Climate change and the risks associated with delayed breeding in a tropical wild bird population

There is growing evidence of changes in the timing of important ecological events, such as flowering in plants and reproduction in animals, in response to climate change, with implications for population decline and biodiversity loss. Recent work has shown that the timing of breeding in wild birds is changing in response to climate change partly because individuals are remarkably flexible in their timing of breeding. Despite this work, our understanding of these processes in wild populations remains very limited and biased towards species from temperate regions. Here, we report the response to changing climate in a tropical wild bird population using a long-term dataset on a formerly critically endangered island endemic, the Mauritius kestrel. We show that the frequency of spring rainfall affects the timing of breeding, with birds breeding later in wetter springs. Delays in breeding have consequences in terms of reduced reproductive success as birds get exposed to risks associated with adverse climatic conditions later on in the breeding season, which reduce nesting success. These results, combined with the fact that frequency of spring rainfall has increased by about 60 per cent in our study area since 1962, imply that climate change is exposing birds to the stochastic risks of late reproduction by causing them to start breeding relatively late in the season.

Population estimates and habitat use by the critically endangered Taita Apalis Apalis fuscigularis in south-eastern Kenya

The Taita Apalis Apalis fuscigularis (IUCN category: Critically Endangered) is a species endemic to south-eastern Kenya. We assessed population size and habitat use in the three forest sites in which it is known to occur (Ngangao, Chawia and Vuria, totalling 257 ha). The estimate of total population size, derived from distance sampling at 412 sample points, ranged from 310 to 654 individuals, with the northern section of Ngangao fragment having 10-fold higher densities than Chawia (2.47-4.93 versus 0.22-0.41 birds ha(-1)). Ngangao north alone hosted 50% of the global population of the species. The highly degraded Vuria fragment also had moderately high densities (1.63-3.72 birds ha(-1)) suggesting that the species tolerates some human disturbance. Taita Apalis prefers vegetation with abundant climbers, but the predictive power of habitat use models was low, suggesting that habitat structure is not a primary cause for the low density of the species in Chawia. Protecting the subpopulation in the northern section of Ngangao is a priority, as is identifying factors responsible of the low abundance in Chawia, because ameliorating conditions in this large fragment could substantially increase the population of Taita Apalis.

Phenotype MicroArray (TM) in the metabolic characterisation of Salmonella serotypes Agona, Enteritidis, Give, Hvittingfoss, Infantis, Newport and Typhimurium

The Phenotype MicroArray (TM) (PM) technology was used to study the metabolic characteristics of 29 Salmonella strains belonging to seven serotypes of S. enterica spp. enterica. Strains of serotypes Typhimurium (six strains among definite phage types DTs 1, 40 and 104) and Agona (two strains) were tested for 949 substrates, Enteritidis (six strains of phage type PT1), Give, Hvittingfoss, Infantis and Newport strains (two of each) were tested for 190 substrates and seven other Agona strains for 95 substrates. The strains represented 18 genotypes in pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE). Among 949 substrates, 18 were identified that could be used to differentiate between the strains of those seven serotypes or within a single serotype. Unique metabolic differences between the Finnish endemic Typhimurium DT1 and Agona strains were detected, for example, in the metabolism of d-tagatose, d-galactonic acid gamma-lactone and l-proline as a carbon source. Thus, the PM technique is a useful tool for identifying potential differential markers on a metabolic basis that could be used for epidemiological surveillance.

In vivo characterization of Lactobacillus johnsonii FI9785 for use as a defined competitive exclusion agent against bacterial pathogens in poultry

Aims: To test the efficacy of Lactobacillus johnsonii FI9785 in reducing the colonization and shedding of Salmonella enterica serotype Enteritidis, Escherichia coli O78:K80 and Clostridium perfringens in poultry. Methods and Results: Specific pathogen-free chicks (1 day old) were dosed with a single oral inoculum of 1 x 10(9) CFU. Lactobacillus johnsonii FI9785 and 24 h later were challenged in separate experiments with S. Enteritidis (S1400, nal(r)) and E. coli O78:K80 (EC34195, nal(r)). There were no significant effects against S. Enteritidis whereas colonization of the small intestine by E. coli O78:K80 was reduced significantly. Both S. Enteritidis and E. coli colonized the caeca and colon to levels equivalent to control birds and there was no reduction in shedding as assessed by a semi-quantitative cloacal swabbing technique. Specific pathogen-free chicks (20 day old) were dosed with a single oral inoculum of 1 x 10(9) CFU L. johnsonii FI9785 and 24 h later were challenged with C. perfringens. A single oral dose of L. johnsonii FI9785 was sufficient to suppress all aspects of colonization and persistence of C. perfringens. Conclusions: Lactobacillus johnsonii FI9785 may be given to poultry for use as a competitive exclusion agent to control C. perfringens. Significance and Impact of the Study: Lactobacillus johnsonii FI9785 may be a valuable tool to control the endemic disease of necrotic enteritis, thereby reducing economic losses associated with reduced use of antimicrobials in the poultry industry.

Greece in crisis: austerity, populism and the politics of blame

Within the broader debate on the Greek crisis, the theory of ‘populist democracy’ postulates that populism is fundamental to the sustenance of the Greek political system and is at the heart of Greece's endemic domestic weaknesses. This article tests this assumption empirically through the use of a sophisticated framing analysis of speeches delivered by the leaders of the five parties in the Greek parliament in the period 2009–11. The findings confirm that populism: (a) is expressed through the narratives of political actors; (b) is observed across the party system; (c) is expressed in the forms of blame-shifting and exclusivity; and (d) differs depending on position in the party system. The article contributes to the debate by testing and building on the theory of democratic populism, providing a novel way of measuring and operationalizing populism and identifying a new typology that distinguishes between mainstream and fringe populism.

Agriculture and the life histories of Mauritius kestrels

Habitat modification for agriculture is one of the greatest current threats to global biodiversity. Studies show large-scale population declines and short-term demographic impacts, but knowledge of the long-term effects of agriculture on individuals remains poor. This thesis examines the short- and long-term impact of agriculture on a reintroduced population of the Mauritius kestrel Falco punctatus, a tropical forest-dwelling raptor endemic to the island of Mauritius, that also utilises agricultural habitats. This population is a particularly appropriate model system, because complete life history data exists for individuals over a 22-year period, alongside detailed habitat and climate data. Agriculture has a short-term detrimental effect on Mauritius kestrel breeding success by exacerbating the seasonal decline in fledgling production. This is partly driven by the habitat-specific composition of the prey community that kestrels exploit to feed their chicks. The fledglings from agricultural territories tend to recruit in agricultural territories. This is largely due to poor natal dispersal and fine-scale spatial autocorrelation in the habitat matrix. Breeders do not respond to agriculture in the breeding territory by dispersing, unless the pair bond is broken. Therefore, individuals originating in agricultural territories tend to recruit, and remain in, agricultural territories throughout their lives. In addition to this, females from agricultural natal territories have shorter lifespans, schedule their peak reproductive output earlier in life, and exhibit more rapid senescence than non-agricultural females. The combination of this long-term effect and the adult experience of agriculture imposed by life history and environmental constraints, leads to a lower mean lifetime reproductive rate compared to females originating in non-agricultural habitats. These results demonstrate that agriculture experienced in early life has a lifelong effect on individuals. The effects can persist in time and space, with potentially delayed effects on population dynamics. These findings are important for understanding species’ responses to agricultural expansion.

Whole life thinking and engineering the future

Whole-life thinking for engineers working on the built environment has become more important in a fast changing world.Engineers are increasingly concerned with complex systems, in which the parts interact with each other and with the outside world in many ways – the relationships between the parts determine how the system behaves. Systems thinking provides one approach to developing a more robust whole life approach. Systems thinking is a process of understanding how things influence one another within a wider perspective. Complexity, chaos, and risk are endemic in all major projects. New approaches are needed to produce more reliable whole life predictions. Best value, rather than lowest cost can be achieved by using whole-life appraisal as part of the design and delivery strategy.

Explaining patterns of avian diversity and endemicity: climate and biomes of southern Africa over the last 140,000 years

Aim Test hypotheses that present biodiversity and endemic species richness are related to climatic stability and/or biome persistence.Location Africa south of 15° S. Methods Seventy eight HadCM3 general circulation model palaeoclimate experiments spanning the last 140,000 years, plus a pre-industrial experiment,were used to calculate measures of climatic variability for 0.5° grid cells. Models were fitted relating distributions of the nine biomes of South Africa,Lesotho and Swaziland to present climate. These models were used to simulate potential past biome distribution and extent for the 78 palaeoclimate experiments, and three measures of biome persistence. Climatic response surfaces were fitted for 690 bird species regularly breeding in the region and used to simulate present species richness for cells of the 0.5° grid. Species richness was evaluated for residents, mobile species (nomadic or partially/altitudinally migrant within the region), and intra-African migrants, and also separately for endemic/near-endemic (hereafter ‘endemic’) species as a whole and those associated with each biome. Our hypotheses were tested by analysing correlations between species richness and climatic variability or biome persistence. Results The magnitude of climatic variability showed clear spatial patterns. Marked changes in biome distributions and extents were projected, although limited areas of persistence were projected for some biomes. Overall species richness was not correlated with climatic variability, although richness of mobile species showed a weak negative correlation. Endemic species richness was significantly negatively correlated with climatic variability. Strongest correlations, however, were positive correlations between biome persistence and richness of endemics associated with individual biomes. Main conclusions Low climatic variability, and especially a degree of stability enabling biome persistence, is strongly correlated with species richness of birds endemic to southern Africa. This probably principally reflects reduced extinction risk for these species where the biome to which they are adapted persisted

The ancient Britons: groundwater fauna survived extreme climate change over tens of millions of years across NW Europe

Global climate changes during the Cenozoic (65.5–0 Ma) caused major biological range shifts and extinctions. In northern Europe, for example, a pattern of few endemics and the dominance of wide-ranging species is thought to have been determined by the Pleistocene (2.59–0.01 Ma) glaciations. This study, in contrast, reveals an ancient subsurface fauna endemic to Britain and Ireland. Using a Bayesian phylogenetic approach, we found that two species of stygobitic invertebrates (genus Niphargus) have not only survived the entire Pleistocene in refugia but have persisted for at least 19.5 million years. Other Niphargus species form distinct cryptic taxa that diverged from their nearest continental relative between 5.6 and 1.0 Ma. The study also reveals an unusual biogeographical pattern in the Niphargus genus. It originated in north-west Europe approximately 87 Ma and underwent a gradual range expansion. Phylogenetic diversity and species age are highest in north-west Europe, suggesting resilience to extreme climate change and strongly contrasting the patterns seen in surface fauna. However, species diversity is highest in south-east Europe, indicating that once the genus spread to these areas (approximately 25 Ma), geomorphological and climatic conditions enabled much higher diversification. Our study highlights that groundwater ecosystems provide an important contribution to biodiversity and offers insight into the interactions between biological and climatic processes.

A mathematical model for the dynamics of Banana Xanthomonas Wilt with vertical transmission and inflorescence infection

A mathematical model for Banana Xanthomonas Wilt (BXW) spread by insect is presented. The model incorporates inflorescence infection and vertical transmission from the mother corm to attached suckers, but not tool-based transmission by humans. Expressions for the basic reproduction number R0 are obtained and it is verified that disease persists, at a unique endemic level, when R0 > 1. From sensitivity analysis, inflorescence infection rate and roguing rate were the parameters with most influence on disease persistence and equilibrium level. Vertical transmission parameters had less effect on persistence threshold values. Parameters were approximately estimated from field data. The model indicates that single stem removal is a feasible approach to eradication if spread is mainly via inflorescence infection. This requires continuous surveillance and debudding such that a 50% reduction in inflorescence infection and 2–3 weeks interval of surveillance would eventually lead to full recovery of banana plantations and hence improved production.

Geographical distribution of American cutaneous leishmaniasis and its phlebotomine vectors (Diptera: Psychodidae) in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil

Background: American cutaneous leishmaniasis (ACL) is a re-emerging disease in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil. It is important to understand both the vector and disease distribution to help design control strategies. As an initial step in applying geographic information systems (GIS) and remote sensing (RS) tools to map disease-risk, the objectives of the present work were to: (i) produce a single database of species distributions of the sand fly vectors in the state of Sao Paulo, (ii) create combined distributional maps of both the incidence of ACL and its sand fly vectors, and (iii) thereby provide individual municipalities with a source of reference material for work carried out in their area. Results: A database containing 910 individual records of sand fly occurrence in the state of Sao Paulo, from 37 different sources, was compiled. These records date from between 1943 to 2009, and describe the presence of at least one of the six incriminated or suspected sand fly vector species in 183/645 (28.4%) municipalities. For the remaining 462 (71.6%) municipalities, we were unable to locate records of any of the six incriminated or suspected sand fly vector species (Nyssomyia intermedia, N. neivai, N. whitmani, Pintomyia fischeri, P. pessoai and Migonemyia migonei). The distribution of each of the six incriminated or suspected vector species of ACL in the state of Sao Paulo were individually mapped and overlaid on the incidence of ACL for the period 1993 to 1995 and 1998 to 2007. Overall, the maps reveal that the six sand fly vector species analyzed have unique and heterogeneous, although often overlapping, distributions. Several sand fly species - Nyssomyia intermedia and N. neivai - are highly localized, while the other sand fly species - N. whitmani, M. migonei, P. fischeri and P. pessoai - are much more broadly distributed. ACL has been reported in 160/183 (87.4%) of the municipalities with records for at least one of the six incriminated or suspected sand fly vector species, while there are no records of any of these sand fly species in 318/478 (66.5%) municipalities with ACL. Conclusions: The maps produced in this work provide basic data on the distribution of the six incriminated or suspected sand fly vectors of ACL in the state of Sao Paulo, and highlight the complex and geographically heterogeneous pattern of ACL transmission in the region. Further studies are required to clarify the role of each of the six suspected sand fly vector species in different regions of the state of Sao Paulo, especially in the majority of municipalities where ACL is present but sand fly vectors have not yet been identified.

Detection of Leishmania (Leishmania) infantum RNA in fleas and ticks collected from naturally infected dogs

The occurrence of the insect vector (sand flies) with low rates of Leishmania infection, as well as autochthonous transmission in the absence of the natural vector in dogs, have been reported. These unexpected data suggest a hypothesis of other arthropods as a possible way of Leishmania transmission. The prevalence of Leishmania (Leishmania) infantum in fleas and ticks collected from dogs with canine visceral leishmaniasis (CVL), as well as parasite viability, were evaluated herein. The presence of L. (L.) infantum was assayed by PCR and ELISA in ectoparasites and biological samples from 73 dogs living in a Brazilian endemic area. As the occurrence of Leishmania DNA in ticks and fleas is expected given their blood-feeding habits, we next investigated whether parasites can remain viable inside ticks. PCR and ELISA confirmed that 83% of the dogs had CVL. Fleas and ticks (nymphs, male and female adults) were collected in 55% and 63% of the 73 dogs, respectively. Out of the 60 dogs with CVL, 80% harbored ectoparasites infected with L. (L.) infantum. The infection rates of the ectoparasites were 23% and 50% for fleas and ticks, respectively. The RNA analysis of the extract from ticks left in laboratory conditions during 7 to 10 days after removal from CVL dogs showed that parasites were alive. In addition, live parasites were also detected inside adult ticks recently molted in laboratory conditions. These findings indicate a higher infection rate of L. (L.) infantum in ticks and fleas, but they do not conclusively demonstrate whether these ticks can act as vectors of CVL, despite the fact that their rates were higher than those previously described in Lutzomyia longipalpis. The presence of viable L. (L.) infantum in ticks suggests the possible importance of dog ectoparasites in CVL dissemination.

Misidentification of two Brazilian triatomes, Triatoma arthurneivai and Triatoma wygodzinskyi, revealed by geometric morphometrics

Triatoma arthurneivai Lent & Martins and Triatoma wygodzinskyi Lent (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) are two Brazilian species found in the sylvatic environment. Several authors may have misidentified T. arthurneivai and consequently published erroneous information. This work reports the use of geometric morphometric analysis on wings in order to differentiate T. arthurneivai and T. wygodzinskyi, and thus to detect possible misidentifications. Triatomines collected from the field in the states of Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo, and from laboratory colonies, were used. Analyses show a clear differentiation between specimens of T. arthurneivai and T. wygodzinskyi. This indicates that T. arthurneivai populations from Sao Paulo state were misidentified and should be considered as T. wygodzinskyi. This study also suggests that T. arthurneivai is an endemic species from Serra do Cipo, Minas Gerais state.

Phylogenetic analysis of the Brazilian microendemic Paepalanthus subgenus Xeractis (Eriocaulaceae) inferred from morphology

Paepalanthus subgenus Xeractis (Eriocaulaceae) comprises 28 recognized species endemic to the Espinhaco Range, in Minas Gerais state, Brazil. Most species of the subgenus are restricted to small localities and critically endangered, but still in need of systematic study. The monophyly of the subgenus has already been tested, but only with a few species. Our study presents the first phylogenetic hypothesis within the group, based on morphology. A maximum parsimony analysis was conducted on a matrix of 30 characters for 30 terminal taxa, including all species of the subgenus and two outgroups. The biogeographical hypotheses for the subgenus were inferred based on dispersal-vicariance analysis (DIVA). The analysis provided one most-parsimonious hypothesis that supports most of the latest published subdivisions (sections and series). However, some conflicts remain concerning the position of a few species and the relationships between sections. The distribution and origin(s) of microendemism are also discussed, providing the ground for conservation strategies to be developed in the region. (C) 2011 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 2011, 167, 137-152.

Fungal community associated with marine macroalgae from Antarctica

Filamentous fungi and yeasts associated with the marine algae Adenocystis utricularis, Desmarestia anceps, and Palmaria decipiens from Antarctica were studied. A total of 75 fungal isolates, represented by 27 filamentous fungi and 48 yeasts, were isolated from the three algal species and identified by morphological, physiological, and sequence analyses of the internal transcribed spacer region and D1/D2 variable domains of the large-subunit rRNA gene. The filamentous fungi and yeasts obtained were identified as belonging to the genera Geomyces, Antarctomyces, Oidiodendron, Penicillium, Phaeosphaeria, Aureobasidium, Cryptococcus, Leucosporidium, Metschnikowia, and Rhodotorula. The prevalent species were the filamentous fungus Geomyces pannorum and the yeast Metschnikowia australis. Two fungal species isolated in our study, Antarctomyces psychrotrophicus and M. australis, are endemic to Antarctica. This work is the first study of fungi associated with Antarctic marine macroalgae, and contributes to the taxonomy and ecology of the marine fungi living in polar environments. These fungal species may have an important role in the ecosystem and in organic matter recycling.