Slopes of Avian Species-Area Relationships, Human Population Density, and Environmental Factors

There is increasing interest in how humans influence spatial patterns in biodiversity. One of the most frequently noted and marked of these patterns is the increase in species richness with area, the species-area relationship (SAR). SARs are used for a number of conservation purposes, including predicting extinction rates, setting conservation targets, and identifying biodiversity hotspots. Such applications can be improved by a detailed understanding of the factors promoting spatial variation in the slope of SARs, which is currently the subject of a vigorous debate. Moreover, very few studies have considered the anthropogenic influences on the slopes of SARs; this is particularly surprising given that in much of the world areas with high human population density are typically those with a high number of species, which generates conservation conflicts. Here we determine correlates of spatial variation in the slopes of species-area relationships, using the British avifauna as a case study. Whilst we focus on human population density, a widely used index of human activities, we also take into account (1) the rate of increase in habitat heterogeneity with increasing area, which is frequently proposed to drive SARs, (2) environmental energy availability, which may influence SARs by affecting species occupancy patterns, and (3) species richness. We consider environmental variables measured at both local (10 km x 10 km) and regional (290 km x 290 km) spatial grains, but find that the former consistently provides a better fit to the data. In our case study, the effect of species richness on the slope SARs appears to be scale dependent, being negative at local scales but positive at regional scales. In univariate tests, the slope of the SAR correlates negatively with human population density and environmental energy availability, and positively with the rate of increase in habitat heterogeneity. We conducted two sets of multiple regression analyses, with and without species richness as a predictor. When species richness is included it exerts a dominant effect, but when it is excluded temperature has the dominant effect on the slope of the SAR, and the effects of other predictors are marginal.

Climatic signals in the life histories of insects:the distribution and abundance of heather psyllids (Strophingia spp.) in the UK

1. The population density and age structure of two species of heather psyllid Strophingia ericae and Strophingia cinereae, feeding on Calluna vulgaris and Erica cinerea, respectively, were sampled using standardized methods at locations throughout Britain. Locations were chosen to represent the full latitudinal and altitudinal range of the host plants.

2. The paper explains how spatial variation in thermal environment, insect life-history characteristics and physiology, and plant distribution, interact to provide the mechanisms that determine the range and abundance of Strophingia spp.

3. Strophingia ericae and S. cinereae, despite the similarity in the spatial distribution patterns of their host plants within Britain, display strongly contrasting geographical ranges and corresponding life-history strategies. Strophingia ericae is found on its host plant throughout Britain but S. cinereae is restricted to low elevation sites south of the Mersey-Humber line and occupies only part of the latitudinal and altitudinal range of its host plant. There is no evidence to suggest that S. ericae has reached its potential altitudinal or latitudinal limit in the UK, even though its host plant appears to reach its altitudinal limit.

4. There was little difference in the ability of the two Strophingia spp. to survive shortterm exposure to temperatures as low as - 15 degrees C and low winter temperatures probably do not limit distribution in S. cinereae.

5. Population density of S. ericae was not related to altitude but showed a weak correlation with latitude. The spread of larval instars present at a site, measured as an index of instar homogeneity, was significantly correlated with a range of temperature related variables, of which May mean temperature and length of growing season above 3 degrees C (calculated using the Lennon and Turner climatic model) were the most significant. Factor analysis did not improve the level of correlation significantly above those obtained for single climatic variables. The data confirmed that S. ericae has a I year life cycle at the lowest elevations and a 2 year life cycle at the higher elevations. However, there was no evidence, as previously suggested, for an abrupt change from a one to a 2 year life cycle in S. ericae with increasing altitudes or latitudes.

6. By contrast with S. ericae, S. cinereae had an obligatory 1 year life cycle, its population decreased with altitude and the index of instar homogeneity showed little correlation with single temperature variables. Moreover, it occupied only part of the range of its host plant and its spatial distribution in the UK could be predicted with 96% accuracy using selected variables in discriminant analysis.

7. The life histories of the congeneric heather psyllids reflect adaptations that allow them to exploit host plants with different distributions in climatic and thereby geographical space. Strophingia ericae has the flexible life history that enables it to exploit C. vulgaris throughout its European boreal temperate range. Strophingia cinereae has a less flexible life history and is adapted for living on an oceanic temperate host. While the geographic ranges of the two Strophingia spp. overlap within the UK, the psyllids appear to respond differently to variation in their thermal environment.

Performance assessment of cascade control loopswith non-Gaussian disturbances using entropy information

Cascade control is one of the routinely used control strategies in industrial processes because it can dramatically improve the performance of single-loop control, reducing both the maximum deviation and the integral error of the disturbance response. Currently, many control performance assessment methods of cascade control loops are developed based on the assumption that all the disturbances are subject to Gaussian distribution. However, in the practical condition, several disturbance sources occur in the manipulated variable or the upstream exhibits nonlinear behaviors. In this paper, a general and effective index of the performance assessment of the cascade control system subjected to the unknown disturbance distribution is proposed. Like the minimum variance control (MVC) design, the output variances of the primary and the secondary loops are decomposed into a cascade-invariant and a cascade-dependent term, but the estimated ARMA model for the cascade control loop based on the minimum entropy, instead of the minimum mean squares error, is developed for non-Gaussian disturbances. Unlike the MVC index, an innovative control performance index is given based on the information theory and the minimum entropy criterion. The index is informative and in agreement with the expected control knowledge. To elucidate wide applicability and effectiveness of the minimum entropy cascade control index, a simulation problem and a cascade control case of an oil refinery are applied. The comparison with MVC based cascade control is also included.

An Evaluation of 1D Loss Model Collections for the Off-Design Performance Prediction of an Automotive Turbocharger Compressor

Abstract. Single-zone modelling is used to assess different collections of impeller 1D loss models. Three collections of loss models have been identified in literature, and the background to each of these collections is discussed. Each collection is evaluated using three modern automotive turbocharger style centrifugal compressors; comparisons of performance for each of the collections are made. An empirical data set taken from standard hot gas stand tests for each turbocharger is used as a baseline for comparison. Compressor range is predicted in this study; impeller diffusion ratio is shown to be a useful method of predicting compressor surge in 1D, and choke is predicted using basic compressible flow theory. The compressor designer can use this as a guide to identify the most compatible collection of losses for turbocharger compressor design applications. The analysis indicates the most appropriate collection for the design of automotive turbocharger centrifugal compressors.

Gene expression and epigenetic discovery screen reveal methylation of SFRP2 in prostate cancer

Aberrant activation of Wnts is common in human cancers, including prostate. Hypermethylation associated transcriptional silencing of Wnt antagonist genes SFRPs (Secreted Frizzled-Related Proteins) is a frequent oncogenic event. The significance of this is not known in prostate cancer. The objectives of our study were to (i) profile Wnt signaling related gene expression and (ii) investigate methylation of Wnt antagonist genes in prostate cancer. Using TaqMan Low Density Arrays, we identified 15 Wnt signaling related genes with significantly altered expression in prostate cancer; the majority of which were upregulated in tumors. Notably, histologically benign tissue from men with prostate cancer appeared more similar to tumor (r = 0.76) than to benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH; r = 0.57, p < 0.001). Overall, the expression profile was highly similar between tumors of high (≥ 7) and low (≤ 6) Gleason scores. Pharmacological demethylation of PC-3 cells with 5-Aza-CdR reactivated 39 genes (≥ 2-fold); 40% of which inhibit Wnt signaling. Methylation frequencies in prostate cancer were 10% (2/20) (SFRP1), 64.86% (48/74) (SFRP2), 0% (0/20) (SFRP4) and 60% (12/20) (SFRP5). SFRP2 methylation was detected at significantly lower frequencies in high-grade prostatic intraepithelial neoplasia (HGPIN; 30%, (6/20), p = 0.0096), tumor adjacent benign areas (8.82%, (7/69), p < 0.0001) and BPH (11.43% (4/35), p < 0.0001). The quantitative level of SFRP2 methylation (normalized index of methylation) was also significantly higher in tumors (116) than in the other samples (HGPIN = 7.45, HB = 0.47, and BPH = 0.12). We show that SFRP2 hypermethylation is a common event in prostate cancer. SFRP2 methylation in combination with other epigenetic markers may be a useful biomarker of prostate cancer.

Evaluation of mixed chimerism by in vitro amplification of dinucleotide repeat sequences using the polymerase chain reaction

The influence of mixed hematopoietic chimerism (MC) after allogeneic bone marrow transplantation remains unknown. Increasingly sensitive detection methods have shown that MC occurs frequently. We report a highly sensitive novel method to assess MC based on the polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Simple dinucleotide repeat sequences called microsatellites have been found to vary in their repeat number between individuals. We use this variation to type donor-recipient pairs following allogeneic BMT. A panel of seven microsatellites was used to distinguish between donor and recipient cells of 32 transplants. Informative microsatellites were subsequently used to assess MC after BMT in this group of patients. Seventeen of the 32 transplants involved a donor of opposite sex; hence, cytogenetics and Y chromosome-specific PCR were also used as an index of chimerism in these patients. MC was detected in bone marrow aspirates and peripheral blood in 18 of 32 patients (56%) by PCR. In several cases, only stored slide material was available for analysis but PCR of microsatellites or Y chromosomal material could be used successfully to assess the origin of cells in this archival material. Cytogenetic analysis was possible in 17 patients and MC was detected in three patients. Twelve patients received T-cell-depleted marrow and showed a high incidence of MC as revealed by PCR (greater than 80%). Twenty patients received unmanipulated marrow, and while the incidence of MC was lower (44%), this was a high percentage when compared with other studies. Once MC was detected, the percentages of recipient cells tended to increase. However, in patients exhibiting MC who subsequently relapsed, this increase was relatively sudden. The overall level of recipient cells in the group of MC patients who subsequently relapsed was higher than in those who exhibited stable MC. Thus, while the occurrence of MC was not indicative of a poor prognosis per se, sudden increases in the proportions of recipient cells may be a prelude to graft rejection or relapse.

The dust environment of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko from Rosetta OSIRIS and VLT observations in the 4.5 to 2.9 au heliocentric distance range inbound

Context. The ESA Rosetta spacecraft, currently orbiting around comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko, has already provided in situ measurements of the dust grain properties from several instruments,particularly OSIRIS and GIADA. We propose adding value to those measurements by combining them with ground-based observations of the dust tail to monitor the overall, time-dependent dust-production rate and size distribution.
Aims. To constrain the dust grain properties, we take Rosetta OSIRIS and GIADA results into account, and combine OSIRIS data during the approach phase (from late April to early June 2014) with a large data set of ground-based images that were acquired with the ESO Very Large Telescope (VLT) from February to November 2014.
Methods. A Monte Carlo dust tail code, which has already been used to characterise the dust environments of several comets and active asteroids, has been applied to retrieve the dust parameters. Key properties of the grains (density, velocity, and size distribution) were obtained from Rosetta observations: these parameters were used as input of the code to considerably reduce the number of free parameters. In this way, the overall dust mass-loss rate and its dependence on the heliocentric distance could be obtained accurately.
Results. The dust parameters derived from the inner coma measurements by OSIRIS and GIADA and from distant imaging using VLT data are consistent, except for the power index of the size-distribution function, which is α = −3, instead of α = −2, for grains smaller than 1 mm. This is possibly linked to the presence of fluffy aggregates in the coma. The onset of cometary activity occurs at approximately 4.3 AU, with a dust production rate of 0.5 kg/s, increasing up to 15 kg/s at 2.9 AU. This implies a dust-to-gas mass ratio varying between 3.8 and 6.5 for the best-fit model when combined with water-production rates from the MIRO experiment.

Development of open models and tools for seismic risk assessment: application to Portugal

The exponential growth of the world population has led to an increase of settlements often located in areas prone to natural disasters, including earthquakes. Consequently, despite the important advances in the field of natural catastrophes modelling and risk mitigation actions, the overall human losses have continued to increase and unprecedented economic losses have been registered. In the research work presented herein, various areas of earthquake engineering and seismology are thoroughly investigated, and a case study application for mainland Portugal is performed. Seismic risk assessment is a critical link in the reduction of casualties and damages due to earthquakes. Recognition of this relation has led to a rapid rise in demand for accurate, reliable and flexible numerical tools and software. In the present work, an open-source platform for seismic hazard and risk assessment is developed. This software is capable of computing the distribution of losses or damage for an earthquake scenario (deterministic event-based) or earthquake losses due to all the possible seismic events that might occur within a region for a given interval of time (probabilistic event-based). This effort has been developed following an open and transparent philosophy and therefore, it is available to any individual or institution. The estimation of the seismic risk depends mainly on three components: seismic hazard, exposure and vulnerability. The latter component assumes special importance, as by intervening with appropriate retrofitting solutions, it may be possible to decrease directly the seismic risk. The employment of analytical methodologies is fundamental in the assessment of structural vulnerability, particularly in regions where post-earthquake building damage might not be available. Several common methodologies are investigated, and conclusions are yielded regarding the method that can provide an optimal balance between accuracy and computational effort. In addition, a simplified approach based on the displacement-based earthquake loss assessment (DBELA) is proposed, which allows for the rapid estimation of fragility curves, considering a wide spectrum of uncertainties. A novel vulnerability model for the reinforced concrete building stock in Portugal is proposed in this work, using statistical information collected from hundreds of real buildings. An analytical approach based on nonlinear time history analysis is adopted and the impact of a set of key parameters investigated, including the damage state criteria and the chosen intensity measure type. A comprehensive review of previous studies that contributed to the understanding of the seismic hazard and risk for Portugal is presented. An existing seismic source model was employed with recently proposed attenuation models to calculate probabilistic seismic hazard throughout the territory. The latter results are combined with information from the 2011 Building Census and the aforementioned vulnerability model to estimate economic loss maps for a return period of 475 years. These losses are disaggregated across the different building typologies and conclusions are yielded regarding the type of construction more vulnerable to seismic activity.

The Well London program - a cluster randomized trial of community engagement for improving health behaviors and mental wellbeing: baseline survey results

Background The Well London programme used community engagement, complemented by changes to the physical and social neighbourhood environment, to improve physical activity levels, healthy eating and mental wellbeing in the most deprived communities in London. The effectiveness of Well London is being evaluated in a pair-matched cluster randomised trial (CRT). The baseline survey data are reported here. Methods The CRT involved 20 matched pairs of intervention and control communities (defined as UK census lower super output areas; ranked in the 11% most deprived LSOAs in London by Index of Multiple Deprivation) across 20 London boroughs. The primary trial outcomes, sociodemographic information and environmental neighbourhood characteristics were assessed in three quantitative components within the Well London CRT at baseline: a cross-sectional, interviewer-administered adult household survey; a self-completed, school-based adolescent questionnaire; a fieldworker completed neighbourhood environmental audit. Baseline data collection occurred in 2008. Physical activity, healthy eating and mental wellbeing were assessed using standardised, validated questionnaire tools. Multiple imputation was used to account for missing data in the outcomes and other variables in the adult and adolescent surveys. Results There were 4107 adults and 1214 adolescent respondents in the baseline surveys. The intervention and control areas were broadly comparable with respect to the primary outcomes and key sociodemographic characteristics. The environmental characteristics of the intervention and control neighbourhoods were broadly similar. There was greater between cluster variation in the primary outcomes in the adult population compared to the adolescent population. Levels of healthy eating, smoking and self-reported anxiety/depression were similar in the Well London population and the national Health Survey for England. Levels of physical activity were higher in the Well London population but this is likely to be due to the different measurement tools used in the two surveys. Conclusions Randomisation of social interventions such as Well London is acceptable and feasible and in this study the intervention and control arms are well balanced with respect to the primary outcomes and key sociodemographic characteristics. The matched design has improved the statistical efficiency of the study amongst adults but less so amongst adolescents. Follow-up data collection will be completed 2012.

Identification of descendants of an extinct bovine population from the Algarve region of Portugal using numerical taxonomy analysis of morphological traits

The morphology of a sample of four bulls and 43 cows, presumed to be descendants of the extinct cattle breed ‘Algarvia’ (AG), was used to assign their relationship with animals from other Portuguese autochthonous breeds – Arouquesa (AR), Barrosa˜ (BA), Cachena (CA), Marinhoa (MA), Maronesa (MO), Minhota (MN), Mirandesa (MI), (only bulls), Alentejana (AL), Garvonesa (GA), Mertolenga (ME) and Preta (PR). Standard numerical taxonomic methods were applied to a set of 183 (cows) and 170 (bulls) traits, to derive average pairwise taxonomic distances among the sample of 257 cows and 76 bulls. Distance coefficients (morphological index of distance) ranged from 0.22 to 2.62 (cows) and from 0.49 to 2.13 (bulls). Unweighted pair group method using arithmetic averages (UPGMA)-based phenograms and a principal coordinate analysis showed that bulls were highly clustered and cows showed a tendency to cluster according to their geographical and breed origin. The AG population grouped together with GA, AL, ME and MN breeds in the Red Convex group. The average taxonomic distance among breeds was 1.02, the highest being 1.39 (ME versus BA) and the lowest being 0.64 (MA versus AR). The approach allowed for the identification of a phenotypically differentiated set of animals, comprising 19 cows and four bulls representative of the AG breed, and which can be targeted in further studies aiming at the recovery of this extinct breed.

Essays on Applications of the Factor Model

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2013

Development and validation of a risk model for prediction of hazardous alcohol consumption in general practice attendees : the PredictAL study

Background: Little is known about the risk of progression to hazardous alcohol use in people currently drinking at safe limits. We aimed to develop a prediction model (predictAL) for the development of hazardous drinking in safe drinkers. Methods: A prospective cohort study of adult general practice attendees in six European countries and Chile followed up over 6 months. We recruited 10,045 attendees between April 2003 to February 2005. 6193 European and 2462 Chilean attendees recorded AUDIT scores below 8 in men and 5 in women at recruitment and were used in modelling risk. 38 risk factors were measured to construct a risk model for the development of hazardous drinking using stepwise logistic regression. The model was corrected for over fitting and tested in an external population. The main outcome was hazardous drinking defined by an AUDIT score >= 8 in men and >= 5 in women. Results: 69.0% of attendees were recruited, of whom 89.5% participated again after six months. The risk factors in the final predictAL model were sex, age, country, baseline AUDIT score, panic syndrome and lifetime alcohol problem. The predictAL model's average c-index across all six European countries was 0.839 (95% CI 0.805, 0.873). The Hedge's g effect size for the difference in log odds of predicted probability between safe drinkers in Europe who subsequently developed hazardous alcohol use and those who did not was 1.38 (95% CI 1.25, 1.51). External validation of the algorithm in Chilean safe drinkers resulted in a c-index of 0.781 (95% CI 0.717, 0.846) and Hedge's g of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57, 0.78). Conclusions: The predictAL risk model for development of hazardous consumption in safe drinkers compares favourably with risk algorithms for disorders in other medical settings and can be a useful first step in prevention of alcohol misuse.

Proposta de modelo para obtenção do Work Index das rochas

Este trabalho pretende estabelecer uma relação entre o Work Index e algumas propriedades das rochas. Através da pesquisa bibliográfica foram identificadas varias propriedades com possível influência no valor do Work Index, das quais foram seleccionadas a massa volúmica aparente, a resistência à carga pontual, a composição química, a composição mineralógica e a abrasividade. Adicionalmente a porosidade aberta e resistência à compressão também foram analisadas. Assim foram analisadas 10 amostras de rocha, quatro de granitos, uma de quartzodiorito, uma de ardósia, uma de serpentinito, uma de calcário, uma de mármore e uma de sienito nefelínico, sobre as quais já eram conhecidos os valores de cinco das propriedades referidas previamente, tendo sido determinados os valores das ainda desconhecidas, resistência à carga pontual e a abrasividade que está representada através do resultado do ensaio capon. Devido à dificuldade de execução do ensaio de determinação do Work Index de Bond foram recolhidos dados bibliográficos de valores do Work Index para as amostras de rocha seleccionadas e adoptado o valor médio para cada uma. Os dados obtidos foram tratados estatisticamente através do método de análise de componentes principais assim como através de regressões lineares simples e múltiplas. A análise de componentes principais permitiu identificar várias propriedades da rocha com possível influência sobre o Work Index de entre as analisadas. Foi possível estabelecer uma relação entre o Work Index e quatro das propriedades seleccionadas, designadamente a porosidade aberta, a resistência à compressão, a resistência à carga pontual e a abrasividade.

Intracoronary Delivery of Human Mesenchymal/Stromal Stem Cells: Insights from Coronary Microcirculation Invasive Assessment in a Swine Model

BACKGROUND: Mesenchymal stem/stromal cells have unique properties favorable to their use in clinical practice and have been studied for cardiac repair. However, these cells are larger than coronary microvessels and there is controversy about the risk of embolization and microinfarctions, which could jeopardize the safety and efficacy of intracoronary route for their delivery. The index of microcirculatory resistance (IMR) is an invasive method for quantitatively assessing the coronary microcirculation status. OBJECTIVES: To examine heart microcirculation after intracoronary injection of mesenchymal stem/stromal cells with the index of microcirculatory resistance. METHODS: Healthy swine were randomized to receive by intracoronary route either 30x106 MSC or the same solution with no cells (1% human albumin/PBS) (placebo). Blinded operators took coronary pressure and flow measurements, prior to intracoronary infusion and at 5 and 30 minutes post-delivery. Coronary flow reserve (CFR) and the IMR were compared between groups. RESULTS: CFR and IMR were done with a variance within the 3 transit time measurements of 6% at rest and 11% at maximal hyperemia. After intracoronary infusion there were no significant differences in CFR. The IMR was significantly higher in MSC-injected animals (at 30 minutes, 14.2U vs. 8.8U, p = 0.02) and intragroup analysis showed a significant increase of 112% from baseline to 30 minutes after cell infusion, although no electrocardiographic changes or clinical deterioration were noted. CONCLUSION: Overall, this study provides definitive evidence of microcirculatory disruption upon intracoronary administration of mesenchymal stem/stromal cells, in a large animal model closely resembling human cardiac physiology, function and anatomy.

Creation of an Age-Adjusted, Dual-Energy X-ray Absorptiometry-Derived Trabecular Bone Score Curve for the Lumbar Spine in Non-Hispanic US White Women.

The trabecular bone score (TBS, Med-Imaps, Pessac, France) is an index of bone microarchitecture texture extracted from anteroposterior dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry images of the spine. Previous studies have documented the ability of TBS of the spine to differentiate between women with and without fractures among age- and areal bone mineral density (aBMD)-matched controls, as well as to predict future fractures. In this cross-sectional analysis of data collected from 3 geographically dispersed facilities in the United States, we investigated age-related changes in the microarchitecture of lumbar vertebrae as assessed by TBS in a cohort of non-Hispanic US white American women. All subjects were 30 yr of age and older and had an L1-L4aBMDZ-score within ±2 SD of the population mean. Individuals were excluded if they had fractures, were on any osteoporosis treatment, or had any illness that would be expected to impact bone metabolism. All data were extracted from Prodigy dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry devices (GE-Lunar, Madison, WI). Cross-calibrations between the 3 participating centers were performed for TBS and aBMD. aBMD and TBS were evaluated for spine L1-L4 but also for all other possible vertebral combinations. To validate the cohort, a comparison between the aBMD normative data of our cohort and US non-Hispanic white Lunar data provided by the manufacturer was performed. A database of 619 non-Hispanic US white women, ages 30-90 yr, was created. aBMD normative data obtained from this cohort were not statistically different from the non-Hispanic US white Lunar normative data provided by the manufacturer (p = 0.30). This outcome thereby indirectly validates our cohort. TBS values at L1-L4 were weakly inversely correlated with body mass index (r = -0.17) and weight (r = -0.16) and not correlated with height. TBS values for all lumbar vertebral combinations decreased significantly with age. There was a linear decrease of 16.0% (-2.47 T-score) in TBS at L1-L4 between 45 and 90 yr of age (vs. -2.34 for aBMD). Microarchitectural loss rate increased after age 65 by 50% (-0.004 to -0.006). Similar results were obtained for other combinations of lumbar vertebra. TBS, an index of bone microarchitectural texture, decreases with advancing age in non-Hispanic US white women. Little change in TBS is observed between ages 30 and 45. Thereafter, a progressive decrease is observed with advancing age. The changes we observed in these American women are similar to that previously reported for a French population of white women (r(2) > 0.99). This reference database will facilitate the use of TBS to assess bone microarchitectural deterioration in clinical practice.