Maximum likelihood estimation of mortality and growth with individual variability from multiple length-frequency data

We consider estimation of mortality rates and growth parameters from length-frequency data of a fish stock and derive the underlying length distribution of the population and the catch when there is individual variability in the von Bertalanffy growth parameter L∞. The model is flexible enough to accommodate 1) any recruitment pattern as a function of both time and length, 2) length-specific selectivity, and 3) varying fishing effort over time. The maximum likelihood method gives consistent estimates, provided the underlying distribution for individual variation in growth is correctly specified. Simulation results indicate that our method is reasonably robust to violations in the assumptions. The method is applied to tiger prawn data (Penaeus semisulcatus) to obtain estimates of natural and fishing mortality.

Análise de critérios para definição da vazão remanescente em usinas hidrelétricas.

Tem crescido a demanda por energia em todo o mundo. No Brasil, com o aquecimento da economia aumentam ainda mais as pressões. O parque gerador Brasileiro é fortemente baseado na geração hidrelétrica, que representa aproximadamente 77,6% da oferta de geração de eletricidade. Entre os impactos ambientais gerados pela construção de barragens e reservatórios de aproveitamentos hidrelétricos está a mudança do regime fluvial de jusante, a chamada vazão remanescente. Entre outros, esta vazão deve garantir as condições adequadas à sobrevivência e continuação das espécies e dos ecossistemas, associando as necessidades humanas, ambientais e as características de cada região. Tomou-se como objeto de análise dois estudos de caso, a pequena central hidrelétrica (PCH) Santa Gabriela, localizada no rio Correntes, na divisa entre os estados de Mato Grosso e Mato Grosso do Sul e a usina hidrelétrica (UHE) Batalha, situada no rio São Marcos, na divisa entre os estados de Minas Gerais e Goiás. Embora o assunto seja discutido amplamente pela comunidade técnica e acadêmica, não há ainda nos marcos legais Brasileiros associados, uma definição explícita de critérios ou limites para estabelecimento da vazão remanescente. Em geral, as legislações estaduais estabelecem valores máximos outorgáveis determinados a partir de percentuais da curva de permanência (Q90, Q95) ou da vazão mínima anual de sete dias de duração e tempo de recorrência de 10 anos Q7,10, garantindo consequentemente as vazões mínimas remanescentes. Essas metodologias implicam num único valor fixo para a vazão ao longo do ano, o que não condiz com a realidade do regime hidrológico natural. Estudos atuais apontam para um hidrograma ecológico, que represente a variação das vazões entre os meses de estiagem e cheia. Assim, a metodologia envolveu a comparação entre critérios de outorga utilizados em alguns estados Q90, Q95 e Q7,10 e métodos citados na literatura para estudo da vazão ecológica (Tennant, Texas, Vazão Base e Perímetro Molhado) e as Resoluções referentes à Declaração de Reserva de Disponibilidade Hídrica (DRDH) das usinas, que especificam a vazão remanescente nas fases de enchimento e operação, emitidas pela Agência Nacional de Águas (ANA). Observaram-se valores de vazões substancialmente diferenciados entre os seis métodos empregados. Cabe destacar, que representa um avanço a publicação do Manual de Estudos de Disponibilidade Hídrica para Aproveitamentos Hidrelétricos (ANA, 2009), que visa à padronização dos documentos para fins obtenção da DRDH e da outorga do uso do potencial de energia hidráulica em corpo de água de domínio da União. Assim, o empreendedor poderá propor e negociar a demanda hídrica para as necessidades ambientais com as autoridades competentes, o que deverá ser discutido em reunião técnica inicial que deverá contar com a participação da Agência Nacional de Energia Elétrica (ANEEL), ANA, órgão ambiental, empreendedor e a empresa responsável pelos estudos ambientais.

Implications of using On-Farm Flood Flow Capture to recharge groundwater and mitigate flood risks along the Kings River, CA

Two large hydrologic issues face the Kings Basin, severe and chronic overdraft of about 0.16M ac-ft annually, and flood risks along the Kings River and the downstream San Joaquin River. Since 1983, these floods have caused over $1B in damage in today’s dollars. Capturing flood flows of sufficient volume could help address these two pressing issues which are relevant to many regions of the Central Valley and will only be exacerbated with climate change. However, the Kings River has high variability associated with flow magnitudes which suggests that standard engineering approaches and acquisition of sufficient acreage through purchase and easements to capture and recharge flood waters would not be cost effective. An alternative approach investigated in this study, termed On-Farm Flood Flow Capture, involved leveraging large areas of private farmland to capture flood flows for both direct and in lieu recharge. This study investigated the technical and logistical feasibility of best management practices (BMPs) associated with On-Farm Flood Flow Capture. The investigation was conducted near Helm, CA, about 20 miles west of Fresno, CA. The experimental design identified a coordinated plan to determine infiltration rates for different soil series and different crops; develop a water budget for water applied throughout the program and estimate direct and in lieu recharge; provide a preliminary assessment of potential water quality impacts; assess logistical issues associated with implementation; and provide an economic summary of the program. At check locations, we measured average infiltration rates of 4.2 in/d for all fields and noted that infiltration rates decreased asymptotically over time to about 2 – 2.5 in/d. Rates did not differ significantly between the different crops and soils tested, but were found to be about an order of magnitude higher in one field. At a 2.5 in/d infiltration rate, 100 acres are required to infiltrate 10 CFS of captured flood flows. Water quality of applied flood flows from the Kings River had concentrations of COC (constituents of concern; i.e. nitrate, electrical conductivity or EC, phosphate, ammonium, total dissolved solids or TDS) one order of magnitude or more lower than for pumped groundwater at Terranova Ranch and similarly for a broader survey of regional groundwater. Applied flood flows flushed the root zone and upper vadose zone of nitrate and salts, leading to much lower EC and nitrate concentrations to a depth of 8 feet when compared to fields in which more limited flood flows were applied or for which drip irrigation with groundwater was the sole water source. In demonstrating this technology on the farm, approximately 3,100 ac-ft was diverted, primarily from April through mid-July, with about 70% towards in lieu and 30% towards direct recharge. Substantial flood flow volumes were applied to alfalfa, wine grapes and pistachio fields. A subset of those fields, primarily wine grapes and pistachios, were used primarily to demonstrate direct recharge. For those fields about 50 – 75% of water applied was calculated going to direct recharge. Data from the check studies suggests more flood flows could have been applied and infiltrated, effectively driving up the amount of water towards direct recharge. Costs to capture flood flows for in lieu and direct recharge for this project were low compared to recharge costs for other nearby systems and in comparison to irrigating with groundwater. Moreover, the potentially high flood capture capacity of this project suggests significant flood avoidance costs savings to downstream communities along the Kings and San Joaquin Rivers. Our analyses for Terranova Ranch suggest that allocating 25% or more flood flow water towards in lieu recharge and the rest toward direct recharge will result in an economically sustainable recharge approach paid through savings from reduced groundwater pumping. Two important issues need further consideration. First, these practices are likely to leach legacy salts and nitrates from the unsaturated zone into groundwater. We develop a conceptual model of EC movement through the unsaturated zone and estimated through mass balance calculations that approximately 10 kilograms per square meter of salts will be flushed into the groundwater through displacing 12 cubic meters per square meter of unsaturated zone pore water. This flux would increase groundwater salinity but an equivalent amount of water added subsequently is predicted as needed to return to current groundwater salinity levels. All subsequent flood flow capture and recharge is expected to further decrease groundwater salinity levels. Second, the project identified important farm-scale logistical issues including irrigator training; developing cropping plans to integrate farming and recharge activities; upgrading conveyance; and quantifying results. Regional logistical issues also exist related to conveyance, integration with agricultural management, economics, required acreage and Operation and Maintenance (O&M).

On-Farm Flood Flow Capture – addressing flood risks and groundwater overdraft in the Kings Basin, with potential applications throughout the Central Valley

Project fact sheet prepared in cooperation with the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service and the Kings River Conservation District.