871 resultados para Forecasting, teleriscaldamento, metodi previsionali, Weka
Resumo:
The thesis deals with cultural differences and language barrier in a Finnish-Polish working environment. The object is to find out what kind of language and cultural practices prevail and what are their consequences. This qualitative research focuses on problem solving strategies used to manage language barrier and cultural differences and their effect on power relations within the working environment and in relation to e.g. parent company, business partners or customers. The research data was collected by half-structured individual interviews of 24 Finns and Poles in seven companies in Poland. The research indicates that language practices as well as Polish employees' language skills significantly affect information flows: those Poles, who have good language skills, are less dependent on their Finnish superior and thanks to their contacts with Finnish parent company they gain adequate information. Different time perceptions next to the perceived slowness of Finns are one of the most important factors causing cultural conflicts in the researched working environments. Most often mentioned by Finns were issues of trust. However, the problematic issues brought up most were often things that the respondents could not influence since they did not concern the closest working environment but others. It seems that the contrast that used to be strong between superiors and subordinates in Poland has - partly due to the Finns' informal management style - in these mixed working environments transformed into a contrast between own working environment and the outsiders.
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This paper reports an experiment undertaken to examine the impact of burning in spring together with reduced grazing pressure on the dynamics of H. contortus and Aristida spp. In H. contortus pasture in south-eastern Queensland. The overall results indicate that spring burning in combination with reduced grazing pressure had no marked effect on the density of either grass species. This was attributed to 2 factors. Firstly, extreme drought conditions restricted any increase in H. contortus seedling establishment despite the presence of an adequate soil seed bank prior to summer; and secondly, some differences occurred in the response to fire of the diverse taxonomic groupings in the species of Aristida spp. present at the study site. This study concluded that it is necessary to identify appropriate taxonomic units within the Aristida genus and that, where appropriate, burning in spring to manage pasture composition should be conducted under favorable rainfall conditions using seasonal forecasting indicators such as the Southern Oscillation Index
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The Gascoyne-Murchison region of Western Australia experiences an arid to semi-arid climate with a highly variable temporal and spatial rainfall distribution. The region has around 39.2 million hectares available for pastoral lease and supports predominantly catle and sheep grazing leases. In recent years a number of climate forecasting systems have been available offering rainfall probabilities with different lead times and a forecast period; however, the extent to which these systems are capable of fulfilling the requirements of the local pastoralists is still ambiguous. Issues can range from ensuring forecasts are issued with sufficient lead time to enable key planning or decisions to be revoked or altered, to ensuring forecast language is simple and clear, to negate possible misunderstandings in interpretation. A climate research project sought to provide an objective method to determine which available forecasting systems had the greatest forecasting skill at times of the year relevant to local property management. To aid this climate research project, the study reported here was undertaken with an overall objective of exploring local pastoralists' climate information needs. We also explored how well they understand common climate forecast terms such as 'mean', median' and 'probability', and how they interpret and apply forecast information to decisions. A stratified, proportional random sampling was used for the purpose of deriving the representative sample based on rainfall-enterprise combinations. In order to provide more time for decision-making than existing operational forecasts that are issued with zero lead time, pastoralists requested that forecasts be issued for May-July and January-March with lead times counting down from 4 to 0 months. We found forecasts of between 20 and 50 mm break-of-season or follow-up rainfall were likely to influence decisions. Eighty percent of pastoralists demonstrated in a test question that they had a poor technical understanding of how to interpret the standard wording of a probabilistic median rainfall forecast. this is worthy of further research to investigate whether inappropriate management decisions are being made because the forecasts are being misunderstood. We found more than half the respondents regularly access and use weather and climate forecasts or outlook information from a range of sources and almost three-quarters considered climate information or tools useful, with preferred methods for accessing this information by email, faxback service, internet and the Department of Agriculture Western Australia's Pastoral Memo. Despite differences in enterprise types and rainfall seasonality across the region we found seasonal climate forecasting needs were relatively consistent. It became clear that providing basic training and working with pastoralists to help them understand regional climatic drivers, climate terminology and jargon, and the best ways to apply the forecasts to enhance decision-making are important to improve their use of information. Consideration could also be given to engaging a range of producers to write the climate forecasts themselves in the language they use and understand, in consultation with the scientists who prepare the forecasts.
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In this paper we present a novel application of scenario methods to engage a diverse constituency of senior stakeholders, with limited time availability, in debate to inform planning and policy development. Our case study project explores post-carbon futures for the Latrobe Valley region of the Australian state of Victoria. Our approach involved initial deductive development of two ‘extreme scenarios’ by a multi-disciplinary research team, based upon an extensive research programme. Over four workshops with the stakeholder constituency, these initial scenarios were discussed, challenged, refined and expanded through an inductive process, whereby participants took ‘ownership’ of a final set of three scenarios. These were both comfortable and challenging to them. The outcomes of this process subsequently informed public policy development for the region. Whilst this process did not follow a single extant structured, multi-stage scenario approach, neither was it devoid of form. Here, we seek to theorise and codify elements of our process – which we term ‘scenario improvisation’ – such that others may adopt it.
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The accuracy of synoptic-based weather forecasting deteriorates rapidly after five days and is not routinely available beyond 10 days. Conversely, climate forecasts are generally not feasible for periods of less than 3 months, resulting in a weather-climate gap. The tropical atmospheric phenomenon known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) has a return interval of 30 to 80 days that might partly fill this gap. Our near-global analysis demonstrates that the MJO is a significant phenomenon that can influence daily rainfall patterns, even at higher latitudes, via teleconnections with broadscale mean sea level pressure (MSLP) patterns. These weather states provide a mechanistic basis for an MJO-based forecasting capacity that bridges the weather-climate divide. Knowledge of these tropical and extra-tropical MJO-associated weather states can significantly improve the tactical management of climate-sensitive systems such as agriculture.
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This paper aims to compare the shift in frequency distribution and skill of seasonal climate forecasting of both streamflow and rainfall in eastern Australia based on the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) Phase system. Recent advances in seasonal forecasting of climate variables have highlighted opportunities for improving decision making in natural resources management. Forecasting of rainfall probabilities for different regions in Australia is available, but the use of similar forecasts for water resource supply has not been developed. The use of streamflow forecasts may provide better information for decision-making in irrigation supply and flow management for improved ecological outcomes. To examine the relative efficacy of seasonal forecasting of streamflow and rainfall, the shift in probability distributions and the forecast skill were evaluated using the Wilcoxon rank-sum test and the linear error in probability space (LEPS) skill score, respectively, at three river gauging stations in the Border Rivers Catchment of the Murray-Darling Basin in eastern Australia. A comparison of rainfall and streamflow distributions confirms higher statistical significance in the shift of streamflow distribution than that in rainfall distribution. Moreover, streamflow distribution showed greater skill of forecasting with 0-3 month lead time, compared to rainfall distribution.
Resumo:
Itämerensuomalaisissa kielissä esiintyy suuri joukko sanoja, jotka muistuttavat balttilaisten kielten sanoja sekä muotonsa että merkityksensä puolesta. Yhtäläisyyksiä oli yritetty selittää eri tavoin 1700-luvulta lähtien, kunnes Vilhelm Thomsen vuonna 1869 osoitti tämän sanastokerrostuman olevan lainaa jostakin muinaisbalttilaisesta kielimuodosta nykyisten itämerensuomalaisten kielten yhteiseen kantakieleen. Vuonna 1890 Thomsen julkaisi aiheesta laajemman tutkimuksen, jossa hän esitti noin 200 muinaisbalttilaista lainaetymologiaa ja käsitteli lainojen äännevastaavuuksia sekä kielellisten kontaktien paikkaa, aikakautta ja kulttuurikontekstia. Nykykäsitys itämerensuomalaisten kielten vanhoista balttilaisista lainasanoista perustuu tähän Thomsenin esitykseen, ainoastaan kontaktien ajoituksia on arkeologian tulosten myötä siirretty taaksepäin. Thomsen sovelsi ensimmäisenä suomalais-ugrilaisten kielten tutkimukseen aikakautensa uusinta kielitieteellistä metodia, nuorgrammatiikkaa. Nuorgrammatiikka keskittyi kielihistoriaan ja antoi eksaktit välineet etymologialle. Suomeen nuorgrammatiikan toi E. N. Setälä, jonka johdolla metodi uudisti nopeasti koko fennougristiikan ja nosti Suomen tutkimuksen kärkeen. Suomalaistutkijat tarkensivat myös Thomsenin luomaa kuvaa vanhoista balttilaisista lainoista. Setälän ohella keskeisiä etymologeja olivat J. J. Mikkola ja Heikki Paasonen. Muualla tutkimus ei ollut yhtä intensiivistä: vain liettualainen Kazimieras Būga perehtyi mainittavasti aiheeseen, ja hänenkin tutkijan uransa jäi lyhyeksi. Vasta 1910-luvun puolessa välissä Thomsenin ja Setälän teesejä alettiin kritikoida. Torsten Karsten ja K. B. Wiklund esittivät vanhimmille balttilaiskontakteille paljon kauemmas menneisyyteen ulottuvia ajoituksia kuin Thomsen. Setälän auktoriteetti kuitenkin torjui uudet teoriat, jotka on vasta paljon myöhemmin yleisesti hyväksytty. Sotien välinen kausi oli erittäin vilkkaan etymologisen tutkimuksen aikaa, ja balttilaisiakin lainoja esitettiin kymmeniä lisää. Ajan uutterimmat tutkijat olivat Heikki Ojansuu, Yrjö Toivonen ja Jalo Kalima. Luonnollisesti myös monet Thomsenin balttilaiset etymologiat korvattiin paremmin sopivilla lainaetymologioilla tai rinnastuksilla sukukielistä. Mikkola arvosteli hyvin voimakkaasti Thomsenin lainaetymologioita. Mikkolan kritiikki osoittautui pääosin pätemättömäksi, mutta on päässyt epäsuorasti vaikuttamaan myöhempään tutkimukseen. Eino Nieminen taas esitti vuonna 1934 hypoteesin, jonka mukaan ainakin osa vanhoista balttilaislainoista voisi olla peräisin muinaiskuurin kielestä, jota baltologit olivat parin vuosikymmenen ajan pyrkineet rekonstruoimaan. Jalo Kalima julkaisi vuonna 1936 oppikirjan itämerensuomalaisten kielten vanhoista balttilaislainoista. Kalima pyrki antamaan kattavan kuvan aiheesta, mutta ei onnistunut kovin hyvin. Kaliman tiedot balttilaisista kielistä eivät olleet ajan tutkimuksen tasolla, ja hän jätti kirjassansa käsittelemättä suuren osan uudempaa tutkimusta, mm. Thomsenin ajoituksia kohtaan osoitetun kritiikin sekä kymmenittäin niin Thomsenin kuin myöhempienkin tutkijoitten esittämiä etymologioita. Kaliman kirja on kuitenkin selkeästi laadittu ja sisältää uusia, ansiokkaitakin etymologioita. Kaliman jälkeen kukaan ei ole kirjoittanut yleisesitystä aiheesta. Tämän tutkielman tavoite on antaa kattava kuva vanhimpien itämerensuomalais-balttilaisten kielikontaktien tutkimuksesta ennen Kaliman oppikirjaa. Näin se voisi tasoittaa tietä uudelle alan yleisesitykselle.
Resumo:
Tutkin pro gradu -työssäni vepsän kielen kvanttoripronominien järjestelmää: mitä pronomineja järjestelmään kuuluu, miten nämä pronominit voidaan ryhmitellä sekä millaisia ominaisuuksia pronomineilla on. Pronominiryhmäni nimeksi olen valinnut kvanttoripronominit, sillä perinteinen nimitys indefiniittipronominit ei ole terminä täsmällinen tälle moninaiselle, osin ei-indefiniittiselle ryhmälle. Aineistoni koostuu jo olemassa olevista vepsän kieliopeista ja sanakirjoista, mutta varsinainen analyysini perustuu vepsän kielen tekstinäytteisiin. Näistä työni kannalta tärkeimmät ovat vanhat vepsäläiset murrenäytteet Näytteitä äänis- ja keskivepsän murteista (MSFOu 100) sekä Näytteitä etelävepsästä II (Kettunen 1925). Vertailun vuoksi mukana on myös uutta nykyvepsäläistä aineistoa kuten Kodima-lehden 13 irtonumeroa vuosilta 1999-2008 sekä Markan Evangelii -evankeliumin koepainos (1992). Työni sisältää 211 esimerkkilausetta, jotka olen glossannut ja kääntänyt suomeksi. Esimerkkilauseiden tehtävänä on osoittaa, että morfologisen ja semanttisen analyysini väitteet pitävät paikkansa ja esittelemäni ominaisuudet todella esiintyvät vepsässä. Ryhmittelen vepsän kvanttoripronominit Ison suomen kieliopin (2004) mukaan viiteen alakategoriaan: indefiniittisiin, universaalisiin, kieltohakuisiin, samantekevyyden ja lukumäärän kvanttoripronomineihin. Saman kieliopin mallia hyödynnän myös kvanttoripronominien morfologisessa ja syntaktisessa tarkastelussa. Kerron kustakin pronominista, esiintyykö se substantiivisesti tai adjektiivisesti. Muita tarkasteltavia ominaisuuksia ovat pronominin taipuminen sekä adjektiivisen pronominin kongruenssi ja suhde pääsanaan. Semanttisessa analyysissä sovellan typologisen kielentutkimuksen tutkimustuloksia ja metodeja kuten indefiniittipronominien typologista määritelmää (Haspelmath 1997) ja semanttisten karttojen metodologiaa (Haspelmath 2003). Koska tutkimusaiheeni on niin laaja, käsittelen semantiikan osalta tarkemmin vain niin sanottuja indefiniittipronomineja. Tämä termi sisältää työssäni kvanttoripronominien ryhmittelyn kolme alakategoriaa, indefiniittiset, kieltohakuiset sekä samantekevyyden kvanttoripronominit, mutta pronominien lisäksi mukana ovat myös proadverbit. Määrittelen työssäni vepsän indefiniittipronominisarjat, sillä typologisesti indefiniittipronominit esiintyvät nimenomaan sarjoissa, joissa on yksi jäsen kustakin ontologisesta pääkategoriasta. Tutkin myös vepsän indefiniittipronominisarjojen funktionaalisia eroja eli sarjojen jakautumista yhdeksän perusfunktion kesken. Nämä jakaumat voi esittää distributionaalisena kaavana implikationaalisella kartalla (Haspelmath 1997: 64), ja kaavojen avulla on mahdollista tarkastella synkronisesti funktioiden kieltenvälisiä distribuutioita. Havaintojeni pohjalta hahmottelen vepsän kielen indefiniittipronominien distributionaalisen kaavan ja osoitan, että indefiniittipronominien implikationaalisen kartan metodi on sovellettavissa myös vepsään. Pro gradu -työssäni osoitan, että vepsän kielessä on omaleimainen kvanttoripronominien järjestelmä, vaikka siinä onkin monia yhtymäkohtia prestiisikielen venäjän ja lähisukukielen suomen järjestelmiin.
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We study which factors in terms of trading environment and trader characteristics determine individual information acquisition in experimental asset markets. Traders with larger endowments, existing inconclusive information, lower risk aversion, and less experience in financial markets tend to acquire more information. Overall, we find that traders overacquire information, so that informed traders on average obtain negative profits net of information costs. Information acquisition and the associated losses do not diminish over time. This overacquisition phenomenon is inconsistent with predictions of rational expectations equilibrium, and we argue it resembles the overdissipation results from the contest literature. We find that more acquired information in the market leads to smaller differences between fundamental asset values and prices. Thus, the overacquisition phenomenon is a novel explanation for the high forecasting accuracy of prediction markets.
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Survey methods were engaged to measure the change in use and knowledge of climate information by pastoralists in western Queensland. The initial mail survey was undertaken in 2000-01 (n=43) and provided a useful benchmark of pastoralists climate knowledge. Two years of climate applications activities were completed and clients were re-surveyed in 2003 (n=49) to measure the change in knowledge and assess the effectiveness of the climate applications activities. Two methods were used to assess changes in client knowledge, viz., self-assessment and test questions. We found that the use of seasonal climate forecasts in decision making increased from 36% in 2001 (n=42) to 51% in 2003 (n=49) (P=0.07). The self-assessment technique was unsatisfactory as a measure of changing knowledge over short periods (1-3 years), but the test question technique was successful and indicated an improvement in climate knowledge among respondents. The increased levels of use of seasonal climate forecasts in management and improved knowledge was partly attributed to the climate applications activities of the project. Further, those who used seasonal forecasting (n=25) didn't understand key components of forecasts (e.g. probability, median) better than those who didn't use seasonal forecasts (n=24) (P>0.05). This identifies the potential for misunderstanding and misinterpretation of forecasts among users and highlights the need for providers of forecasts to understand the difficulties and prepare simply written descriptions of forecasts and disseminate these with the maps showing probabilities. The most preferred means of accessing climate information were internet, email, 'The Season Ahead' newsletter and newspaper. The least preferred were direct contact with extension officers and attending field days and group meetings. Eighty-six percent of respondents used the internet and 67% used ADSL broadband internet (April 2003). Despite these findings, extension officers play a key role in preparing and publishing the information on the web, in emails and newsletters. We also believe that direct contact with extension officers trained in climate applications is desirable in workshop-like events to improve knowledge of the difficult concepts underpinning climate forecasts, which may then stimulate further adoption.
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In 2001, an incursion of Mycosphaerella fijiensis, the causal agent of black Sigatoka, was detected in Australia's largest commercial banana growing region, the Tully Banana Production Area in North Queensland. An intensive surveillance and eradication campaign was undertaken which resulted in the reinstatement of the disease-free status for black Sigatoka in 2005. This was the first time black Sigatoka had ever been eradicated from commercial plantations. The success of the eradication campaign was testament to good working relationships between scientists, growers, crop monitors, quarantine regulatory bodies and industry. A key contributing factor to the success was the deployment of a PCR-based molecular diagnostic assay, developed by the Cooperative Research Centre for Tropical Plant Protection (CRCTPP). This assay complemented morphological identification and allowed high throughput diagnosis of samples facilitating rapid decision-making during the eradication campaign. This paper describes the development and successful deployment of molecular diagnostics for black Sigatoka. Shortcomings in the gel-based assay are discussed and the advantages of highly specific real-time PCR assays, capable of differentiating between Mycosphaerella fijiensis, Mycosphaerella musicola and Mycosphaerella eumusae are outlined. Real-time assays may provide a powerful diagnostic tool for applications in surveillance, disease forecasting and resistance testing for Sigatoka leaf spot diseases.
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This book is a study of equality work, that is, the activities which have involved the promotion of gender equality in Finland. The study focuses on the period when the public sector has become more market-oriented, and business-oriented thinking has penetrated activities that have not traditionally emphasised profit-making. I have asked about the kind of power relations that have led to equality work in Finland. In addition to marketisation, publicly funded projects, especially by the European Union, have permeated the public sector. I have analysed the effects this turn has had on the aims and activities of equality work. Despite marketisation, equality work has remained for decades, and problems related to equality have also been recognised. The question of agency is a central focus of this study. I have analysed the kind of agency that has been offered and possible in equality work. With my previous “equality project career”, I have also participated in the formation of my research subject. This study also represents a description of a researcher taking on the responsibility for being involved in the formation of her own research subject. The study data includes national and EU-level political and governmental documents as well as articles and other publications related to equality issues. The data also includes documents from 99 publicly funded equality projects. Notable research data have been drawn from research interviews with 30 people who have been engaged in equality work in different parts of Finland and who have also worked in publicly funded equality projects. As a research method, I have combined Foucault’s discourse analysis and genealogical analysis as well as deconstructive reading. Political and governmental programmes have called for equality work, such as teaching, training, research and other political influencing in order to promote the political interests of the welfare state. Alliance with the state offers the opportunity to accomplish professionalism and continuity. Although equality work has not achieved similar legitimisation compared to other public sector professions. Equality work has fulfilled the interests of welfare state despite current trends towards marketisation. Publicly and budgetary funded equality work has evolved into business-oriented projects in a situation where the project itself has become a new governing mechanism for society. To analyse this trend, I have developed the concept of projectisation. The concept refers to a form of power that has directed discussions of equality in order to be heard. On the other hand, projectisation has contributed to the visibility of problems related to equality while maintaining heteronormativity and hierarchical order of societal differences, especially of gender, as well as harnessing equality for market use, thereby becoming somewhat useful and productive. Equality has been labelled as women’s work and being something that women do and continuity of the equality work has required a complex form of competence. The persistence of problems concerning equality as well as co-operation between women and the “discourse virtuosity ” of equality work has also opened up opportunities for situational change. Key words: Equality work, project, projectisation, genealogical method, discourse analysis, deconstructive reading, heteronormativity, agency, discourse virtuosity.
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Given the growing importance of the Chinese tourist market to Australia, an understanding of Chinese tourists' arrival patterns is essential to accurate forecasting of future arrivals. Drawing on 25 years of records (1991-2015), this study developed a time-series model of monthly arrivals of Chinese tourists in Australia. The model reflects the exponentially increasing trend and strong seasonality of arrivals. Excellent results from validation of the model's forecasts endorsed this time-series model's potential in the policy prescription and management practice of Australian tourism industries.
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When exposed to hot (22-35 degrees C) and dry climatic conditions in the field during the final 4-6 weeks of pod filling, peanuts (Arachis hypogaea L.) can accumulate highly carcinogenic and immuno-suppressing aflatoxins. Forecasting of the risk posed by these conditions can assist in minimizing pre-harvest contamination. A model was therefore developed as part of the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) peanut module, which calculated an aflatoxin risk index (ARI) using four temperature response functions when fractional available soil water was <0.20 and the crop was in the last 0.40 of the pod-filling phase. ARI explained 0.95 (P <= 0.05) of the variation in aflatoxin contamination, which varied from 0 to c. 800 mu g/kg in 17 large-scale sowings in tropical and four sowings in sub-tropical environments carried out in Australia between 13 November and 16 December 2007. ARI also explained 0.96 (P <= 0.01) of the variation in the proportion of aflatoxin-contaminated loads (>15 mu g/kg) of peanuts in the Kingaroy region of Australia during the period between the 1998/99 and 2007/08 seasons. Simulation of ARI using historical climatic data from 1890 to 2007 indicated a three-fold increase in its value since 1980 compared to the entire previous period. The increase was associated with increases in ambient temperature and decreases in rainfall. To facilitate routine monitoring of aflatoxin risk by growers in near real time, a web interface of the model was also developed. The ARI predicted using this interface for eight growers correlated significantly with the level of contamination in crops (r=095, P <= 0.01). These results suggest that ARI simulated by the model is a reliable indicator of aflatoxin contamination that can be used in aflatoxin research as well as a decision-support tool to monitor pre-harvest aflatoxin risk in peanuts.
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Commercialisation and adoption of remote sensing and GIS technologies for improved production forecasting, productivity, quality and paddock- to- plate tracking within the Australian Peanut Industry.