A Fuzzy approach based on dynamic programming and metaheuristics for selecting safeguards for risk management for information systems

In this paper we focus on the selection of safeguards in a fuzzy risk analysis and management methodology for information systems (IS). Assets are connected by dependency relationships, and a failure of one asset may affect other assets. After computing impact and risk indicators associated with previously identified threats, we identify and apply safeguards to reduce risks in the IS by minimizing the transmission probabilities of failures throughout the asset network. However, as safeguards have associated costs, the aim is to select the safeguards that minimize costs while keeping the risk within acceptable levels. To do this, we propose a dynamic programming-based method that incorporates simulated annealing to tackle optimizations problems.

Diagnosis and management of nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage: European Society of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ESGE) Guideline

This Guideline is an official statement of the European Society of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ESGE). It addresses the diagnosis and management of nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage (NVUGIH). Main Recommendations MR1. ESGE recommends immediate assessment of hemodynamic status in patients who present with acute upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage (UGIH), with prompt intravascular volume replacement initially using crystalloid fluids if hemodynamic instability exists (strong recommendation, moderate quality evidence). MR2. ESGE recommends a restrictive red blood cell transfusion strategy that aims for a target hemoglobin between 7 g/dL and 9 g/dL. A higher target hemoglobin should be considered in patients with significant co-morbidity (e. g., ischemic cardiovascular disease) (strong recommendation, moderate quality evidence). MR3. ESGE recommends the use of the Glasgow-Blatchford Score (GBS) for pre-endoscopy risk stratification. Outpatients determined to be at very low risk, based upon a GBS score of 0 - 1, do not require early endoscopy nor hospital admission. Discharged patients should be informed of the risk of recurrent bleeding and be advised to maintain contact with the discharging hospital (strong recommendation, moderate quality evidence). MR4. ESGE recommends initiating high dose intravenous proton pump inhibitors (PPI), intravenous bolus followed by continuous infusion (80 mg then 8 mg/hour), in patients presenting with acute UGIH awaiting upper endoscopy. However, PPI infusion should not delay the performance of early endoscopy (strong recommendation, high quality evidence). MR5. ESGE does not recommend the routine use of nasogastric or orogastric aspiration/lavage in patients presenting with acute UGIH (strong recommendation, moderate quality evidence). MR6. ESGE recommends intravenous erythromycin (single dose, 250 mg given 30 - 120 minutes prior to upper gastrointestinal [GI] endoscopy) in patients with clinically severe or ongoing active UGIH. In selected patients, pre-endoscopic infusion of erythromycin significantly improves endoscopic visualization, reduces the need for second-look endoscopy, decreases the number of units of blood transfused, and reduces duration of hospital stay (strong recommendation, high quality evidence). MR7. Following hemodynamic resuscitation, ESGE recommends early (≤ 24 hours) upper GI endoscopy. Very early (< 12 hours) upper GI endoscopy may be considered in patients with high risk clinical features, namely: hemodynamic instability (tachycardia, hypotension) that persists despite ongoing attempts at volume resuscitation; in-hospital bloody emesis/nasogastric aspirate; or contraindication to the interruption of anticoagulation (strong recommendation, moderate quality evidence). MR8. ESGE recommends that peptic ulcers with spurting or oozing bleeding (Forrest classification Ia and Ib, respectively) or with a nonbleeding visible vessel (Forrest classification IIa) receive endoscopic hemostasis because these lesions are at high risk for persistent bleeding or rebleeding (strong recommendation, high quality evidence). MR9. ESGE recommends that peptic ulcers with an adherent clot (Forrest classification IIb) be considered for endoscopic clot removal. Once the clot is removed, any identified underlying active bleeding (Forrest classification Ia or Ib) or nonbleeding visible vessel (Forrest classification IIa) should receive endoscopic hemostasis (weak recommendation, moderate quality evidence). MR10. In patients with peptic ulcers having a flat pigmented spot (Forrest classification IIc) or clean base (Forrest classification III), ESGE does not recommend endoscopic hemostasis as these stigmata present a low risk of recurrent bleeding. In selected clinical settings, these patients may be discharged to home on standard PPI therapy, e. g., oral PPI once-daily (strong recommendation, moderate quality evidence). MR11. ESGE recommends that epinephrine injection therapy not be used as endoscopic monotherapy. If used, it should be combined with a second endoscopic hemostasis modality (strong recommendation, high quality evidence). MR12. ESGE recommends PPI therapy for patients who receive endoscopic hemostasis and for patients with adherent clot not receiving endoscopic hemostasis. PPI therapy should be high dose and administered as an intravenous bolus followed by continuous infusion (80 mg then 8 mg/hour) for 72 hours post endoscopy (strong recommendation, high quality evidence). MR13. ESGE does not recommend routine second-look endoscopy as part of the management of nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage (NVUGIH). However, in patients with clinical evidence of rebleeding following successful initial endoscopic hemostasis, ESGE recommends repeat upper endoscopy with hemostasis if indicated. In the case of failure of this second attempt at hemostasis, transcatheter angiographic embolization (TAE) or surgery should be considered (strong recommendation, high quality evidence). MR14. In patients with NVUGIH secondary to peptic ulcer, ESGE recommends investigating for the presence of Helicobacter pylori in the acute setting with initiation of appropriate antibiotic therapy when H. pylori is detected. Re-testing for H. pylori should be performed in those patients with a negative test in the acute setting. Documentation of successful H. pylori eradication is recommended (strong recommendation, high quality evidence). MR15. In patients receiving low dose aspirin for secondary cardiovascular prophylaxis who develop peptic ulcer bleeding, ESGE recommends aspirin be resumed immediately following index endoscopy if the risk of rebleeding is low (e. g., FIIc, FIII). In patients with high risk peptic ulcer (FIa, FIb, FIIa, FIIb), early reintroduction of aspirin by day 3 after index endoscopy is recommended, provided that adequate hemostasis has been established (strong recommendation, moderate quality evidence).

Integration of risk factor interventions : two reports to the Office of Disease Prevention and Health Promotion.

"November 1986."

Macroeconomic Dynamics of Market Risk Capital Requirements and Credit Supply Interdependence

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Erectile Dysfunction Drug Use, Risk Behavior, and Sexually Transmitted Diseases

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Proton pump inhibitors and the risk of fractures in older adults: a population-based retrospective cohort study

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Improving family functioning and child outcome in methadone maintained families: the Parents Under Pressure programme

Twelve families responded to posters displayed in a methadone clinic for inclusion in a pilot study assessing the viability and potential utility of an intensive, multi-component family-focused intervention, the Parents Under Pressure programme. The programme was designed to improve child behaviour, decrease parental stress and improve family functioning in methadone-maintained families by targeting affect regulation, mood, views of self as a parent, drug use and parenting skills. Nine of the families completed the programme delivered in their homes; eight were recontacted at 3 months. Each family reported significant improvements in three domains: parental functioning, parent - child relationship and parental substance use and risk behaviour. In addition to the changes in family functioning, the majority of families reported a decrease in concurrent alcohol use, HIV risk-taking behaviour and maintenance dose of methadone. The families reported high levels of satisfaction with the programme. It is recommended that future studies include independent measures (e.g. behavioural observations) of child outcome and parental functioning. The results were optimistic and provided the impetus to evaluate the treatment programme using a randomized controlled trial.

Noninvasive tests for arterial structure, function, and compliance: Do they identify risk or diagnose disease?

Background: Brachial artery reactivity (BAR), carotid intima-media thickness (IMT), and applanation tonometry for evaluation of total arterial compliance may provide information about preclinical vascular disease. We sought to determine whether these tests could be used to identify patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) without being influenced by their ability to identify those at risk ford CAD developing. Methods: We studied 100 patients and compared 3 groups: 35 patients with known CAD; 34 patients with symptoms and risk factors but no CAD identified by stress echocardiography (risk group); and 31 control subjects. BAR and IMT were measured using standard methods, and total arterial compliance was calculated by the pulse-pressure method from simultaneous radial applanation tonometry and pulsed wave Doppler of the left ventricular outflow. Ischemia was identified as a new or worsening wall-motion abnormality induced by stress. Results: In a comparison between the control subjects and patients either at risk for developing CAD or with CAD, the predictors of risk for CAD were: age (P = .01); smoking history (P = .002); hypercholesterolemia (P = .002); and hypertension (P = .004) (model R = 0.82; P = .0001). The independent predictors of CAD were: IMT (P = .001); BAR (P = .04); sex (P = .005); and hypertension (P = .005) (model R = 0.80; P = .0001). Conclusion: IMT, BAR, and traditional cardiovascular risk factors appear to identify patients at risk for CAD developing. However, only IMT was significantly different between patients at risk for developing CAD and those with overt CAD.

Polymorphisms in the vitamin D receptor and their associations with risk of schizophrenia and selected anthropometric measures

The association between vitamin D levels and skeletal growth has long been recognized. However, exposure to low levels of vitamin D during early life is also known to alter brain development, and is a candidate risk factor for schizophrenia. This study examines the association between four polymorphisms in the vitamin D receptor (VDR) and 1) risk of schizophrenia, and 2) three anthropometric variables (height, head size, and head shape). Four single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs; rs10735810/FokI, rsl544410/BsmI, rs7975232/ApaI, and rs731236/TaqI) in the VDR gene were genotyped in 179 individuals with schizophrenia and 189 healthy controls. No significant associations were detected between any of the four VDR SNPs and risk of schizophrenia. Patients were slightly but significantly shorter compared to controls. Of the four SNPs, only rs10735810/FokI was associated with any of the anthropometric measures: the M4 isoform of this SNP was significantly associated with larger head size (P = 0.002). In light of the evidence demonstrating a role for vitamin D during brain development, the association between polymorphisms in VDR and brain development warrants closer scrutiny.

Science-policy in environmental and health risk assessment: if we cannot do without, can we do better?

How can empirical evidence of adverse effects from exposure to noxious agents, which is often incomplete and uncertain, be used most appropriately to protect human health? We examine several important questions on the best uses of empirical evidence in regulatory risk management decision-making raised by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)'s science-policy concerning uncertainty and variability in human health risk assessment. In our view, the US EPA (and other agencies that have adopted similar views of risk management) can often improve decision-making by decreasing reliance on default values and assumptions, particularly when causation is uncertain. This can be achieved by more fully exploiting decision-theoretic methods and criteria that explicitly account for uncertain, possibly conflicting scientific beliefs and that can be fully studied by advocates and adversaries of a policy choice, in administrative decision-making involving risk assessment. The substitution of decision-theoretic frameworks for default assumption-driven policies also allows stakeholder attitudes toward risk to be incorporated into policy debates, so that the public and risk managers can more explicitly identify the roles of risk-aversion or other attitudes toward risk and uncertainty in policy recommendations. Decision theory provides a sound scientific way explicitly to account for new knowledge and its effects on eventual policy choices. Although these improvements can complicate regulatory analyses, simplifying default assumptions can create substantial costs to society and can prematurely cut off consideration of new scientific insights (e.g., possible beneficial health effects from exposure to sufficiently low 'hormetic' doses of some agents). In many cases, the administrative burden of applying decision-analytic methods is likely to be more than offset by improved effectiveness of regulations in achieving desired goals. Because many foreign jurisdictions adopt US EPA reasoning and methods of risk analysis, it may be especially valuable to incorporate decision-theoretic principles that transcend local differences among jurisdictions.

Risk-based maintenance model for offshore oil and gas pipelines:a case study

Offshore oil and gas pipelines are vulnerable to environment as any leak and burst in pipelines cause oil/gas spill resulting in huge negative Impacts on marine lives. Breakdown maintenance of these pipelines is also cost-intensive and time-consuming resulting in huge tangible and intangible loss to the pipeline operators. Pipelines health monitoring and integrity analysis have been researched a lot for successful pipeline operations and risk-based maintenance model is one of the outcomes of those researches. This study develops a risk-based maintenance model using a combined multiple-criteria decision-making and weight method for offshore oil and gas pipelines in Thailand with the active participation of experienced executives. The model's effectiveness has been demonstrated through real life application on oil and gas pipelines in the Gulf of Thailand. Practical implications. Risk-based inspection and maintenance methodology is particularly important for oil pipelines system, as any failure in the system will not only affect productivity negatively but also has tremendous negative environmental impact. The proposed model helps the pipelines operators to analyze the health of pipelines dynamically, to select specific inspection and maintenance method for specific section in line with its probability and severity of failure.

Comparison of estimates and calculations of risk of coronary heart disease by doctors and nurses using different calculation tools in general practice: cross sectional study

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effect of using different risk calculation tools on how general practitioners and practice nurses evaluate the risk of coronary heart disease with clinical data routinely available in patients' records. DESIGN: Subjective estimates of the risk of coronary heart disease and results of four different methods of calculation of risk were compared with each other and a reference standard that had been calculated with the Framingham equation; calculations were based on a sample of patients' records, randomly selected from groups at risk of coronary heart disease. SETTING: General practices in central England. PARTICIPANTS: 18 general practitioners and 18 practice nurses. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Agreement of results of risk estimation and risk calculation with reference calculation; agreement of general practitioners with practice nurses; sensitivity and specificity of the different methods of risk calculation to detect patients at high or low risk of coronary heart disease. RESULTS: Only a minority of patients' records contained all of the risk factors required for the formal calculation of the risk of coronary heart disease (concentrations of high density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol were present in only 21%). Agreement of risk calculations with the reference standard was moderate (kappa=0.33-0.65 for practice nurses and 0.33 to 0.65 for general practitioners, depending on calculation tool), showing a trend for underestimation of risk. Moderate agreement was seen between the risks calculated by general practitioners and practice nurses for the same patients (kappa=0.47 to 0.58). The British charts gave the most sensitive results for risk of coronary heart disease (practice nurses 79%, general practitioners 80%), and it also gave the most specific results for practice nurses (100%), whereas the Sheffield table was the most specific method for general practitioners (89%). CONCLUSIONS: Routine calculation of the risk of coronary heart disease in primary care is hampered by poor availability of data on risk factors. General practitioners and practice nurses are able to evaluate the risk of coronary heart disease with only moderate accuracy. Data about risk factors need to be collected systematically, to allow the use of the most appropriate calculation tools.

Bottom-up risk regulation? How nanotechnology risk knowledge gaps challenge federal and state environmental agencies

Nanotechnologies have been called the "Next Industrial Revolution." At the same time, scientists are raising concerns about the potential health and environmental risks related to the nano-sized materials used in nanotechnologies. Analyses suggest that current U.S. federal regulatory structures are not likely to adequately address these risks in a proactive manner. Given these trends, the premise of this paper is that state and local-level agencies will likely deal with many "end-of-pipe" issues as nanomaterials enter environmental media without prior toxicity testing, federal standards, or emissions controls. In this paper we (1) briefly describe potential environmental risks and benefits related to emerging nanotechnologies; (2) outline the capacities of the Toxic Substances Control Act, the Clean Air Act, the Clean Water Act, and the Resources Conservation and Recovery Act to address potential nanotechnology risks, and how risk data gaps challenge these regulations; (3) outline some of the key data gaps that challenge state-level regulatory capacities to address nanotechnologies' potential risks, using Wisconsin as a case study; and (4) discuss advantages and disadvantages of state versus federal approaches to nanotechnology risk regulation. In summary, we suggest some ways government agencies can be better prepared to address nanotechnology risk knowledge gaps and risk management.

Comparative risk of microalbuminuria and proteinuria in UK residents of south Asian and white European ethnic background with type 2 diabetes:a report from UKADS

Objective - This study investigated and compared the prevalence of microalbuminuria and overt proteinuria and their determinants in a cohort of UK resident patients of white European or south Asian ethnicity with type 2 diabetes mellitus. Research design and methods - A total of 1978 patients, comprising 1486 of south Asian and 492 of white European ethnicity, in 25 general practices in Coventry and Birmingham inner city areas in England were studied in a cross-sectional study. Demographic and risk factor data were collected and presence of microalbuminuria and overt proteinuria assessed. Main outcome measures - Prevalences of microalbuminuria and overt proteinuria. Results - Urinary albumin:creatinine measurements were available for 1852 (94%) patients. The south Asian group had a lower prevalence of microalbuminuria, 19% vs. 23% and a higher prevalence of overt proteinuria, 8% vs. 3%, X2?=?15.85, 2df, P?=?0.0004. In multiple logistic regression models, adjusted for confounding factors, significantly increased risk for the south Asian vs. white European patients for overt proteinuria was shown; OR (95% CI) 2.17 (1.05, 4.49), P?=?0.0365. For microalbuminuria, an interaction effect for ethnicity and duration of diabetes suggested that risk for south Asian patients was lower in early years following diagnosis; OR for SA vs. WH at durations 0 and 1 year were 0.56 (0.37, 0.86) and 0.59 (0.39, 0.89) respectively. After 20 years’ duration, OR?=?1.40 (0.63, 3.08). Limitations - Comparability of ethnicity defined groups; statistical methods controlled for differences between groups, but residual confounding may remain. Analyses are based on a single measure of albumin:creatinine ratio. Conclusions - There were significant differences between ethnicity groups in risk factor profiles and microalbuminuria and overt proteinuria outcomes. Whilst south Asian patients had no excess risk of microalbuminuria, the risk of overt proteinuria was elevated significantly, which might be explained by faster progression of renal dysfunction in patients of south Asian ethnicity.

Before and after modelling:risk knowledge management is required

Risk and knowledge are two concepts and components of business management which have so far been studied almost independently. This is especially true where risk management is conceived mainly in financial terms, as, for example, in the banking sector. The banking sector has sophisticated methodologies for managing risk, such as mathematical risk modeling. However. the methodologies for analyzing risk do not explicitly include knowledge management for risk knowledge creation and risk knowledge transfer. Banks are affected by internal and external changes with the consequent accommodation to new business models new regulations and the competition of big players around the world. Thus, banks have different levels of risk appetite and policies in risk management. This paper takes into consideration that business models are changing and that management is looking across the organization to identify the influence of strategic planning, information systems theory, risk management and knowledge management. These disciplines can handle the risks affecting banking that arise from different areas, but only if they work together. This creates a need to view them in an integrated way. This article sees enterprise risk management as a specific application of knowledge in order to control deviation from strategic objectives, shareholders' values and stakeholders' relationships. Before and after a modeling process it necessary to find insights into how the application of knowledge management processes can improve the understanding of risk and the implementation of enterprise risk management. The article presents a propose methodology to contribute to providing a guide for developing risk modeling knowledge and a reduction of knowledge silos, in order to improve the quality and quantity of solutions related to risk inquiries across the organization.