Long-Wave Dynamics of Sea Level Variations during Indian Ocean Dipole Events

Long-wave dynamics of the interannual variations of the equatorial Indian Ocean circulation are studied using an ocean general circulation model forced by the assimilated surface winds and heat flux of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The simulation has reproduced the sea level anomalies of the Ocean Topography Experiment (TOPEX)/Poseidon altimeter observations well. The equatorial Kelvin and Rossby waves decomposed from the model simulation show that western boundary reflections provide important negative feedbacks to the evolution of the upwelling currents off the Java coast during Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) events. Two downwelling Kelvin wave pulses are generated at the western boundary during IOD events: the first is reflected from the equatorial Rossby waves and the second from the off-equatorial Rossby waves in the southern Indian Ocean. The upwelling in the eastern basin during the 1997-98 IOD event is weakened by the first Kelvin wave pulse and terminated by the second. In comparison, the upwelling during the 1994 IOD event is terminated by the first Kelvin wave pulse because the southeasterly winds off the Java coast are weak at the end of 1994. The atmospheric intraseasonal forcing, which plays an important role in inducing Java upwelling during the early stage of an IOD event, is found to play a minor role in terminating the upwelling off the Java coast because the intraseasonal winds are either weak or absent during the IOD mature phase. The equatorial wave analyses suggest that the upwelling off the Java coast during IOD events is terminated primarily by western boundary reflections.

A quasi-synoptic interpretation of water mass distribution and circulation in the western North Pacific II: Circulation

Using the data of conductivity-temperature-depth (CTD) intensive observations conducted during Oct.-Nov. 2005, this study provides the first three-dimension quasi-synoptic description of the circulation in the western North Pacific. Several novel phenomena are revealed, especially in the deep ocean where earlier observations were very sparse. During the observations, the North Equatorial Current (NEC) splits at about 12A degrees N near the sea surface. This bifurcation shifts northward with depth, reaching about 20A degrees N at 1 000 m, and then remains nearly unchanged to as deep as 2 000 m. The Luzon Undercurrent (LUC), emerging below the Kuroshio from about 21A degrees N, intensifies southward, with its upper boundary surfacing around 12A degrees N. From there, part of the LUC separates from the coast, while the rest continues southward to join the Mindanao Current (MC). The MC extends to 2 000 m near the coast, and appears to be closely related to the subsurface cyclonic eddies which overlap low-salinity water from the North Pacific. The Mindanao Undercurrent (MUC), carrying waters from the South Pacific, shifts eastward upon approaching the Mindanao coast and eventually becomes part of the eastward undercurrent between 10A degrees N and 12A degrees N at 130A degrees E. In the upper 2 000 dbar, the total westward transport across 130A degrees E between 7.5A degrees N and 18A degrees N reaches 65.4 Sv (1 Sv = 10(-6) m(3)s(-1)), the northward transport across 18A degrees N from Luzon coast to 130A degrees E is up to 35.0 Sv, and the southward transport across 7.5A degrees N from Mindanao coast to 130A degrees E is 27.9 Sv.

A quasi-synoptic interpretation of water mass distribution and circulation in the western North Pacific: I. Water mass distribution

With high-resolution conductivity-temperature-depth (CTD) observations conducted in Oct.-Nov. 2005, this study provides a detailed quasi-synoptic description of the North Pacific Tropic Water (NPTW), North Pacific Intermediate Water (NPIW) and Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) in the western North Pacific. Some novel features are found. NPTW enters the western ocean with highest-salinity core off shore at 15 degrees-18 degrees N, and then splits to flow northward and southward along the western boundary. Its salinity decreases and density increases outside the core region. NPIW spreads westward north of 15 degrees N with lowest salinity off shore at 21 degrees N, but mainly hugs the Mindanao coast south of 12 degrees N. It shoals and thins toward the south, with salinity increasing and density decreasing. AAIW extends to higher latitude off shore than that in shore, and it is traced as a salinity minimum to only 10 degrees N at 130 degrees E. Most of the South Pacific waters turn northeastward rather than directly flow northward upon reaching to the Mindanao coast, indicating the eastward shift of the Mindanao Undercurrent (MUC).

Dynamics of nonlinear error growth and season-dependent predictability of El Nino events in the Zebiak-Cane model

With the intermediate-complexity Zebiak-Cane model, we investigate the 'spring predictability barrier' (SPB) problem for El Nino events by tracing the evolution of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP), where CNOP is superimposed on the El Nino events and acts as the initial error with the biggest negative effect on the El Nino prediction. We show that the evolution of CNOP-type errors has obvious seasonal dependence and yields a significant SPB, with the most severe occurring in predictions made before the boreal spring in the growth phase of El Nino. The CNOP-type errors can be classified into two types: one possessing a sea-surface-temperature anomaly pattern with negative anomalies in the equatorial central-western Pacific, positive anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific, and a thermocline depth anomaly pattern with positive anomalies along the Equator, and another with patterns almost opposite to those of the former type. In predictions through the spring in the growth phase of El Nino, the initial error with the worst effect on the prediction tends to be the latter type of CNOP error, whereas in predictions through the spring in the decaying phase, the initial error with the biggest negative effect on the prediction is inclined to be the former type of CNOP error. Although the linear singular vector (LSV)-type errors also have patterns similar to the CNOP-type errors, they cover a more localized area than the CNOP-type errors and cause a much smaller prediction error, yielding a less significant SPB. Random errors in the initial conditions are also superimposed on El Nino events to investigate the SPB. We find that, whenever the predictions start, the random errors neither exhibit an obvious season-dependent evolution nor yield a large prediction error, and thus may not be responsible for the SPB phenomenon for El Nino events. These results suggest that the occurrence of the SPB is closely related to particular initial error patterns. The two kinds of CNOP-type error are most likely to cause a significant SPB. They have opposite signs and, consequently, opposite growth behaviours, a result which may demonstrate two dynamical mechanisms of error growth related to SPB: in one case, the errors grow in a manner similar to El Nino; in the other, the errors develop with a tendency opposite to El Nino. The two types of CNOP error may be most likely to provide the information regarding the 'sensitive area' of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictions. If these types of initial error exist in realistic ENSO predictions and if a target method or a data assimilation approach can filter them, the ENSO forecast skill may be improved. Copyright (C) 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Variations in the eastern Indian Ocean warm pool and its relation to the dipole in the tropical Indian Ocean

Based on the monthly average SST and 850 hPa monthly average wind data, the seasonal, interannual and long-term variations in the eastern Indian Ocean warm pool (EIWP) and its relationship to the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and its response to the wind over the Indian Ocean are analyzed in this study. The results show that the distribution range, boundary and area of the EIWP exhibited obviously seasonal and interannual variations associated with the ENSO cycles. Further analysis suggests that the EIWP had obvious long-term trend in its bound edge and area, which indicated the EIWP migrated westwards by about 14 longitudes for its west edge, southwards by about 5 latitudes for its south edge and increased by 3.52x10(6) km(2) for its area, respectively, from 1950 to 2002. The correlation and composite analyses show that the anomalous westward and northward displacements of the EIWP caused by the easterly wind anomaly and the southerly wind anomaly over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean played an important and direct role in the formation of the IOD.

El Nino phenomenon in simple ocean data assimilation data

To study how the air and sea interact with each other during El Nino/La Nina onsets, extended associate pattern analysis (EAPA) is adopted with the simple ocean data assimilation (SODA) data. The results show that as El Nino/La Nina's parents their behaviors are quite different, there does not exist a relatively independent tropical atmosphere but does exist a relatively independent tropical Pacific Ocean because the air is heated from the bottom surface instead of the top surface and of much stronger baroclinic instability than the sea and has a very large inter-tropical convergence zone covering the most tropical Pacific Ocean. The idea that it is the wester burst and wind convergence, coming from middle latitudes directly that produce the seawater eastward movement and meridional convergence in the upper levels and result in the typical El Nino sea surface temperature warm signal is confirmed again.

Circulation in the western tropical Pacific Ocean and its seasonal variation

An assimilation data set based on the GFDL MOM3 model and the NODC XBT data set is used to examine the circulation in the western tropical Pacific and its seasonal variations. The assimilated and observed velocities and transports of the mean circulation agree well. Transports of the North Equatorial Current (NEC), Mindanao Current (MC), North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC) west of 140degreesE and Kuroshio origin estimated with the assimilation data display the seasonal cycles, roughly strong in boreal spring and weak in autumn, with a little phase difference. The NECC transport also has a semi-annual fluctuation resulting from the phase lag between seasonal cycles of two tropical gyres' recirculations. Strong in summer during the southeast monsoon period, the seasonal cycle of the Indonesian throughflow (ITF) is somewhat different from those of its upstreams, the MC and New Guinea Coastal Current (NGCC), implying the monsoon's impact on it.

On the western boundary currents in the Philippine Sea

In this study we describe the velocity structure and transport of the North Equatorial Current (NEC), the Kuroshio, and the Mindanao Current (MC) using repeated hydrographic sections near the Philippine coast. A most striking feature of the current system in the region is the undercurrent structure below the surface flow. Both the Luzon Undercurrent and the Mindanao Undercurrent appear to be permanent phenomena. The present data set also provides an estimate of the mean circulation diagram (relative to 1500 dbar) that involves a NEC transport of 41 Sverdrups (Sv), a Kuroshio transport of 14 Sv, and a MC transport of 27 Sv, inducing a mass balance better than 1 Sv within the region enclosed by stations. The circulation diagram is insensitive to vertical displacements of the reference level within the depth range between 1500 and 2500 dbar. Transport fluctuations are, in general, consistent with earlier observations; that is, the NEC and the Kuroshio vary in the same phase with a seasonal signal superimposed with interannual variations, and the transport of the MC is dominated by a quasi-biennial oscillation. Dynamic height distributions are also examined to explore the dynamics of the current system.

Ship-board measurements and estimations of air-sea fluxes in the western tropical Pacific during TOGA COARE

Direct air-sea flux measurements were made on RN Kexue #1 at 40 degrees S, 156 degrees E during the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) Coupled Ocean-Atmospheric Response Experiment (COARE) Intensive Observation Period (IOP). An array of six accelerometers was used to measure the motion of the anchored ship, and a sonic anemometer and Lyman-alpha hygrometer were used to measure the turbulent wind vector and specific humidity. The contamination of the turbulent wind components by ship motion was largely removed by an improvement of a procedure due to Shao based on the acceleration signals. The scheme of the wind correction for ship motion is briefly outlined. Results are presented from data for the best wind direction relative to the ship to minimize flow distortion effects. Both the time series and the power spectra of the sonic-measured wind components show swell-induced ship motion contamination, which is largely removed by the accelerometer correction scheme, There was less contamination in the longitudinal wind component than in the vertical and transverse components. The spectral characteristics of the surface-layer turbulence properties are compared with those from previous land and ocean results, Momentum and latent heat fluxes were calculated by eddy correlation and compared to those estimated by the inertial dissipation method and the TOGA COARE bulk formula. The estimations of wind stress determined by eddy correlation are smaller than those from the TOGA COARE bulk formula, especially for higher wind speeds, while those from the bulk formula and inertial dissipation technique are generally in agreement. The estimations of latent heal flux from the three different methods are in reasonable agreement. The effect of the correction for ship motion on latent heat fluxes is not as large as on momentum fluxes.

Intraseasonal variability of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature during boreal winter: Madden-Julian Oscillation versus submonthly forcing and processes

[ 1] Intraseasonal variability of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) during boreal winter is investigated by analyzing available data and a suite of solutions to an ocean general circulation model for 1998 - 2004. This period covers the QuikSCAT and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observations. Impacts of the 30 - 90 day and 10 - 30 day atmospheric intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) are examined separately, with the former dominated by the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the latter dominated by convectively coupled Rossby and Kelvin waves. The maximum variation of intraseasonal SST occurs at 10 degrees S - 2 degrees S in the wintertime Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), where the mixed layer is thin and intraseasonal wind speed reaches its maximum. The observed maximum warming ( cooling) averaged over ( 60 degrees E - 85 degrees E, 10 degrees S - 3 degrees S) is 1.13 degrees C ( - 0.97 degrees C) for the period of interest, with a standard deviation of 0.39 degrees C in winter. This SST change is forced predominantly by the MJO. While the MJO causes a basin-wide cooling ( warming) in the ITCZ region, submonthly ISOs cause a more complex SST structure that propagates southwestward in the western-central basin and southeastward in the eastern ocean. On both the MJO and submonthly timescales, winds are the deterministic factor for the SST variability. Short-wave radiation generally plays a secondary role, and effects of precipitation are negligible. The dominant role of winds results roughly equally from wind speed and stress forcing. Wind speed affects SST by altering turbulent heat fluxes and entrainment cooling. Wind stress affects SST via several local and remote oceanic processes.

Eddy generation and evolution in the North Pacific Subtropical Countercurrent (NPSC) zone

The seasonal generation and evolution of eddies in the region of the North Pacific Subtropical Countercurrent remain poorly understood due to the scarcity of available data. We used TOPEX/POSEIDON altimetry data from 1992 to 2007 to study the eddy field in this zone. We found that velocity shear between this region and the neighboring North Equatorial Current contributes greatly to the eddy generation. Furthermore, the eddy kinetic energy level (EKE) shows an annual cycle, maximum in April/May and minimum in December/January. Analyses of the temporal and spatial distributions of the eddy field revealed clearly that the velocity shear closely related to baroclinic instability processes. The eddy field seems to be more zonal than meridional, and the energy containing length scale shows a surprising lag of 2-3 months in comparison with the 1-D and 2-D EKE level. A similar phenomenon is observed in individual eddies in this zone. The results show that in this eddy field band, the velocity shear may drive the EKE level change so that the eddy field takes another 2-3 months to grow and interact to reach a relatively stable state. This explains the seasonal evolution of identifiable eddies.

Variation in joint mode of the tropical Indian-Pacific Ocean thermodynamic anomaly

Previous research has defined the index of the Indian-Pacific thermodynamic anomaly joint mode (IPTAJM) and suggested that the winter IPTAJM has an important impact on summer rainfall over China. However, the possible causes for the interannual and decadal variability of the IPTAJM are still unclear. Therefore, this work investigates zonal displacements of both the western Pacific warm pool (WPWP) and the eastern Indian Ocean warm pool (EIOWP). The relationships between the WPWP and the EIOWP and the IPTAJM are each examined, and then the impacts of the zonal wind anomalies over the equatorial Pacific and Indian Oceans on the IPTAJM are studied. The WPWP eastern edge anomaly displays significant interannual and decadal variability and experienced a regime shift in about 1976 and 1998, whereas the EIOWP western edge exhibits only distinct interannual variability. The decadal variability of the IPTAJM may be mainly caused by both the zonal migration of the WPWP and the 850 hPa zonal wind anomaly over the central equatorial Pacific. On the other hand, the zonal migrations of both the WPWP and the EIOWP and the zonal wind anomalies over the central equatorial Pacific and the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean may be all responsible for the interannual variability of the IPTAJM.

Mixed-layer water oscillations in tropical Pacific for ENSO cycle

The main modes of interannal variabilities of thermocline and sea surface wind stress in the tropical Pacific and their interactions are investigated, which show the following results. (1) The thermocline anomalies in the tropical Pacific have a zonal dipole pattern with 160 W as its axis and a meridional seesaw pattern with 6-8 degrees N as its transverse axis. The meridional oscillation has a phase lag of about 90 to the zonal oscillation, both oscillations get together to form the El Nino/La Nina cycle, which behaves as a mixed layer water oscillates anticlockwise within the tropical Pacific basin between equator and 12 degrees N. (2) There are two main patterns of wind stress anomalies in the tropical Pacific, of which the first component caused by trade wind anomaly is characterized by the zonal wind stress anomalies and its corresponding divergences field in the equatorial Pacific, and the abnormal cross- equatorial flow wind stress and its corresponding divergence field, which has a sign opposite to that of the equatorial region, in the off-equator of the tropical North Pacific, and the second component represents the wind stress anomalies and corresponding divergences caused by the ITCZ anomaly. (3) The trade winds anomaly plays a decisive role in the strength and phase transition of the ENSO cycle, which results in the sea level tilting, provides an initial potential energy to the mixed layer water oscillation, and causes the opposite thermocline displacement between the west side and east side of the equator and also between the equator and 12 degrees N of the North Pacific basin, therefore determines the amplitude and route for ENSO cycle. The ITCZ anomaly has some effects on the phase transition. (4) The thermal anomaly of the tropical western Pacific causes the wind stress anomaly and extends eastward along the equator accompanied with the mixed layer water oscillation in the equatorial Pacific, which causes the trade winds anomaly and produces the anomalous wind stress and the corresponding divergence in favor to conduce the oscillation, which in turn intensifies the oscillation. The coupled system of ocean-atmosphere interactions and the inertia gravity of the mixed layer water oscillation provide together a phase-switching mechanism and interannual memory for the ENSO cycle. In conclusion, the ENSO cycle essentially is an inertial oscillation of the mixed layer water induced by both the trade winds anomaly and the coupled ocean-atmosphere interaction in the tropical Pacific basin between the equator and 12 degrees N. When the force produced by the coupled ocean-atmosphere interaction is larger than or equal to the resistance caused by the mixed layer water oscillation, the oscillation will be stronger or maintain as it is, while when the force is less than the resistance, the oscillation will be weaker, even break.

太平洋西部边界及边界流对赤道暖水库形成和演化的影响

A model of equatorial ocean is used to study the roles of the Pacific western boundary and the Mindanao Current (MC) in the evolution of the equatorial warm pool. The model consists of the single baroclinic mode of a two-layer ocean, with the parameterization of the anomalous increment of the interface representing the SST difference from its long-term-space-mean. The ocean is driven by a wind path in the middle ocean with a real or an artificial geometry assigned at the western and eastern boundaries. In order to test the role of the MC, the western boundary current is introduced into the model by a boundary condition at a position, real and unreal, respectively. The model experiments show that the warm pool, which is insensitive to the longitudinal width of the wind band in middle ocean, results mainly from the accumulation o the eastly-drifted warm water in the equatorial western Pacific. It is the dominant factor for the formation of the warm pool that, at a very low latitude, the Papua New Guinea coast intersects the longitudinally lined Philippine Islands at an obtuse angle. In contrast, the western Atlantic boundary, which inclines poleward from the equator at some 135 degrees, could guide the warm water there moving to a higher latitude. On the other hand, the equatorial warm pool in the western equatorial Pacific is very sensitive to the assignment of th Mindanao Current at 7.5°N and displaces southward, with a stronger southern branch than the northern one. We attribute this asymmetry to the combined effect of the western boundary and the MC upon the equatorial warm away from the equator. A by-product of our solutions is the possible mechanism of the "secondary warm pool" in the eastern Pacific north of the equator. It is suggested that, mainly or partly, the "secondary warm pool" results from the cooperation of the southeast monsoon in eastern Pacific and the eastern boundary hindering the propagation of the Kelvin wave poleward alongshore.

用氟里昴（freon）示踪棉兰老（Mindanao）岛以东海域海洋环流

菲律宾群岛以东的西太平洋赤道和热带海域以存在活跃和复杂的近表面环流而著称。北赤道流（North equatorial current）由东向西不断强化，当到达菲律宾群岛沿岸时，由于受菲律宾群岛的阻挡和β效应，海水在西边界堆积，在西边界形成两支强的西边界流，一支向北形成黑潮（Kuroshio current），一支向南形成棉兰老流（Mindanao current）。这两支西边界流对太平洋的热量重新分配将起着重要的作用。南下的棉兰老流到达棉兰老岛东南海域时，一部分成为印度尼西亚贯穿流（Indonesian throughflow），大部分转向东和苏拉威西海出来的海水及南赤道流（South equatorial current）越过赤道流进入这海域的海水混合，成为北赤道逆流（North equatorial countercurrent）。从1990年10月获得的水文资料算出本航次东边这条断面的纬向地转流断面图，可以看出，1990年晚秋北赤道汉分布在8°N以北的海域，强度最大的流集中在8～9°N之间相对狭窄的地带。而在76号站（3.41°N，128.76°N）到45号站（7.50°N，129.99°N）这条断面上，北赤道逆流分布在3°N～8°N之间，而强度最大流集中在靠近印度尼西亚的摩尔泰岛的南段，另从本航次获得的棉兰老岛以东海域-100米处动力米高度可以看出，在此海域存在两个气旋型涡旋（Cyclonic eddy）一个中心约在10.2°N，128°N，另一个中心在129°N以东，6.5°N左右的地方。用带~(63)Ni电子捕获检测器（ECD）的气相色谱对西太平洋的一些站在0米、50米、100米、150米、200米、300米等六层海水（有些站8～10层）中的氟里昴浓度进行了测定，发现在大部分站位位于300米以上的海水中氟里昴12浓度皆高于1.0 pmol·l~(-1)。表明表层温度混合层和温跃层之间的氟里昴-12交换的比较强烈，特别是靠近棉兰老岛的地方。用水下100米、200米氟里昴-12浓度等值线地域分布和变化，追踪北赤道流，棉兰老流，北赤道流之间的联系，结果与同一海域的动力米高度的地域分布十分吻合。再通过比较本航次东边这条断面的氟里昴-12浓度断面图和地转流断面图，我们能清楚地看的到，西向流区对应着高浓度的氟里昴-12分布，特别是在8～9°N流轴上面存在着氟里昴-12浓度最大值轴，而东向流区对应着相对低浓度的氟里昴-12分布，由以上结果，我们可以得出结论：用氟里昴示踪棉兰老岛以东海域的近表面环流是十分有效的，这样，氟里昴浓度在这海域的分布对今后建立本海域的大洋环流数学模式将能起重要作用。本文根据氟里昴主要来源是北半球的工业区，提出了一个氟里昴输入棉兰老岛以东海域的机制。