmitted packets, and energy-consumption. Moreover, we showed that SNOMC performs well with different underlying MAC protocols, which support different levels of reliability and energy-efficiency. Thus, SNOMC can offer a robust, high-performing solution for the efficient distribution of code updates and management information in a wireless sensor network. To address the three management tasks, in this thesis we developed the Management Architecture for Wireless Sensor Networks (MARWIS). MARWIS is specifically designed for the management of heterogeneous wireless sensor networks. A distinguished feature of its design is the use of wireless mesh nodes as backbone, which enables diverse communication platforms and offloading functionality from the sensor nodes to the mesh nodes. This hierarchical architecture allows for efficient operation of the management tasks, due to the organisation of the sensor nodes into small sub-networks each managed by a mesh node. Furthermore, we developed a intuitive -based graphical user interface, which allows non-expert users to easily perform management tasks in the network. In contrast to other management frameworks, such as Mate, MANNA, TinyCubus, or code dissemination protocols, such as Impala, Trickle, and Deluge, MARWIS offers an integrated solution monitoring, configuration and code updating of sensor nodes. Integration of SNOMC into MARWIS further increases performance efficiency of the management tasks. To our knowledge, our approach is the first one, which offers a combination of a management architecture with an efficient overlay multicast transport protocol. This combination of SNOMC and MARWIS supports reliably, time- and energy-efficient operation of a heterogeneous wireless sensor network.

Monitoring Programmes, Multiple Stress Analysis and Decision Support for River Basin Management

The identification of plausible causes for water body status deterioration will be much easier if it can build on available, reliable, extensive and comprehensive biogeochemical monitoring data (preferably aggregated in a database). A plausible identification of such causes is a prerequisite for well-informed decisions on which mitigation or remediation measures to take. In this chapter, first a rationale for an extended monitoring programme is provided; it is then compared to the one required by the Water Framework Directive (WFD). This proposal includes a list of relevant parameters that are needed for an integrated, a priori status assessment. Secondly, a few sophisticated statistical tools are described that subsequently allow for the estiation of the magnitude of impairment as well as the likely relative importance of different stressors in a multiple stressed environment. The advantages and restrictions of these rather complicated analytical methods are discussed. Finally, the use of Decision Support Systems (DSS) is advocated with regard to the specific WFD implementation requirements.

Secondary prevention in the clinical management of patients with cardiovascular diseases. Core components, standards and outcome measures for referral and delivery

Despite major improvements in diagnostics and interventional therapies, cardiovascular diseases remain a major health care and socio-economic burden both in western and developing countries, in which this burden is increasing in close correlation to economic growth. Health authorities and the general population have started to recognize that the fight against these diseases can only be won if their burden is faced by increasing our investment on interventions in lifestyle changes and prevention. There is an overwhelming evidence of the efficacy of secondary prevention initiatives including cardiac rehabilitation in terms of reduction in morbidity and mortality. However, secondary prevention is still too poorly implemented in clinical practice, often only on selected populations and over a limited period of time. The development of systematic and full comprehensive preventive programmes is warranted, integrated in the organization of national health systems. Furthermore, systematic monitoring of the process of delivery and outcomes is a necessity. Cardiology and secondary prevention, including cardiac rehabilitation, have evolved almost independently of each other and although each makes a unique contribution it is now time to join forces under the banner of preventive cardiology and create a comprehensive model that optimizes long term outcomes for patients and reduces the future burden on health care services. These are the aims that the Cardiac Rehabilitation Section of the European Association for Cardiovascular Prevention & Rehabilitation has foreseen to promote secondary preventive cardiology in clinical practice.

Characterisation of flash floods in small ungauged mountain basins of Central Spain using an integrated approach

One of the main problems of flood hazard assessment in ungauged or poorly gauged basins is the lack of runoff data. In an attempt to overcome this problem we have combined archival records, dendrogeomorphic time series and instrumental data (daily rainfall and discharge) from four ungauged and poorly gauged mountain basins in Central Spain with the aim of reconstructing and compiling information on 41 flash flood events since the end of the 19th century. Estimation of historical discharge and the incorporation of uncertainty for the at-site and regional flood frequency analysis were performed with an empirical rainfall–runoff assessment as well as stochastic and Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approaches. Results for each of the ungauged basins include flood frequency, severity, seasonality and triggers (synoptic meteorological situations). The reconstructed data series clearly demonstrates how uncertainty can be reduced by including historical information, but also points to the considerable influence of different approaches on quantile estimation. This uncertainty should be taken into account when these data are used for flood risk management.

Adapting agricultural land management to climate change: a regional multi-objective optimization approach

In several regions of the world, climate change is expected to have severe impacts on agricultural systems. Changes in land management are one way to adapt to future climatic conditions, including land-use changes and local adjustments of agricultural practices. In previous studies, options for adaptation have mostly been explored by testing alternative scenarios. Systematic explorations of land management possibilities using optimization approaches were so far mainly restricted to studies of land and resource management under constant climatic conditions. In this study, we bridge this gap and exploit the benefits of multi-objective regional optimization for identifying optimum land management adaptations to climate change. We design a multi-objective optimization routine that integrates a generic crop model and considers two climate scenarios for 2050 in a meso-scale catchment on the Swiss Central Plateau with already limited water resources. The results indicate that adaptation will be necessary in the study area to cope with a decrease in productivity by 0–10 %, an increase in soil loss by 25–35 %, and an increase in N-leaching by 30–45 %. Adaptation options identified here exhibit conflicts between productivity and environmental goals, but compromises are possible. Necessary management changes include (i) adjustments of crop shares, i.e. increasing the proportion of early harvested winter cereals at the expense of irrigated spring crops, (ii) widespread use of reduced tillage, (iii) allocation of irrigated areas to soils with low water-retention capacity at lower elevations, and (iv) conversion of some pre-alpine grasslands to croplands.

Patient classification system: An integrated method for measuring nursing intensity and optimizing resource allocation

A patient classification system was developed integrating a patient acuity instrument with a computerized nursing distribution method based on a linear programming model. The system was designed for real-time measurement of patient acuity (workload) and allocation of nursing personnel to optimize the utilization of resources.^ The acuity instrument was a prototype tool with eight categories of patients defined by patient severity and nursing intensity parameters. From this tool, the demand for nursing care was defined in patient points with one point equal to one hour of RN time. Validity and reliability of the instrument was determined as follows: (1) Content validity by a panel of expert nurses; (2) predictive validity through a paired t-test analysis of preshift and postshift categorization of patients; (3) initial reliability by a one month pilot of the instrument in a practice setting; and (4) interrater reliability by the Kappa statistic.^ The nursing distribution system was a linear programming model using a branch and bound technique for obtaining integer solutions. The objective function was to minimize the total number of nursing personnel used by optimally assigning the staff to meet the acuity needs of the units. A penalty weight was used as a coefficient of the objective function variables to define priorities for allocation of staff.^ The demand constraints were requirements to meet the total acuity points needed for each unit and to have a minimum number of RNs on each unit. Supply constraints were: (1) total availability of each type of staff and the value of that staff member (value was determined relative to that type of staff's ability to perform the job function of an RN (i.e., value for eight hours RN = 8 points, LVN = 6 points); (2) number of personnel available for floating between units.^ The capability of the model to assign staff quantitatively and qualitatively equal to the manual method was established by a thirty day comparison. Sensitivity testing demonstrated appropriate adjustment of the optimal solution to changes in penalty coefficients in the objective function and to acuity totals in the demand constraints.^ Further investigation of the model documented: correct adjustment of assignments in response to staff value changes; and cost minimization by an addition of a dollar coefficient to the objective function. ^

Male Dominance in the New Zealand Longfin Eel Population of a New Zealand River: Probable Causes and Implications for Management

The endemic New Zealand longfin eel Anguilla dieffenbachi (hereafter, longfin eel), is overfished, and in southern South Island, New Zealand, rivers have recently become predominated by males. This study examined length and age at sexual differentiation in male eels in the Aparima River catchment (area, 1,375 km(2); mean flow, 20 m(3.)s(-1)) and the sex ratio and distribution of eels throughout the catchment. Longfin eels differentiated into males mostly at lengths from 300 to 460 mm and ages from 10 to 25+ years. Females were rare: Of 738 eels examined for sexual differentiation, 466 were males and 5 were females, and a few others, not examined, were large enough to be female. These counts suggest a male : female ratio among differentiated longfin eels of 68:1. Of 31 differentiated shortfin eels A. australis, less common in the Aparima River, 26 were females. Male longfin eels were distributed throughout the main stern and tributaries; undifferentiated eels were more prevalent in lower and middle reaches and in the main stem than in upper reaches and tributaries. In other studies, male longfin eels predominated commercial catches in the Aparima and four other southernmost rivers, by 2.4:1 to 13.6:1 males to females. The Aparima River had the most skewed sex ratio. Longfin eel catches from the Aparima River will become more male predominated because few sublegal-size females were present. The length-frequency distributions of eels in the present samples and in the commercial catches were truncated just above minimum legal size (about 460 mm), showing that few females escape the fishery. Historically, females predominated these rivers. The recent change in sex ratio is attributable partly to selective harvest of females, and partly to changes in the structure of the population from fishing, such that differentiation into males has been favored. Longevity, delayed sexual maturity, semel-parity, and endemism with restricted range make the longfin eel particularly vulnerable to overfishing.

Integrated care programmes for adults with chronic conditions: a meta-review.

OBJECTIVE To review systematic reviews and meta-analyses of integrated care programmes in chronically ill patients, with a focus on methodological quality, elements of integration assessed and effects reported. DESIGN Meta-review of systematic reviews and meta-analyses identified in Medline (1946-March 2012), Embase (1980-March 2012), CINHAL (1981-March 2012) and the Cochrane Library of Systematic Reviews (issue 1, 2012). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Methodological quality assessed by the 11-item Assessment of Multiple Systematic Reviews (AMSTAR) checklist; elements of integration assessed using a published list of 10 key principles of integration; effects on patient-centred outcomes, process quality, use of healthcare and costs. RESULTS Twenty-seven systematic reviews were identified; conditions included chronic heart failure (CHF; 12 reviews), diabetes mellitus (DM; seven reviews), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD; seven reviews) and asthma (five reviews). The median number of AMSTAR checklist items met was five: few reviewers searched for unpublished literature or described the primary studies and interventions in detail. Most reviews covered comprehensive services across the care continuum or standardization of care through inter-professional teams, but organizational culture, governance structure or financial management were rarely assessed. A majority of reviews found beneficial effects of integration, including reduced hospital admissions and re-admissions (in CHF and DM), improved adherence to treatment guidelines (DM, COPD and asthma) or quality of life (DM). Few reviews showed reductions in costs. CONCLUSIONS Systematic reviews of integrated care programmes were of mixed quality, assessed only some components of integration of care, and showed consistent benefits for some outcomes but not others.