Time-series regression models to study the short-term effects of environmental factors on health

Time series regression models are especially suitable in epidemiology for evaluating short-term effects of time-varying exposures on health. The problem is that potential for confounding in time series regression is very high. Thus, it is important that trend and seasonality are properly accounted for. Our paper reviews the statistical models commonly used in time-series regression methods, specially allowing for serial correlation, make them potentially useful for selected epidemiological purposes. In particular, we discuss the use of time-series regression for counts using a wide range Generalised Linear Models as well as Generalised Additive Models. In addition, recently critical points in using statistical software for GAM were stressed, and reanalyses of time series data on air pollution and health were performed in order to update already published. Applications are offered through an example on the relationship between asthma emergency admissions and photochemical air pollutants

Optimization of treatment with interferon beta in multiple sclerosis. Usefulness of automatic system application criteria

Background. A software based tool has been developed (Optem) to allow automatize the recommendations of the Canadian Multiple Sclerosis Working Group for optimizing MS treatment in order to avoid subjective interpretation. METHODS: Treatment Optimization Recommendations (TORs) were applied to our database of patients treated with IFN beta1a IM. Patient data were assessed during year 1 for disease activity, and patients were assigned to 2 groups according to TOR: "change treatment" (CH) and "no change treatment" (NCH). These assessments were then compared to observed clinical outcomes for disease activity over the following years. RESULTS: We have data on 55 patients. The "change treatment" status was assigned to 22 patients, and "no change treatment" to 33 patients. The estimated sensitivity and specificity according to last visit status were 73.9% and 84.4%. During the following years, the Relapse Rate was always higher in the "change treatment" group than in the "no change treatment" group (5 y; CH: 0.7, NCH: 0.07; p < 0.001, 12 m - last visit; CH: 0.536, NCH: 0.34). We obtained the same results with the EDSS (4 y; CH: 3.53, NCH: 2.55, annual progression rate in 12 m - last visit; CH: 0.29, NCH: 0.13). CONCLUSION: Applying TOR at the first year of therapy allowed accurate prediction of continued disease activity in relapses and disability progression.

Bacterial biosensors for measuring availability of environmental pollutants

Abstract: Traditionally, pollution risk assessment is based on the measurement of a pollutant's total concentration in a sample. The toxicity of a given pollutant in the environment, however, is tightly linked to its bioavailability, which may differ significantly from the total amount. Physico-chemical and biological parameters strongly influence pollutant fate in terms of leaching, sequestration and biodegradation. Bacterial sensorreporters, which consist of living micro-organisms genetically engineered to produce specific output in response to target chemicals, offer an interesting alternative to monitoring approaches. Bacterial sensor-reporters detect bioavailable and/or bioaccessible compound fractions in samples. Currently, a variety of environmental pollutants can be targeted by specific biosensor-reporters. Although most of such strains are still confined to the lab, several recent reports have demonstrated utility of bacterial sensing-reporting in the field, with method detection limits in the nanomolar range. This review illustrates the general design principles for bacterial sensor-reporters, presents an overview of the existing biosensor-reporter strains with emphasis on organic compound detection. A specific focus throughout is on the concepts of bioavailability and bioaccessibility, and how bacteria-based sensing-reporting systems can help to improve our basic understanding of the different processes at work.

Variability of indication criteria in knee and hip replacement: an observational study

BACKGROUND. Total knee (TKR) and hip (THR) replacement (arthroplasty) are effective surgical procedures that relieve pain, improve patients' quality of life and increase functional capacity. Studies on variations in medical practice usually place the indications for performing these procedures to be highly variable, because surgeons appear to follow different criteria when recommending surgery in patients with different severity levels. We therefore proposed a study to evaluate inter-hospital variability in arthroplasty indication. METHODS. The pre-surgical condition of 1603 patients included was compared by their personal characteristics, clinical situation and self-perceived health status. Patients were asked to complete two health-related quality of life questionnaires: the generic SF-12 (Short Form) and the specific WOMAC (Western Ontario and Mcmaster Universities) scale. The type of patient undergoing primary arthroplasty was similar in the 15 different hospitals evaluated.The variability in baseline WOMAC score between hospitals in THR and TKR indication was described by range, mean and standard deviation (SD), mean and standard deviation weighted by the number of procedures at each hospital, high/low ratio or extremal quotient (EQ5-95), variation coefficient (CV5-95) and weighted variation coefficient (WCV5-95) for 5-95 percentile range. The variability in subjective and objective signs was evaluated using median, range and WCV5-95. The appropriateness of the procedures performed was calculated using a specific threshold proposed by Quintana et al for assessing pain and functional capacity. RESULTS. The variability expressed as WCV5-95 was very low, between 0.05 and 0.11 for all three dimensions on WOMAC scale for both types of procedure in all participating hospitals. The variability in the physical and mental SF-12 components was very low for both types of procedure (0.08 and 0.07 for hip and 0.03 and 0.07 for knee surgery patients). However, a moderate-high variability was detected in subjective-objective signs. Among all the surgeries performed, approximately a quarter of them could be considered to be inappropriate. CONCLUSIONS. A greater inter-hospital variability was observed for objective than for subjective signs for both procedures, suggesting that the differences in clinical criteria followed by surgeons when indicating arthroplasty are the main responsible factors for the variation in surgery rates.

Occurrence and composition of class 1 and class 2 integrons in clinical and environmental O1 and non-O1/non-O139 Vibrio cholerae strains from the Brazilian Amazon

This study identified and characterised class 1 and 2 integrons in clinical and environmental Vibrio cholerae O1 and non-O1/non-O139 strains isolated from the Brazilian Amazon. The aadA2 and aadA7 gene cassettes were found in class 1 integrons in two genotypes of environmental V. cholerae non-O1/non-O139. Empty integrons were found in strains from the Brazilian cholera epidemic. A class 2 integron was detected in one strain from the V. cholerae Amazonia lineage harbouring sat1 and aadA1 genes. All isolates were resistant to aminoglycosides, indicating aadA functionality. These findings suggest that environmental bacteria act as cassette reservoirs that favour the emergence of resistant pathogens.

Testing the validity of a set of diagnostic criteria for sensory neuronopathies: a francophone collaborative study.

There are no validated criteria for the diagnosis of sensory neuronopathy (SNN) yet. In a preliminary monocenter study a set of criteria relying on clinical and electrophysiological data showed good sensitivity and specificity for a diagnosis of probable SNN. The aim of this study was to test these criteria on a French multicenter study. 210 patients with sensory neuropathies from 15 francophone reference centers for neuromuscular diseases were included in the study with an expert diagnosis of non-SNN, SNN or suspected SNN according to the investigations performed in these centers. Diagnosis was obtained independently from the set of criteria to be tested. The expert diagnosis was taken as the reference against which the proposed SNN criteria were tested. The set relied on clinical and electrophysiological data easily obtainable with routine investigations. 9/61 (16.4 %) of non-SNN patients, 23/36 (63.9 %) of suspected SNN, and 102/113 (90.3 %) of SNN patients according to the expert diagnosis were classified as SNN by the criteria. The SNN criteria tested against the expert diagnosis in the SNN and non-SNN groups had 90.3 % (102/113) sensitivity, 85.2 % (52/61) specificity, 91.9 % (102/111) positive predictive value, and 82.5 % (52/63) negative predictive value. Discordance between the expert diagnosis and the SNN criteria occurred in 20 cases. After analysis of these cases, 11 could be reallocated to a correct diagnosis in accordance with the SNN criteria. The proposed criteria may be useful for the diagnosis of probable SNN in patients with sensory neuropathy. They can be reached with simple clinical and paraclinical investigations.

A framework for assessing the scale of influence of environmental factors on ecological patterns

The distribution of living organisms, habitats and ecosystems is primarily driven by abiotic environmental factors that are spatially structured. Assessing the spatial structure of environmental factors, e.g., through spatial autocorrelation analyses (SAC), can thus help us understand their scale of influence on the distribution of organisms, habitats, and ecosystems. Yet SAC analyses of environmental factors are still rarely performed in biogeographic studies. Here, we describe a novel framework that combines SAC and statistical clustering to identify scales of spatial patterning of environmental factors, which can then be interpreted as the scales at which those factors influence the geographic distribution of biological and ecological features. We illustrate this new framework with datasets at different spatial or thematic resolutions. This framework is conceptually and statistically robust, providing a valuable approach to tackle a wide range of issues in ecological and environmental research and particularly when building predictors for ecological models. The new framework can significantly promote fundamental research on all spatially-structured ecological patterns. It can also foster research and application in such fields as global change ecology, conservation planning, and landscape management.

Multiplex PCR-based detection of Leptospira in environmental water samples obtained from a slum settlement

The aim of this study was to apply a molecular protocol to detect leptospiral DNA in environmental water samples. The study was carried out in a peri-urban settlement in Petrópolis, state of Rio de Janeiro. A multiplex PCR method employing the primers LipL32 and 16SrRNA was used. Three out of 100 analysed samples were positive in the multiplex PCR, two were considered to have saprophytic leptospires and one had pathogenic leptospires. The results obtained supported the idea that multiplex PCR can be used to detect Leptospira spp in water samples. This method was also able to differentiate between saprophytic and pathogenic leptospires and was able to do so much more easily than conventional methodologies.

Refinement criteria for global illumination using convex funcions

In several computer graphics areas, a refinement criterion is often needed to decide whether to goon or to stop sampling a signal. When the sampled values are homogeneous enough, we assume thatthey represent the signal fairly well and we do not need further refinement, otherwise more samples arerequired, possibly with adaptive subdivision of the domain. For this purpose, a criterion which is verysensitive to variability is necessary. In this paper, we present a family of discrimination measures, thef-divergences, meeting this requirement. These convex functions have been well studied and successfullyapplied to image processing and several areas of engineering. Two applications to global illuminationare shown: oracles for hierarchical radiosity and criteria for adaptive refinement in ray-tracing. Weobtain significantly better results than with classic criteria, showing that f-divergences are worth furtherinvestigation in computer graphics. Also a discrimination measure based on entropy of the samples forrefinement in ray-tracing is introduced. The recursive decomposition of entropy provides us with a naturalmethod to deal with the adaptive subdivision of the sampling region

Who we are and who can join us: National identity content and entry criteria for new immigrants

We argue that attitudes about immigration can be better understood by paying closer attention to the various ways in which national group boundaries are demarcated. We describe two related lines of work that address this. The first deals with national group definitions and, based on evidence from studies carried out in England and analyses of international survey data, argues that the relationship between national identification and prejudice toward immigrants is contingent on the extent to which ethnic or civic definitions of nationality are endorsed. The second, which uses European survey data, examines support for ascribed and acquired criteria that can be applied when determining who is permitted to migrate to one's country, and the various forms of national and individual threat that affect support for these criteria. We explain how the research benefits from a multilevel approach and also suggest how these findings relate to some current policy debates.

Cryptococcus neoformans var. grubii - Pathogenicity of environmental isolates correlated to virulence factors, susceptibility to fluconazole and molecular profile

The pathogenicity of Cryptococcus neoformans is heterogeneous and is associated with the expression of virulence factors. This study aimed to correlate the pathogenicity of C. neoformans var. grubii in BALB/c mice with in vitro virulence factors, fluconazole minimal inhibitory concentrations (MICs) and molecular profiles, before and after animal passage. Ten environmental isolates and one ATCC strain of C. neoformans var. grubii mating type α were evaluated. Most isolates (91%) killed 50% or more of the infected animals by day 24 postinfection and were recovered from the lungs and brains of surviving animals on days 7 and 14 postinfection. The burden of yeast in the lungs was more variable than that in the brain. The differences in the expression of virulence factors (growth at 37ºC, presence and size of the capsule and production of melanin, urease, proteinase and phospholipase) by most isolates pre and postpassage in animals were not statistically significant. The fluconazole MICs in postpassaged lines differed by a one-dilution from the MIC of the corresponding prepassaged line for six isolates. Using molecular typing [polymerase chain reaction-fingerprinting with (GACA)4 and M13], eight isolates were identified as VNI and three as VNII. We concluded that different isolates with the same molecular and phenotypic profiles, including isolates that are markedly hypervirulent, span a wide range of virulence and there were no changes in virulence factors in the postpassaged lines when compared with the corresponding nonpassaged lines.

Regulation of free corticosterone and CBG capacity under different environmental conditions in altricial nestlings.

The concentration of circulating glucocorticoids is regulated in response to environmental and endogenous conditions. Total circulating corticosterone, the main glucocorticoid in birds, consists of a fraction which is bound to corticosterone-binding globulins (CBG) and a free fraction. There is increasing evidence that the environment modulates free corticosterone levels through varying the concentration of CBG, but experimental evidence is lacking. To test the hypothesis that the regulation of chronic stress in response to endogenous and environmental conditions involves variation in both corticosterone release and CBG capacity, we performed an experiment with barn owl (Tyto alba) nestlings in two different years with pronounced differences in environmental conditions and in nestlings experimentally fed ad libitum. In half of the individuals we implanted a corticosterone-releasing pellet to artificially increase corticosterone levels and in the other half we implanted a placebo pellet. We then repeatedly collected blood samples to measure the change in total and free corticosterone levels as well as CBG capacity. The increase in circulating total corticosterone after artificial corticosterone administration varied with environmental conditions and with the food regime of the nestlings. The highest total corticosterone levels were found in nestlings growing up in poor environmental conditions and the lowest in ad libitum fed nestlings. CBG was highest in the year with poor environmental conditions, so that, contrary to total corticosterone, free corticosterone levels were low under poor environmental conditions. When nestlings were fed ad libitum total corticosterone, CBG and free corticosterone did not increase when administering corticosterone. These results suggest that depending on the individual history an animal experienced during development the HPA-axis is regulated differently.

Influence of environmental conditions on the distribution of Central Asian green toads with three ploidy levels.

We studied the distribution of Palearctic green toads (Bufo viridis subgroup), an anuran species group with three ploidy levels, inhabiting the Central Asian Amudarya River drainage. Various approaches (one-way, multivariate, components variance analyses and maximum entropy modelling) were used to estimate the effect of altitude, precipitation, temperature and land vegetation covers on the distribution of toads. It is usually assumed that polyploid species occur in regions with harsher climatic conditions (higher latitudes, elevations, etc.), but for the green toads complex, we revealed a more intricate situation. The diploid species (Bufo shaartusiensis and Bufo turanensis) inhabit the arid lowlands (from 44 to 789 m a.s.l.), while tetraploid Bufo pewzowi were recorded in mountainous regions (340-3492 m a.s.l.) with usually lower temperatures and higher precipitation rates than in the region inhabited by diploid species. The triploid species Bufo baturae was found in the Pamirs (Tajikistan) at the highest altitudes (2503-3859 m a.s.l.) under the harshest climatic conditions.