Essays on supply chain's flexibility: a real options approach

A presente tese investiga o processo de tomada de decisão na gestão de cadeias de abastecimento, utilizando um quadro de análise de opções reais. Especificamente, estudamos tópicos como o nível de inventário ideal para protecção contra a incerteza da procura, o momento para implementação de capacidade flexível em mercados onde existe complexidade no mix de produtos, o tempo para o reforço do factor trabalho visando requisitos de serviço ao mercado, e as decisões entre integração e outsourcing num ambiente de incerteza. Foram usadas metodologias de tempo discreto e contínuo para identificar o valor ideal e o calendário das opções a adoptar, quando a procura é estocástica. Além disso, foram considerados os efeitos dos requisitos dos mercados, como a complexidade na oferta de produtos e o nível de serviço. A procura é representada recorrendo a diferentes processos estocásticos, o impacto de saltos inesperados também é explorado, reforçando a generalização dos modelos a diferentes condições de negócio. A aplicabilidade dos modelos que apresentamos permite a diversificação e o enriquecimento da literatura sobre a abordagem de opções reais, no âmbito das cadeias de abastecimento. Níveis de inventário flexíveis e capacidades flexíveis são característicos das cadeias de abastecimento e podem ser usados como resposta à incerteza do mercado. Esta tese é constituída por ensaios que suportam a aplicação dos modelos, e consiste num capítulo introdutório (designado por ensaio I) e mais seis ensaios sobre factores que discutem o uso de medidas de flexibilidade nas cadeias de abastecimento, em ambientes de incerteza, e um último ensaio sobre a extensão do conceito de flexibilidade ao tratamento da avaliação de planos de negócio. O segundo ensaio que apresentamos é sobre o valor do inventário num único estádio, enquanto medida de flexibilidade, sujeita ao crescente condicionalismo dos custos com posse de activos. Introduzimos uma nova classificação de artigos para suportar o indicador designado por overstock. No terceiro e quarto ensaio ampliamos a exploração do conceito de overstock, promovendo a interacção e o balanceamento entre vários estádios de uma cadeia de abastecimento, como forma de melhorar o desempenho global. Para sustentar a aplicação prática das abordagens, adaptamos o ensaio número três à gestão do desempenho, para suportar o estabelecimento de metas coordenadas e alinhadas; e adaptamos o quarto ensaio à coordenação das cadeias de abastecimento, como auxiliar ao planeamento integrado e sequencial dos níveis de inventário. No ensaio cinco analisamos o factor de produção “tecnologia”, em relação directa com a oferta de produtos de uma empresa, explorando o conceito de investimento, como medida de flexibilidade nas componentes de volume da procura e gama de produtos. Dedicamos o ensaio número seis à análise do factor de produção “Mão-de-Obra”, explorando as condicionantes para aumento do número de turnos na perspectiva económica e determinando o ponto crítico para a tomada de decisão em ambientes de incerteza. No ensaio número sete exploramos o conceito de internalização de operações, demarcando a nossa análise das demais pela definição do momento crítico que suporta a tomada de decisão em ambientes dinâmicos. Complementamos a análise com a introdução de factores temporais de perturbação, nomeadamente, o estádio de preparação necessário e anterior a uma eventual alteração de estratégia. Finalmente, no último ensaio, estendemos a análise da flexibilidade em ambientes de incerteza ao conceito de planos de negócio. Em concreto, exploramos a influência do número de pontos de decisão na flexibilidade de um plano, como resposta à crescente incerteza dos mercados. A título de exemplo, usamos o mecanismo de gestão sequencial do orçamento para suportar o nosso modelo. A crescente incerteza da procura obrigou a um aumento da agilidade e da flexibilidade das cadeias de abastecimento, limitando o uso de muitas das técnicas tradicionais de suporte à gestão, pela incapacidade de incorporarem os efeitos da incerteza. A flexibilidade é claramente uma vantagem competitiva das empresas que deve, por isso, ser quantificada. Com os modelos apresentados e com base nos resultados analisados, pretendemos demonstrar a utilidade da consideração da incerteza nos instrumentos de gestão, usando exemplos numéricos para suportar a aplicação dos modelos, o que claramente promove a aproximação dos desenvolvimentos aqui apresentados às práticas de negócio.

Management and Control of Water Supply Systems

The fast increase in the energy’s price has brought a growing concern about the highly expensive task of transporting water. By creating an hydraulic model of the Water Supply System’s (WSS) network and predicting its behaviour, it is possible to take advantage of the energy’s tariffs, reducing the total cost on pumping activities. This thesis was developed, in association with a technology transfer project called the E-Pumping. It focuses on finding a flexible supervision and control strategy, adaptable to any existent Water Supply System (WSS), as well as forecasting the water demand on a time period chosen by the end user, so that the pumping actions could be planned to an optimum schedule, that minimizes the total operational cost. The OPC protocol, associated to a MySQL database were used to develop a flexible tool of supervision and control, due to their adaptability to function with equipments from various manufacturers, being another integrated modular part of the E-Pumping project. Furthermore, in this thesis, through the study and performance tests of several statistical models based on time series, specifically applied to this problem, a forecasting tool adaptable to any station, and whose model parameters are automatically refreshed at runtime, was developed and added to the project as another module. Both the aforementioned modules were later integrated with an Graphical User Interface (GUI) and installed in a pilot application at the ADDP’s network. The implementation of this software on WSSs across the country will reduce the water supply companies’ running costs, improving their market competition and, ultimately, lowering the water price to the end costumer.

Moralising Gold Supply Chains

During the late twentieth century the supply chains for gold were considered by the majority of consumers (when they were considered at all) to be driven by simple commercial imperatives. That notion was shattered during the first decade of the twenty-first century by the appearance of ethical campaigns, led by advocates determined to present major players in the gold industry as morally reprehensible. The ‘No Dirty Gold’ campaign sought to shift the purchasing of gold onto a moral register, in order to challenge the activities of large mining corporations. It was followed by the Fairtrade Foundation’s ‘Fairtrade Gold’ initiative, which had aspirations to support subsistence mining communities at the expense of big business. By directly targeting a luxury material and playing on its inherent social ambiguities, campaigners hoped to thoroughly moralise the purchasing of gold objects. Dr Oakley’s presentation will examine the forces behind this developing social phenomenon, describe the trajectories of a selection of major campaigns, and consider the extent to which these have impacted on public attitudes, gold miners and the actions of consumers, producers and retailers of luxury goods.

Life cycle assessment in the supply chain: a review and case study

The paper addresses the use of Life Cycle Assessment as a tool for analysing freight transport activity in product supply chains. Published works that have assessed freight transport energy use in supply chain operations are reviewed and their results summarized. A case study of the energy use in the supply chains for jeans sold in both the UK and France is presented. The results of this case study indicate that the location from which cotton is sourced can have a major impact on the total energy used in commercial transport in the jeans supply chain. However, overall, this has a limited impact on the total energy used in producing and supplying jeans. This is because the vast majority of total energy used in the supply chain is consumed during cotton cultivation, denim production and jeans manufacture. The work also demonstrates that the amount of energy used by consumers transporting jeans to their homes by car can be greater than the total commercial transport energy used in the supply chain (per kg of jeans transported).

Assessing energy consumption in supply chains

The paper addresses the transport activities and associated energy consumption involved in the production and supply of two products: jeans and yoghurt. In the case of jeans, the analysis is from the locations in which cotton is grown, to retail outlets in the UK; in the case of yoghurt, the analysis is from the supply of milk on farms, to retail outlets in France. The results show that the transport stages from the point of jeans manufacture to UK port are responsible for the greatest proportion of transport energy use per kilogram of jeans in the UK supply chain. In the case of the French yoghurt supply chains, the results indicate that each of the three transport stages from farm to third-party distribution centre consume approximately the same proportion of total freight transport energy. The energy used on the transport stage for yoghurt from third-party distribution centre to retail outlet varies depending on the type of retail outlet served. Far greater quantities of energy are used in transporting jeans than yoghurts from farm/field to retail outlet. This is explained by the distances involved in the respective supply chains. Both case studies demonstrate that the energy used by consumers transporting goods to their homes by car can be as great as total freight transport energy used in the supply chain from farm/field to retail outlet (per kilogram of product transported).

A Community Hub Approach to Older People’s Housing

Purpose. This paper explores the potential of housing with care schemes to act as community hubs. The analysis highlights a range of benefits, barriers and facilitators. Design/methodology/approach. Data is presented from the ASSET project (Adult Social Services Environments and Settings) which used a mixed methods approach including a review of the literature, surveys and in-depth case study interviews. Findings. Most housing with care schemes have a restaurant or café, communal lounge, garden, hairdresser, activity room and laundrette, while many also have a library, gym, computer access and a shop. Many of these facilities are open not just to residents but also to the wider community, reflecting a more integrated approach to community health and adult social care, by sharing access to primary health care and social services between people living in the scheme and those living nearby. Potential benefits of this approach include the integration of older people’s housing, reduced isolation and increased cost effectiveness of local services through economies of scale and by maximising preventative approaches to health and wellbeing. Successful implementation of the model depends on a range of criteria including being located within or close to a residential area and having on-site facilities that are accessible to the public. Originality and Value. This paper is part of a very new literature on community hub models of housing with care in the UK. In the light of new requirements under the Care Act to better coordinate community services, it provides insights into how this approach can work and offers an analysis of the benefits and challenges that will be of interest to commissioners and providers as well as planners. This was a small scale research project based on four case studies. Caution should be taken when considering the findings in different settings.

Analysing energy use in supply chains: the case of fruits & vegetables and furniture

An increasing number of producers, retailers and third-party logistics providers are interested in carrying out energy assessments of their product supply chain. This is due to sensitivity about climate change and carbon emissions, but also to high energy prices. This paper presents an analytical approach developed to measure energy use in logistics activities in product supply chains. The approach (based on the Life Cycle Approach) quantifies energy use in transport and logistics activities at all stages of a product supply chain. The work has demonstrated that such an assessment approach based on the supply chain is useful in comparing the energy use implications of different strategies. This supply chain approach can be used to consider options such as sourcing and distribution centre locations, transport modes, road freight vehicle types and weights, vehicle load factors, empty running, transport distance and the balance between consumer shopping trips and delivery to the home.

Energy efficiency and greenhouse gas emissions of different supply chains: a comparison of French, UK and Belgian cases

Freight transportation system is critical to economic activity but it carries significant environmental costs, notably GHG emissions and climate change : energy use and corresponding CO2 emissions is increasing faster in freight transport than in other sectors and this increase is primarily the result of increased trade. This paper compares the transport activities, associated energy consumption and CO2 emissions of different supply chains for a range of products in three countries: Belgium, France and United Kingdom. Among the products considered are furniture and ‘fruits & vegetables’. For each of these products, different supply chains, involving more or less transport activity and associated energy consumption are analysed in each country. The comparison highlights some of the main factors that influence GHG emissions for different supply chains and illustrates how they vary according to product and country of final distribution. In more detail, the paper addresses the main differences between the supply chains of these products namely, the origin of their sourcing, the logistical organisation between production and retail and different types of retail outlet. The origin of the sourcing impact is mainly related to distance. The impact of the logistical organisation between raw material and retail on GHG emissions is linked to the mode and vehicle choice and to the load factor. As for retail, the consumer trip emissions, between his home and the retail outlet, are also an important part of the whole supply chain emissions. It is worthwhile to notice that our goal in this project is to consider the whole supply chain, from production to consumption. Therefore a particular focus is put on the mobility behaviours of consumers purchasing the studied products during their shopping and dropping back home activities related to these products. Especially a web based survey has been conducted and the gathered results offer an opportunity for drawing a more detailed picture of the associated CO2 emissions. This paper uses the results of an ongoing research on supply chain energy efficiency, funded by ADEME (the French Energy Agency) through the French program on transport research (PREDIT). This research is based on a comprehensive review of the various approaches to quantifying the environmental impacts of supply chains together with data collection from a range of organisations including manufacturers, retailers and transport companies. We will first present the developed methodologies, then the results corresponding to each studied product will be described. A discussion of the potential application of the research approach to the wider debate about the environmental impact of freight transport and the scope for GHG emissions reduction targets to be achieved will be included.