Do Measurement Errors in GDP Announcements Cause Output Fluctuations?

This thesis studies empirically whether measurement errors in aggregate production statistics affect sentiment and future output. Initial announcements of aggregate production are subject to measurement error, because many of the data required to compile the statistics are produced with a lag. This measurement error can be gauged as the difference between the latest revised statistic and its initial announcement. Assuming aggregate production statistics help forecast future aggregate production, these measurement errors are expected to affect macroeconomic forecasts. Assuming agents’ macroeconomic forecasts affect their production choices, these measurement errors should affect future output through sentiment. This thesis is primarily empirical, so the theoretical basis, strategic complementarity, is discussed quite briefly. However, it is a model in which higher aggregate production increases each agent’s incentive to produce. In this circumstance a statistical announcement which suggests aggregate production is high would increase each agent’s incentive to produce, thus resulting in higher aggregate production. In this way the existence of strategic complementarity provides the theoretical basis for output fluctuations caused by measurement mistakes in aggregate production statistics. Previous empirical studies suggest that measurement errors in gross national product affect future aggregate production in the United States. Additionally it has been demonstrated that measurement errors in the Index of Leading Indicators affect forecasts by professional economists as well as future industrial production in the United States. This thesis aims to verify the applicability of these findings to other countries, as well as study the link between measurement errors in gross domestic product and sentiment. This thesis explores the relationship between measurement errors in gross domestic production and sentiment and future output. Professional forecasts and consumer sentiment in the United States and Finland, as well as producer sentiment in Finland, are used as the measures of sentiment. Using statistical techniques it is found that measurement errors in gross domestic product affect forecasts and producer sentiment. The effect on consumer sentiment is ambiguous. The relationship between measurement errors and future output is explored using data from Finland, United States, United Kingdom, New Zealand and Sweden. It is found that measurement errors have affected aggregate production or investment in Finland, United States, United Kingdom and Sweden. Specifically, it was found that overly optimistic statistics announcements are associated with higher output and vice versa.

Output feedback control of networked systems with a stochastic communication protocol

This paper addresses an output feedback control problem for a class of networked control systems (NCSs) with a stochastic communication protocol. Under the scenario that only one sensor is allowed to obtain the communication access at each transmission instant, a stochastic communication protocol is first defined, where the communication access is modelled by a discrete-time Markov chain with partly unknown transition probabilities. Secondly, by use of a network-based output feedback control strategy and a time-delay division method, the closed-loop system is modeled as a stochastic system with multi time-varying delays, where the inherent characteristic of the network delay is well considered to improve the control performance. Then, based on the above constructed stochastic model, two sufficient conditions are derived for ensuring the mean-square stability and stabilization of the system under consideration. Finally, two examples are given to show the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Robust THP Transceiver Designs for Multiuser MIMO Downlink with Imperfect CSIT

We present robust joint nonlinear transceiver designs for multiuser multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) downlink in the presence of imperfections in the channel state information at the transmitter (CSIT). The base station (BS) is equipped with multiple transmit antennas, and each user terminal is equipped with one or more receive antennas. The BS employs Tomlinson-Harashima precoding (THP) for interuser interference precancellation at the transmitter. We consider robust transceiver designs that jointly optimize the transmit THP filters and receive filter for two models of CSIT errors. The first model is a stochastic error (SE) model, where the CSIT error is Gaussian-distributed. This model is applicable when the CSIT error is dominated by channel estimation error. In this case, the proposed robust transceiver design seeks to minimize a stochastic function of the sum mean square error (SMSE) under a constraint on the total BS transmit power. We propose an iterative algorithm to solve this problem. The other model we consider is a norm-bounded error (NBE) model, where the CSIT error can be specified by an uncertainty set. This model is applicable when the CSIT error is dominated by quantization errors. In this case, we consider a worst-case design. For this model, we consider robust (i) minimum SMSE, (ii) MSE-constrained, and (iii) MSE-balancing transceiver designs. We propose iterative algorithms to solve these problems, wherein each iteration involves a pair of semidefinite programs (SDPs). Further, we consider an extension of the proposed algorithm to the case with per-antenna power constraints. We evaluate the robustness of the proposed algorithms to imperfections in CSIT through simulation, and show that the proposed robust designs outperform nonrobust designs as well as robust linear transceiver designs reported in the recent literature.

Semi-active vibration isolation using a near-zero-spring-rate device:steady state analysis of a single-degree-of-freedom model

A vibration isolator is described which incorporates a near-zero-spring-rate device within its operating range. The device is an assembly of a vertical spring in parallel with two inclined springs. A low spring rate is achieved by combining the equivalent stiffness in the vertical direction of the inclined springs with the stiffness of the vertical central spring. It is shown that there is a relation between the geometry and the stiffness of the individual springs that results in a low spring rate. Computer simulation studies of a single-degree-of-freedom model for harmonic base input show that the performance of the proposed scheme is superior to that of the passive schemes with linear springs and skyhook damping configuration. The response curves show that, for small to large amplitudes of base disturbance, the system goes into resonance at low frequencies of excitation. Thus, it is possible to achieve very good isolation over a wide low-frequency band. Also, the damper force requirements for the proposed scheme are much lower than for the damper force of a skyhook configuration or a conventional linear spring with a semi-active damper.

Fuzzy waste load allocation model: a multiobjective approach

Fuzzy Waste Load Allocation Model (FWLAM), developed in an earlier study, derives the optimal fractional levels, for the base flow conditions, considering the goals of the Pollution Control Agency (PCA) and dischargers. The Modified Fuzzy Waste Load Allocation Model (MFWLAM) developed subsequently is a stochastic model and considers the moments (mean, variance and skewness) of water quality indicators, incorporating uncertainty due to randomness of input variables along with uncertainty due to imprecision. The risk of low water quality is reduced significantly by using this modified model, but inclusion of new constraints leads to a low value of acceptability level, A, interpreted as the maximized minimum satisfaction in the system. To improve this value, a new model, which is a combination Of FWLAM and MFWLAM, is presented, allowing for some violations in the constraints of MFWLAM. This combined model is a multiobjective optimization model having the objectives, maximization of acceptability level and minimization of violation of constraints. Fuzzy multiobjective programming, goal programming and fuzzy goal programming are used to find the solutions. For the optimization model, Probabilistic Global Search Lausanne (PGSL) is used as a nonlinear optimization tool. The methodology is applied to a case study of the Tunga-Bhadra river system in south India. The model results in a compromised solution of a higher value of acceptability level as compared to MFWLAM, with a satisfactory value of risk. Thus the goal of risk minimization is achieved with a comparatively better value of acceptability level.

Robust joint precoder/receive filter designs for multiuser MIMO downlink

In this paper, we consider robust joint linear precoder/receive filter designs for multiuser multi-input multi-output (MIMO) downlink that minimize the sum mean square error (SMSE) in the presence of imperfect channel state information at the transmitter (CSIT). The base station (BS) is equipped with multiple transmit antennas, and each user terminal is equipped with one or more receive antennas. We consider a stochastic error (SE) model and a norm-bounded error (NBE) model for the CSIT error. In the case of CSIT error following SE model, we compute the desired downlink precoder/receive filter matrices by solving the simpler uplink problem by exploiting the uplink-downlink duality for the MSE region. In the case of the CSIT error following the NBE model, we consider the worst-case SMSE as the objective function, and propose an iterative algorithm for the robust transceiver design. The robustness of the proposed algorithms to imperfections in CSIT is illustrated through simulations.

RECONNECT: A NoC for polymorphic ASICs using a low overhead single cycle router

A polymorphic ASIC is a runtime reconfigurable hardware substrate comprising compute and communication elements. It is a ldquofuture proofrdquo custom hardware solution for multiple applications and their derivatives in a domain. Interoperability between application derivatives at runtime is achieved through hardware reconfiguration. In this paper we present the design of a single cycle Network on Chip (NoC) router that is responsible for effecting runtime reconfiguration of the hardware substrate. The router design is optimized to avoid FIFO buffers at the input port and loop back at output crossbar. It provides virtual channels to emulate a non-blocking network and supports a simple X-Y relative addressing scheme to limit the control overhead to 9 bits per packet. The 8times8 honeycomb NoC (RECONNECT) implemented in 130 nm UMC CMOS standard cell library operates at 500 MHz and has a bisection bandwidth of 28.5 GBps. The network is characterized for random, self-similar and application specific traffic patterns that model the execution of multimedia and DSP kernels with varying network loads and virtual channels. Our implementation with 4 virtual channels has an average network latency of 24 clock cycles and throughput of 62.5% of the network capacity for random traffic. For application specific traffic the latency is 6 clock cycles and throughput is 87% of the network capacity.

A model of social work classification in health care

The introduction of casemix funding for Australian acute health care services has challenged Social Work to demonstrate clear reporting mechanisms, demonstrate effective practice and to justify interventions provided. The term 'casemix' is used to describe the mix and type of patients treated by a hospital or other health care services. There is wide acknowledgement that the procedure-based system of Diagnosis Related Groupings (DRGs) is grounded in a medical/illness perspective and is unsatisfactory in describing and predicting the activity of Social Work and other allied health professions in health care service delivery. The National Allied Health Casemix Committee was established in 1991 as the peak body to represent allied health professions in matters related to casemix classification. This Committee has pioneered a nationally consistent, patient-centred information system for allied health. This paper describes the classification systems and codes developed for Social Work, which includes a minimum data set, a classification hierarchy, the set of activity (input) codes and 'indicator for intervention' codes. The advantages and limitations of the system are also discussed.

Search for standard model Higgs boson production in association with a W boson using a neural network discriminant at CDF

We present a search for standard model Higgs boson production in association with a W boson in proton-antiproton collisions at a center of mass energy of 1.96 TeV. The search employs data collected with the CDF II detector that correspond to an integrated luminosity of approximately 1.9 inverse fb. We select events consistent with a signature of a single charged lepton, missing transverse energy, and two jets. Jets corresponding to bottom quarks are identified with a secondary vertex tagging method, a jet probability tagging method, and a neural network filter. We use kinematic information in an artificial neural network to improve discrimination between signal and background compared to previous analyses. The observed number of events and the neural network output distributions are consistent with the standard model background expectations, and we set 95% confidence level upper limits on the production cross section times branching fraction ranging from 1.2 to 1.1 pb or 7.5 to 102 times the standard model expectation for Higgs boson masses from 110 to $150 GeV/c^2, respectively.

The Formation, Numbers And Radio Output Of Giant Radio Galaxies

The numbers and mean radio luminosities of giant radio galaxies (GRGs) have been calculated for redshifts up to z = 0.6, assuming a sensitivity limit of 1 Jy at 1 GHz for the observations. The estimates are obtained with a model for the beam propagation, first through the hot gaseaous halo around the parent galaxy, and thereafter, through the even hotter but less dense intergalactic medium. The model is able to accurately reproduce the observed numbers and mean radio luminosities of GRGs at redshifts of less than 0.1, and it predicts that a somewhat larger number of GRGs should be found at redshifts of greater than 0.1.

Distributed nonlinear optimization algorithms for general network problems

There are a number of large networks which occur in many problems dealing with the flow of power, communication signals, water, gas, transportable goods, etc. Both design and planning of these networks involve optimization problems. The first part of this paper introduces the common characteristics of a nonlinear network (the network may be linear, the objective function may be non linear, or both may be nonlinear). The second part develops a mathematical model trying to put together some important constraints based on the abstraction for a general network. The third part deals with solution procedures; it converts the network to a matrix based system of equations, gives the characteristics of the matrix and suggests two solution procedures, one of them being a new one. The fourth part handles spatially distributed networks and evolves a number of decomposition techniques so that we can solve the problem with the help of a distributed computer system. Algorithms for parallel processors and spatially distributed systems have been described.There are a number of common features that pertain to networks. A network consists of a set of nodes and arcs. In addition at every node, there is a possibility of an input (like power, water, message, goods etc) or an output or none. Normally, the network equations describe the flows amoungst nodes through the arcs. These network equations couple variables associated with nodes. Invariably, variables pertaining to arcs are constants; the result required will be flows through the arcs. To solve the normal base problem, we are given input flows at nodes, output flows at nodes and certain physical constraints on other variables at nodes and we should find out the flows through the network (variables at nodes will be referred to as across variables).The optimization problem involves in selecting inputs at nodes so as to optimise an objective function; the objective may be a cost function based on the inputs to be minimised or a loss function or an efficiency function. The above mathematical model can be solved using Lagrange Multiplier technique since the equalities are strong compared to inequalities. The Lagrange multiplier technique divides the solution procedure into two stages per iteration. Stage one calculates the problem variables % and stage two the multipliers lambda. It is shown that the Jacobian matrix used in stage one (for solving a nonlinear system of necessary conditions) occurs in the stage two also.A second solution procedure has also been imbedded into the first one. This is called total residue approach. It changes the equality constraints so that we can get faster convergence of the iterations.Both solution procedures are found to coverge in 3 to 7 iterations for a sample network.The availability of distributed computer systems — both LAN and WAN — suggest the need for algorithms to solve the optimization problems. Two types of algorithms have been proposed — one based on the physics of the network and the other on the property of the Jacobian matrix. Three algorithms have been deviced, one of them for the local area case. These algorithms are called as regional distributed algorithm, hierarchical regional distributed algorithm (both using the physics properties of the network), and locally distributed algorithm (a multiprocessor based approach with a local area network configuration). The approach used was to define an algorithm that is faster and uses minimum communications. These algorithms are found to converge at the same rate as the non distributed (unitary) case.

Impact of agricultural market liberalization on food security in developing countries : a comparative study of Kenya and Zambia

This research investigates the impacts of agricultural market liberalization on food security in developing countries and it evaluates the supply perspective of food security. This research theme is applied on the agricultural sector in Kenya and in Zambia by studying the role policies played in the maize sub-sector. An evaluation of selected policies introduced at the beginning of the 1980s is made, as well as an assessment of whether those policies influenced maize output. A theoretical model of agricultural production is then formulated to reflect cereal production in a developing country setting. This study begins with a review of the general framework and the aims of the structural adjustment programs and proceeds to their application in the maize sector in Kenya and Zambia. A literature review of the supply and demand synthesis of food security is presented with examples from various developing countries. Contrary to previous studies on food security, this study assesses two countries with divergent economic orientations. Agricultural sector response to economic and institutional policies in different settings is also evaluated. Finally, a dynamic time series econometric model is applied to assess the effects of policy on maize output. The empirical findings suggest a weak policy influence on maize output, but the precipitation and acreage variables stand out as core determinants of maize output. The policy dimension of acreage and how markets influence it is not discussed at length in this study. Due to weak land rights and tenure structures in these countries, the direct impact of policy change on land markets cannot be precisely measured. Recurring government intervention during the structural policy implementation period impeded efficient functioning of input and output markets, particularly in Zambia. Input and output prices of maize and fertilizer responded more strongly in Kenya than in Zambia, where the state often ceded to public pressure by revoking pertinent policy measures. These policy interpretations are based on the response of policy variables which are more responsive in Kenya than in Zambia. According the obtained regression results, agricultural markets in general, and the maize sub-sector in particular, responded more positively to implemented policies in Kenya, than in Zambia, which supported a more socialist economic system. It is observed in these results that in order for policies to be effective, sector and regional dimensions need to be considered. The regional and sector dimensions were not taken into account in the formulation and implementation of structural adjustment policies in the 1980s. It can be noted that countries with vibrant economic structures and institutions fared better than those which had a firm, socially founded system.

A modell of socially optimal hydro reservoir usage - yelding socially optimal outcomes in nordic electricity markets

An extensive electricity transmission network facilitates electricity trading between Finland, Sweden, Norway and Denmark. Currently most of the area's power generation is traded at NordPool, where the trading volumes have steadily increased since the early 1990's, when the exchange was founded. The Nordic electricity is expected to follow the current trend and further integrate with the other European electricity markets. Hydro power is the source for roughly a half of the supply in the Nordic electricity market and most of the hydro is generated in Norway. The dominating role of hydro power distinguishes the Nordic electricity market from most of the other market places. Production of hydro power varies mainly due to hydro reservoirs and demand for electricity. Hydro reservoirs are affected by water inflows that differ each year. The hydro reservoirs explain remarkably the behaviour of the Nordic electricity markets. Therefore among others, Kauppi and Liski (2008) have developed a model that analyzes the behaviour of the markets using hydro reservoirs as explanatory factors. Their model includes, for example, welfare loss due to socially suboptimal hydro reservoir usage, socially optimal electricity price, hydro reservoir storage and thermal reservoir storage; that are referred as outcomes. However, the model does not explain the real market condition but rather an ideal situation. In the model the market is controlled by one agent, i.e. one agent controls all the power generation reserves; it is referred to as a socially optimal strategy. Article by Kauppi and Liski (2008) includes an assumption where an individual agent has a certain fraction of market power, e.g. 20 % or 30 %. In order to maintain the focus of this thesis, this part of their paper is omitted. The goal of this thesis is two-fold. Firstly we expand the results from the socially optimal strategy for years 2006-08, as the earlier study finishes in 2005. The second objective is to improve on the methods from the previous study. This thesis results several outcomes (SPOT-price and welfare loss, etc.) due to socially optimal actions. Welfare loss is interesting as it describes the inefficiency of the market. SPOT-price is an important output for the market participants as it often has an effect on end users' electricity bills. Another function is to modify and try to improve the model by means of using more accurate input data, e.g. by considering pollution trade rights effect on input data. After modifications to the model, new welfare losses are calculated and compared with the same results before the modifications. The hydro reservoir has the higher explanatory significance in the model followed by thermal power. In Nordic markets, thermal power reserves are mostly nuclear power and other thermal sources (coal, natural gas, oil, peat). It can be argued that hydro and thermal reservoirs determine electricity supply. Roughly speaking, the model takes into account electricity demand and supply, and several parameters related to them (water inflow, oil price, etc.), yielding finally the socially optimal outcomes. The author of this thesis is not aware of any similar model being tested before. There have been some other studies that are close to the Kauppi and Liski (2008) model, but those have a somewhat different focus. For example, a specific feature in the model is the focus on long-run capacity usage that differs from the previous studies on short-run market power. The closest study to the model is from California's wholesale electricity markets that, however, uses different methodology. Work is constructed as follows.

Incipient motion design of sand bed channels affected by bed suction

Seepage through sand bed channels in a downward direction (suction) reduces the stability of particles and initiates the sand movement. Incipient motion of sand bed channel with seepage cannot be designed by using the conventional approach. Metamodeling techniques, which employ a non-linear pattern analysis between input and output parameters and solely based on the experimental observations, can be used to model such phenomena. Traditional approach to find non-dimensional parameters has not been used in the present work. Parameters, which can influence the incipient motion with seepage, have been identified and non-dimensionalized in the present work. Non-dimensional stream power concept has been used to describe the process. By using these non-dimensional parameters; present work describes a radial basis function (RBF) metamodel for prediction of incipient motion condition affected by seepage. The coefficient of determination, R-2 of the model is 0.99. Thus, it can be said that model predicts the phenomena very well. With the help of the metamodel, design curves have been presented for designing the sand bed channel when it is affected by seepage. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A homotopy approach for stabilizing single-input systems with control structure constraints

A linear state feedback gain vector used in the control of a single input dynamical system may be constrained because of the way feedback is realized. Some examples of feedback realizations which impose constraints on the gain vector are: static output feedback, constant gain feedback for several operating points of a system, and two-controller feedback. We consider a general class of problems of stabilization of single input dynamical systems with such structural constraints and give a numerical method to solve them. Each of these problems is cast into a problem of solving a system of equalities and inequalities. In this formulation, the coefficients of the quadratic and linear factors of the closed-loop characteristic polynomial are the variables. To solve the system of equalities and inequalities, a continuous realization of the gradient projection method and a barrier method are used under the homotopy framework. Our method is illustrated with an example for each class of control structure constraint.