Simultaneous Nash bargaining with consistent beliefs

We propose and analyze a new solution concept, the R solution, for three-person, transferable utility, cooperative games. In the spirit of the Nash Bargaining Solution, our concept is founded on the predicted outcomes of simultaneous, two-party negotiations that would be the alternative to the grand coalition. These possibly probabilistic predictions are based on consistent beliefs. We analyze the properties of the R solution and compare it with the Shapley value and other concepts. The R solution exists and is unique. It belongs to the bargaining set and to the core whenever the latter is not empty. In fact, when the grand coalition can simply execute one of the three possible bilateral trades, the R solution is the most egalitarian selection of the bargaining set. Finally, we discuss how the R solution changes important conclusions of several well known Industrial Organization models.

Policy evaluation and uncertainty about the effects of oil prices on economic activity

This paper addresses the issue of policy evaluation in a context in which policymakers are uncertain about the effects of oil prices on economic performance. I consider models of the economy inspired by Solow (1980), Blanchard and Gali (2007), Kim and Loungani (1992) and Hamilton (1983, 2005), which incorporate different assumptions on the channels through which oil prices have an impact on economic activity. I first study the characteristics of the model space and I analyze the likelihood of the different specifications. I show that the existence of plausible alternative representations of the economy forces the policymaker to face the problem of model uncertainty. Then, I use the Bayesian approach proposed by Brock, Durlauf and West (2003, 2007) and the minimax approach developed by Hansen and Sargent (2008) to integrate this form of uncertainty into policy evaluation. I find that, in the environment under analysis, the standard Taylor rule is outperformed under a number of criteria by alternative simple rules in which policymakers introduce persistence in the policy instrument and respond to changes in the real price of oil.

The de facto independence of regulatory agencies and its consequences for policy making and regulatory outcomes

This dissertation focuses on the practice of regulatory governance, throughout the study of the functioning of formally independent regulatory agencies (IRAs), with special attention to their de facto independence. The research goals are grounded on a "neo-positivist" (or "reconstructed positivist") position (Hawkesworth 1992; Radaelli 2000b; Sabatier 2000). This perspective starts from the ontological assumption that even if subjective perceptions are constitutive elements of political phenomena, a real world exists beyond any social construction and can, however imperfectly, become the object of scientific inquiry. Epistemologically, it follows that hypothetical-deductive theories with explanatory aims can be tested by employing a proper methodology and set of analytical techniques. It is thus possible to make scientific inferences and general conclusions to a certain extent, according to a Bayesian conception of knowledge, in order to update the prior scientific beliefs in the truth of the related hypotheses (Howson 1998), while acknowledging the fact that the conditions of truth are at least partially subjective and historically determined (Foucault 1988; Kuhn 1970). At the same time, a sceptical position is adopted towards the supposed disjunction between facts and values and the possibility of discovering abstract universal laws in social science. It has been observed that the current version of capitalism corresponds to the golden age of regulation, and that since the 1980s no government activity in OECD countries has grown faster than regulatory functions (Jacobs 1999). Following an apparent paradox, the ongoing dynamics of liberalisation, privatisation, decartelisation, internationalisation, and regional integration hardly led to the crumbling of the state, but instead promoted a wave of regulatory growth in the face of new risks and new opportunities (Vogel 1996). Accordingly, a new order of regulatory capitalism is rising, implying a new division of labour between state and society and entailing the expansion and intensification of regulation (Levi-Faur 2005). The previous order, relying on public ownership and public intervention and/or on sectoral self-regulation by private actors, is being replaced by a more formalised, expert-based, open, and independently regulated model of governance. Independent regulation agencies (IRAs), that is, formally independent administrative agencies with regulatory powers that benefit from public authority delegated from political decision makers, represent the main institutional feature of regulatory governance (Gilardi 2008). IRAs constitute a relatively new technology of regulation in western Europe, at least for certain domains, but they are increasingly widespread across countries and sectors. For instance, independent regulators have been set up for regulating very diverse issues, such as general competition, banking and finance, telecommunications, civil aviation, railway services, food safety, the pharmaceutical industry, electricity, environmental protection, and personal data privacy. Two attributes of IRAs deserve a special mention. On the one hand, they are formally separated from democratic institutions and elected politicians, thus raising normative and empirical concerns about their accountability and legitimacy. On the other hand, some hard questions about their role as political actors are still unaddressed, though, together with regulatory competencies, IRAs often accumulate executive, (quasi-)legislative, and adjudicatory functions, as well as about their performance.

The effects of uncertainty about countries' compliance with the Stability and Growth Pact

The Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) was established to govern discretionary fiscal policy in the European Monetary Union. This article studies the effects created when there is uncertainty about the members’ commitment to respecting the established deficit limits in the SGP. We will show that, even if countries respect the SGP deficit ceiling, the presence of uncertainty about their compliance will bring about higher volatility in key economic variables, which could, in turn, affect unemployment and growth negatively. This finding shows that it is important to reduce uncertainty about the members’ commitment towards the SGP. Keywords: fiscal policy rules, monetary union, Stability and Growth Pact, uncertainty, commitment. JEL No.: E63, F55, H62, H87

Uncovering a role for micro-RNAs in sleep homeostasis and energy metabolism

Micro-RNAs (miRNAs) are key, post-transcriptional regulators of gene expression and have been implicated in almost every cellular process investigated thus far. However, their role in sleep, in particular the homeostatic aspect of sleep control, has received little attention. We here assessed the effects of sleep deprivation on the brain miRNA transcriptome in the mouse. Sleep deprivation affected miRNA expression in a brain-region specific manner. The forebrain expression of the miRNA miR-709 was affected the most and in situ analyses confirmed its robust increase throughout the brain, especially in the cerebral cortex and the hippocampus. The hippocampus was a major target of the sleep deprivation affecting 37 miRNAs compared to 52 in the whole forebrain. Moreover, independent from the sleep deprivation condition, miRNA expression was highly region-specific with 45% of all expressed miRNAs showing higher expression in hippocampus and 55% in cortex. Next we demonstrated that down-regulation of miRNAs in Com/c2o-expressing neurons of adult mice, through a conditional and inducible Dicer knockout mice model (cKO), results in an altered homeostatic response after sleep deprivation eight weeks following the tamoxifen-induced recombination. Dicer cKO mice showed a larger increase in the electro-encephalographic (EEG) marker of sleep pressure, EEG delta power, and a reduced Rapid Eye Movement sleep rebound, compared to controls, highlighting a functional role of miRNAs in sleep homeostasis. Beside a sleep phenotype, Dicer cKO mice developed an unexpected, severe obesity phenotype associated with hyperphagia and altered metabolism. Even more surprisingly, after reaching maximum body weight 5 weeks after tamoxifen injection, obese cKO mice spontaneously started losing weight as rapidly as it was gained. Brain transcriptome analyses in obese mice identified several obesity-related pathways (e.g. leptin, somatostatin, and nemo-like kinase signaling), as well as genes involved in feeding and appetite (e.g. Pmch, Neurotensin). A gene cluster with anti-correlated expression in the cerebral cortex of post-obese compared to obese mice was enriched for synaptic plasticity pathways. While other studies have identified a role for miRNAs in obesity, we here present a unique model that allows for the study of processes involved in reversing obesity. Moreover, our study identified the cortex as a brain area important for body weight homeostasis. Together, these observations strongly suggest a role for miRNAs in the maintenance of homeostatic processes in the mouse, and support the hypothesis of a tight relationship between sleep and metabolism at a molecular - Les micro-ARNS (miARNs) sont des régulateurs post-transcriptionnels de l'expression des gènes, impliqués dans la quasi-totalité des processus cellulaires. Cependant, leur rôle dans la régulation du sommeil, et en particulier dans le maintien de l'homéostasie du sommeil, n'a reçu que très peu d'attention jusqu'à présent. Dans cette étude, nous avons étudié les conséquences d'une privation de sommeil sur l'expression cérébrale des miARNs chez la souris, et observé des changements dans l'expression de nombreux miARNs. Dans le cerveau antérieur, miR-709 est le miARN le plus affecté par la perte de sommeil, en particulier dans le cortex cérébral et l'hippocampe. L'hippocampe est la région la plus touchée avec 37 miARNs changés comparés à 52 dans le cerveau entier. Par ailleurs, indépendamment de la privation de sommeil, certains miARNs sont spécifiquement enrichis dans certaines aires cérébrales, 45% des miARNs étant surexprimés dans l'hippocampe contre 55% dans le cortex. Dans une seconde étude, nous avons observé que la délétion de DICER, enzyme essentielle à la biosynthèse des miARNs, et la perte subséquente des miARNs dans les neurones exprimant la protéine CAMK2a altère la réponse homéostatique à une privation de sommeil, 8 semaines après l'induction de la recombinaison génétique par le tamoxifen. Les souris sans Dicer (cKO) ont une plus large augmentation de l'EEG delta power, le principal marqueur électro-encéphalographique du besoin de sommeil, comparée aux contrôles, ainsi qu'un rebond en sommeil paradoxal plus petit. De façon surprenante, les souris Dicer cKO développent une obésité rapide, sévère et transitoire, associée à de l'hyperphagie et une altération de leur métabolisme énergétique. Après avoir atteint un pic maximal d'obésité, les souris cKO entrent spontanément dans une période de perte de poids rapide. L'analyse du transcriptome cérébral des souris obèses nous a permis d'identifier des voies associées à l'obésité (leptine, somatostatine et nemo-like kinase), et à la prise alimentaire (Pmch, Neurotensin), tandis que celui des souris post-obèses a révélé un groupe de gènes liés à la plasticité synaptique. Au-delà des nombreux modèles d'obésité existant chez la souris, notre étude présente un modèle unique permettant d'étudier les mécanismes sous-jacent la perte de poids. De plus, nous avons mis en évidence un rôle important du cortex cérébral dans le maintien de la balance énergétique. En conclusion, toutes ces observations soutiennent l'idée que les miARNs sont des régulateurs cruciaux dans le maintien des processus homéostatiques et confortent l'hypothèse d'une étroite relation moléculaire entre le sommeil et le métabolisme.

Homer1a is a core brain molecular correlate of sleep loss.

Sleep is regulated by a homeostatic process that determines its need and by a circadian process that determines its timing. By using sleep deprivation and transcriptome profiling in inbred mouse strains, we show that genetic background affects susceptibility to sleep loss at the transcriptional level in a tissue-dependent manner. In the brain, Homer1a expression best reflects the response to sleep loss. Time-course gene expression analysis suggests that 2,032 brain transcripts are under circadian control. However, only 391 remain rhythmic when mice are sleep-deprived at four time points around the clock, suggesting that most diurnal changes in gene transcription are, in fact, sleep-wake-dependent. By generating a transgenic mouse line, we show that in Homer1-expressing cells specifically, apart from Homer1a, three other activity-induced genes (Ptgs2, Jph3, and Nptx2) are overexpressed after sleep loss. All four genes play a role in recovery from glutamate-induced neuronal hyperactivity. The consistent activation of Homer1a suggests a role for sleep in intracellular calcium homeostasis for protecting and recovering from the neuronal activation imposed by wakefulness.

A human MYBPC3 mutation appearing about 10 centuries ago results in a hypertrophic cardiomyopathy with delayed onset, moderate evolution but with a risk of sudden death.

BACKGROUND: Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy (HCM) is a genetically heterogeneous disease. One specific mutation in the MYBPC3 gene is highly prevalent in center east of France giving an opportunity to define the clinical profile of this specific mutation. METHODS: HCM probands were screened for mutation in the MYH7, MYBPC3, TNNT2 and TNNI3 genes. Carriers of the MYBPC3 IVS20-2A>G mutation were genotyped with 8 microsatellites flanking this gene. The age of this MYBPC3 mutation was inferred with the software ESTIAGE. The age at first symptom, diagnosis, first complication, first severe complication and the rate of sudden death were compared between carriers of the IVS20-2 mutation (group A) and carriers of all other mutations (group B) using time to event curves and log rank test. RESULTS: Out of 107 HCM probands, 45 had a single heterozygous mutation in one of the 4 tested sarcomeric genes including 9 patients with the MYBPC3 IVS20-2A>G mutation. The IVS20-2 mutation in these 9 patients and their 25 mutation carrier relatives was embedded in a common haplotype defined after genotyping 4 polymorphic markers on each side of the MYBPC3 gene. This result supports the hypothesis of a common ancestor. Furthermore, we evaluated that the mutation occurred about 47 generations ago, approximately at the 10th century.We then compared the clinical profile of the IVS20-2 mutation carriers (group A) and the carriers of all other mutations (group B). Age at onset of symptoms was similar in the 34 group A cases and the 73 group B cases but group A cases were diagnosed on average 15 years later (log rank test p = 0.022). Age of first complication and first severe complication was delayed in group A vs group B cases but the prevalence of sudden death and age at death was similar in both groups. CONCLUSION: A founder mutation arising at about the 10th century in the MYBPC3 gene accounts for 8.4% of all HCM in center east France and results in a cardiomyopathy starting late and evolving slowly but with an apparent risk of sudden death similar to other sarcomeric mutations.

The Rank Lecture: Has imaging told us anything new about human visual organisation?

The functional architecture of the occipital cortex is being studied with increasing detail. Functional and structural MR based imaging are altering views about the organisation of the human visual system. Recent advances have ranged from comparative studies with non-human primates to predictive scanning. The latter multivariate technique describes with sub-voxel resolution patterns of activity that are characteristic of specific visual experiences. One can deduce what a subject experienced visually from the pattern of cortical activity recorded. The challenge for the future is to understand visual functions in terms of cerebral computations at a mesoscopic level of description and to relate this information to electrophysiology. The principal medical application of this new knowledge has focused to a large extent on plasticity and the capacity for functional reorganisation. Crossmodality visual-sensory interactions and cross-correlations between visual and other cerebral areas in the resting state are areas of considerable current interest. The lecture will review findings over the last two decades and reflect on possible roles for imaging studies in the future.

Evolution of the clinical and epidemiological knowledge about Chagas disease 90 years after its discovery

Three different periods may be considered in the evolution of knowledge about the clinical and epidemiological aspects of Chagas disease since its discovery: (a) early period concerning the studies carried out by Carlos Chagas in Lassance with the collaboration of other investigators of the Manguinhos School. At that time the disease was described and the parasite, transmitters and reservoirs were studied. The coexistence of endemic goiter in the same region generated some confusion about the clinical forms of the disease; (b) second period involving uncertainty and the description of isolated cases, which lasted until the 1940 decade. Many acute cases were described during this period and the disease was recognized in many Latin American countries. Particularly important were the studies of the Argentine Mission of Regional Pathology Studies, which culminated with the description of the Romaña sign in the 1930 decade, facilitating the diagnosis of the early phase of the disease. However, the chronic phase, which was the most important, continued to be difficult to recognize; (c) period of consolidation of knowledge and recognition of the importance of Chagas disease. Studies conducted by Laranja, Dias and Nóbrega in Bambuí updated the description of Chagas heart disease made by Carlos Chagas and Eurico Villela. From then on, the disease was more easily recognized, especially with the emphasis on the use of a serologic diagnosis; (d) period of enlargement of knowledges on the disease. The studies on denervation conducted in Ribeirão Preto by Fritz Köberle starting in the 1950 decade led to a better understanding of the relations between Chagas disease and megaesophagus and other visceral megas detected in endemic areas.

Food Security on the island of Ireland: are we sleep walking into a crisis?

IPH has developed a discussion paper on food security on the island. This makes the case that health is and needs to be central to food and agricultural policy. Population health, food systems and agricultural production are intimately linked.  A clear framework on food security is needed in both parts of the island of Ireland and this offers a key opportunity for cooperation. This article has been published in the latest edition of The Journal of Cross Border Studies in Ireland - No 6 launched on 8 March 2011.

Narcolepsy and familial advanced sleep-phase syndrome: molecular genetics of sleep disorders.

Sleep disorders are very prevalent and represent an emerging worldwide epidemic. However, research into the molecular genetics of sleep disorders remains surprisingly one of the least active fields. Nevertheless, rapid progress is being made in several prototypical disorders, leading recently to the identification of the molecular pathways underlying narcolepsy and familial advanced sleep-phase syndrome. Since the first reports of spontaneous and induced loss-of-function mutations leading to hypocretin deficiency in human and animal models of narcolepsy, the role of this novel neurotransmission pathway in sleep and several other behaviors has gained extensive interest. Also, very recent studies using an animal model of familial advanced sleep-phase syndrome shed new light on the regulation of circadian rhythms.

A non-circadian role for clock-genes in sleep homeostasis: a strain comparison.

BACKGROUND: We have previously reported that the expression of circadian clock-genes increases in the cerebral cortex after sleep deprivation (SD) and that the sleep rebound following SD is attenuated in mice deficient for one or more clock-genes. We hypothesized that besides generating circadian rhythms, clock-genes also play a role in the homeostatic regulation of sleep. Here we follow the time course of the forebrain changes in the expression of the clock-genes period (per)-1, per2, and of the clock-controlled gene albumin D-binding protein (dbp) during a 6 h SD and subsequent recovery sleep in three inbred strains of mice for which the homeostatic sleep rebound following SD differs. We reasoned that if clock genes are functionally implicated in sleep homeostasis then the SD-induced changes in gene expression should vary according to the genotypic differences in the sleep rebound. RESULTS: In all three strains per expression was increased when animals were kept awake but the rate of increase during the SD as well as the relative increase in per after 6 h SD were highest in the strain for which the sleep rebound was smallest; i.e., DBA/2J (D2). Moreover, whereas in the other two strains per1 and per2 reverted to control levels with recovery sleep, per2 expression specifically, remained elevated in D2 mice. dbp expression increased during the light period both during baseline and during SD although levels were reduced during the latter condition compared to baseline. In contrast to per2, dbp expression reverted to control levels with recovery sleep in D2 only, whereas in the two other strains expression remained decreased. CONCLUSION: These findings support and extend our previous findings that clock genes in the forebrain are implicated in the homeostatic regulation of sleep and suggest that sustained, high levels of per2 expression may negatively impact recovery sleep.

Some methodological reflections about the study of religions on video sharing websites

This article offers an overview of methodological difficulties that arise in the study of religions on video sharing websites (VSW). We suggest how to put these difficulties in perspective and how to overcome them. A typology lists the various forms of religions represented on this type of website. We will also try to understand why some religious groups have created their own video sharing websites. Finally we will give possible interpretations of this phenomenon and suggest some ways to use this type of material in academic research and teaching about religions. Cet article propose une vue d'ensemble des difficultés méthodologiques rencontrées dans l'étude des religions sur les sites web de partage de vidéos. Il propose des pistes pour relativiser et surmonter ces difficultés. Une typologie présente les différentes formes sous lesquelles on trouve des religions dans ce type de sites web. Nous tentons aussi de comprendre pourquoi certains groupes religieux ont créé leurs propres sites de partages de vidéos. Enfin, nous donnerons des possibles interprétations du phénomène et suggérerons comment on pourrait utiliser de ce type de matériel dans la recherche et l'enseignement académiques sur les religions.