Bargaining for power and information : an experimental and theoretical analysis of the interaction between institutions, externalities and adverse selection

Bargaining is the building block of many economic interactions, ranging from bilateral to multilateral encounters and from situations in which the actors are individuals to negotiations between firms or countries. In all these settings, economists have been intrigued for a long time by the fact that some projects, trades or agreements are not realized even though they are mutually beneficial. On the one hand, this has been explained by incomplete information. A firm may not be willing to offer a wage that is acceptable to a qualified worker, because it knows that there are also unqualified workers and cannot distinguish between the two types. This phenomenon is known as adverse selection. On the other hand, it has been argued that even with complete information, the presence of externalities may impede efficient outcomes. To see this, consider the example of climate change. If a subset of countries agrees to curb emissions, non-participant regions benefit from the signatories’ efforts without incurring costs. These free riding opportunities give rise to incentives to strategically improve ones bargaining power that work against the formation of a global agreement. This thesis is concerned with extending our understanding of both factors, adverse selection and externalities. The findings are based on empirical evidence from original laboratory experiments as well as game theoretic modeling. On a very general note, it is demonstrated that the institutions through which agents interact matter to a large extent. Insights are provided about which institutions we should expect to perform better than others, at least in terms of aggregate welfare. Chapters 1 and 2 focus on the problem of adverse selection. Effective operation of markets and other institutions often depends on good information transmission properties. In terms of the example introduced above, a firm is only willing to offer high wages if it receives enough positive signals about the worker’s quality during the application and wage bargaining process. In Chapter 1, it will be shown that repeated interaction coupled with time costs facilitates information transmission. By making the wage bargaining process costly for the worker, the firm is able to obtain more accurate information about the worker’s type. The cost could be pure time cost from delaying agreement or cost of effort arising from a multi-step interviewing process. In Chapter 2, I abstract from time cost and show that communication can play a similar role. The simple fact that a worker states to be of high quality may be informative. In Chapter 3, the focus is on a different source of inefficiency. Agents strive for bargaining power and thus may be motivated by incentives that are at odds with the socially efficient outcome. I have already mentioned the example of climate change. Other examples are coalitions within committees that are formed to secure voting power to block outcomes or groups that commit to different technological standards although a single standard would be optimal (e.g. the format war between HD and BlueRay). It will be shown that such inefficiencies are directly linked to the presence of externalities and a certain degree of irreversibility in actions. I now discuss the three articles in more detail. In Chapter 1, Olivier Bochet and I study a simple bilateral bargaining institution that eliminates trade failures arising from incomplete information. In this setting, a buyer makes offers to a seller in order to acquire a good. Whenever an offer is rejected by the seller, the buyer may submit a further offer. Bargaining is costly, because both parties suffer a (small) time cost after any rejection. The difficulties arise, because the good can be of low or high quality and the quality of the good is only known to the seller. Indeed, without the possibility to make repeated offers, it is too risky for the buyer to offer prices that allow for trade of high quality goods. When allowing for repeated offers, however, at equilibrium both types of goods trade with probability one. We provide an experimental test of these predictions. Buyers gather information about sellers using specific price offers and rates of trade are high, much as the model’s qualitative predictions. We also observe a persistent over-delay before trade occurs, and this mitigates efficiency substantially. Possible channels for over-delay are identified in the form of two behavioral assumptions missing from the standard model, loss aversion (buyers) and haggling (sellers), which reconcile the data with the theoretical predictions. Chapter 2 also studies adverse selection, but interaction between buyers and sellers now takes place within a market rather than isolated pairs. Remarkably, in a market it suffices to let agents communicate in a very simple manner to mitigate trade failures. The key insight is that better informed agents (sellers) are willing to truthfully reveal their private information, because by doing so they are able to reduce search frictions and attract more buyers. Behavior observed in the experimental sessions closely follows the theoretical predictions. As a consequence, costless and non-binding communication (cheap talk) significantly raises rates of trade and welfare. Previous experiments have documented that cheap talk alleviates inefficiencies due to asymmetric information. These findings are explained by pro-social preferences and lie aversion. I use appropriate control treatments to show that such consideration play only a minor role in our market. Instead, the experiment highlights the ability to organize markets as a new channel through which communication can facilitate trade in the presence of private information. In Chapter 3, I theoretically explore coalition formation via multilateral bargaining under complete information. The environment studied is extremely rich in the sense that the model allows for all kinds of externalities. This is achieved by using so-called partition functions, which pin down a coalitional worth for each possible coalition in each possible coalition structure. It is found that although binding agreements can be written, efficiency is not guaranteed, because the negotiation process is inherently non-cooperative. The prospects of cooperation are shown to crucially depend on i) the degree to which players can renegotiate and gradually build up agreements and ii) the absence of a certain type of externalities that can loosely be described as incentives to free ride. Moreover, the willingness to concede bargaining power is identified as a novel reason for gradualism. Another key contribution of the study is that it identifies a strong connection between the Core, one of the most important concepts in cooperative game theory, and the set of environments for which efficiency is attained even without renegotiation.

Blocking of LFA-1 enhances expansion of Th17 cells induced by human CD14(+) CD16(++) nonclassical monocytes.

Among human peripheral blood (PB) monocyte (Mo) subsets, the classical CD14(++) CD16(-) (cMo) and intermediate CD14(++) CD16(+) (iMo) Mos are known to activate pathogenic Th17 responses, whereas the impact of nonclassical CD14(+) CD16(++) Mo (nMo) on T-cell activation has been largely neglected. The aim of this study was to obtain new mechanistic insights on the capacity of Mo subsets from healthy donors (HDs) to activate IL-17(+) T-cell responses in vitro, and assess whether this function was maintained or lost in states of chronic inflammation. When cocultured with autologous CD4(+) T cells in the absence of TLR-2/NOD2 agonists, PB nMos from HDs were more efficient stimulators of IL-17-producing T cells, as compared to cMo. These results could not be explained by differences in Mo lifespan and cytokine profiles. Notably, however, the blocking of LFA-1/ICAM-1 interaction resulted in a significant increase in the percentage of IL-17(+) T cells expanded in nMo/T-cell cocultures. As compared to HD, PB Mo subsets of patients with rheumatoid arthritis were hampered in their T-cell stimulatory capacity. Our new insights highlight the role of Mo subsets in modulating inflammatory T-cell responses and suggest that nMo could become a critical therapeutic target against IL-17-mediated inflammatory diseases.

The HARPS search for southern extra-solar planets XXXVII. Five new long-period giant planets and a system update

We describe radial-velocity time series obtained by HARPS on the 3.60 m telescope in La Silla (ESO, Chile) over ten years and report the discovery of five new giant exoplanets in distant orbits; these new planets orbit the stars HD 564, HD 30669, HD 108341, and BD -114672. Their periods range from 492 to 1684 days, semi-major axes range from 1.2 to 2.69 AU, and eccentricities range from 0 to 0.85. Their minimum mass ranges from 0.33 to 3.5 MJup. We also refine the parameters of two planets announced previously around HD 113538, based on a longer series of measurements. The planets have a period of 663 ± 8 and 1818 ± 25 days, orbital eccentricities of 0.14 ± 0.08 and 0.20 ± 0.04, and minimum masses of 0.36 ± 0.04 and 0.93 ± 0.06 MJup. Finally, we report the discovery of a new hot-Jupiter planet around an active star, HD 103720; the planet has a period of 4.5557 ± 0.0001 days and a minimum mass of 0.62 ± 0.025 MJup. We discuss the fundamental parameters of these systems and limitations due to stellar activity in quiet stars with typical 2 m s-1 radial velocity precision.

Die jüdischen Arbeiter in London

von Georg Halpern

Die jüdische Ackerbaukolonisation in Palästina und ihre Geschichte

von Willy Bambus

Chronic lymphocytic leukemia: A study of the changing patterns of the natural history, clinical factors associated with prognosis, and risk of second cancers

A retrospective cohort study was conducted among 1542 patients diagnosed with CLL between 1970 and 2001 at the M. D. Anderson Cancer Center (MDACC). Changes in clinical characteristics and the impact of CLL on life expectancy were assessed across three decades (1970–2001) and the role of clinical factors on prognosis of CLL were evaluated among patients diagnosed between 1985 and 2001 using Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards method. Among 1485 CLL patients diagnosed from 1970 to 2001, patients in the recent cohort (1985–2001) were diagnosed at a younger age and an earlier stage compared to the earliest cohort (1970–1984). There was a 44% reduction in mortality among patients diagnosed in 1985–1995 compared to those diagnosed in 1970–1984 after adjusting for age, sex and Rai stage among patients who ever received treatment. There was an overall 11 years (5 years for stage 0) loss of life expectancy among 1485 patients compared with the expected life expectancy based on the age-, sex- and race-matched US general population, with a 43% decrease in the 10-year survival rate. Abnormal cytogenetics was associated with shorter progression-free (PF) survival after adjusting for age, sex, Rai stage and beta-2 microglobulin (beta-2M); whereas, older age, abnormal cytogenetics and a higher beta-2M level were adverse predictors for overall survival. No increased risk of second cancer overall was observed, however, patients who received treatment for CLL had an elevated risk of developing AML and HD. Two out of three patients who developed AML were treated with alkylating agents. In conclusion, CLL patients had improved survival over time. The identification of clinical predictors of PF/overall survival has important clinical significance. Close surveillance of the development of second cancer is critical to improve the quality of life of long-term survivors. ^

Modeling survival and the development of second primary tumors among Hodgkin's disease patients

Hodgkin's disease (HD) is a cancer of the lymphatic system. Survivors of HD face varieties of consequent adverse effects, in which secondary primary tumors (SPT) is one of the most serious consequences. This dissertation is aimed to model time-to-SPT in the presence of death and HD relapses during follow-up.^ The model is designed to handle a mixture phenomenon of SPT and the influence of death. Relapses of HD are adjusted as a covariate. Proportional hazards framework is used to define SPT intensity function, which includes an exponential term to estimate explanatory variables. Death as a competing risk is considered according to different scenarios, depending on which terminal event comes first. Newton-Raphson method is used to estimate the parameter estimates in the end.^ The proposed method is applied to a real data set containing a group of HD patients. Several risk factors for the development of SPT are identified and the findings are noteworthy in the development of healthcare guidelines that may lead to the early detection or prevention of SPT.^

Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder and antidepressants and prescription medications: A pilot study

Background. Attention Deficit-Hyperactivity Disorder (AD/HD) diagnosis in children and adolescents has been on the rise over the last couple of decades and a multitude of studies have been conducted in an aim to better understand the disease. Literature has explored the role of several factors suspected of contributing to development of the disease, including: prenatal smoking exposures, environmental exposures, and low-birth weight. However, there is very limited reporting of fetal/infant exposure to antidepressants and prescription medications and the long-term behavioral outcomes, namely development of AD/HD. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the relationship between mother's exposure to prescription medications and/or antidepressants around the time of conception, during pregnancy, or while breastfeeding and the development of Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder in offspring. Methods. Secondary analysis of data from a case-control study was performed. Exposure histories were collected for the mother and offspring. Data were collected using a secure, confidential, self-report, online survey to evaluate the relationship between antidepressant and/or prescription medication exposure and the development of AD/HD. The period of exposure to these drugs was defined as: around the time of conception, during pregnancy, or while breastfeeding. Cases were defined as a child who had been diagnosed with AD/HD. Controls were defined as a child who had not been diagnosed with AD/HD. Results. Prescription medication and antidepressant medication exposures around the time of conception, during pregnancy, or while breastfeeding were not associated with development of AD/HD. However, traumatic brain injury (OR=2.77 (1.61–4.77)) and preterm birth (OR=1.48 (1.04–2.12)) were identified as potential risk factors. These results support existing literature on AD/HD, but future work must be undertaken to better evaluate fetal/infant medication exposures and long-term behavioral outcomes.^

Frequency, severity and distress of dialysis-related symptoms reported by patients on hemodialysis

Purpose. To determine which symptoms are the most reported, occur most frequently, have the greatest severity, and cause the most bother for hemodialysis (HD) patients and to determine if the symptoms experienced differ between the first (HD 1) and second (HD 2) treatments of the week. ^ Design. An observational, comparative design was used to determine participants' HD symptoms experience on HD 1 and HD 2, and the effect of the symptom experience on Quality of Life (QOL). One hundred subjects were recruited from five dialysis centers. ^ Methods. The adapted Dialysis Frequency, Severity and Symptom Burden Index (DFSSBI) and the Medical Outcomes Study Short Form 36 (MOS SF 36) were administered (N = 99) on HD 1 and the DFSSBI again on HD 2. Data were analyzed for significance among symptoms experience test scores in relation to HD 1 and HD 2, QOL, and gender and age. ^ Results. Of 31 symptoms assessed, respondents reported an average of 9.69 symptoms on HD 1 and 7.51 symptoms on HD 2. Overall, more symptoms were reported, and were more frequent, severe and bothersome on HD 1 when the level of metabolic waste is highest. The most reported symptoms included tiredness, dry skin, difficulty falling asleep, itching, numbness/tingling, difficulty staying asleep, decreased interest in sex, and bone/joint pain. Females scored consistently higher than males in the four symptom dimensions. The respondents reported about the same as the population norm (50) on the physical component summary score of the MOS SF 36 and higher than the norm (65.23) on the mental component summary score. ^ Conclusion. The study findings highlighted the fact that hemodialysis patients experience multiple symptoms that can be frequent, severe, and bothersome. Interventions should be developed and tested to reduce symptom burden and improve QOL. ^

Hospital district viability and Medicaid /market changes

Hospital districts (HD) that serve the uninsured and the needy face new challenges with the implementation of Medicaid managed. The potential loss of Medicaid patients and revenues may affect the ability to cost-shift and subsequently decrease the ability of the HD to meet its legal obligation of providing care for the uninsured. ^ To investigate HD viability in the current market, the aims of this study were to: (1) describe HD's environment, (2) document the HDs strategic response, (3) document changes in the HD's performance (patient volume) and financial status, and (4) determine whether relationships or trends exist between HD strategy, performance and financial status. ^ To achieve these aims, three Texas HDs (Fort Worth, Lubbock, and San Antonio) were selected to be evaluated. For each HD four types of strategic responses were documented and evaluated for change. In addition, the ability of each HD to sustain operations was evaluated by documenting performance and financial status changes (patient volume and financial ratios). A pre-post case study design method was used in which the Medicaid managed care “rollout'” date, at each site, was the central date. First, a descriptive analysis was performed which documented the environment, strategy, financial status, and patient volume of each hospital district. Second, to compare hospital districts, each hospital district was: (i) classified by a risk index, (ii) classified by its strategic response profile, and (iii) given a performance score based upon pre-post changes in patient volume and financial indicators. ^ Results indicated that all three HDs operate in a high risk environment compared to the rest of the nation. Two HDs chose the “Status Quo” response whereas one HD chose the “Competitive Proactive” response. Medicaid patient volume decreased in two of three HDs whereas indigent patient volume increased in two of the three (an indication of increasing financial risk). Total patient revenues for all HDs increased over the study period; however, the rate of increase slowed for all three after the Medicaid rollout date. All HDs experienced a decline in financial status between pre-post periods with the greatest decline observed in the HD that saw the greatest increase in indigent patient volume. ^ The pre-post case study format used and the lack of control study sites do not allow for assignment of causality. However, the results suggest possible adverse effects of Medicaid managed care and the need for a larger study, based on a stronger evaluation research design. ^

Ciruelas bajo tela antigranizo : : efecto sobre la calidad

Se evaluó la influencia de la tela antigranizo en la calidad en cosecha y postcosecha de ciruelas japonesas (Prunus salicina Lindl.) cv. Angeleno. Se cosechó fruta de plantas bajo tela y sin tela en dos fechas. Las determinaciones de madurez y calidad se hicieron en cosecha, después de 45 y 60 días de almacenamiento refrigerado (0 °C y HR = 85 %) y luego de un período de maduración a 20 °C. Parámetros considerados: tamaño, color, firmeza de pulpa, contenido de sólidos solubles, pH, acidez titulable, relación CSS/AT, deshidratación y desórdenes fisiológicos (harinosidad). Se realizó un análisis factorial teniendo en cuenta tela antigranizo (T), fecha de cosecha (F) y período de almacenamiento refrigerado (P). Los factores T y F actuaron sobre el tamaño, color de piel, firmeza de pulpa, CSS, AT y CSS/AT en las evaluaciones realizadas en cosecha. Después del período de maduración, los factores T, F y P tuvieron principalmente efecto en la firmeza de pulpa, AT y CSS/AT. La fecha de cosecha y el período de almacenamiento tuvieron una marcada influencia sobre la incidencia de harinosidad.