Estimação do risco de morte de recém-nascidos utilizando logica fuzzy tipo-2 intervalar

The main objective of the presented study is the development of a predictive interval type-2 fuzzy inference system in order to estimate the mortality risk for a newborn, to be used as an auxiliary tool for decision making in medical centers where there is a lack of professionals for this purpose and, afterwards, to compare its performance to a type-1 fuzzy system. The input variables were chosen due to their acquisition ‘simplicity, not involving any invasive tests, such as blood tests or other specific tests. The variables are easily obtained in the first few minutes of life: birth weight, gestational age at delivery, 5-minute Apgar score and previous report of stillbirth. Databases from the DATASUS were used to validate the model. 1351 records from the city of São José dos Campos, a mid-sized city in the São Paulo state’s countryside, were considered in this study. Finally, an analysis using the ROC curve was performed to estimate the model’s accuracy

Modelagem matemática aplicada a precificação de opções

The mathematical models are critical to determine theoretical prices of options and analyze whether they are overrated or underrated. This information strongly influence in operations carried out by the investor. Therefore, it is necessary that the employee model present high degree of reliability and be consistent with the reality of investment to which it is intended. In this sense, this dissertation aims to apply the steps of mathematical modeling in the Pricing of options for decision making in the investment of a hydroelectric power plant. Was used a Monte Carlo simulation, with the Latin Hypercube Method, to determine the volatility of returns of the project. In order to validate the proposed model, compared to the results found by the Binomial Model, which is one of the models most used in this type of investment. The results reinforce the hypothesis that the mathematical modeling with the Binomial Model is critical to investment decision-making in hydroelectric power

Seleção de fornecedores em uma indústria de transformadores utilizando o método de análise hierárquica

The optimal supply chain management (SCM) is considered by the companies a new frontier in order to gain efficiently competitive advantage. Through the SCM companies must define their competitive strategies by positioning inside the supply chain wich belongs both as suppliers and as consumers. The main objectives of SCM is integrate multiple suppliers to satisfy the market demand and make possible the synergies between the parts of the supply chain in order to better serve the consumer Meanwhile, selection, evaluation and development of suppliers play important roles in establishing an efficient supply chain. Thus, the SCM covers elements such as manufacturing, assembly, raw materials, and distribution to the final consumer. Due to the factors described, the focus of this paper is to present the Analytic Hierarchical Process (AHP) application as an appropriate and structured method for the supplier selection of a strategic line of low voltage transformers of a transformers industry and compare it with the selection process currently used by this industry, showing the advantages of applying a multiple criteria decision making method. In this study, the research methodology used was modeling and simulation

Gestão dos Recursos Hídricos na Sub-Bacia do Avanhandava

Este artigo descreve os trabalhos executados junto à região da sub-bacia crítica do Avanhandava e parte da Bacia Hidrográfica do Turvo Grande. Um conjunto de dados foi coletado in loco, por meio do trabalho de campo e desenvolvido um sistema computacional com recursos georreferenciados de apoio à gestão dos recursos hídricos. Como produto da interação entre o sistema computacional e o trabalho de campo, foi possível traçar a realidade atual de uso dos recursos hídricos e dar subsídios mais precisos para a tomada de decisão com relação às ações preventivas e de recuperação das regiões críticas, além do monitoramento constante e em tempo real.

Aplicação do AHP em um caso de escolha dos modais de transporte para a movimentação das partes de um aerogerador

Wind power is a type of energy that is still not too explored in Brazil and, because of the lack of experience in projects of this size, there are still some problems during the stages of planning and execution of wind farms projects. One of these problems is related with the parts’ transportation logistics, since these parts are difficult to transport, because of their length, weight or shape. Furthermore, another aggravating factor is the lack of options regarding to the transportation modals that are available to do the route between the manufacture place and the project site. To help in the decision-making process about the ideal transportation configuration, aiming to reduce the dependence of the logistics’ coordinator, it was chosen to use he AHP method to compare some criteria that have influence in the modal’s choice process. The criteria, determined by the members of the company’s logistics’ department, are: transportation costs, transportation time and the risk of causing damages to the cargo. The results shown by this model, using theoretical background, that standardize the processes related to the modal’s choice

Estimação do número de internações por doenças respiratórias utilizando lógica fuzzy tipo-2 intervalar

In this work was developed a fuzzy computational model type-2 predictive interval, using the software of the type-2 fuzzy MATLAB toolbox, the final idea is to estimate the number of hospitalizations of patients with respiratory diseases. The interest in the creation of this model is to assist in decision makeshift hospital environment, where there are no medical or professional equipment available to provide the care that the population need. It began working with the study of fuzzy logic, the fuzzy inference system and fuzzy toolbox. Through a real database provided by the Departamento de Informática do Sistema Único de Saúde (DATASUS) and Companhia de Tecnologia de Saneamento Básico (CETESB), was possible to start the model. The analyzed database is composed of the number of patients admitted with respiratory diseases a day for the public hospital in São José dos Campos, during the year 2009 and by factors such as PM10, SO2, wind and humidity. These factors were analyzed as input variables and, through these, is possible to get the number of admissions a day, which is the output variable of the model. For data analysis we used the fuzzy control method type-2 Mamdani. In the following steps the performance developed in this work was compared with the performance of the same model using fuzzy logic type-1. Finally, the validity of the models was estimated by the ROC curve

Modelo de avaliação de impacto ambiental utilizando a teoria dos conjuntos fuzzy: um estudo de caso para a indústria automobilística

Pós-graduação em Ciências Ambientais - Sorocaba

Modelagem espacial de áreas de recarga subterrânea em região de afloramento do sistema aquífero guarani (sag), em Brotas/SP

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Irrigação e Drenagem) - FCA

Mudanças no uso e cobertura da terra na bacia hidrográfica do Ribeirão Bonito, municípios de Avaré e Itatinga-SP

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Construção de um sistema de gestão de materiais - MRP - Integrado ao Jogo de Empresas Mercado Virtual

Pós-graduação em Engenharia de Produção - FEB

O impacto da adesão aos diferentes níveis de Governança Corporativa para o desempenho econômico e financeiro de um segmento de empresas

The importance of the capital market to Brazilian economic development, linked to the the fragility of a theoretical framework on the issue, case for developing this research. The agents operating in the capital market seek security and confidence for decision making on their investment in that sense we seek to address the concept and values of Corporate Governance to pay in the Brazilian capital market. The Corporate Governance, in its essence, is the system by which companies are directed and monitored, involving the relationship between shareholders and the board of companies, as well as a set of mechanisms and factors intended to minimize market failures. Seeking to confirm adherence to a more advanced system of corporate governance can result in a favorable financial performance, companies were investigated operating in the financial sector (intermediation, various services and insurance), listed by BM&FBOVESPA. The stock market ranks the corporate governance systems in three levels: Level 1 (rudimentary), Level 2 (intermediate) and New Market Level (advanced). To earn the impact of different levels of Corporate Governance for the outcome of the selected companies were calculated and analyzed accounting ratios of profitability, capital structure and liquidity from the Standardized Financial Statements (DFP), base year 2011, 2012 and 2013

Sistemas de informação governamental para monitoramento e avaliação das políticas públicas: quadro de desafios e perspectivas de avanços

Governament organizations has as challenge for their governance the requirement ro improve evaluation system that measure the acting of their mediations and profefer for society informations about achievements. The text analyze the challenges and advances of evaluation tools for produce guidelines that could be inserted at context of decision-making from public agents. Thereunto informations must be reliable and real-time, creating vectors of haste for modernization of informational capacity of State as a whole.

Modelo de mensuração orçamentária dos custos de produção para uma indústria de manufatura de madeira

The companies who produce goods and services taking of the demanding of the customers correctly use the management of the production. The verification of the costs decisive becomes. This article presents a model of measurement of the results of production for the elaborated budgetary planning for an industry of wooden manufacture. This research intends to evidence the importance of the planning and the budget. It presents main given the necessary ones to the budgetary methods, which are used by the company as instruments of control of the planning, providing the concentration of the efforts of the managers in the point-key, minimizing the tension in the process of decision taking.

Avaliação das alterações dentárias e esqueléticas induzidas pelo uso do aparelho de Herbst no tratamento da classe II na dentadura mista: Revisão sistemática

Objective: evaluate the immediate dental and skeletal changes induced by the Herbst appliance on early treatment of Angle´s Class II malocclusion. Material and Method: several electronic databases such as Scopus, Pub Med, Medline, Cochrane Library, Lilacs and Scielo were searched. The abstracts that fullfilled the selection criteria were selected and those that did not provide enough information about these criteria were selected but the final decision of including them or not on the research, was taken after the complete reading of the article. The selection criteria were: clinical studies with Class II individuals, both male and female, with initial age of 7 to 10 years, treated with the Herbst appliance that analysed the dental and/or skeletal changes evaluated on lateral cephalometric radiographs; researches where the treatment performed did not involve extractions or surgical interventions; studies that included patients without syndromes or health concerns and articles published in English or Portuguese. Results and Conclusions: five articles were selected. The articles showed that significant changes happened in the mandibular sagittal lenght, on facial convexity angle, on maxillo-mandibular relationship, on retroclination of the upper incisors and on distal movement of the upper molars, on proclination of the lower incisors and on extrusion of the lower molars. The appliance exerted a limited effect on the anterior relocation of the maxillary complex and on facial heights. However, more studies about the performance of the Herbst appliance on early treatment of Class II are needed.

Responsabilidade do profissional da saúde no esclarecimento equivocado do paciente para obter o seu consentimento livre e esclarecido

Ao paciente é necessário fornecer esclarecimentos sobre as possibilidades terapêuticas, apresentando os riscos, benefícios, prognóstico e custos de cada alternativa possível e indicada. Esta é uma determinação ética e jurídica. Não obstante, o profissional da saúde detém o conhecimento clínico/técnico/científico, e determina quais informações serão (ou não) fornecidas. O paciente decide submeter-se a um tratamento, fornecendo o seu Consentimento Livre e Esclarecido com base nos dados a ele apresentados. Infelizmente, pode ocorrer de alguns profissionais não fornecerem todas as informações necessárias a uma tomada de decisão esclarecida ou, depois de obtido o consentimento do paciente, apresentarem-lhe informação que cause sua desistência do tratamento inicialmente aceito. Esta última informação, se pertinente, e não se tratando de fato superveniente, deveria ter sido fornecida inicialmente. Porém, a informação pode não ser de todo verdadeira, e levar o paciente a decidir baseado, por exemplo, em riscos apresentados e mensurados de forma equivocada. A reabilitação crânio-facial da Articulação Têmporo-Mandibular (ATM), por meio de prótese de ATM, é indicada em muitas situações. Amiúde, pacientes que necessitam de tais próteses apresentam problemas funcionais e estéticos; a expectativa gerada com a reabilitação é grande. Este trabalho apresenta um caso e discute questões éticas e legais, incluindo a responsabilidade civil, do fornecimento parcial e inadequado de esclarecimentos a um paciente.