Testing for convergence clubs in income per-capita: A predictive density approach

The paper proposes a technique to jointly test for groupings of unknown size in the cross sectional dimension of a panel and estimates the parameters of each group, and applies it to identifying convergence clubs in income per-capita. The approach uses the predictive density of the data, conditional on the parameters of the model. The steady state distribution of European regional data clusters around four poles of attraction with different economic features. The distribution of incomeper-capita of OECD countries has two poles of attraction and each grouphas clearly identifiable economic characteristics.

Targeting fertility and female participation through the income tax

We evaluate the effect of a 2003 reform in the Spanish income tax on fertility and the employment of mothers with small children. The reform introduced a tax credit for working mothers with children under the age of three, while also increasing child deductions for all households with children. Theoretically, given the interplay of these two components, the expected effect of the reform is ambiguous on both outcomes. We find that the combined reforms significantly increased both fertility (by almost five percent) and the employment rate of mothers with children under three (by two percent). These effects were more pronounced among less-educated women. In addition, to disentangle the impact of the two reform components, we use an earlier reform that increased child deductions in 1999. We find that the child deductions affect mothers employment negatively, which implies that the 2003 tax credit would have increased employment even more (up to five percent) in the absence of the change in child deductions.

A-1a Supplemental Security Income Program, December 2007

A-1a - SUPPLEMENTAL SECURITY INCOME PROGRAM - December 2007

G-1 Appeal Activity in the Public Assistance Programs, December 2007

The Food Assistance Monthly Participation Report is a monthly summary of Food Assistance program participation, Statewide and for each Iowa county. Breakouts are reported for participants also in the FIP program, those only receiving Food Assistance, and those that are receiving economic assistance under other programs (primarily Medicaid). This report may also be known as the F-1 Report.

A-1a Supplemental Security Income Program, November 2007

A-1a - SUPPLEMENTAL SECURITY INCOME PROGRAM - November 2007

The disturbing 'rise' of global income inequality

We use aggregate GDP data and within-country income shares for theperiod 1970-1998 to assign a level of income to each person in theworld. We then estimate the gaussian kernel density function for theworldwide distribution of income. We compute world poverty rates byintegrating the density function below the poverty lines. The $1/daypoverty rate has fallen from 20% to 5% over the last twenty five years.The $2/day rate has fallen from 44% to 18%. There are between 300 and500 million less poor people in 1998 than there were in the 70s.We estimate global income inequality using seven different popularindexes: the Gini coefficient, the variance of log-income, two ofAtkinson s indexes, the Mean Logarithmic Deviation, the Theil indexand the coefficient of variation. All indexes show a reduction in globalincome inequality between 1980 and 1998. We also find that most globaldisparities can be accounted for by across-country, not within-country,inequalities. Within-country disparities have increased slightly duringthe sample period, but not nearly enough to offset the substantialreduction in across-country disparities. The across-country reductionsin inequality are driven mainly, but not fully, by the large growth rateof the incomes of the 1.2 billion Chinese citizens. Unless Africa startsgrowing in the near future, we project that income inequalities willstart rising again. If Africa does not start growing, then China, India,the OECD and the rest of middle-income and rich countries diverge awayfrom it, and global inequality will rise. Thus, the aggregate GDP growthof the African continent should be the priority of anyone concerned withincreasing global income inequality.

Inequality over the business cycle: Estimating income risk using micro-data on consumption

We use CEX repeated cross-section data on consumption and income, to evaluate the nature of increased income inequality in the 1980s and 90s. We decompose unexpected changes in family income into transitory and permanent, and idiosyncratic and aggregate components, and estimate the contribution of each component to total inequality. The model we use is a linearized incomplete markets model, enriched to incorporate risk-sharing while maintaining tractability. Our estimates suggest that taking risk sharing into account is important for the model fit; that the increase in inequality in the 1980s was mainly permanent; and that inequality is driven almost entirely by idiosyncratic income risk. In addition we find no evidence for cyclical behavior of consumption risk, casting doubt on Constantinides and Duffie s (1995) explanation for the equity premium puzzle.

Heterogeneous life-cycle profiles, income risk and consumption inequality

Was the increase in income inequality in the US due to permanent shocks or merely to an increase in the variance of transitory shocks? The implications for consumption and welfare depend crucially on the answer to this question. We use CEX repeated cross-section data on consumption and income to decompose idiosyncratic changes in income into predictable life-cycle changes, transitory and permanent shocks and estimate the contribution of each to total inequality. Our model fits the joint evolution of consumption and income inequality well and delivers two main results. First, we find that permanent changes in income explain all of the increase in inequality in the 1980s and 90s. Second, we reconcile this finding with the fact that consumption inequality did not increase much over this period. Our results support the view that many permanent changes in income are predictable for consumers, even if they look unpredictable to the econometrician, consistent withmodels of heterogeneous income profiles.

Impact and cost of a 2-week community-based screening and awareness program for diabetes and cardiovascular risk factors in a Swiss canton.

BACKGROUND: Community-based diabetes screening programs can help sensitize the population and identify new cases. However, the impact of such programs is rarely assessed in high-income countries, where concurrent health information and screening opportunities are common place. INTERVENTION AND METHODS: A 2-week screening and awareness campaign was organized as part of a new diabetes program in the canton of Vaud (population of 697,000) in Switzerland. Screening was performed without appointment in 190 out of 244 pharmacies in the canton at the subsidized cost of 10 Swiss Francs per participant. Screening included questions on risk behaviors, measurement of body mass index, blood pressure, blood cholesterol, random blood glucose (RBG), and A1c if RBG was >/=7.0 mmol/L. A mass media campaign promoting physical activity and a healthy diet was channeled through several media, eg, 165 spots on radio, billboards in 250 public places, flyers in 360 public transport vehicles, and a dozen articles in several newspapers. A telephone survey in a representative sample of the population of the canton was performed after the campaign to evaluate the program. RESULTS: A total of 4222 participants (0.76% of all persons aged >/=18 years) underwent the screening program (median age: 53 years, 63% females). Among participants not treated for diabetes, 3.7% had RBG >/= 7.8 mmol/L and 1.8% had both RBG >/= 7.0 mmol/L and A1c >/= 6.5. Untreated blood pressure >/=140/90 mmHg and/or untreated cholesterol >/=5.2 mmol/L were found in 50.5% of participants. One or several treated or untreated modifiable risk factors were found in 78% of participants. The telephone survey showed that 53% of all adults in the canton were sensitized by the campaign. Excluding fees paid by the participants, the program incurred a cost of CHF 330,600. CONCLUSION: A community-based screening program had low efficiency for detecting new cases of diabetes, but it identified large numbers of persons with elevated other cardiovascular risk factors. Our findings suggest the convenience of A1c for mass screening of diabetes, the usefulness of extending diabetes screening to other cardiovascular risk factors, and the importance of a robust background communication campaign.

Audit report on the Iowa Water Pollution Control Works Financing Program and the Iowa Drinking Water Facilities Financing Program, joint programs of the Iowa Finance Authority and the Iowa Department of Natural Resources for the year ended June 30, 2007

Audit report on the Iowa Water Pollution Control Works Financing Program and the Iowa Drinking Water Facilities Financing Program, joint programs of the Iowa Finance Authority and the Iowa Department of Natural Resources for the year ended June 30, 2007

G-1 Appeal Activity in the Public Assistance Programs

This report contains information on the Appeal Activity in the Public Assistance Programs. Programs included are FIP (Iowa’s TANF program), Title IV-D (Child Support), Food Stamps (USDA Food Assistance Program), Title XIX (Medicaid), Title XX (Social Services Block Grant), Juvenile Parole, State Supplemental Assistance, Other, Food Stamp Fraud, FIP Fraud, RCA (Refugee Cash Assistance) Fraud, and a total for all the programs. This report is issued monthly.

G-1 Appeal Activity in the Public Assistance Programs, February 2008

This report contains information on the Appeal Activity in the Public Assistance Programs. Programs included are FIP (Iowa’s TANF program), Title IV-D (Child Support), Food Stamps (USDA Food Assistance Program), Title XIX (Medicaid), Title XX (Social Services Block Grant), Juvenile Parole, State Supplemental Assistance, Other, Food Stamp Fraud, FIP Fraud, RCA (Refugee Cash Assistance) Fraud, and a total for all the programs. This report is issued monthly.

G-1 Appeal Activity in the Public Assistance Programs, March 2008

This report contains information on the Appeal Activity in the Public Assistance Programs. Programs included are FIP (Iowa’s TANF program), Title IV-D (Child Support), Food Stamps (USDA Food Assistance Program), Title XIX (Medicaid), Title XX (Social Services Block Grant), Juvenile Parole, State Supplemental Assistance, Other, Food Stamp Fraud, FIP Fraud, RCA (Refugee Cash Assistance) Fraud, and a total for all the programs. This report is issued monthly.

G-1 Appeal Activity in the Public Assistance Programs, April 2008

This report contains information on the Appeal Activity in the Public Assistance Programs. Programs included are FIP (Iowa’s TANF program), Title IV-D (Child Support), Food Stamps (USDA Food Assistance Program), Title XIX (Medicaid), Title XX (Social Services Block Grant), Juvenile Parole, State Supplemental Assistance, Other, Food Stamp Fraud, FIP Fraud, RCA (Refugee Cash Assistance) Fraud, and a total for all the programs. This report is issued monthly.

G-1 Appeal Activity in the Public Assistance Programs, May 2008

This report contains information on the Appeal Activity in the Public Assistance Programs. Programs included are FIP (Iowa’s TANF program), Title IV-D (Child Support), Food Stamps (USDA Food Assistance Program), Title XIX (Medicaid), Title XX (Social Services Block Grant), Juvenile Parole, State Supplemental Assistance, Other, Food Stamp Fraud, FIP Fraud, RCA (Refugee Cash Assistance) Fraud, and a total for all the programs. This report is issued monthly.