A Cox Model for Biostatistics of the Future

Professor Sir David R. Cox (DRC) is widely acknowledged as among the most important scientists of the second half of the twentieth century. He inherited the mantle of statistical science from Pearson and Fisher, advanced their ideas, and translated statistical theory into practice so as to forever change the application of statistics in many fields, but especially biology and medicine. The logistic and proportional hazards models he substantially developed, are arguably among the most influential biostatistical methods in current practice. This paper looks forward over the period from DRC's 80th to 90th birthdays, to speculate about the future of biostatistics, drawing lessons from DRC's contributions along the way. We consider "Cox's model" of biostatistics, an approach to statistical science that: formulates scientific questions or quantities in terms of parameters gamma in probability models f(y; gamma) that represent in a parsimonious fashion, the underlying scientific mechanisms (Cox, 1997); partition the parameters gamma = theta, eta into a subset of interest theta and other "nuisance parameters" eta necessary to complete the probability distribution (Cox and Hinkley, 1974); develops methods of inference about the scientific quantities that depend as little as possible upon the nuisance parameters (Barndorff-Nielsen and Cox, 1989); and thinks critically about the appropriate conditional distribution on which to base infrences. We briefly review exciting biomedical and public health challenges that are capable of driving statistical developments in the next decade. We discuss the statistical models and model-based inferences central to the CM approach, contrasting them with computationally-intensive strategies for prediction and inference advocated by Breiman and others (e.g. Breiman, 2001) and to more traditional design-based methods of inference (Fisher, 1935). We discuss the hierarchical (multi-level) model as an example of the future challanges and opportunities for model-based inference. We then consider the role of conditional inference, a second key element of the CM. Recent examples from genetics are used to illustrate these ideas. Finally, the paper examines causal inference and statistical computing, two other topics we believe will be central to biostatistics research and practice in the coming decade. Throughout the paper, we attempt to indicate how DRC's work and the "Cox Model" have set a standard of excellence to which all can aspire in the future.

Brandon/Hill selected list of print books and journals in allied health*

This list of 424 books and 77 journals is intended as a selection guide for print literature to be used in a library supporting allied health educational programs or allied health personnel in either an academic or health care setting. Because of the impossibility of covering the large number and wide variety of allied health professions and occupations, the recommended publications are focused primarily on the educational programs listed and recognized by the American Medical Association and other accrediting bodies. Books and journals are categorized by subject; the book list is followed by an author/editor index, and the subject list of journals by an alphabetical title listing. Items suggested for initial purchase (167 books and 31 journals) are indicated by asterisks. To purchase the entire collection of books and journals (2000 subscriptions) would require an expenditure of about $31,970. The cost of only the asterisked items totals $12,515.

"A list of the books belonging to the late Library of Harvard College that were in the hands of the Overseers, Governors, & Students of the College & escap'd the flames," ca. 1764

This list appears to be the most comprehensive in this series. Although its contents are very similar to those of the list in Folder 2, there are some discrepancies. Entries are arranged by format (folio, quarto, octavo) and include the date the book was "delivered" (loaned), the name of the individual who borrowed it, and its author, title, and volume number. Many of the books had been out of the library for decades prior to the fire, with some loaned out since as early as 1742.

Draft of "A list of the books belonging to the late Library of Harvard College [...]," ca. 1764

This list appears to be a draft of the list in Folder 1. Although most of the entries match, there are some discrepancies.

Letter from Dr. Nathaniel Lardner to Jasper Mauduit listing books donated to Harvard, July 12, 1764, and manuscript copy of the letter

A pencilled note in the hand of John Langdon Sibley reads: "Probably the handwriting of Dr. Lardner." Sibley based his attribution on a letter from Nathaniel Lardner to Edward Wigglesworth, also written July 12, 1764, in the Houghton Library's autograph file during the nineteenth century. Verso of letter contains list, in another hand, of books donated to Harvard by Joseph Jennings.

List of Dr. Avery's books donated to Harvard by Jasper Mauduit, Oct. 5, 1764

"Dr. Avery" is Benjamin Avery, chairman of the British Committee of Protestant Dissenters, who died in 1764. Mauduit took responsibility for shipping the books which Avery had bequeathed to Harvard.

"Beginning of another catal[og] of Dr. Avery's books" donated, undated

"Dr. Avery" is Benjamin Avery. For further records concerning his bequest to the library, see Box 1 Folders 9-12 and Box 2 Folder 2 of this collection.

List of "Mr. Edes's books," undated

These books appear to have been purchased rather than donated.

Account books of Sylvester Woodbridge, 1792-1826 (inclusive)

Consists of seven account books kept by Dr. Sylvester Woodbridge (1754-1824) from 1792 until his death containing entries that record charges for medical visits and administration of medicines, and sales of sundry and grocery items, as well as occasional personal notes and the names of Woodbridge's apprentices and their participation in his Southampton, Massachusetts, medical practice. Woodbridge's methods of treatment were typical for the era: he most commonly prescribed vomits and purgatives for patients. Volume 6 contains loose pages and letterbooks tucked in related to accounting and to the amount and type of wood Woodbridge was buying for his house, and papers dated after his death.

Any changes? The future agenda of Sweden's security policy. OSW Commentary No. 126, 28.01.2014

Sweden’s annual security and defence conference, which this year focused on the future of the country’s security policy, was held in Sälen on 12-14 January. It was attended by almost all the leaders of Sweden’s ruling and opposition parties. The discussions have revealed whether and how the mindset of the Swedish elite has changed following the heated debates on defence issues in 2013. The opposition parties (Social Democrats, the Green Party, and the Left Party), which are likely to form a coalition government after the election to the Swedish parliament in September 2014, were given the opportunity to present their own priorities. The discussions have brought to the surface conflicting perceptions within the political elite concerning the threats and challenges to Swedish security, and divergent positions on the future direction of the country’s security and defence policy. It is highly likely that, due to a coalition compromise, the current course of Sweden’s security policy (namely, a policy of non-alignment along with close co-operation with NATO) will be maintained following the parliamentary election, albeit with new “leftist” influences (a greater involvement in the United Nations). Big changes that could lead to a significant strengthening of Sweden’s defence capabilities, or a decision on NATO membership, are not likely. Paradoxically, polls suggest that in the long run a more radical change in Stockholm’s security policy may be shaped by a gradual, bottom-up evolution of public opinion on the issue.

State of the Union and key challenges for Europe's future. CHALLENGE EUROPE Issue 22 - Challenges and new beginnings: Priorities for the EU's new leadership, September 2014.

In the last five years deep cracks have appeared in the European project. The 'euro-area crisis' triggered by a severe global financial and economic crisis has put European integration to a major test, more profound than ever before. The experience of recent years has revealed and exacerbated significant deficiencies in the European Union's (EU) economic and political construction. At time it has cast doubt on fundamentals of the European project and raised questions about whether Europe will be able to deal effectively not only with the immediate crisis, but also with the many other serious socio-economic, politico-institutional, societal and global challenges that Europe is and will be confronted with. At the start of a new institutional-political cycle (2014-2019) and while the crisis situation has for a number of reasons improved significantly since the summer of 2012, at least in systemic terms, the Union's new leadership and Member States will now have to take strategic decisions about the future of European integration.

Russia's best ally: The situation of the Russian oil sector and forecast for its future. OSW Study 39/2012

Oil is a strategic raw material for Russia and one of fundamental significance for the functioning of the state and its future. Taxes on oil production and exports are the most important source of state budget revenues which guarantee Russia maintains its political and economic stability. Russia is building its international position on the basis of its vast raw material and energy potential. While a great number of various publications have been devoted to Russian gas and Gazprom, surprisingly little research has been done into the present condition and possible future developments of the Russian oil sector, despite the fact that oil has and will have a much greater impact than gas on the functioning and the future of Russia. The main objective of this text is to describe the present situation of the Russian oil sector, its problems and the challenges it is posing, as well as the government’s policy towards this key branch of the Russian economy. This will be an introduction to an attempt to answer to the questions about the possible future production and the export levels of Russian oil, also broken down into the European and Asian directions.

Catalogue of the books in the circulating library ...

Vol. 2 includes additions from the publication of v. 1, 1889 to 1896; v. 3, additions between January, 1896 and July 1904.

The bibliographer's manual of English literature containing an account of rare, curious, and useful books, published in or relating to Great Britain and Ireland, from the invention of printing; with bibliographical and critical notices, collations of the rarer articles, and the prices at which they have been sold.

Vol. 6 has special title: Appendix to the Bibliographer's manual of English literature. Containing an account of books issued by literary and scientific societies and printing clubs; books printed at private presses; privately printed series; and the principal literary and scientific serials. Comp. by Henry G. Bohn ...