Approximately optimal experimental design for heteroscedastic Gaussian process models

This paper presents a greedy Bayesian experimental design criterion for heteroscedastic Gaussian process models. The criterion is based on the Fisher information and is optimal in the sense of minimizing parameter uncertainty for likelihood based estimators. We demonstrate the validity of the criterion under different noise regimes and present experimental results from a rabies simulator to demonstrate the effectiveness of the resulting approximately optimal designs.

Unequal OTDM channels in a 2R regenerated, dispersion managed transmission system

The dynamics of switching and transmission of an optical signal comprising individual OTDM channels of unequal amplitudes in a dispersion-managed link with in-line non-linear fibre loop mirrors is investigated for the first time.

Typical behavior of relays in communication channels

The typical behavior of the relay-without-delay channel under low-density parity-check coding and its multiple-unit generalization, termed the relay array, is studied using methods of statistical mechanics. A demodulate-and- forward strategy is analytically solved using the replica symmetric ansatz which is exact in the system studied at Nishimori's temperature. In particular, the typical level of improvement in communication performance by relaying messages is shown in the case of a small and a large number of relay units. © 2007 The American Physical Society.

Fabrication of micro-channels in optical fibers using femtosecond laser pulses and selective chemical etching

The fabrication of micro-channels in single-mode optical fibers is demonstrated using focused femtosecond laser processing and chemical etching. Straight line micro-channels are achieved based on a simple technique which overcomes limitations imposed by the fiber curved surface.

Response normalization and blur adaptation:data and multi-scale model

Adapting to blurred or sharpened images alters perceived blur of a focused image (M. A. Webster, M. A. Georgeson, & S. M. Webster, 2002). We asked whether blur adaptation results in (a) renormalization of perceived focus or (b) a repulsion aftereffect. Images were checkerboards or 2-D Gaussian noise, whose amplitude spectra had (log-log) slopes from -2 (strongly blurred) to 0 (strongly sharpened). Observers adjusted the spectral slope of a comparison image to match different test slopes after adaptation to blurred or sharpened images. Results did not show repulsion effects but were consistent with some renormalization. Test blur levels at and near a blurred or sharpened adaptation level were matched by more focused slopes (closer to 1/f) but with little or no change in appearance after adaptation to focused (1/f) images. A model of contrast adaptation and blur coding by multiple-scale spatial filters predicts these blur aftereffects and those of Webster et al. (2002). A key proposal is that observers are pre-adapted to natural spectra, and blurred or sharpened spectra induce changes in the state of adaptation. The model illustrates how norms might be encoded and recalibrated in the visual system even when they are represented only implicitly by the distribution of responses across multiple channels.

Projected sequential Gaussian processes: flexible interpolation for large data sets

Recently within the machine learning and spatial statistics communities many papers have explored the potential of reduced rank representations of the covariance matrix, often referred to as projected or fixed rank approaches. In such methods the covariance function of the posterior process is represented by a reduced rank approximation which is chosen such that there is minimal information loss. In this paper a sequential framework for inference in such projected processes is presented, where the observations are considered one at a time. We introduce a C++ library for carrying out such projected, sequential estimation which adds several novel features. In particular we have incorporated the ability to use a generic observation operator, or sensor model, to permit data fusion. We can also cope with a range of observation error characteristics, including non-Gaussian observation errors. Inference for the variogram parameters is based on maximum likelihood estimation. We illustrate the projected sequential method in application to synthetic and real data sets. We discuss the software implementation and suggest possible future extensions.

Transmission of non-uniform OTDM channels in nonlinearly-guided dispersion-managed fibre system

The effects of channel inequality on nonlinear signal switching in a nonlinear optical fiber loop mirror (NOLM) were investigated. It was found that the channel-to-channel amplitude differences in optical time division multiplexing (OTDM) have strong impact on swiching behavior of individual channels in a 2R regenerator. The optical pulses in different channels face either suppression of the amplitude noise or increase in noise, depending on the inter-channel amplitude difference. It was stated that appropriate control of the channel uniformity in the OTDM transmitters is required to support stable long-haul transmission in 2R regenerated systems.

Studies on the generalisation of Gaussian processes and Bayesian neural networks

The assessment of the reliability of systems which learn from data is a key issue to investigate thoroughly before the actual application of information processing techniques to real-world problems. Over the recent years Gaussian processes and Bayesian neural networks have come to the fore and in this thesis their generalisation capabilities are analysed from theoretical and empirical perspectives. Upper and lower bounds on the learning curve of Gaussian processes are investigated in order to estimate the amount of data required to guarantee a certain level of generalisation performance. In this thesis we analyse the effects on the bounds and the learning curve induced by the smoothness of stochastic processes described by four different covariance functions. We also explain the early, linearly-decreasing behaviour of the curves and we investigate the asymptotic behaviour of the upper bounds. The effect of the noise and the characteristic lengthscale of the stochastic process on the tightness of the bounds are also discussed. The analysis is supported by several numerical simulations. The generalisation error of a Gaussian process is affected by the dimension of the input vector and may be decreased by input-variable reduction techniques. In conventional approaches to Gaussian process regression, the positive definite matrix estimating the distance between input points is often taken diagonal. In this thesis we show that a general distance matrix is able to estimate the effective dimensionality of the regression problem as well as to discover the linear transformation from the manifest variables to the hidden-feature space, with a significant reduction of the input dimension. Numerical simulations confirm the significant superiority of the general distance matrix with respect to the diagonal one.In the thesis we also present an empirical investigation of the generalisation errors of neural networks trained by two Bayesian algorithms, the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method and the evidence framework; the neural networks have been trained on the task of labelling segmented outdoor images.

Effects of relational policies in export channels

Two key causes of failure for exporters are (1) the availability of adequate resources at the point of entry, and, (2) the quality of the exporter-foreign distributor relationship. Generally, export research has found that, as foreign distributor relationship-specific investments increase and as relational bonds are established, performance improves (e.g., Bello and Gilliland 1997). However, investments and the quality of the relationship are challenged by the foreign distributor’s motivation to participate in the relationship. One way exporters deal with this issue is by developing trade policies, which we refer to as “relational policies,” that are intended to motivate relational behaviors on the part of the foreign distributor.

Numerical and statistical analysis of long-haul undersea optical communication systems

Firstly, we numerically model a practical 20 Gb/s undersea configuration employing the Return-to-Zero Differential Phase Shift Keying data format. The modelling is completed using the Split-Step Fourier Method to solve the Generalised Nonlinear Schrdinger Equation. We optimise the dispersion map and per-channel launch power of these channels and investigate how the choice of pre/post compensation can influence the performance. After obtaining these optimal configurations, we investigate the Bit Error Rate estimation of these systems and we see that estimation based on Gaussian electrical current systems is appropriate for systems of this type, indicating quasi-linear behaviour. The introduction of narrower pulses due to the deployment of quasi-linear transmission decreases the tolerance to chromatic dispersion and intra-channel nonlinearity. We used tools from Mathematical Statistics to study the behaviour of these channels in order to develop new methods to estimate Bit Error Rate. In the final section, we consider the estimation of Eye Closure Penalty, a popular measure of signal distortion. Using a numerical example and assuming the symmetry of eye closure, we see that we can simply estimate Eye Closure Penalty using Gaussian statistics. We also see that the statistics of the logical ones dominates the statistics of the logical ones dominates the statistics of signal distortion in the case of Return-to-Zero On-Off Keying configurations.