Linking landscape- and population ecology for large population management modelling: the case of Ibex (capra ibex) in Switzerland

La biologie de la conservation est communément associée à la protection de petites populations menacées d?extinction. Pourtant, il peut également être nécessaire de soumettre à gestion des populations surabondantes ou susceptibles d?une trop grande expansion, dans le but de prévenir les effets néfastes de la surpopulation. Du fait des différences tant quantitatives que qualitatives entre protection des petites populations et contrôle des grandes, il est nécessaire de disposer de modèles et de méthodes distinctes. L?objectif de ce travail a été de développer des modèles prédictifs de la dynamique des grandes populations, ainsi que des logiciels permettant de calculer les paramètres de ces modèles et de tester des scénarios de gestion. Le cas du Bouquetin des Alpes (Capra ibex ibex) - en forte expansion en Suisse depuis sa réintroduction au début du XXème siècle - servit d?exemple. Cette tâche fut accomplie en trois étapes : En premier lieu, un modèle de dynamique locale, spécifique au Bouquetin, fut développé : le modèle sous-jacent - structuré en classes d?âge et de sexe - est basé sur une matrice de Leslie à laquelle ont été ajoutées la densité-dépendance, la stochasticité environnementale et la chasse de régulation. Ce modèle fut implémenté dans un logiciel d?aide à la gestion - nommé SIM-Ibex - permettant la maintenance de données de recensements, l?estimation automatisée des paramètres, ainsi que l?ajustement et la simulation de stratégies de régulation. Mais la dynamique d?une population est influencée non seulement par des facteurs démographiques, mais aussi par la dispersion et la colonisation de nouveaux espaces. Il est donc nécessaire de pouvoir modéliser tant la qualité de l?habitat que les obstacles à la dispersion. Une collection de logiciels - nommée Biomapper - fut donc développée. Son module central est basé sur l?Analyse Factorielle de la Niche Ecologique (ENFA) dont le principe est de calculer des facteurs de marginalité et de spécialisation de la niche écologique à partir de prédicteurs environnementaux et de données d?observation de l?espèce. Tous les modules de Biomapper sont liés aux Systèmes d?Information Géographiques (SIG) ; ils couvrent toutes les opérations d?importation des données, préparation des prédicteurs, ENFA et calcul de la carte de qualité d?habitat, validation et traitement des résultats ; un module permet également de cartographier les barrières et les corridors de dispersion. Le domaine d?application de l?ENFA fut exploré par le biais d?une distribution d?espèce virtuelle. La comparaison à une méthode couramment utilisée pour construire des cartes de qualité d?habitat, le Modèle Linéaire Généralisé (GLM), montra qu?elle était particulièrement adaptée pour les espèces cryptiques ou en cours d?expansion. Les informations sur la démographie et le paysage furent finalement fusionnées en un modèle global. Une approche basée sur un automate cellulaire fut choisie, tant pour satisfaire aux contraintes du réalisme de la modélisation du paysage qu?à celles imposées par les grandes populations : la zone d?étude est modélisée par un pavage de cellules hexagonales, chacune caractérisée par des propriétés - une capacité de soutien et six taux d?imperméabilité quantifiant les échanges entre cellules adjacentes - et une variable, la densité de la population. Cette dernière varie en fonction de la reproduction et de la survie locale, ainsi que de la dispersion, sous l?influence de la densité-dépendance et de la stochasticité. Un logiciel - nommé HexaSpace - fut développé pour accomplir deux fonctions : 1° Calibrer l?automate sur la base de modèles de dynamique (par ex. calculés par SIM-Ibex) et d?une carte de qualité d?habitat (par ex. calculée par Biomapper). 2° Faire tourner des simulations. Il permet d?étudier l?expansion d?une espèce envahisseuse dans un paysage complexe composé de zones de qualité diverses et comportant des obstacles à la dispersion. Ce modèle fut appliqué à l?histoire de la réintroduction du Bouquetin dans les Alpes bernoises (Suisse). SIM-Ibex est actuellement utilisé par les gestionnaires de la faune et par les inspecteurs du gouvernement pour préparer et contrôler les plans de tir. Biomapper a été appliqué à plusieurs espèces (tant végétales qu?animales) à travers le Monde. De même, même si HexaSpace fut initialement conçu pour des espèces animales terrestres, il pourrait aisément être étndu à la propagation de plantes ou à la dispersion d?animaux volants. Ces logiciels étant conçus pour, à partir de données brutes, construire un modèle réaliste complexe, et du fait qu?ils sont dotés d?une interface d?utilisation intuitive, ils sont susceptibles de nombreuses applications en biologie de la conservation. En outre, ces approches peuvent également s?appliquer à des questions théoriques dans les domaines de l?écologie des populations et du paysage.<br/><br/>Conservation biology is commonly associated to small and endangered population protection. Nevertheless, large or potentially large populations may also need human management to prevent negative effects of overpopulation. As there are both qualitative and quantitative differences between small population protection and large population controlling, distinct methods and models are needed. The aim of this work was to develop theoretical models to predict large population dynamics, as well as computer tools to assess the parameters of these models and to test management scenarios. The alpine Ibex (Capra ibex ibex) - which experienced a spectacular increase since its reintroduction in Switzerland at the beginning of the 20th century - was used as paradigm species. This task was achieved in three steps: A local population dynamics model was first developed specifically for Ibex: the underlying age- and sex-structured model is based on a Leslie matrix approach with addition of density-dependence, environmental stochasticity and culling. This model was implemented into a management-support software - named SIM-Ibex - allowing census data maintenance, parameter automated assessment and culling strategies tuning and simulating. However population dynamics is driven not only by demographic factors, but also by dispersal and colonisation of new areas. Habitat suitability and obstacles modelling had therefore to be addressed. Thus, a software package - named Biomapper - was developed. Its central module is based on the Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA) whose principle is to compute niche marginality and specialisation factors from a set of environmental predictors and species presence data. All Biomapper modules are linked to Geographic Information Systems (GIS); they cover all operations of data importation, predictor preparation, ENFA and habitat suitability map computation, results validation and further processing; a module also allows mapping of dispersal barriers and corridors. ENFA application domain was then explored by means of a simulated species distribution. It was compared to a common habitat suitability assessing method, the Generalised Linear Model (GLM), and was proven better suited for spreading or cryptic species. Demography and landscape informations were finally merged into a global model. To cope with landscape realism and technical constraints of large population modelling, a cellular automaton approach was chosen: the study area is modelled by a lattice of hexagonal cells, each one characterised by a few fixed properties - a carrying capacity and six impermeability rates quantifying exchanges between adjacent cells - and one variable, population density. The later varies according to local reproduction/survival and dispersal dynamics, modified by density-dependence and stochasticity. A software - named HexaSpace - was developed, which achieves two functions: 1° Calibrating the automaton on the base of local population dynamics models (e.g., computed by SIM-Ibex) and a habitat suitability map (e.g. computed by Biomapper). 2° Running simulations. It allows studying the spreading of an invading species across a complex landscape made of variously suitable areas and dispersal barriers. This model was applied to the history of Ibex reintroduction in Bernese Alps (Switzerland). SIM-Ibex is now used by governmental wildlife managers to prepare and verify culling plans. Biomapper has been applied to several species (both plants and animals) all around the World. In the same way, whilst HexaSpace was originally designed for terrestrial animal species, it could be easily extended to model plant propagation or flying animals dispersal. As these softwares were designed to proceed from low-level data to build a complex realistic model and as they benefit from an intuitive user-interface, they may have many conservation applications. Moreover, theoretical questions in the fields of population and landscape ecology might also be addressed by these approaches.

Phylogéographie des principales vipères européennes (Vipera ammodytes, V. aspis et V. berus), structuration génétique et multipaternité chez Vipera berus

Résumé: Les vipères du genre Vipera sont des serpents venimeux distribués dans la totalité du Paléarctique. Malgré cette répartition considérable, elles sont extrêmement menacées, leur déclin étant principalement dû à la destruction et à la fragmentation de leur habitat ainsi qu'à la persécution humaine. Afin d'apporter de nouveaux éléments dans le contexte de la protection de ce groupe de reptiles, nous avons utilisé durant ce travail de thèse différents marqueurs moléculaires pour étudier la structuration génétique à petite et à large échelle chez trois espèces appartenant au genre Vipera. La première étude, une phylogéographie moléculaire de la vipère ammodytes (Vipera ammodytes), a montré dans l'ensemble de l'aire de répartition une forte structuration génétique provenant d'isolements antérieures au Pléistocène. La présence d'un nombre important de clades dans le centre des Balkans suggère que cette région a fourni de nombreux refuges isolés durant les glaciations. Ces dernières ont également eu un impact considérable sur la diversité génétique au sein de la majorité des clades, suite à d'importants goulots d'étranglement durant le Pléistocène. L'étude de la phylogéographie de la vipère aspic (Vipera aspis) a montré une différenciation génétique entre les populations présentes de chaque côté des Alpes, mais également une forte structuration interne avec la mise en évidence d'un refuge en France. Cette étude est la première à établir clairement l'utilisation d'un refuge français pour un vertébré terrestre. La troisième partie de cette thèse a étudié la phylogéographie de la vipère péliade (Vipera berus), espèce cible de ce travail. En plus de la mise en évidence d'un groupe génétique inattendu (localisé dans le nord de l'Italie, le sud de l'Autriche, le nord de la Slovénie et l'extrême sud-est de la Suisse), la variabilité génétique au sein du groupe nordique (comprenant les animaux de l'entier de l'aire de répartition de l'espèce à l'exception des individus du groupe italien et les animaux provenant des Balkans) est suffisamment importante pour conclure à l'utilisation de refuges glaciaires nordiques durant les dernières glaciations, en complément des refuges habituellement décrits pour la majorité des espèces animales (soit les péninsules ibérique, italienne et balakanique). Ces résultats nous ont conduit à effectuer une étude morphologique (quatrième partie) comparant les vipères péliades du "clade italien" et du "clade nordique" décrits ci-dessus. Seules de petites différences morphologiques ont pu être mises en évidence, malgré une séparation de ces groupes estimée à plus d'un million d'années. Une étude à plus petite échelle, centrée sur le Massif jurassien et certaines populations alpines et françaises, a été entreprise afin d'estimer leur diversité génétique et d'évaluer la structuration génétique entre les populations à l'aide de marqueurs microsatellites (cinquième partie). Une importante structuration a été observée entre les populations distantes de plus de 3 kilomètres, la structuration entre les populations plus proches étant plus limitée. De plus, une diversité génétique plus faible dans les populations jurassiennes et alpines comparativement aux populations du massif central et de la côte atlantique a été constatée, probablement due à une perte de diversité génétique lors de la recolonisation post-glaciaire. La sixième étude s'est intéressée au succès reproducteur des mâles de vipères péliades en conditions naturelles. Une corrélation entre la taille des mâles et leur succès reproducteur a été relevée, les individus de plus grande taille ayant un succès reproducteur plus élevé. Le taux de multipaternité a aussi été investigué, démontrant que la proportion de pontes issues de plusieurs pères est élevée (69%) malgré la faible densité de vipères observée sur le site étudié. Finalement, aucun lien entre le nombre de pères au sein d'une ponte et la mortalité des jeunes à la naissance n'a pu être mis en évidence, contrastant avec des travaux précédents. En conclusion, l'observation de la structuration très marquée chez les vipères péliades devrait permettre d'affiner les méthodes de protection de l'espèce dans le massif jurassien. A plus large échelle, l'importante structuration génétique observée chez les vipères ammodytes, aspic et péliade résultant de l'utilisation de nombreux refuges glaciaires, complémentaires aux refuges habituellement utilisés par les espèces animales, démontre l'intérêt de l'analyse phylogéographique des reptiles pour la compréhension des phénomènes de colonisation et d' extinction des populations durant la fin du Tertiaire et le Quaternaire. La mise en évidence chez les différentes espèces de vipères étudiées de nombreux groupes génétiques distincts (ESUs) devrait conduire à des modifications de la taxonomie ainsi qu'au statut de protection de ces espèces. Abstract: The vipers of the genus Vipera are venomous snakes widespread throughout the Palaearctic regions. Despite a large distribution area, several species are extremely threatened, especially due to the destruction and fragmentation of their habitats, as well as by human persecution. In order to increase the knowledge on these species and to improve their protection, several molecular markers have been used to investigate the genetic structure on small and large scales, within three species of the genus Vipera. The first study, a molecular phylogeography of the nose-horned viper (Vipera ammodytes), showed a considerable structuring throughout the distribution area, due to isolation into refugia before the Pleistocene. A high number of clades in the centre of the Balkans suggests that this region harboured numerous isolated glacial refugia during the last glaciation. Moreover, low genetic diversity within several clades implies that most populations of nose-horned vipers have suffered bottlenecks during the Pleistocene. The study of the phylogeography of the asp viper (Vipera aspis) showed genetic differentiation between populations on each side of the Alps, as well as considerable internal genetic structure, suggesting the use of a glacial refugium in France. This study is the first to establish firmly the occurrence of a French refugia for a terrestrial vertebrate. The third part of this work involved a phylogeographic study of the adder (Vipera berus), the target species of this thesis. Three clades were revealed: a Balkan clade (corresponding to the subspecies V. b. sachalinensis), an unexpected Italian clade (limited to northern Italy, southern Austria, northern Slovenia and southeasternmost corner of Switzerland) and a Northern clade clade (including adders of the whole distribution area excepted animals from the Balkan and the Italian clades). The genetic variability within the Northern clade is sufficiently high to conclude that a northern glacial refugia during the last glaciation, in addition to those refugia already described for the main species (Iberian, Italian and Balkan peninsula). These results motivated a morphological study (part four) comparing the adders from the Italian and the Northern clades describe above. Only small morphological differences have been found, despite the split between these two clades have taken place more than 1 million years ago. A study on a local scale, focused on the Jura Mountains, on a few populations in the Alps and France was, performed to estimate the genetic diversity and the genetic structure between populations using microsatellite markers (part five). Considerable structure was observed between populations separated by more than 3 kilometres, whereas the structure between closer populations is less marked. Moreover, lower genetic diversity in the populations from Jura Mountains and Alps was noticed compared to populations from Massif Central of Atlantic coast. Such loss of genetic variation probably followed post-glacial recolonisation. The sixth study focused on the reproductive success of male adders in the wild. A positive correlation between body length and reproductive success was observed. Multiple paternity was also observed in most of clutches (69%) despite the low density of adders in the study area. Finally, no relationship was found between the number of fathers in a clutch and the survival of offspring at birth, contradicting previous studies. To conclude, the observation of a significant genetic structure in Vipera berus will enable recommendations to be made to improve protection of this species in the Jura Mountain. On a larger scale, the considerable genetic structure found within Vipera ammdoytes, V. aspis and V. berus, resulting from isolation in additional glacial refugia to those already described for other species, demonstrates the relevance of phylogeographic studies of reptiles to better understand the colonisation and disappearance during the last Tertiary and the Quaternary. The observation of several groups of evolutionary significant units (ESUs) within the three studied species might lead to a revision of the taxonomy, as well as their conservation status.

Competing risks to breast cancer mortality in Catalonia

Background: Breast cancer mortality has experienced important changes over the last century. Breast cancer occurs in the presence of other competing risks which can influence breast cancer incidence and mortality trends. The aim of the present work is: 1) to assess the impact of breast cancer deaths among mortality from all causes in Catalonia (Spain), by age and birth cohort and 2) to estimate the risk of death from other causes than breast cancer, one of the inputs needed to model breast cancer mortality reduction due to screening or therapeutic interventions. Methods: The multi-decrement life table methodology was used. First, all-cause mortality probabilities were obtained by age and cohort. Then mortality probability for breast cancer was subtracted from the all-cause mortality probabilities to obtain cohort life tables for causes other than breast cancer. These life tables, on one hand, provide an estimate of the risk of dying from competing risks, and on the other hand, permit to assess the impact of breast cancer deaths on all-cause mortality using the ratio of the probability of death for causes other than breast cancer by the all-cause probability of death. Results: There was an increasing impact of breast cancer on mortality in the first part of the 20th century, with a peak for cohorts born in 1945–54 in the 40–49 age groups (for which approximately 24% of mortality was due to breast cancer). Even though for cohorts born after 1955 there was only information for women under 50, it is also important to note that the impact of breast cancer on all-cause mortality decreased for those cohorts. Conclusion: We have quantified the effect of removing breast cancer mortality in different age groups and birth cohorts. Our results are consistent with US findings. We also have obtained an estimate of the risk of dying from competing-causes mortality, which will be used in the assessment of the effect of mammography screening on breast cancer mortality in Catalonia.

Effectiveness of early detection on breast cancer mortality reduction in Catalonia (Spain)

Background: At present, it is complicated to use screening trials to determine the optimal age intervals and periodicities of breast cancer early detection. Mathematical models are an alternative that has been widely used. The aim of this study was to estimate the effect of different breast cancer early detection strategies in Catalonia (Spain), in terms of breast cancer mortality reduction (MR) and years of life gained (YLG), using the stochastic models developed by Lee and Zelen (LZ). Methods: We used the LZ model to estimate the cumulative probability of death for a cohort exposed to different screening strategies after T years of follow-up. We also obtained the cumulative probability of death for a cohort with no screening. These probabilities were used to estimate the possible breast cancer MR and YLG by age, period and cohort of birth. The inputs of the model were: incidence of, mortality from and survival after breast cancer, mortality from other causes, distribution of breast cancer stages at diagnosis and sensitivity of mammography. The outputs were relative breast cancer MR and YLG. Results: Relative breast cancer MR varied from 20% for biennial exams in the 50 to 69 age interval to 30% for annual exams in the 40 to 74 age interval. When strategies differ in periodicity but not in the age interval of exams, biennial screening achieved almost 80% of the annual screening MR. In contrast to MR, the effect on YLG of extending screening from 69 to 74 years of age was smaller than the effect of extending the screening from 50 to 45 or 40 years. Conclusion: In this study we have obtained a measure of the effect of breast cancer screening in terms of mortality and years of life gained. The Lee and Zelen mathematical models have been very useful for assessing the impact of different modalities of early detection on MR and YLG in Catalonia (Spain).

A melting pot world of species : reply to Speziale et al.

Native plants and animals are a natural heritage threatened by one of the six greatest extinction events in Earth's history. Humans, through habitat transformation, exploitation, and species introductions, are driving this extinction event. To turn this tide, Speziale et al. (2014) suggest reducing human dependence on non-native species by increasing the use, harvest, planting, and raising of native species, thereby increasing their cultural and economic value. The search for new or under-appreciated uses of native species is laudable, especially if it helps protect them and contributes to local cultural diversity. Such efforts are arguably an inherent trait of human curiosity and entrepreneurship and are a central platform of popular movements such as slow foods and native gardening. However, Speziale et al.'s hypothesis - that using native species can protect them - is less simple than they suggest. We refute the idea of nativism that underpins Speziale et al.'s proposal and makes it poorly defensible and considered the unaddressed consequences of the proposal for people and for conservation.

Electrical pump & probe and injected carrier losses quantification in Er doped Si slot waveguides

Electrically driven Er3+ doped Si slot waveguides emitting at 1530 nm are demonstrated. Two different Er3+ doped active layers were fabricated in the slot region: a pure SiO2 and a Si-rich oxide. Pulsed polarization driving of the waveguides was used to characterize the time response of the electroluminescence (EL) and of the signal probe transmission in 1 mm long waveguides. Injected carrier absorption losses modulate the EL signal and, since the carrier lifetime is much smaller than that of Er3+ ions, a sharp EL peak was observed when the polarization was switched off. A time-resolved electrical pump & probe measurement in combination with lock-in amplifier techniques allowed to quantify the injected carrier absorption losses. We found an extinction ratio of 6 dB, passive propagation losses of about 4 dB/mm, and a spectral bandwidth > 25 nm at an effective d.c. power consumption of 120 μW. All these performances suggest the usage of these devices as electro-optical modulators.

Data-division-specific robustness and power of randomization tests for ABAB designs

This study deals with the statistical properties of a randomization test applied to an ABAB design in cases where the desirable random assignment of the points of change in phase is not possible. In order to obtain information about each possible data division we carried out a conditional Monte Carlo simulation with 100,000 samples for each systematically chosen triplet. Robustness and power are studied under several experimental conditions: different autocorrelation levels and different effect sizes, as well as different phase lengths determined by the points of change. Type I error rates were distorted by the presence of autocorrelation for the majority of data divisions. Satisfactory Type II error rates were obtained only for large treatment effects. The relationship between the lengths of the four phases appeared to be an important factor for the robustness and the power of the randomization test.

Adjusting fracture probability by trabecular bone score.

The aim of the present study was to determine the impact of trabecular bone score on the probability of fracture above that provided by the clinical risk factors utilized in FRAX. We performed a retrospective cohort study of 33,352 women aged 40-99 years from the province of Manitoba, Canada, with baseline measurements of lumbar spine trabecular bone score (TBS) and FRAX risk variables. The analysis was cohort-specific rather than based on the Canadian version of FRAX. The associations between trabecular bone score, the FRAX risk factors and the risk of fracture or death were examined using an extension of the Poisson regression model and used to calculate 10-year probabilities of fracture with and without TBS and to derive an algorithm to adjust fracture probability to take account of the independent contribution of TBS to fracture and mortality risk. During a mean follow-up of 4.7 years, 1754 women died and 1639 sustained one or more major osteoporotic fractures excluding hip fracture and 306 women sustained one or more hip fracture. When fully adjusted for FRAX risk variables, TBS remained a statistically significant predictor of major osteoporotic fractures excluding hip fracture (HR/SD 1.18, 95 % CI 1.12-1.24), death (HR/SD 1.20, 95 % CI 1.14-1.26) and hip fracture (HR/SD 1.23, 95 % CI 1.09-1.38). Models adjusting major osteoporotic fracture and hip fracture probability were derived, accounting for age and trabecular bone score with death considered as a competing event. Lumbar spine texture analysis using TBS is a risk factor for osteoporotic fracture and a risk factor for death. The predictive ability of TBS is independent of FRAX clinical risk factors and femoral neck BMD. Adjustment of fracture probability to take account of the independent contribution of TBS to fracture and mortality risk requires validation in independent cohorts.

All-sky search algorithms for monochromatic signals in bar gravitational wave detector data

In this paper we design and develop several filtering strategies for the analysis of data generated by a resonant bar gravitational wave (GW) antenna, with the goal of assessing the presence (or absence) therein of long-duration monochromatic GW signals, as well as the eventual amplitude and frequency of the signals, within the sensitivity band of the detector. Such signals are most likely generated in the fast rotation of slightly asymmetric spinning stars. We develop practical procedures, together with a study of their statistical properties, which will provide us with useful information on the performance of each technique. The selection of candidate events will then be established according to threshold-crossing probabilities, based on the Neyman-Pearson criterion. In particular, it will be shown that our approach, based on phase estimation, presents a better signal-to-noise ratio than does pure spectral analysis, the most common approach.

ASTRAL-R score predicts non-recanalisation after intravenous thrombolysis in acute ischaemic stroke.

Intravenous thrombolysis (IVT) as treatment in acute ischaemic strokes may be insufficient to achieve recanalisation in certain patients. Predicting probability of non-recanalisation after IVT may have the potential to influence patient selection to more aggressive management strategies. We aimed at deriving and internally validating a predictive score for post-thrombolytic non-recanalisation, using clinical and radiological variables. In thrombolysis registries from four Swiss academic stroke centres (Lausanne, Bern, Basel and Geneva), patients were selected with large arterial occlusion on acute imaging and with repeated arterial assessment at 24 hours. Based on a logistic regression analysis, an integer-based score for each covariate of the fitted multivariate model was generated. Performance of integer-based predictive model was assessed by bootstrapping available data and cross validation (delete-d method). In 599 thrombolysed strokes, five variables were identified as independent predictors of absence of recanalisation: Acute glucose > 7 mmol/l (A), significant extracranial vessel STenosis (ST), decreased Range of visual fields (R), large Arterial occlusion (A) and decreased Level of consciousness (L). All variables were weighted 1, except for (L) which obtained 2 points based on β-coefficients on the logistic scale. ASTRAL-R scores 0, 3 and 6 corresponded to non-recanalisation probabilities of 18, 44 and 74 % respectively. Predictive ability showed AUC of 0.66 (95 %CI, 0.61-0.70) when using bootstrap and 0.66 (0.63-0.68) when using delete-d cross validation. In conclusion, the 5-item ASTRAL-R score moderately predicts non-recanalisation at 24 hours in thrombolysed ischaemic strokes. If its performance can be confirmed by external validation and its clinical usefulness can be proven, the score may influence patient selection for more aggressive revascularisation strategies in routine clinical practice.

Multidimensional Deprivation in Contemporary Switzerland Across Social Groups and Time

We have investigated the phenomenon of deprivation in contemporary Switzerland through the adoption of a multidimensional, dynamic approach. By applying Self Organizing Maps (SOM) to a set of 33 non-monetary indicators from the 2009 wave of the Swiss Household Panel (SHP), we identified 13 prototypical forms (or clusters) of well-being, financial vulnerability, psycho-physiological fragility and deprivation within a topological dimensional space. Then new data from the previous waves (2003 to 2008) were classified by the SOM model, making it possible to estimate the weight of the different clusters in time and reconstruct the dynamics of stability and mobility of individuals within the map. Looking at the transition probabilities between year t and year t+1, we observed that the paths of mobility which catalyze the largest number of observations are those connecting clusters that are adjacent on the topological space.

Forecasting a language shift based on cellular automata

Language extinction as a consequence of language shifts is a widespread social phenomenon that affects several million people all over the world today. An important task for social sciences research should therefore be to gain an understanding of language shifts, especially as a way of forecasting the extinction or survival of threatened languages, i.e., determining whether or not the subordinate language will survive in communities with a dominant and a subordinate language. In general, modeling is usually a very difficult task in the social sciences, particularly when it comes to forecasting the values of variables. However, the cellular automata theory can help us overcome this traditional difficulty. The purpose of this article is to investigate language shifts in the speech behavior of individuals using the methodology of the cellular automata theory. The findings on the dynamics of social impacts in the field of social psychology and the empirical data from language surveys on the use of Catalan in Valencia allowed us to define a cellular automaton and carry out a set of simulations using that automaton. The simulation results highlighted the key factors in the progression or reversal of a language shift and the use of these factors allowed us to forecast the future of a threatened language in a bilingual community.

Utilisation of Short Term Electricity Derivatives in Industrial Energy Management

Työn päätavoite on selvittää kuinka erityisesti sähkön markkinahinnan ennustamiseen ja johdannaismarkkinoiden tietämykseen perustuva lyhyen tähtäimen sähköjohdannaisten hyödyntäminen tapahtuu teollisessa energianhallinnassa. Tätä aihetta lähestytään luomalla prosessi lyhyen tähtäimen sähköjohdannaisten hyödyntämiselle. Prosessi esitellään ja selvitetään aina lähtökohdista todelliseen kaupankäyntiin asti erillisen esimerkkitehtaan avulla.Lyhyen tähtäimen sähköjohdannaisten hyödyntäminen teollisessa energianhallinnassa perustuu pääosin tulevaisuuden odotuksiin sähkön markkinahinnan kehittymisestä sekä tehtaiden operatiiviseen tilanteeseen. Operatiiviseen tilanteeseen perustuva lyhyen tähtäimen sähköjohdannaisten kaupankäynti on pääasiassa pitkän tähtäimen suojausten sopeuttamista lyhyelle tähtäimelle sopivaksi.Hinnan ennustamisella on suuri rooli lyhyen tähtäimen sähköjohdannaisten hyödyntämisprosessissa. Työssä esitelty hinnan ennustamismalli on sopiva päivä- ja viikkotason Nord Poolin Elspot -systeemihinnan ennustamiseen. Elspot -systeemihinnan ennustamismalli on suunniteltu käytännönläheiseksi ja sen perustana ovat todelliset fysikaaliset ja mitattavat suureet. Futuurimarkkinatietämys on tarpeen lyhyen tähtäimen johdannaisia käytettäessä. Työssä tutkitaan yleisiä markkinoiden odotuksia ja futuurimarkkinoiden tietoisuuden kehittymistä koskien tulevaa vallitsevaa tilannetta. Työssä luodaan myös työkalu, mikä auttaa kaupan laatijaa muodostamaan suuntaa-antavat todennäköisyydet eri hintanäkemyksille ja paikallistamaan mahdolliset markkinoiden epätodennäköiset hintaodotukset.Kokemukset Elspot -systeemihinnan ennustamismallin soveltamisesta ovat lupaavia. Lisäksi havainnot futuurimarkkinoiden käyttäytymisestä Nord Poolissa ja muodostettu työkalu suuntaa-antavien todennäköisyyksien selvittämiseksi auttavat kaupan laatijaa päätöksenteossa. Lyhyen tähtäimen sähköjohdannaisten hyödyntäminen teollisessa energianhallinnassa on periaatteessa mahdollista esitellyn prosessin avulla, vaikka täydellinen käyttöönotto vaatisi vielä joitakin järjestelyjä. Keskittymällä tilanteisiin jotka työssä kuvatulla prosessilla ovat hoidettavissa, työssä määritellyllä menettelyllä on mahdollisuudet saavuttaa epäedullisen hintakehityksen riskin väheneminen ja parempi taloudellinen tulos teollisen energianhallinnan sähkökaupankäynnissä.

Using species richness and functional traits predictions to constrain assemblage predictions from stacked species distribution models

Aim: Modelling species at the assemblage level is required to make effective forecast of global change impacts on diversity and ecosystem functioning. Community predictions may be achieved using macroecological properties of communities (MEM), or by stacking of individual species distribution models (S-SDMs). To obtain more realistic predictions of species assemblages, the SESAM framework suggests applying successive filters to the initial species source pool, by combining different modelling approaches and rules. Here we provide a first test of this framework in mountain grassland communities. Location: The western Swiss Alps. Methods: Two implementations of the SESAM framework were tested: a "Probability ranking" rule based on species richness predictions and rough probabilities from SDMs, and a "Trait range" rule that uses the predicted upper and lower bound of community-level distribution of three different functional traits (vegetative height, specific leaf area and seed mass) to constraint a pool of environmentally filtered species from binary SDMs predictions. Results: We showed that all independent constraints expectedly contributed to reduce species richness overprediction. Only the "Probability ranking" rule allowed slightly but significantly improving predictions of community composition. Main conclusion: We tested various ways to implement the SESAM framework by integrating macroecological constraints into S-SDM predictions, and report one that is able to improve compositional predictions. We discuss possible improvements, such as further improving the causality and precision of environmental predictors, using other assembly rules and testing other types of ecological or functional constraints.

COMPASS identifies T-cell subsets correlated with clinical outcomes.

Advances in flow cytometry and other single-cell technologies have enabled high-dimensional, high-throughput measurements of individual cells as well as the interrogation of cell population heterogeneity. However, in many instances, computational tools to analyze the wealth of data generated by these technologies are lacking. Here, we present a computational framework for unbiased combinatorial polyfunctionality analysis of antigen-specific T-cell subsets (COMPASS). COMPASS uses a Bayesian hierarchical framework to model all observed cell subsets and select those most likely to have antigen-specific responses. Cell-subset responses are quantified by posterior probabilities, and human subject-level responses are quantified by two summary statistics that describe the quality of an individual's polyfunctional response and can be correlated directly with clinical outcome. Using three clinical data sets of cytokine production, we demonstrate how COMPASS improves characterization of antigen-specific T cells and reveals cellular 'correlates of protection/immunity' in the RV144 HIV vaccine efficacy trial that are missed by other methods. COMPASS is available as open-source software.