Regime Switching Models for Electricity Time Series that Capture Fat Tailed Distributions

In the power market, electricity prices play an important role at the economic level. The behavior of a price trend usually known as a structural break may change over time in terms of its mean value, its volatility, or it may change for a period of time before reverting back to its original behavior or switching to another style of behavior, and the latter is typically termed a regime shift or regime switch. Our task in this thesis is to develop an electricity price time series model that captures fat tailed distributions which can explain this behavior and analyze it for better understanding. For NordPool data used, the obtained Markov Regime-Switching model operates on two regimes: regular and non-regular. Three criteria have been considered price difference criterion, capacity/flow difference criterion and spikes in Finland criterion. The suitability of GARCH modeling to simulate multi-regime modeling is also studied.

Effect of forest-based biofuels production on carbon footprint, Case: Integrated LWC paper mill

International energy and climate strategies also set Finland’s commitments to increasing the use of renewable energy sources and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The target can be achieved by, for example, increasing the use of energy wood. Finland’s forest biomass potential is significant compared with current use. Increased use will change forest management and wood harvesting methods however. The thesis examined the potential for integrated pulp and paper mills to increase bioenergy production. The effects of two bioenergy production technologies on the carbon footprint of an integrated LWC mill were studied at mill level and from the cradle-to-customer approach. The LignoBoost process and FT diesel production were chosen as bioenergy cases. The data for the LignoBoost process were obtained from Metso and for the FT diesel process from Neste Oil. The rest of the information is based on the literature and databases of the KCL-ECO life-cycle computer program and Ecoinvent. In both case studies, the carbon footprint was reduced. From the results, it can be concluded that it is possible to achieve a fossil-fuel-free pulp mill with the LignoBoost process. By using steam from the FT diesel process, the amount of auxiliary fuel can be reduced considerably and the bark boiler can be replaced. With a choice of auxiliary fuels for use in heat production in the paper mill and the production methods for purchased electricity, it is possible to affect the carbon footprints even more in both cases.

Efeito do meio de cultura e do regime de luz na esporulação de Cercospora zeae-maydis

Algumas espécies fúngicas não esporulam satisfatoriamente em meio de cultura, a exemplo de Cercospora zeae-maydis, agente causal da cercosporiose do milho. A esporulação deste patógeno foi avaliada em sete meios de cultura agarizados (V8, suco de tomate temperado, água de coco, aveia, BDA, extrato de folha de milho e extrato de folha de milho + CaCO3) sob dois regimes luminosos (fotoperíodo de 12 horas e seqüencial - 6 dias claro/3 dias escuro). O ensaio foi conduzido em esquema fatorial 7 x 2, com os tratamentos dispostos em delineamento inteiramente casualizado com cinco repetições. A parcela experimental compreendeu uma placa de petri contendo 20 mL de meio de cultura sobre o qual foram colocados 200 mL de uma suspensão de 8 x 10(4) esporos/mL. As culturas foram posteriormente incubadas a 27ºC durante nove dias. Os meios V8 e suco de tomate temperado (STT) sob regime de fotoperíodo 12h/12h, foram aqueles que apresentaram melhor indução de esporulação, resultando na produção de 22,4 x 10(4) conídios/ mL e 28,62 x 10(4) conídios/mL, respectivamente.