941 resultados para Folkman Numbers
Resumo:
Significant numbers of children are severely abused and neglected by parents and caregivers. Infants and very young children are the most vulnerable and are unable to seek help. To identify these situations and enable child protection and the provision of appropriate assistance, many jurisdictions have enacted ‘mandatory reporting laws’ requiring designated professionals such as doctors, nurses, police and teachers to report suspected cases of severe child abuse and neglect. Other jurisdictions have not adopted this legislative approach, at least partly motivated by a concern that the laws produce dramatic increases in unwarranted reports, which, it is argued, lead to investigations which infringe on people’s privacy, cause trauma to innocent parents and families, and divert scarce government resources from deserving cases. The primary purpose of this paper is to explore the extent to which opposition to mandatory reporting laws is valid based on the claim that the laws produce ‘overreporting’. The first part of this paper revisits the original mandatory reporting laws, discusses their development into various current forms, explains their relationship with policy and common law reporting obligations, and situates them in the context of their place in modern child protection systems. This part of the paper shows that in general, contemporary reporting laws have expanded far beyond their original conceptualisation, but that there is also now a deeper understanding of the nature, incidence, timing and effects of different types of severe maltreatment, an awareness that the real incidence of maltreatment is far higher than that officially recorded, and that there is strong evidence showing the majority of identified cases of severe maltreatment are the result of reports by mandated reporters. The second part of this paper discusses the apparent effect of mandatory reporting laws on ‘overreporting’ by referring to Australian government data about reporting patterns and outcomes, with a particular focus on New South Wales. It will be seen that raw descriptive data about report numbers and outcomes appear to show that reporting laws produce both desirable consequences (identification of severe cases) and problematic consequences (increased numbers of unsubstantiated reports). Yet, to explore the extent to which the data supports the overreporting claim, and because numbers of unsubstantiated reports alone cannot demonstrate overreporting, this part of the paper asks further questions of the data. Who makes reports, about which maltreatment types, and what are the outcomes of those reports? What is the nature of these reports; for example, to what extent are multiple numbers of reports made about the same child? What meaning can be attached to an ‘unsubstantiated’ report, and can such reports be used to show flaws in reporting effectiveness and problems in reporting laws? It will be suggested that available evidence from Australia is not sufficiently detailed or strong to demonstrate the overreporting claim. However, it is also apparent that, whether adopting an approach based on public health and or other principles, much better evidence about reporting needs to be collected and analyzed. As well, more nuanced research needs to be conducted to identify what can reasonably be said to constitute ‘overreports’, and efforts must be made to minimize unsatisfactory reporting practice, informed by the relevant jurisdiction’s context and aims. It is also concluded that, depending on the jurisdiction, the available data may provide useful indicators of positive, negative and unanticipated effects of specific components of the laws, and of the strengths, weaknesses and needs of the child protection system.
Resumo:
Insect monitoring and sampling programmes are used in the stored grains industry for the detection and estimation of insect pests. At the low pest densities dictated by economic and commercial requirements, the accuracy of both detection and abundance estimates can be influenced by variations in the spatial structure of pest populations over short distances. Geostatistical analysis of Rhyzopertha dominica populations in 2 dimensions showed that, in both the horizontal and vertical directions and at all temperatures examined, insect numbers were positively correlated over short (0-5cm) distances, and negatively correlated over longer (≥10cm) distances. Analysis in 3 dimensions showed a similar pattern, with positive correlations over short distances and negative correlations at longer distances. At 35°C, insects were located significantly further from the grain surface than at 25 and 30°C. Dispersion metrics showed statistically significant aggregation in all cases. This is the first research using small sample units, high sampling intensities, and a range of temperatures, to show spatial structuring of R. dominica populations over short distances. This research will have significant implications for sampling in the stored grains industry.
Resumo:
In the past fifteen years, increasing attention has been given to the role of Vocational Education and Training (VET) in attracting large numbers of international students and its contribution to the economic development of Australia. This trend has given rise to many challenges in vocational education, especially with regard to providing quality education that ensures international students’ stay in Australia is a satisfactory experience. Teachers are key stakeholders in international education and share responsibility for ensuring international students gain quality learning experiences and positive outcomes. However, the challenges and needs of these teachers are generally not well understood. Therefore, this paper draws on the dilemmas faced by teachers of international students associated with professional, personal, ethical and educational aspects. This paper reports on a Masters Research project that is designed to investigate the dilemmas that teachers of international students face in VET in Australia, particularly in Brisbane. This study uses a qualitative approach within the interpretive constructivist paradigm to gain real-life insights through responsive interviewing and inductive data analysis. While the data collection has been done, the analysis of data is in progress. Responsive interviews with teachers of VET with different academic and national backgrounds, ages, industry experience have identified particular understandings, ideologies and representations of what it means to be a teacher in today's multicultural VET environment; provoking both resistances and new pedagogical understanding of teacher dilemmas and their work environment through the eyes of teachers of international students. The paper considers the challenges for the VET practitioners within the VET system while reflecting on the theme for the 2011 AVETRA conference, “Research in VET: Janus- Reflecting Back, Projecting Forward” by focusing particularly on “Rethinking pedagogies and pathways in VET work through the voice of VET workers”.
Resumo:
Here we present a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm that can be used for any one-at-a-time Bayesian sequential design problem in the presence of model uncertainty where discrete data are encountered. Our focus is on adaptive design for model discrimination but the methodology is applicable if one has a different design objective such as parameter estimation or prediction. An SMC algorithm is run in parallel for each model and the algorithm relies on a convenient estimator of the evidence of each model which is essentially a function of importance sampling weights. Other methods for this task such as quadrature, often used in design, suffer from the curse of dimensionality. Approximating posterior model probabilities in this way allows us to use model discrimination utility functions derived from information theory that were previously difficult to compute except for conjugate models. A major benefit of the algorithm is that it requires very little problem specific tuning. We demonstrate the methodology on three applications, including discriminating between models for decline in motor neuron numbers in patients suffering from neurological diseases such as Motor Neuron disease.
Resumo:
‘Sustainability’ is a policy mantra of modern governments particularly in relation to natural resources. The traditional connection between land ownership and access to natural resources, such as forestry, flora, fauna, minerals, water and energy, has given rise to an unprecedented number of restrictions and obligations on land owners in their use of the land and resources. The growing numbers of statutory exceptions and restrictions on rights of ownership and use of a fee simple holder presents serious challenges for the utility of the Torrens register, which was originally designed to record private interests in land or affecting title to land. Advocates proposing uniform Torrens legislation should give consideration to an alignment of government policies emphasising sustainability as a core requirement of effective land use and management, and the core Torrens concepts of indefeasibility and security of title. This article examines the challenges for a uniform Torrens system created by increases statutory regulation of land ownership and makes recommendations about how an effective alignment of sustainability objectives and Torrens principles may be achieved.
Resumo:
Geelong, Victoria’s second city, has an AFL football club whose culture and identity is closely tied to the city itself. An analysis of its playing group for the colonial period demonstrates that this local tribalism began early. As football became professionalised towards the end of the nineteenth century, country Victoria lost power in relative terms to metropolitan Melbourne: for example, Ballarat’s three main clubs lost their senior status. But Geelong, with its one remaining senior club, prospered and was admitted to the VFL ranks in 1897. The Geelong players were the sons and nephews of the Western District squattocracy and so had access to networks of power and influence. Many attended the prestigious Geelong Grammar School and the worthy Geelong College (in surprisingly equal numbers). They pursued careers both on the land and in professional roles, and maintained the social connections they had built through the club and other local institutions. Despite their elite standing, however, they continued to be regarded by the supporter base as an embodiment of the city and a defence against the city’s Melbourne critics that Geelong was a mere ‘sleepy hollow’.
Resumo:
Natural convection in a triangular enclosure subject to non-uniformly cooling at the inclined surfaces and uniformly heating at the base is investigated numerically. The numerical simulations of the unsteady flows over a range of Rayleigh numbers and aspect ratios are carried out using Finite Volume Method. Since the upper surface is cooled and the bottom surface is heated, the air flow in the enclosure is potentially unstable to Rayleigh Benard instability. It is revealed that the transient flow development in the enclosure can be classified into three distinct stages; an early stage, a transitional stage and a steady stage. It is also found that the flow inside the enclosure strongly depends on the governing parameters; Rayleigh number and aspect ratio. The asymmetric behaviour of the flow about the geometric centre line is discussed in detailed. The heat transfer through the roof and the ceiling as a form of Nusselt number is also reported in this study.
Resumo:
This paper will focus on the group of people who were born between 1946 and 1962 immediately after the Second World War when servicemen and women returned from the forces and started families. They have been named the baby boomers because of their numbers. In Australia it is estimated that there are four million baby boomers who are approaching retirement age. The paper raises the question of whether the attitudes we have about older workers need to change and mature. Evidence for questioning entrenched myths about older staff in the work force will be discussed.
Resumo:
Objective: To (1) search the English-language literature for original research addressing the effect of cryotherapy on joint position sense (JPS) and (2) make recommendations regarding how soon healthy athletes can safely return to participation after cryotherapy. Data Sources: We performed an exhaustive search for original research using the AMED, CINAHL, MEDLINE, and SportDiscus databases from 1973 to 2009 to gather information on cryotherapy and JPS. Key words used were cryotherapy and proprioception, cryotherapy and joint position sense, cryotherapy, and proprioception. Study Selection: The inclusion criteria were (1) the literature was written in English, (2) participants were human, (3) an outcome measure included JPS, (4) participants were healthy, and (5) participants were tested immediately after a cryotherapy application to a joint. Data Extraction: The means and SDs of the JPS outcome measures were extracted and used to estimate the effect size (Cohen d) and associated 95% confidence intervals for comparisons of JPS before and after a cryotherapy treatment. The numbers, ages, and sexes of participants in all 7 selected studies were also extracted. Data Synthesis: The JPS was assessed in 3 joints: ankle (n 5 2), knee (n 5 3), and shoulder (n 5 2). The average effect size for the 7 included studies was modest, with effect sizes ranging from 20.08 to 1.17, with a positive number representing an increase in JPS error. The average methodologic score of the included studies was 5.4/10 (range, 5–6) on the Physiotherapy Evidence Database scale. Conclusions: Limited and equivocal evidence is available to address the effect of cryotherapy on proprioception in the form of JPS. Until further evidence is provided, clinicians should be cautious when returning individuals to tasks requiring components of proprioceptive input immediately after a cryotherapy treatment.
Resumo:
In the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries, Australia’s relationship with its Asian neighbours has been the subject of ongoing aesthetic, cultural and political contestations. As Alison Richards has noted, Australia’s colonial legacy, its Asia-Pacific location, and its ‘white’ self-perception have always made Australia’s relations with Asia fraught. In the latter part of the twentieth century, the paradoxes inherent in Australia’s relationships with and within the Asian region became a dominant theme in debates about nation, nationhood and identity, and prompted a shift in the construction of ‘Asianness’ on Australian stages. On the one hand, anxiety about the multicultural policy of the 1970s and 1980s, and then Prime Minister Paul Keating’s push for greater economic, cultural and artistic exchange with Asia via policies such as the Creative Nation Cultural Policy (1994), saw large numbers of Australians latch on to the reactionary, racist politics of Pauline Hanson’s One Nation Party. As Jacqueline Lo has argued, in this period Asian-Australians were frequently represented as an unassimilable Other, a threat to Australia’s ‘white’ identity, and to individual Australians’ jobs and opportunities. On the other hand, during the same period, a desire to counter the racism in Australian culture, and develop a ‘voice’ that would distinguish Australian cultural products from European theatrical traditions, combined with the new opportunities for cross-cultural exchange that came with the Creative Nation Cultural Policy to produce what Helen Gilbert and Jacqueline Lo have characterised as an Asian turn in Australian theatre...
Resumo:
The opening phrase of the title is from Charles Darwin’s notebooks (Schweber 1977). It is a double reminder, firstly that mainstream evolutionary theory is not just about describing nature but is particularly looking for mechanisms or ‘causes’, and secondly, that there will usually be several causes affecting any particular outcome. The second part of the title is our concern at the almost universal rejection of the idea that biological mechanisms are sufficient for macroevolutionary changes, thus rejecting a cornerstone of Darwinian evolutionary theory. Our primary aim here is to consider ways of making it easier to develop and to test hypotheses about evolution. Formalizing hypotheses can help generate tests. In an absolute sense, some of the discussion by scientists about evolution is little better than the lack of reasoning used by those advocating intelligent design. Our discussion here is in a Popperian framework where science is defined by that area of study where it is possible, in principle, to find evidence against hypotheses – they are in principle falsifiable. However, with time, the boundaries of science keep expanding. In the past, some aspects of evolution were outside the current boundaries of falsifiable science, but increasingly new techniques and ideas are expanding the boundaries of science and it is appropriate to re-examine some topics. It often appears that over the last few decades there has been an increasingly strong assumption to look first (and only) for a physical cause. This decision is virtually never formally discussed, just an assumption is made that some physical factor ‘drives’ evolution. It is necessary to examine our assumptions much more carefully. What is meant by physical factors ‘driving’ evolution, or what is an ‘explosive radiation’. Our discussion focuses on two of the six mass extinctions, the fifth being events in the Late Cretaceous, and the sixth starting at least 50,000 years ago (and is ongoing). Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary; the rise of birds and mammals. We have had a long-term interest (Cooper and Penny 1997) in designing tests to help evaluate whether the processes of microevolution are sufficient to explain macroevolution. The real challenge is to formulate hypotheses in a testable way. For example the numbers of lineages of birds and mammals that survive from the Cretaceous to the present is one test. Our first estimate was 22 for birds, and current work is tending to increase this value. This still does not consider lineages that survived into the Tertiary, and then went extinct later. Our initial suggestion was probably too narrow in that it lumped four models from Penny and Phillips (2004) into one model. This reduction is too simplistic in that we need to know about survival and ecological and morphological divergences during the Late Cretaceous, and whether Crown groups of avian or mammalian orders may have existed back into the Cretaceous. More recently (Penny and Phillips 2004) we have formalized hypotheses about dinosaurs and pterosaurs, with the prediction that interactions between mammals (and groundfeeding birds) and dinosaurs would be most likely to affect the smallest dinosaurs, and similarly interactions between birds and pterosaurs would particularly affect the smaller pterosaurs. There is now evidence for both classes of interactions, with the smallest dinosaurs and pterosaurs declining first, as predicted. Thus, testable models are now possible. Mass extinction number six: human impacts. On a broad scale, there is a good correlation between time of human arrival, and increased extinctions (Hurles et al. 2003; Martin 2005; Figure 1). However, it is necessary to distinguish different time scales (Penny 2005) and on a finer scale there are still large numbers of possibilities. In Hurles et al. (2003) we mentioned habitat modification (including the use of Geogenes III July 2006 31 fire), introduced plants and animals (including kiore) in addition to direct predation (the ‘overkill’ hypothesis). We need also to consider prey switching that occurs in early human societies, as evidenced by the results of Wragg (1995) on the middens of different ages on Henderson Island in the Pitcairn group. In addition, the presence of human-wary or humanadapted animals will affect the distribution in the subfossil record. A better understanding of human impacts world-wide, in conjunction with pre-scientific knowledge will make it easier to discuss the issues by removing ‘blame’. While continued spontaneous generation was accepted universally, there was the expectation that animals continued to reappear. New Zealand is one of the very best locations in the world to study many of these issues. Apart from the marine fossil record, some human impact events are extremely recent and the remains less disrupted by time.
Resumo:
Fusion techniques have received considerable attention for achieving lower error rates with biometrics. A fused classifier architecture based on sequential integration of multi-instance and multi-sample fusion schemes allows controlled trade-off between false alarms and false rejects. Expressions for each type of error for the fused system have previously been derived for the case of statistically independent classifier decisions. It is shown in this paper that the performance of this architecture can be improved by modelling the correlation between classifier decisions. Correlation modelling also enables better tuning of fusion model parameters, ‘N’, the number of classifiers and ‘M’, the number of attempts/samples, and facilitates the determination of error bounds for false rejects and false accepts for each specific user. Error trade-off performance of the architecture is evaluated using HMM based speaker verification on utterances of individual digits. Results show that performance is improved for the case of favourable correlated decisions. The architecture investigated here is directly applicable to speaker verification from spoken digit strings such as credit card numbers in telephone or voice over internet protocol based applications. It is also applicable to other biometric modalities such as finger prints and handwriting samples.
Resumo:
Introduction During a recent study of how parents source information about children‘s early learning, one of us made our first serious foray into a local store licensed to the global chain Toys'R' Us. While walking the aisles, closely observing layout, signage and stock, several things became obvious. Firstly, large numbers of toys were labeled'educational'. Secondly, many toys in that category were intended for children under the age of two years. These were further differentiated as intended for 'babies' or 'infants', and sub-categorized on packaging or shelving using even smaller age increments (e.g. 0-3 months, 12-18 months, and so on). Thirdly, many products were labeled as 'interactive' and 'learning' toys that promised to assist children‘s early learning and development. The activation of some of these toys relied on embedded computer chip technology and promised to 'connect' children with the home television, computer and the Internet. These products were hybrids between a toy and a platform for digital media interaction. Closer inspection of toy packaging and other promotional material suggested that industry had begun to invest heavily in developing highly differentiated children‘s markets for products that yoked together concepts of learning and development, the 'fun toy' that incorporates digital technology, and offline- and online participation. In this chapter we explore the growth of this contemporary cultural phenomenon that now connects books, toys and mobile digital media with children‘s play and learning.
Resumo:
Navigational collisions are one of the major safety concerns for many seaports. Despite the extent of work recently done on collision risk analysis in port waters, little is known about the influencing factors of the risk. This paper develops a technique for modeling collision risks in port waterways in order to examine the associations between the risks and the geometric, traffic, and regulatory control characteristics of waterways. A binomial logistic model, which accounts for the correlations in the risks of a particular fairway at different time periods, is derived from traffic conflicts and calibrated for the Singapore port fairways. Estimation results show that the fairways attached to shoreline, traffic intersection and international fairway attribute higher risks, whereas those attached to confined water and local fairway possess lower risks. Higher risks are also found in the fairways featuring higher degree of bend, lower depth of water, higher numbers of cardinal and isolated danger marks, higher density of moving ships and lower operating speed. The risks are also found to be higher for night-time conditions.
Resumo:
Motor vehicle crashes are a leading cause of death among young people. Fourteen percent of adolescents aged 13-14 report passenger-related injuries within three months. Intervention programs typically focus on young drivers and overlook passengers as potential protective influences. Graduated Driver Licensing restricts passenger numbers, and this study focuses on a complementary school-based intervention to increase passengers’ personal- and peer-protective behavior. The aim of this research was to assess the impact of the curriculum-based injury prevention program, Skills for Preventing Injury in Youth (SPIY), on passenger-related risk-taking and injuries, and intentions to intervene in friends’ risky road behavior. SPIY was implemented in Grade 8 Health classes and evaluated using survey and focus group data from 843 students across 10 Australian secondary schools. Intervention students reported less passenger-related risk-taking six months following the program. Their intention to protect friends from underage driving also increased. The results of this study show that a comprehensive, school-based program targeting individual and social changes can increase adolescent passenger safety.