976 resultados para Future Scenarios.


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The competitiveness of businesses is increasingly dependent on their electronic networks with customers, suppliers, and partners. While the strategic and operational impact of external integration and IOS adoption has been extensively studied, much less attention has been paid to the organizational and technical design of electronic relationships. The objective of our longitudinal research project is the development of a framework for understanding and explaining B2B integration. Drawing on existing literature and empirical cases we present a reference model (a classification scheme for B2B Integration). The reference model comprises technical, organizational, and institutional levels to reflect the multiple facets of B2B integration. In this paper we onvestigate the current state of electronic collaboration in global supply chains focussing on the technical view. Using an indepth case analysis we identify five integration scenarios. In the subsequent confirmatory phase of the research we analyse 112 real-world company cases to validate these five integration scenarios. Our research advances and deepens existing studies by developing a B2B reference model, which reflects the current state of practice and is independent of specific implementation technologies. In the next stage of the research the emerging reference model will be extended to create an assessment model for analysing the maturity level of a given company in a specific supply chain.

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Understanding how communities of living organisms assemble has been a central question in ecology since the early days of the discipline. Disentangling the different processes involved in community assembly is not only interesting in itself but also crucial for an understanding of how communities will behave under future environmental scenarios. The traditional concept of assembly rules reflects the notion that species do not co-occur randomly but are restricted in their co-occurrence by interspecific competition. This concept can be redefined in a more general framework where the co-occurrence of species is a product of chance, historical patterns of speciation and migration, dispersal, abiotic environmental factors, and biotic interactions, with none of these processes being mutually exclusive. Here we present a survey and meta-analyses of 59 papers that compare observed patterns in plant communities with null models simulating random patterns of species assembly. According to the type of data under study and the different methods that are applied to detect community assembly, we distinguish four main types of approach in the published literature: species co-occurrence, niche limitation, guild proportionality and limiting similarity. Results from our meta-analyses suggest that non-random co-occurrence of plant species is not a widespread phenomenon. However, whether this finding reflects the individualistic nature of plant communities or is caused by methodological shortcomings associated with the studies considered cannot be discerned from the available metadata. We advocate that more thorough surveys be conducted using a set of standardized methods to test for the existence of assembly rules in data sets spanning larger biological and geographical scales than have been considered until now. We underpin this general advice with guidelines that should be considered in future assembly rules research. This will enable us to draw more accurate and general conclusions about the non-random aspect of assembly in plant communities.

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Cell-based regenerative therapy treatment of cardiovascular diseases considered as irreversible, as acute myocardial infarction, chronic ischemic heart failure, non-ischemic dilated cardiomyopathy and refractory angina pectoris. Large randomized clinical trials with hard clinical endpoints are still necessary before considering cell-based regenerative therapy as a valuable alternative therapeutic option in cardiology.

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The recent release of the fifth edition of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-5) by the American Psychiatric Association has led to much debate. For this forum article, we asked BMC Medicine Editorial Board members who are experts in the field of psychiatry to discuss their personal views on how the changes in DSM-5 might affect clinical practice in their specific areas of psychiatric medicine. This article discusses the influence the DSM-5 may have on the diagnosis and treatment of autism, trauma-related and stressor-related disorders, obsessive-compulsive and related disorders, mood disorders (including major depression and bipolar disorders), and schizophrenia spectrum disorders.

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Many studies have forecasted the possible impact of climate change on plant distribution using models based on ecological niche theory. In their basic implementation, niche-based models do not constrain predictions by dispersal limitations. Hence, most niche-based modelling studies published so far have assumed dispersal to be either unlimited or null. However, depending on the rate of climatic change, the landscape fragmentation and the dispersal capabilities of individual species, these assumptions are likely to prove inaccurate, leading to under- or overestimation of future species distributions and yielding large uncertainty between these two extremes. As a result, the concepts of "potentially suitable" and "potentially colonisable" habitat are expected to differ significantly. To quantify to what extent these two concepts can differ, we developed MIGCLIM, a model simulating plant dispersal under climate change and landscape fragmentation scenarios. MIGCLIM implements various parameters, such as dispersal distance, increase in reproductive potential over time, barriers to dispersal or long distance dispersal. Several simulations were run for two virtual species in a study area of the western Swiss Alps, by varying dispersal distance and other parameters. Each simulation covered the hundred-year period 2001-2100 and three different IPCC-based temperature warming scenarios were considered. Our results indicate that: (i) using realistic parameter values, the future potential distributions generated using MIGCLIM can differ significantly (up to more than 95% decrease in colonized surface) from those that ignore dispersal; (ii) this divergence increases both with increasing climate warming and over longer time periods; (iii) the uncertainty associated with the warming scenario can be nearly as large as the one related to dispersal parameters; (iv) accounting for dispersal, even roughly, can importantly reduce uncertainty in projections.

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In many developed countries, including Switzerland, the ongoing increase in life expectancy is driven by the mortality decline among older persons. This has important consequences for both the provision of health care and the management of pension funds. In this context, the Swiss Federal Office of Statistics mandated a small group of experts to provide a critical review on the future evolution of mortality in developed countries. The report starts with an analysis of the past trends in life expectancy. Longevity is defined here as the duration (or the length) of life as observed in population or in individuals. The oldest and still most used indicators of longevity are life expectancy at birth (LE0) at a population level, and maximum life span (MLS) at the individual level (page 9) and in healthy life expectancy (page 19). A discussion on the future evolution of mortality and health is then presented (page 27). A set of recommendations is finally proposed (page 39).

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The localization of Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) refugia is crucial information to understand a species' history and predict its reaction to future climate changes. However, many phylogeographical studies often lack sampling designs intensive enough to precisely localize these refugia. The hairy land snail Trochulus villosus has a small range centred on Switzerland, which could be intensively covered by sampling 455 individuals from 52 populations. Based on mitochondrial DNA sequences (COI and 16S), we identified two divergent lineages with distinct geographical distributions. Bayesian skyline plots suggested that both lineages expanded at the end of the LGM. To find where the origin populations were located, we applied the principles of ancestral character reconstruction and identified a candidate refugium for each mtDNA lineage: the French Jura and Central Switzerland, both ice-free during the LGM. Additional refugia, however, could not be excluded, as suggested by the microsatellite analysis of a population subset. Modelling the LGM niche of T. villosus, we showed that suitable climatic conditions were expected in the inferred refugia, but potentially also in the nunataks of the alpine ice shield. In a model selection approach, we compared several alternative recolonization scenarios by estimating the Akaike information criterion for their respective maximum-likelihood migration rates. The 'two refugia' scenario received by far the best support given the distribution of genetic diversity in T. villosus populations. Provided that fine-scale sampling designs and various analytical approaches are combined, it is possible to refine our necessary understanding of species responses to environmental changes.

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The notion of "First Responder" (FR) refers to the system of first-aid volunteers who act to initiate the first-aid care before the classical emergency help arrives. In 2011, the French-speaking Switzerland counts 19 groups, divided up between four cantons (Fribourg, Vaud, Neuchâtel, Valais). The geographical distribution of those FR shows the stakes of these peripherical areas, with the accessibility difficulties for the emergency services, and a low demography of ambulances and doctors. The number of interventions carried out by the FR has significantly increased during the last years. The association of a quality formation, an excellent knowledge of the ground and a quick intervention has a positive impact on the survival of the patients with vital emergency or traumatic conditions.

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This plan makes 25 recommendations that, when takes together, will take Iowa's infrastructure to the next level, ensure quality of life, and allow the economy to be globally competitive. It requires two fundamental changes in Iowans' prectices: cooperative planning and integration of infrastructure sectors.

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The Iowa Transportation Commission (Commission) and Iowa Department of Transportation (Iowa DOT) develop Iowa’s Five-Year Transportation Improvement Program (Five-Year Program) to inform Iowans of planned investments in our state’s multi-modal transportation system. The Five-Year Program is typically updated and approved each year in June. The Five-Year Program encompasses investments in aviation, transit, railroads, trails, and highways. This brochure describes the programming process used by the Commission and Iowa DOT to develop the highway section of the Five-Year Program.

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[spa] En lo que concierne al cambio climático, los pronósticos de cercanos picos de combustible fósiles parecen buenas noticias pues la mayoría de las emisiones proceden de la quema de combustibles fósiles. Sin embargo, esto podría resultar engañoso de confirmarse las enormes estimaciones de reservas de carbón pues puede divisarse un intercambio de combustible fósiles con baja concentración de carbono (petróleo y gas) por otros de mayor (carbón). Ciñéndonos a esta hipótesis desarrollamos escenarios donde tan pronto el petróleo y el gas natural alcanzan su cénit la extracción de carbón crece lo necesario para compensar el descenso de los primeros. Estimamos las emisiones que se deriva de tales supuestos y las comparamos con el peor escenario del IPCC. Si bien dicho escenario parece improbable concluimos que los picos de petróleo y gas no son suficientes para evitar peligrosas sendas de gases de efecto invernadero. Las concentraciones de CO2 halladas superan con creces las 450 ppm sin signos de remisión.

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The present essay is meant to provide some background on the evolution of the soil science community in Brazil, since its inception, to describe its current situation, and to outline a number of opportunities and challenges facing the discipline in decades to come. The origin of Brazilian agronomy dates back to the beginning of the 19th century as a subdiscipline of botany, and its association with chemistry would later establish it as a science. In the middle of the 19th century, agricultural chemistry was born as a result of this association, leading to the establishment of edaphology, a branch of Soil Science. Another branch of Soil Science, known as pedology, was established as an applied and scientific knowledge in Brazil during the middle of the 20th century. During the same period, the Brazilian Soil Science Society (SBCS) was created, merging the knowledge of both branches and gathering all scientists involved. Twenty years after the SBCS foundation, the creation of Graduate Programs made Brazilian Soil Science enter the modern era, generating crucial knowledge to reach the current levels of agricultural productivity. Part of a community composed of 25 Soil Departments, 15 Graduate Programs and a great number of institutions that promote research and technology transfer, Brazilian soil scientists are responsible for developing solutions for sustainable development, by generating, adapting and transferring technology to the benefit of the country. The knowledge produced by SBCS members has been particularly significant for Brazil to achieve the status of most competitive tropical agriculture in the world. In the future decades, Soil Science will still remain topical in discussions regarding environment care and production of food and fibers, in addition, it will be essential and strategic for certain issues, such as water quality, reducing poverty and development of renewable sources of energy.