Structural Breaks in Mortality Models and their Consequences

In recent years, the issue of life expectancy has become of upmost importance to pension providers, insurance companies and the government bodies in the developed world. Significant and consistent improvements in mortality rates and, hence, life expectancy have led to unprecedented increases in the cost of providing for older ages. This has resulted in an explosion of stochastic mortality models forecasting trends in mortality data in order to anticipate future life expectancy and, hence, quantify the costs of providing for future aging populations. Many stochastic models of mortality rates identify linear trends in mortality rates by time, age and cohort, and forecast these trends into the future using standard statistical methods. The modeling approaches used failed to capture the effects of any structural change in the trend and, thus, potentially produced incorrect forecasts of future mortality rates. In this paper, we look at a range of leading stochastic models of mortality and test for structural breaks in the trend time series.

The not-so-Irish spurge: Euphorbia hyberna (Euphorbiaceae) and the Littletonian plant ‘steeplechase’

The disjunct distributions of the Lusitanian flora, which are found only in south-west Ireland and northern Iberia, and are generally absent from intervening regions, have been of great interest to biogeographers. There has been much debate as to whether Irish populations represent relicts that survived the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; approximately 21 kya), or whether they recolonized from southern refugia subsequent to the retreat of the ice and, if so, whether this occurred directly (i.e. the result of long distance dispersal) or successively (i.e. in the manner of a ‘steeplechase’, with the English Channel and Irish Sea representing successive ‘water-jumps’ that have to be successfully crossed). In the present study, we used a combined palaeodistribution modelling and phylogeographical approach to determine the glacial history of the Irish spurge, Euphorbia hyberna, the sole member of the Lusitanian flora that is also considered to occur naturally in south-western England. Our findings suggest that the species persisted through the LGM in several southern refugia, and that northern populations are the result of successive recolonization of Britain and Ireland during the postglacial Littletonian warm stage, akin to the ‘steeplechase’ hypothesis.

Cryptic introgression into the Kidney saxifrage (Saxifraga hirsuta) from its more abundant sympatric congener Saxifraga spathularis, and the potential risk of genetic assimilation

Background and Aims: Although hybridization can play a positive role in plant evolution, it has been shown that excessive unidirectional hybridization can result in replacement of a species’ gene pool, and even the extinction ofrare species via genetic assimilation. This study examines levels of introgression between the common Saxifraga spathularis and its rarer congener S. hirsuta, which have been observed to hybridize in the wild where they occursympatrically. 
Methods: Seven species-specific single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were analysed in 1025 plants representing both species and their hybrid, S. polita, from 29 sites across their ranges in Ireland. In addition, species distributionmodelling was carried out to determine whether the relative abundance of the two parental species is likely to change under future climate scenarios. 
Key Results: Saxifraga spathularis individuals tended to be genetically pure, exhibiting little or no introgression from S. hirsuta, but significant levels of introgression of S. spathularis alleles into S. hirsuta were observed, indicatingthat populations exhibiting S. hirsuta morphology are more like a hybrid swarm, consisting of backcrosses and F2s. Populations of the hybrid, S. polita, were generally comprised of F1s or F2s, with some evidence of backcrossing. Species distribution modelling under projected future climate scenarios indicated an increase in suitable habitats for both parental species.
Conclusions: Levels of introgression observed in this study in both S. spathularis and S. hirsuta would appear to be correlated with the relative abundance of the species. Significant introgression of S. spathularis alleles was detectedin the majority of the S. hirsuta populations analysed and, consequently, ongoing introgression would appear to represent a threat to the genetic integrity of S. hirsuta, particularly in areas where the species exists sympatricallywith its congener and where it is greatly outnumbered.

Coexistence of congeneric native and invasive species: The case of the green algae Codium spp. in northwestern Spain

We examined the patterns of distribution and abundance, and reproductive traits (presence of gametophytes and size at time of reproduction) in the invasive Codium fragile ssp. fragile and the native C. tomentosum and C. vermilara on intertidal habitats of NW Spain at two dates. All three species coexist in the locations and habitats studied, although abundances were low. We found a greater proportion of C. fragile ssp. fragile towards the east of the Cantabrian coast and on upper levels on the shore, where conditions are more stressful. The proportion of thalli bearing gametangia in C. fragile ssp. fragile was greater than in the native species in all habitats. The presence of gametangia was size-dependent for all species, with the invasive species maturing at a smaller size, which combined with the previous features, might confer competitive advantages to this species over the native species. We also demonstrated that molecular analyses are necessary for the correct identification of C. fragile subspecies.

Family-based associations in measures of psychological distress and quality of life in a cardiac screening clinic for inheritable cardiac diseases: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND: Family-based cardiac screening programmes for persons at risk for genetic cardiac diseases are now recommended. However, the psychological wellbeing and health related quality of life (QoL) of such screened patients is poorly understood, especially in younger patients. We sought to examine wellbeing and QoL in a representative group of adults aged 16 and over in a dedicated family cardiac screening clinic.

METHODS: Prospective survey of consecutive consenting patients attending a cardiac screening clinic, over a 12 month period. Data were collected using two health measurement tools: the Short Form 12 (version 2) and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS), along with baseline demographic and screening visit-related data. The HADS and SF-12v.2 outcomes were compared by age group. Associations with a higher HADS score were examined using logistic regression, with multi-level modelling used to account for the family-based structure of the data.

RESULTS: There was a study response rate of 86.6%, with n=334 patients providing valid HADS data (valid response rate 79.5%), and data on n=316 retained for analysis. One-fifth of patients were aged under 25 (n=61). Younger patients were less likely than older to describe significant depression on their HADS scale (p<0.0001), although there were overall no difference between the prevalence of a significant HADS score between the younger and older age groups (18.0% vs 20.0%, p=0.73). Significant positive associates of a higher HADS score were having lower educational attainment, being single or separated, and being closely related to the family proband. Between-family variance in anxiety and depression scores was greater than within-family variance.

CONCLUSIONS: High levels of anxiety were seen amongst patients attending a family-based cardiac screening clinic.Younger patients also had high rates of clinically significant anxiety. Higher levels of anxiety and depression tends to run in families, and this has implications for family screening and intervention programmes.

Is there a common water-activity limit for the three domains of life?

Archaea and Bacteria constitute a majority of life systems on Earth but have long been considered inferior to Eukarya in terms of solute tolerance. Whereas the most halophilic prokaryotes are known for an ability to multiply at saturated NaCl (water activity (a_w) 0.755) some xerophilic fungi can germinate, usually at high-sugar concentrations, at values as low as 0.650–0.605 a_w. Here, we present evidence that halophilic prokayotes can grow down to water activities of <0.755 for Halanaerobium lacusrosei (0.748), Halobacterium strain 004.1 (0.728), Halobacterium sp. NRC-1 and Halococcus morrhuae (0.717), Haloquadratum walsbyi (0.709), Halococcus salifodinae (0.693), Halobacterium noricense (0.687), Natrinema pallidum (0.681) and haloarchaeal strains GN-2 and GN-5 (0.635 a_w). Furthermore, extrapolation of growth curves (prone to giving conservative estimates) indicated theoretical minima down to 0.611 a_w for extreme, obligately halophilic Archaea and Bacteria. These were compared with minima for the most solute-tolerant Bacteria in high-sugar (or other non-saline) media (Mycobacterium spp., Tetragenococcus halophilus, Saccharibacter floricola, Staphylococcus aureus and so on) and eukaryotic microbes in saline (Wallemia spp., Basipetospora halophila, Dunaliella spp. and so on) and high-sugar substrates (for example, Xeromyces bisporus, Zygosaccharomyces rouxii, Aspergillus and Eurotium spp.). We also manipulated the balance of chaotropic and kosmotropic stressors for the extreme, xerophilic fungi Aspergillus penicilloides and X. bisporus and, via this approach, their established water-activity limits for mycelial growth (~0.65) were reduced to 0.640. Furthermore, extrapolations indicated theoretical limits of 0.632 and 0.636 a_w for A. penicilloides and X. bisporus, respectively. Collectively, these findings suggest that there is a common water-activity limit that is determined by physicochemical constraints for the three domains of life.

Developing an international Pseudomonas aeruginosa reference panel

Pseudomonas aeruginosa is a major opportunistic pathogen in cystic fibrosis (CF) patients and causes a wide range of infections among other susceptible populations. Its inherent resistance to many antimicrobials also makes it difficult to treat infections with this pathogen. Recent evidence has highlighted the diversity of this species, yet despite this, the majority of studies on virulence and pathogenesis focus on a small number of strains. There is a pressing need for a P. aeruginosa reference panel to harmonize and coordinate the collective efforts of the P. aeruginosa research community. We have collated a panel of 43 P. aeruginosa strains that reflects the organism's diversity. In addition to the commonly studied clones, this panel includes transmissible strains, sequential CF isolates, strains with specific virulence characteristics, and strains that represent serotype, genotype or geographic diversity. This focussed panel of P. aeruginosa isolates will help accelerate and consolidate the discovery of virulence determinants, improve our understanding of the pathogenesis of infections caused by this pathogen, and provide the community with a valuable resource for the testing of novel therapeutic agents.

Tiotropium and olodaterol fixed-dose combination versus mono-components in COPD (GOLD 2-4)

Efficacy and safety of tiotropium+olodaterol fixed-dose combination (FDC) compared with the mono-components was evaluated in patients with moderate to very severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in two replicate, randomised, double-blind, parallel-group, multicentre, phase III trials. Patients received tiotropium+olodaterol FDC 2.5/5 μg or 5/5 μg, tiotropium 2.5 μg or 5 μg, or olodaterol 5 μg delivered once-daily via Respimat inhaler over 52 weeks. Primary end points were forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) area under the curve from 0 to 3 h (AUC0-3) response, trough FEV1 response and St George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ) total score at 24 weeks. In total, 5162 patients (2624 in Study 1237.5 and 2538 in Study 1237.6) received treatment. Both FDCs significantly improved FEV1 AUC0-3 and trough FEV1 response versus the mono-components in both studies. Statistically significant improvements in SGRQ total score versus the mono-components were only seen for tiotropium+olodaterol FDC 5/5 μg. Incidence of adverse events was comparable between the FDCs and the mono-components. These studies demonstrated significant improvements in lung function and health-related quality of life with once-daily tiotropium+olodaterol FDC versus mono-components over 1 year in patients with moderate to very severe COPD.