What is the value of value-at-risk after all?: A conditional approach using quantile regressions

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Erros de medicação num serviço de internamento hospitalar : estudo de prevalência

RESUMO - Os erros de medicação (EM) são uma das principais causas de eventos adversos, estimando-se serem as causas não relacionados com procedimentos cirúrgicos mais frequentes. Estes podem ser classificados por erros latentes ou erros ativos. Objetivos Definiram-se como principais objetivos deste estudo, determinar a prevalência de EM ativos num internamento hospitalar evitados e não evitados, nos momentos da prescrição escrita, transcrição, distribuição e administração, bem como a sua relação com algumas variáveis, como o Grupo farmacológico, Via de administração, Especialidade médica do prescritor e Área médica do médico responsável pelo episódio de internamento (MREI). Metodologia O estudo foi do tipo observacional descritivo de abordagem quantitativa, transversal com recrutamento prospetivo. Foi utilizado um instrumento de observação (check-list) para o registo de todos os EM e das variáveis em cada fase. Resultados Foram observadas 513 unidades amostrais com uma prevalência de 98,2% de EM, num total de 1655 erros dos quais 75% foram evitados. Nas variáveis Grupo farmacológico e Área médica do MREI não foram encontradas relações estatísticas relevantes. Obteve-se um OR=1,97 [1,18;3,27] para medicamentos orais quando comparados aos endovenosos nos erros de prescrição (EP) e um OR=7 [2,77;17,71] quando comparados com os endovenosos na transcrição dos Serviços Farmacêuticos (TSF). A anestesiologia apresentou um OR=0,41 [0,27;0,63] nos EP comparativamente às outras especialidades. Do total de EM observaram-se 30% de erros de prescrição (EP), 20% de erros na transcrição do internamento, 36% de erros na TSF, 2% de erros na distribuição e 12% de erros na administração. Os erros mais prevalentes foram a identificação do prescritor ilegível (16%) e a identificação do doente omissa na TSF (16%). Conclusão Apesar da elevada prevalência de EM observados, a maioria dos erros foram corrigidos e não chegaram ao doente. Tendo em conta os EM observados, a utilização de meios informáticos e o aumento da adesão dos enfermeiros ao procedimento de identificação dos doentes poderão permitir a redução do número de EM em cerca de 80%, reduzindo também a probabilidade de ocorrência de eventos adversos relacionados com os erros ativos na utilização de medicamentos.

Improvements in the geocoding process in organizational environments

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Informática

Valuation of marine and coastal ecosystems: The role of ecological-economic modeling

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Quality of process modeling using BPMN: a model-driven approach

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Informática

Dissecting gastrointestinal dysfunction and inflammation in a “pre-motor” rodent model of Parkinson’s disease

Research on Parkinson’s disease (PD) has mainly focused on the degeneration of the dopaminergic neurons of nigro-striatal (NS) pathway; also, post-mortem studies have demonstrated that the noradrenergic and the serotonergic transmitter systems are also affected (Jellinger, 1999). Degeneration of these neuronal cell bodies is generally thought to start prior to the loss of dopaminergic neurons in the NS pathway and precedes the appearance of the motor symptoms that are the “hallmark” of PD. Gastrointestinal (GI) motility is often disturbed in PD, manifesting chiefly as impaired gastric emptying and constipation. These GI dysfunction symptoms may be the result of a loss in noradrenergic and serotonergic innervation. GI deficits were evaluated using an organ bath technique. Groups treated with different combinations of neurotoxins (6-OHDA alone, 6-OHDA + pCA or 6-OHDA + DSP-4) presented significant differences in gut contractility compared to control groups. Since a substantial body of literature suggests the presence of an inflammatory process in parkinsonian state (Whitton, 2007), changes in pro-inflammatory cytokines in the gut were assessed using a cytokine microarray. It has been found in this work that groups with a combined dopaminergic and noradrenergic lesion have a significant increase in both expressions of IL-13 and VEGF. IL-6 also shows a decrease in treatment groups; however this decrease did not reach statistical significance. The therapeutic value of Exendin-4 (EX-4) was evaluated. It has been previously demonstrated that EX-4, a glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor (GLP-1R) agonist, is neuroprotective in rodent models of PD (Harkavyi et al., 2008). In this thesis it has been found that EX-4 was able to reverse a decrease in gut contractility obtained through intracerebral bilateral 6-OHDA injection. Although more studies are required, EX-4 could be used as a possible therapy for the GI symptoms prominent in the early stages of PD.

Essays on bounded rationality: Individual decision and strategic interaction

Economics is a social science which, therefore, focuses on people and on the decisions they make, be it in an individual context, or in group situations. It studies human choices, in face of needs to be fulfilled, and a limited amount of resources to fulfill them. For a long time, there was a convergence between the normative and positive views of human behavior, in that the ideal and predicted decisions of agents in economic models were entangled in one single concept. That is, it was assumed that the best that could be done in each situation was exactly the choice that would prevail. Or, at least, that the facts that economics needed to explain could be understood in the light of models in which individual agents act as if they are able to make ideal decisions. However, in the last decades, the complexity of the environment in which economic decisions are made and the limits on the ability of agents to deal with it have been recognized, and incorporated into models of decision making in what came to be known as the bounded rationality paradigm. This was triggered by the incapacity of the unboundedly rationality paradigm to explain observed phenomena and behavior. This thesis contributes to the literature in three different ways. Chapter 1 is a survey on bounded rationality, which gathers and organizes the contributions to the field since Simon (1955) first recognized the necessity to account for the limits on human rationality. The focus of the survey is on theoretical work rather than the experimental literature which presents evidence of actual behavior that differs from what classic rationality predicts. The general framework is as follows. Given a set of exogenous variables, the economic agent needs to choose an element from the choice set that is avail- able to him, in order to optimize the expected value of an objective function (assuming his preferences are representable by such a function). If this problem is too complex for the agent to deal with, one or more of its elements is simplified. Each bounded rationality theory is categorized according to the most relevant element it simplifes. Chapter 2 proposes a novel theory of bounded rationality. Much in the same fashion as Conlisk (1980) and Gabaix (2014), we assume that thinking is costly in the sense that agents have to pay a cost for performing mental operations. In our model, if they choose not to think, such cost is avoided, but they are left with a single alternative, labeled the default choice. We exemplify the idea with a very simple model of consumer choice and identify the concept of isofin curves, i.e., sets of default choices which generate the same utility net of thinking cost. Then, we apply the idea to a linear symmetric Cournot duopoly, in which the default choice can be interpreted as the most natural quantity to be produced in the market. We find that, as the thinking cost increases, the number of firms thinking in equilibrium decreases. More interestingly, for intermediate levels of thinking cost, an equilibrium in which one of the firms chooses the default quantity and the other best responds to it exists, generating asymmetric choices in a symmetric model. Our model is able to explain well-known regularities identified in the Cournot experimental literature, such as the adoption of different strategies by players (Huck et al. , 1999), the inter temporal rigidity of choices (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003) and the dispersion of quantities in the context of di cult decision making (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003). Chapter 3 applies a model of bounded rationality in a game-theoretic set- ting to the well-known turnout paradox in large elections, pivotal probabilities vanish very quickly and no one should vote, in sharp contrast with the ob- served high levels of turnout. Inspired by the concept of rhizomatic thinking, introduced by Bravo-Furtado & Côrte-Real (2009a), we assume that each per- son is self-delusional in the sense that, when making a decision, she believes that a fraction of the people who support the same party decides alike, even if no communication is established between them. This kind of belief simplifies the decision of the agent, as it reduces the number of players he believes to be playing against { it is thus a bounded rationality approach. Studying a two-party first-past-the-post election with a continuum of self-delusional agents, we show that the turnout rate is positive in all the possible equilibria, and that it can be as high as 100%. The game displays multiple equilibria, at least one of which entails a victory of the bigger party. The smaller one may also win, provided its relative size is not too small; more self-delusional voters in the minority party decreases this threshold size. Our model is able to explain some empirical facts, such as the possibility that a close election leads to low turnout (Geys, 2006), a lower margin of victory when turnout is higher (Geys, 2006) and high turnout rates favoring the minority (Bernhagen & Marsh, 1997).

Reinvigorating and redesigning early intervention in psychosis services for young people in Auckland

RESUMO: Auckland tem sido pioneira na implementação de modelos de Intervenção Precoce em Psicose. No entanto, esta organização do serviço não mudou nos últimos 19 anos. Segundo os dados obtidos da utilização do serviço, no período de 1996 -2012 foram atendidos 997 doentes, que tinham um número médio de 89 contactos (IQR: 36-184), com uma duração média de 62 horas de contactos (IQR: 24-136). Estes doentes passaram um número médio de 338 dias (IQR: 93-757) em contacto com o programa. 517 doentes (52%) não necessitaram de internamento no hospital, e os que foram internados, ficaram uma mediana de 124 dias no hospital (IQR: 40-380). Os doentes asiáticos tiveram um aumento de 50% de probabilidade de serem internados no hospital. Este relatório inclui 15 recomendações para orientar as reformas para o serviço e, nomeadamente, delinear a importância de uma visão organizacional e dos seus componentes-chave. As recomendações incluem o reforço da gestão e da liderança numa estrutura de equipe mais integrada, com recursos dedicados a melhorar a consciencialização da comunidade, a educação e deteção precoce, bem como a capacidade de receber referenciações diretas. Os Indicadores Chave de Desempenho devem ser estabelecidos, mas os Exames de Estado Mental em risco, devem ser removidos. Auckland deve manter a faixa etária alvo atual. A duração do serviço deve ser aumentada para um mínimo de três anos, com a opção de aumentá-la para cinco anos. A proporção de gestor de cuidados para os doentes deve ser preconizada em 1:15, enquanto o pessoal de apoio não-clínico deve ser aumentado. Os psiquiatras devem ter uma carga de trabalho de cerca de 80 doentes por equivalente de tempo completo. Um serviço local de prestação de cuidados deve ser desenvolvido com, nomeadamente, intervenções culturais para responder às necessidades da população multicultural de Auckland. A capacidade de investigação deve ser incorporada no Serviço de Intervenção Precoce em Psicoses. Qualquer alteração deverá envolver contacto com todas as partes interessadas, e a Administração Regional de Saúde deve comprometer-se em tempo, recursos humanos e políticos para apoiar e facilitar a mudança do sistema, investindo de forma significativa para melhor servir a comunidade Auckland.----------------------------------- ABSTRACT: Auckland has been pioneering in the adoption of Early Intervention in Psychosis models but the design of the service has not changed in 19 years. In service utilisation data from 997 patients seen from 1996 -2012, patients had a median number of 89 contacts (IQR: 36-184), with a median duration of 62 hours of contact (IQR: 24-136). Patients spent a median number of 338 days (IQR: 93-757) in contact with the program. 517 patients (52%) did not require admission to hospital, and those who did spent a median of 124 days in hospital (IQR: 40-380). Asian patients had a 50% increased chance of being admitted to hospital. This report includes 15 recommendations to guide reforms to the service, including outlining the importance of vision and key components. It recommends strengthened managerial leadership and a more integrated team structure with dedicated resources for improved community awareness, education and early detection as well as the capacity to take direct referrals. Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) should be established but At Risk Mental States should be excluded. Auckland should maintain the current target age range. The duration of service should be increased to a minimum of three years, with the option to extend this to five years. The ratio of care co-ordinator to patients should be capped at 1:15 whilst non-clinical supporting staff should be increased. Psychiatrists should have a caseload of about 80 per FTE. A local Service Delivery framework should be developed, as should cultural interventions to meet the needs of the multicultural population of Auckland. Research capacity should be incorporated into the fabric of Early Intervention in Psychosis Services. Any changes should involve consultation with all stakeholders, and the DHB should commit to investing time, human and political resources to support and facilitate meaningful system change to best serve the Auckland community.

Modelling integral viscoelastic flows in OpenFOAM

[Excerpt] A large number of constitutive equations were developed for viscoelastic fluids, some empirical and other with strong physical foundations. The currently available macroscopic constitutive equations can be divided in two main types: differential and integral. Some of the constitutive equations, e.g. Maxwell are available both in differential and integral types. However, relevant in tegral models, like K - BKZ, just possesses the integral form. (...)

Searches for heavy long-lived charged particles with the ATLAS detector in proton--proton collisions at s√ = 8 TeV

Searches for heavy long-lived charged particles are performed using a data sample of 19.8 fb−1 from proton--proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of s√ = 8 TeV collected by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. No excess is observed above the estimated background and limits are placed on the mass of long-lived particles in various supersymmetric models. Long-lived tau sleptons in models with gauge-mediated symmetry breaking are excluded up to masses between 440 and 385 GeV for tan(beta) between 10 and 50, with a 290 GeV limit in the case where only direct tau slepton production is considered. In the context of simplified LeptoSUSY models, where sleptons are stable and have a mass of 300 GeV, squark and gluino masses are excluded up to a mass of 1500 and 1360 GeV, respectively. Directly produced charginos, in simplified models where they are nearly degenerate to the lightest neutralino, are excluded up to a mass of 620 GeV. R-hadrons, composites containing a gluino, bottom squark or top squark, are excluded up to a mass of 1270, 845 and 900 GeV, respectively, using the full detector; and up to a mass of 1260, 835 and 870 GeV using an approach disregarding information from the muon spectrometer.

Global warming in Amazonia: impacts and Mitigation

Global warming has potentially catastrophic impacts in Amazonia, while at the same time maintenance of the Amazon forest offers one of the most valuable and cost-effective options for mitigating climate change. We know that the El Niño phenomenon, caused by temperature oscillations of surface water in the Pacific, has serious impacts in Amazonia, causing droughts and forest fires (as in 1997-1998). Temperature oscillations in the Atlantic also provoke severe droughts (as in 2005). We also know that Amazonian trees die both from fires and from water stress under hot, dry conditions. In addition, water recycled through the forest provides rainfall that maintains climatic conditions appropriate for tropical forest, especially in the dry season. What we need to know quickly, through intensified research, includes progress in representing El Niño and the Atlantic oscillations in climatic models, representation of biotic feedbacks in models used for decision-making about global warming, and narrowing the range of estimating climate sensitivity to reduce uncertainty about the probability of very severe impacts. Items that need to be negotiated include the definition of "dangerous" climate change, with the corresponding maximum levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Mitigation of global warming must include maintaining the Amazon forest, which has benefits for combating global warming from two separate roles: cutting the flow the emissions of carbon each year from the rapid pace of deforestation, and avoiding emission of the stock of carbon in the remaining forest that can be released by various ways, including climate change itself. Barriers to rewarding forest maintenance include the need for financial rewards for both of these roles. Other needs are for continued reduction of uncertainty regarding emissions and deforestation processes, as well as agreement on the basis of carbon accounting. As one of the countries most subject to impacts of climate change, Brazil must assume the leadership in fighting global warming.

Narrative innovations predict symptom improvement: Studying innovative moments in narrative therapy of depression

Objective:Innovative moments (IMs) are moments in the therapeutic dialog that constitute exceptions toward the client's problems. These narrative markers of meaning transformation are associated with change in different models of therapy and diverse diagnoses. Our goal is to test if IMs precede symptoms change, or, on the contrary, are a mere consequence of symptomatic 15 change. Method: For this purpose, IMs and symptomatology (Outcome Questionnaire-10.2) were assessed at every session in a sample of 10 cases of narrative therapy for depression. Hierarchical linear modeling was conducted to explore whether (i) IMs in a given session predict patients' symptoms in the following session and/or (ii) symptoms in a given session predict IMs in the next session. Results: Results suggested that IMs are better predictors of symptoms than the reverse. Conclusions: These results are discussed considering the contribution of meanings and narrative processes' changes to symptomatic improvement.

A search for t(t)over-bar resonances using lepton-plus-jets events in proton-proton collisions at root s=8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search for new particles that decay into top quark pairs is reported. The search is performed with the ATLAS experiment at the LHC using an integrated luminosity of 20.3 fb−1 of proton-proton collision data collected at a centre-of-mass energy of s√=8 TeV. The lepton-plus-jets final state is used, where the top pair decays to W+bW−b¯¯, with one W boson decaying leptonically and the other hadronically. The invariant mass spectrum of top quark pairs is examined for local excesses or deficits that are inconsistent with the Standard Model predictions. No evidence for a top quark pair resonance is found, and 95% confidence-level limits on the production rate are determined for massive states in benchmark models. The upper limits on the cross-section times branching ratio of a narrow Z′ boson decaying to top pairs range from 4.2 pb to 0.03 pb for resonance masses from 0.4 TeV to 3.0 TeV. A narrow leptophobic topcolour Z′ boson with mass below 1.8 TeV is excluded. Upper limits are set on the cross-section times branching ratio for a broad colour-octet resonance with Γ/m = 15% decaying to tt¯. These range from 4.8 pb to 0.03 pb for masses from 0.4 TeV to 3.0 TeV. A Kaluza-Klein excitation of the gluon in a Randall-Sundrum model is excluded for masses below 2.2 TeV.

Erratum: Erratum: Alcohol-aminosilicate hybrid coatings for corrosion protection of galvanized steel in mortar

Artigo completo publicado na revista "Journal of The Electrochemical Society" 161:6 (2014) C349-C362 e disponível no RepositóriUM em: http://hdl.handle.net/1822/33784. Errata disponível no RepositóriUM em: http://hdl.handle.net/1822/40064. (Publisher’s note: An erratum that addressed the errors in Figure 9 was originally published on Dec. 10, 2014, however the graphs in that erratum were not correct.)

Searching for therapeutic strategies in a mouse modelo of Machado-Joseph disease: targeting proteostases

Tese de Doutoramento em Ciências da Saúde