What do we gain from simplicity versus complexity in species distribution models?

Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to explain and predict species ranges and environmental niches. They are most commonly constructed by inferring species' occurrence-environment relationships using statistical and machine-learning methods. The variety of methods that can be used to construct SDMs (e.g. generalized linear/additive models, tree-based models, maximum entropy, etc.), and the variety of ways that such models can be implemented, permits substantial flexibility in SDM complexity. Building models with an appropriate amount of complexity for the study objectives is critical for robust inference. We characterize complexity as the shape of the inferred occurrence-environment relationships and the number of parameters used to describe them, and search for insights into whether additional complexity is informative or superfluous. By building 'under fit' models, having insufficient flexibility to describe observed occurrence-environment relationships, we risk misunderstanding the factors shaping species distributions. By building 'over fit' models, with excessive flexibility, we risk inadvertently ascribing pattern to noise or building opaque models. However, model selection can be challenging, especially when comparing models constructed under different modeling approaches. Here we argue for a more pragmatic approach: researchers should constrain the complexity of their models based on study objective, attributes of the data, and an understanding of how these interact with the underlying biological processes. We discuss guidelines for balancing under fitting with over fitting and consequently how complexity affects decisions made during model building. Although some generalities are possible, our discussion reflects differences in opinions that favor simpler versus more complex models. We conclude that combining insights from both simple and complex SDM building approaches best advances our knowledge of current and future species ranges.

Participation of interleukin-5, interleukin-8 and leukotriene B4 in eosinophil accumulation in two different experimental models

There are several experimental models describing in vivo eosinophil (EO) migration, including ip injection of a large volume of saline (SAL) or Sephadex beads (SEP). The aim of this study was to investigate the mechanisms involved in the EO migration in these two models. Two consecutive injections of SAL given 48 hr apart, induced a selective recruitment of EO into peritoneal cavity of rats, which peaked 48 hr after the last injection. SEP, when injected ip, promoted EO accumulation in rats. The phenomenom was dose-related and peaked 48 hr after SEP injection. To investigate the mediators involved in this process we showed that BW A4C, MK 886 and dexamethasone (DXA) inhibited the EO migration induced by SAL and SEP. To investigate the source of the EO chemotactic factor we showed that mast cells, macrophages (MO), but not lymphocytes, incubated in vitro in presence of SAL released a factor which induced EO migration. With SEP, only mast cells release a factor that induced EO migration, which was inhibited by BW A4C, MK 886 and DXA. Furthermore, the chemotactic activity of SAL-stimulated mast cells was inhibited by antisera against IL-5 and IL-8 (interleukin). SAL-stimulated MO were only inhibited by anti-IL-8 antibodies as well SEP-stimulated mast cells. These results suggest that the EO migration induced by SAL may be dependent on resident mast cells and MO and mediated by LTB4, IL-5 and IL-8. SEP-induced EO migration was dependent on mast cells and may be mediated by LTB4 and IL-8. Furthermore, IL-5 and IL-8 induced EO migration, which was also dependent on resident cells and mediated by LTB4 . In conclusion, EO migration induced by SAL is dependent on mast cells and MO, whereas that induced by SEP is dependent on mast cells alone. Stimulated mast cells release LTB4, IL-5 and IL-8 while MO release LTB4 and IL-8. The IL-5 and IL-8 release by the SAL or SEP-stimulated resident cells may act in an autocrine fashion, thus potentiating LTB4 release.

Role of eosinophilic airway inflammation in models of asthma

Eosinophils play a central role in the establishment and outcome of bronchial inflammation in asthma. Animal models of allergy are useful to answer questions related to mechanisms of allergic inflammation. We have used models of sensitized and boosted guinea pigs to investigate the nature of bronchial inflammation in allergic conditions. These animals develop marked bronchial infiltration composed mainly of CD4+ T-lymphocytes and eosinophils. Further provocation with antigen leads to degranulation of eosinophils and ulceration of the bronchial mucosa. Eosinophils are the first cells to increase in numbers in the mucosa after antigen challenge and depend on the expression of alpha 4 integrin to adhere to the vascular endothelium and transmigrate to the mucosa. Blockage of alpha4 integrin expression with specific antibody prevents not only the transmigration of eosinophils but also the development of bronchial hyperresponsiveness (BHR) to agonists in sensitized and challenged animals, clearly suggesting a role for this cell type in this altered functional state. Moreover, introduction of antibody against Major Basic Protein into the airways also prevents the development of BHR in similar model. BHR can also be suppressed by the use of FK506, an immunosuppressor that reduces in almost 100% the infiltration of eosinophils into the bronchi of allergic animals. These data support the concept that eosinophil is the most important pro-inflammatory factor in bronchial inflammation associated with allergy.

Mixture of bivariate Poisson regression models with an application to insurance

In a recent paper Bermúdez [2009] used bivariate Poisson regression models for ratemaking in car insurance, and included zero-inflated models to account for the excess of zeros and the overdispersion in the data set. In the present paper, we revisit this model in order to consider alternatives. We propose a 2-finite mixture of bivariate Poisson regression models to demonstrate that the overdispersion in the data requires more structure if it is to be taken into account, and that a simple zero-inflated bivariate Poisson model does not suffice. At the same time, we show that a finite mixture of bivariate Poisson regression models embraces zero-inflated bivariate Poisson regression models as a special case. Additionally, we describe a model in which the mixing proportions are dependent on covariates when modelling the way in which each individual belongs to a separate cluster. Finally, an EM algorithm is provided in order to ensure the models’ ease-of-fit. These models are applied to the same automobile insurance claims data set as used in Bermúdez [2009] and it is shown that the modelling of the data set can be improved considerably.

Mycoplasma hominis in mid-trimester amniotic fluid : relation to pregnangy outcome

RESUME Introduction : Les naissances prématurées compliquent 6-10 % des grossesses dans les pays industrialisés et contribuent de façon notable aux taux de mortalité périnatale et de morbidité néonatale. Il a été démontré que la colonisation bactérienne du liquide amniotique joue un rôle dans l'étiologie des accouchements prématurés spontanés et des ruptures prématurées des membranes. Le but de ce travail était d'évaluer la présence de Mycoplasma hominis dans le liquide amniotique prélevé au 2eme trimestre de grossesse chez des patientes asymptomatiques et de déterminer son association avec une issue défavorable de la grossesse. Matériels et méthodes : Les échantillons de liquide amniotique de 456 patientes ayant subi une amniocentèse trans-abdominale entre les 15eme et I7eme semaines de grossesse pour diverses indications ont été testés par PCR (Polymerase Chain Reaction) afin d'identifier Mycoplasma hominis. Les produits ainsi amplifiés étaient ensuite détectés par ELISA (Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay). Les données cliniques étaient obtenues après l'accouchement. Résultats : Mycoplasma hominis a été identifié dans 29 (6,4%) des échantillons de liquide amniotique. Le taux de menace d'accouchement prématuré chez les patientes positives pour Mycoplasma hominis (14,3%) était plus élevé que chez les patientes négatives (3,3 %) (p=0,01). De même, les naissances prématurées spontanées avec membranes intactes étaient plus fréquentes chez les patientes positives (10,7%) que chez les patientes négatives (1,9 %) (p=0,02). Le taux de menace d'accouchement prématuré lors d'une grossesse antérieure était plus de trois fois plus élevé chez les patientes positives, cependant ce résultat n'était pas statistiquement significatif. Finalement, la présence du mycoplasme n'était pas corrélée à la gestose, au retard de croissance intra-utérin ou aux anomalies chromosomiques foetales. Conclusions : Les résultats montrent que la présence de Mycoplasma hominis dans le liquide amniotique prélevé entre les 15eme et I7eme semaines d' aménorrhée chez des patientes asymptomatiques est associée à un taux plus élevé de menace d'accouchement prématuré et de naissances prématurées spontanées. La détection de ce microorganisme au 2eme trimestre de la grossesse peut donc identifier les patientes à risque de menace d'accouchement et de naissance prématurées. Abstract Objective: The relationship between detection of Mycoplasma hominis in mid-trimester amniotic fluid and subsequent pregnancy outcome was investigated. Study design: Amniotic fluids from 456 women of European background who underwent a transabdominal amniocentesis at weeks 15-17 of pregnancy were tested for M. hominis by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). The amplicons were hybridized to an internal probe and detected by ELISA. Pregnancy outcomes and clinical data were subsequently obtained. Results: M. hominis were identified in 29 (6.4%) of the amniotic fluids. The rate of preterm labor in women positive for M. hominis (14.3%) was higher than in the negative women (3.3%) (p = 0.01). Similarly, a spontaneous preterm birth with intact membranes occurred in 10.7% of the M. hominis-posltive women as opposed to only 1.9% of the negative women (p = 0.02). The presence of this mycoplasma was not correlated with fetal chromosomal aberrations, intrauterine growth restriction or preeclampsia. Conclusions: Detection of M. hominis in second-trimester amniotic fluids can identify women at increased risk for subsequent preterm labor and delivery.

Climate-based empirical models show biased predictions of butterfly communities along environmental gradients

A better understanding of the factors that mould ecological community structure is required to accurately predict community composition and to anticipate threats to ecosystems due to global changes. We tested how well stacked climate-based species distribution models (S-SDMs) could predict butterfly communities in a mountain region. It has been suggested that climate is the main force driving butterfly distribution and community structure in mountain environments, and that, as a consequence, climate-based S-SDMs should yield unbiased predictions. In contrast to this expectation, at lower altitudes, climate-based S-SDMs overpredicted butterfly species richness at sites with low plant species richness and underpredicted species richness at sites with high plant species richness. According to two indices of composition accuracy, the Sorensen index and a matching coefficient considering both absences and presences, S-SDMs were more accurate in plant-rich grasslands. Butterflies display strong and often specialised trophic interactions with plants. At lower altitudes, where land use is more intense, considering climate alone without accounting for land use influences on grassland plant richness leads to erroneous predictions of butterfly presences and absences. In contrast, at higher altitudes, where climate is the main force filtering communities, there were fewer differences between observed and predicted butterfly richness. At high altitudes, even if stochastic processes decrease the accuracy of predictions of presence, climate-based S-SDMs are able to better filter out butterfly species that are unable to cope with severe climatic conditions, providing more accurate predictions of absences. Our results suggest that predictions should account for plants in disturbed habitats at lower altitudes but that stochastic processes and heterogeneity at high altitudes may limit prediction success of climate-based S-SDMs.

Stochastic time-concentration activity models for cytotoxicity in 3D brain cell cultures.

BACKGROUND: In vitro aggregating brain cell cultures containing all types of brain cells have been shown to be useful for neurotoxicological investigations. The cultures are used for the detection of nervous system-specific effects of compounds by measuring multiple endpoints, including changes in enzyme activities. Concentration-dependent neurotoxicity is determined at several time points. METHODS: A Markov model was set up to describe the dynamics of brain cell populations exposed to potentially neurotoxic compounds. Brain cells were assumed to be either in a healthy or stressed state, with only stressed cells being susceptible to cell death. Cells may have switched between these states or died with concentration-dependent transition rates. Since cell numbers were not directly measurable, intracellular lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) activity was used as a surrogate. Assuming that changes in cell numbers are proportional to changes in intracellular LDH activity, stochastic enzyme activity models were derived. Maximum likelihood and least squares regression techniques were applied for estimation of the transition rates. Likelihood ratio tests were performed to test hypotheses about the transition rates. Simulation studies were used to investigate the performance of the transition rate estimators and to analyze the error rates of the likelihood ratio tests. The stochastic time-concentration activity model was applied to intracellular LDH activity measurements after 7 and 14 days of continuous exposure to propofol. The model describes transitions from healthy to stressed cells and from stressed cells to death. RESULTS: The model predicted that propofol would affect stressed cells more than healthy cells. Increasing propofol concentration from 10 to 100 μM reduced the mean waiting time for transition to the stressed state by 50%, from 14 to 7 days, whereas the mean duration to cellular death reduced more dramatically from 2.7 days to 6.5 hours. CONCLUSION: The proposed stochastic modeling approach can be used to discriminate between different biological hypotheses regarding the effect of a compound on the transition rates. The effects of different compounds on the transition rate estimates can be quantitatively compared. Data can be extrapolated at late measurement time points to investigate whether costs and time-consuming long-term experiments could possibly be eliminated.

Rapid detection of enterovirus in cerebrospinal fluid by a fully-automated PCR assay is associated with improved management of aseptic meningitis in adult patients.

BACKGROUND: Enterovirus (EV) is the most frequent cause of aseptic meningitis (AM). Lack of microbiological documentation results in unnecessary antimicrobial therapy and hospitalization. OBJECTIVES: To assess the impact of rapid EV detection in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) by a fully-automated PCR (GeneXpert EV assay, GXEA) on the management of AM. STUDY DESIGN: Observational study in adult patients with AM. Three groups were analyzed according to EV documentation in CSF: group A=no PCR or negative PCR (n=17), group B=positive real-time PCR (n=20), and group C=positive GXEA (n=22). Clinical, laboratory and health-care costs data were compared. RESULTS: Clinical characteristics were similar in the 3 groups. Median turn-around time of EV PCR decreased from 60h (IQR (interquartile range) 44-87) in group B to 5h (IQR 4-11) in group C (p<0.0001). Median duration of antibiotics was 1 (IQR 0-6), 1 (0-1.9), and 0.5 days (single dose) in groups A, B, and C, respectively (p<0.001). Median length of hospitalization was 4 days (2.5-7.5), 2 (1-3.7), and 0.5 (0.3-0.7), respectively (p<0.001). Median hospitalization costs were $5458 (2676-6274) in group A, $2796 (2062-5726) in group B, and $921 (765-1230) in group C (p<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Rapid EV detection in CSF by a fully-automated PCR improves management of AM by significantly reducing antibiotic use, hospitalization length and costs.

Morphometric Analysis of McCoy Cells Inoculated with Cerebrospinal Fluid from Patients with Rabies

To demonstrate the potential of McCoy cells for the isolation of rabies virus from the cerebrospinal (CSF) fluid of a patient with a diagnosis of rabies, McCoy cells were inoculated with CSF from a patient with a clinical diagnosis of rabies and investigated in terms of morphometric aspect using the JAVA analysis system for the quantification of the increased size of infected cells compared to noninfected cells. The cells were also examined in terms of specific staining for the diagnosis of rabies by the method of Sellers for the observation of intracytoplasmic inclusions and by specific immunofluorescence staining for rabies virus. Infected cells showed changes in cell permeability and morphologic modifications which differed significantly compared to normal cells (P<0.001) when analyzed by the Mann-Whitney and Kruskal-Wallis tests. Intense activity of the endoplasmic reticulum was also observed, as indicated by the presence of intracytoplasmic inclusions visualized by specific staining. The present study demonstrated the isolation of rabies virus from the CSF of a patient with rabies, showing that McCoy cells can be used for the laboratory diagnosis of patients suspected to have rabies.

A non-possibility theorem for joint-stability in interindustry models

Joint-stability in interindustry models relates to the mutual simultaneous consistency of the demand-driven and supply-driven models of Leontief and Ghosh, respectively. Previous work has claimed joint-stability to be an acceptable assumption from the empirical viewpoint, provided only small changes in exogenous variables are considered. We show in this note, however, that the issue has deeper theoretical roots and offer an analytical demonstration that shows the impossibility of consistency between demand-driven and supply-driven models.

Entrevistant infants pre-escolars víctimes d’abús sexual i/o maltractament familiar : Eficàcia dels models d’entrevista forense

Entrevistant infants pre-escolars víctimes d’abús sexual i/o maltractament familiar: eficàcia dels models d’entrevista forense Entrevistar infants en edat preescolar que han viscut una situació traumàtica és una tasca complexa que dins l’avaluació psicològica forense necessita d’un protocol perfectament delimitat, clar i temporalitzat. Per això, s’han seleccionat 3 protocols d’entrevista: el Protocol de Menors (PM) de Bull i Birch, el model del National Institute for Children Development (NICHD) de Michel Lamb, a partir del qual es va desenvolupar l’EASI (Evaluación del Abuso Sexual Infantojuvenil) i l’Entrevista Cognitiva (EC) de Fisher i Geiselman. La hipòtesi de partida vol comprovar si els anteriors models permeten obtenir volums informatius diferents en infants preescolars. Conseqüentment, els objectius han estat determinar quin dels models d’entrevista permet obtenir un volum informatiu amb més precisions i menys errors, dissenyar un model d’entrevista propi i consensuar aquest model. En el treball s’afegeixen esquemes pràctics que facilitin l’obertura, desenvolupament i tancament de l’entrevista forense. La metodologia ha reproduït el binomi infant - esdeveniment traumàtic, mitjançant la visualització i l’explicació d’un fet emocionalment significatiu amb facilitat per identificar-se: l’accident en bicicleta d’un infant que cau, es fa mal, sagna i el seu pare el cura. A partir d’aquí, hem entrevistat 135 infants de P3, P4 i P5, mitjançant els 3 models d’entrevista referits, enfrontant-los a una demanda específica: recordar i narrar aquest esdeveniment. S’ha conclòs que el nivell de record correcte, quan s’utilitza un model d’entrevista adequat amb els infants en edat preescolar, oscil•la entre el 70-90%, fet que permet defensar la confiança en els records dels infants. Es constata que el percentatge d’emissions incorrectes dels infants en edat preescolar és mínim, al voltant d’un 5-6%. L’estudi remarca la necessitat d’establir perfectament les regles de l’entrevista i, per últim, en destaca la ineficàcia de les tècniques de memòria de l’entrevista cognitiva en els infants de P3 i P4. En els de P5 es comencen a veure beneficis gràcies a la tècnica de la reinstauració contextual (RC), estant les altres tècniques fora de la comprensió i utilització dels infants d’aquestes edats. Interviewing preschoolers victims of sexual abuse and/or domestic abuse: Effectiveness of forensic interviews models 135 preschool children were interviewed with 3 different interview models in order to remember a significant emotional event. Authors conclude that the correct recall of children ranging from 70-90% and the percentage of error messages is 5-6%. It is necessary to fully establish the rules of the interview. The present research highlights the effectiveness of the cognitive interview techniques in children from P3 and P4. Entrevistando niños preescolares víctimas de abuso sexual y/o maltrato familiar: eficacia de los modelos de entrevista forense Se han entrevistado 135 niños preescolares con 3 modelos de entrevista diferentes para recordar un hecho emocionalmente significativo. Se concluye que el recuerdo correcto de los niños oscila entre el 70-90% y el porcentaje de errores de mensajes es del 5-6%. El estudio remarca la necesidad de establecer perfectamente las reglas de la entrevista y se destaca la ineficacia de las técnicas de la entrevista cognitiva en los niños de P3 y P4.

An approximate solution method for boundary layer flow of a power law fluid over a flat plate

The work in this paper deals with the development of momentum and thermal boundary layers when a power law fluid flows over a flat plate. At the plate we impose either constant temperature, constant flux or a Newton cooling condition. The problem is analysed using similarity solutions, integral momentum and energy equations and an approximation technique which is a form of the Heat Balance Integral Method. The fluid properties are assumed to be independent of temperature, hence the momentum equation uncouples from the thermal problem. We first derive the similarity equations for the velocity and present exact solutions for the case where the power law index n = 2. The similarity solutions are used to validate the new approximation method. This new technique is then applied to the thermal boundary layer, where a similarity solution can only be obtained for the case n = 1.

The borehole-fluid effect in electrical resistivity imaging

Fluid that fills boreholes in crosswell electrical resistivity investigations provides the necessary electrical contact between the electrodes and the rock formation but it is also the source of image artifacts in standard inversions that do not account for the effects of the boreholes. The image distortions can be severe for large resistivity contrasts between the rock formation and borehole fluid and for large borehole diameters. We have carried out 3D finite-element modeling using an unstructured-grid approach to quantify the magnitude of borehole effects for different resistivity contrasts, borehole diameters, and electrode configurations. Relatively common resistivity contrasts of 100:1 and borehole diameters of 10 and 20 cm yielded, for a bipole length of 5 m, apparent resistivity underestimates of approximately 12% and 32% when using AB-MN configurations and apparent resistivity overestimates of approximately 24% and 95% when using AM-BN configurations. Effects are generally more severe at shorter bipole spacings. We report the results obtained by either including or ignoring the boreholes in inversions of 3D field data from a test site in Switzerland, where approximately 10,000 crosswell resistivity-tomography measurements were made across six acquisition planes among four boreholes. Inversions of raw data that ignored the boreholes filled with low-resistivity fluid paradoxically produced high-resistivity artifacts around the boreholes. Including correction factors based on the modeling results fora ID model with and without the boreholes did not markedly improve the images. The only satisfactory approach was to use a 3D inversion code that explicitly incorporated the boreholes in the actual inversion. This new approach yielded an electrical resistivity image that was devoid of artifacts around the boreholes and that correlated well with coincident crosswell radar images.