Simulating maize yield in sub-tropical conditions of southern Brazil using Glam model

The objective of this work was to evaluate the feasibility of simulating maize yield in a sub‑tropical region of southern Brazil using the general large area model (Glam). A 16‑year time series of daily weather data were used. The model was adjusted and tested as an alternative for simulating maize yield at small and large spatial scales. Simulated and observed grain yields were highly correlated (r above 0.8; p<0.01) at large scales (greater than 100,000 km2), with variable and mostly lower correlations (r from 0.65 to 0.87; p<0.1) at small spatial scales (lower than 10,000 km2). Large area models can contribute to monitoring or forecasting regional patterns of variability in maize production in the region, providing a basis for agricultural decision making, and Glam‑Maize is one of the alternatives.

On the (un)-ambiguity of adjectival modification in Spanish determiner phrases: informing debates on the mental representations of L2 syntax.

This study contributes to a central debate within contemporary generative second language (L2) theorizing: the extent to which adult learners are (un)able to acquire new functional features that result in a L2 grammar that is mentally structured like the native target (see White, 2003). The adult acquisition of L2 nominal phi-features is explored, with focus on the syntactic and semantic reflexes in the related domain of adjective placement in two experimental groups: English-speaking intermediate (n = 21) and advanced (n = 24) learners of Spanish, as compared to a native-speaker control group (n = 15). Results show that, on some of the tasks, the intermediate L2 learners appear to have acquired the syntactic properties of the Spanish determiner phrase but, on other tasks, to show some delay with the semantic reflexes of prenominal and postnominal adjectives. Crucially, however, our data demonstrate full convergence by all advanced learners and thus provide evidence in contra the predictions of representational deficit accounts (e.g., Hawkins & Chan, 1997; Hawkins & Franceschina, 2004; Hawkins & Hattori, 2006).

The kinetics of αIIbβ3 activation determines the size and stability of thrombi in mice: implications for antiplatelet therapy.

Two major pathways contribute to Ras-proximate-1-mediated integrin activation in stimulated platelets. Calcium and diacyglycerol-regulated guanine nucleotide exchange factor I (CalDAG-GEFI, RasGRP2) mediates the rapid but reversible activation of integrin αIIbβ3, while the adenosine diphosphate receptor P2Y12, the target for antiplatelet drugs like clopidogrel, facilitates delayed but sustained integrin activation. To establish CalDAG-GEFI as a target for antiplatelet therapy, we compared how each pathway contributes to thrombosis and hemostasis in mice. Ex vivo, thrombus formation at arterial or venous shear rates was markedly reduced in CalDAG-GEFI(-/-) blood, even in the presence of exogenous adenosine diphosphate and thromboxane A(2). In vivo, thrombosis was virtually abolished in arterioles and arteries of CalDAG-GEFI(-/-) mice, while small, hemostatically active thrombi formed in venules. Specific deletion of the C1-like domain of CalDAG-GEFI in circulating platelets also led to protection from thrombus formation at arterial flow conditions, while it only marginally increased blood loss in mice. In comparison, thrombi in the micro- and macrovasculature of clopidogrel-treated wild-type mice grew rapidly and frequently embolized but were hemostatically inactive. Together, these data suggest that inhibition of the catalytic or the C1 regulatory domain in CalDAG-GEFI will provide strong protection from athero-thrombotic complications while maintaining a better safety profile than P2Y12 inhibitors like clopidogrel.

Cognitive representation of colour in bilinguals: the case of Greek blues

A number of recent studies demonstrate that bilinguals with languages that differ in grammatical and lexical categories may shift their cognitive representation of those categories towards that of monolingual speakers of their second language. The current paper extended that investigation to the domain of colour in Greek–English bilinguals with different levels of bilingualism, and English monolinguals. Greek differentiates the blue region of colour space into a darker shade called ble and a lighter shade called ghalazio. Results showed a semantic shift of category prototypes with level of bilingualism and acculturation, while the way bilinguals judged the perceptual similarity between within- and cross-category stimulus pairs depended strongly on the availability of the relevant colour terms in semantic memory, and the amount of time spent in the L2-speaking country. These results suggest that cognition is tightly linked to semantic memory for specific linguistic categories, and to cultural immersion in the L2-speaking country.

Language and thought in bilinguals: the case of grammatical number and nonverbal classification preferences

Recent research shows that speakers of languages with obligatory plural marking (English) preferentially categorize objects based on common shape, whereas speakers of nonplural-marking classifier languages (Yucatec and Japanese) preferentially categorize objects based on common material. The current study extends that investigation to the domain of bilingualism. Japanese and English monolinguals, and Japanese–English bilinguals were asked to match novel objects based on either common shape or color. Results showed that English monolinguals selected shape significantly more than Japanese monolinguals, whereas the bilinguals shifted their cognitive preferences as a function of their second language proficiency. The implications of these findings for conceptual representation and cognitive processing in bilinguals are discussed.

Conspicuous redemption? Reflections on the promises and perils of the 'celebritization' of climate change

With rising public awareness of climate change, celebrities have become an increasingly important community of non nation-state ‘actors’ influencing discourse and action, thereby comprising an emergent climate science–policy–celebrity complex. Some feel that these amplified and prominent voices contribute to greater public understanding of climate change science, as well as potentially catalyze climate policy cooperation. However, critics posit that increased involvement from the entertainment industry has not served to influence substantive long-term advancements in these arenas; rather, it has instead reduced the politics of climate change to the domain of fashion and fad, devoid of political and public saliency. Through tracking media coverage in Australia, Canada, the United States, and United Kingdom, we map out the terrain of a ‘Politicized Celebrity System’ in attempts to cut through dualistic characterizations of celebrity involvement in politics. We develop a classification system of the various types of climate change celebrity activities, and situate movements in contemporary consumer- and spectacle-driven carbon-based society. Through these analyses, we place dynamic and contested interactions in a spatially and temporally-sensitive ‘Cultural Circuits of Climate Change Celebrities’ model. In so doing, first we explore how these newly ‘authorized’ speakers and ‘experts’ might open up spaces in the public sphere and the science/policy nexus through ‘celebritization’ effects. Second, we examine how the celebrity as the ‘heroic individual’ seeking ‘conspicuous redemption’ may focus climate change actions through individualist frames. Overall, this paper explores potential promises, pitfalls and contradictions of this increasingly entrenched set of ‘agents’ in the cultural politics of climate change. Thus, as a form of climate change action, we consider whether it is more effective to ‘plant’ celebrities instead of trees.

Late Quaternary fire regimes of Australasia

We have compiled 223 sedimentary charcoal records from Australasia in order to examine the temporal and spatial variability of fire regimes during the Late Quaternary. While some of these records cover more than a full glacial cycle, here we focus on the last 70,000 years when the number of individual records in the compilation allows more robust conclusions. On orbital time scales, fire in Australasia predominantly reflects climate, with colder periods characterized by less and warmer intervals by more biomass burning. The composite record for the region also shows considerable millennial-scale variability during the last glacial interval (73.5–14.7 ka). Within the limits of the dating uncertainties of individual records, the variability shown by the composite charcoal record is more similar to the form, number and timing of Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles as observed in Greenland ice cores than to the variability expressed in the Antarctic ice-core record. The composite charcoal record suggests increased biomass burning in the Australasian region during Greenland Interstadials and reduced burning during Greenland Stadials. Millennial-scale variability is characteristic of the composite record of the sub-tropical high pressure belt during the past 21 ka, but the tropics show a somewhat simpler pattern of variability with major peaks in biomass burning around 15 ka and 8 ka. There is no distinct change in fire regime corresponding to the arrival of humans in Australia at 50 ± 10 ka and no correlation between archaeological evidence of increased human activity during the past 40 ka and the history of biomass burning. However, changes in biomass burning in the last 200 years may have been exacerbated or influenced by humans.

Atmospheric blocking in a high resolution climate model: influences of mean state, orography and eddy forcing

An underestimate of atmospheric blocking occurrence is a well-known limitation of many climate models. This article presents an analysis of Northern Hemisphere winter blocking in an atmospheric model with increased horizontal resolution. European blocking frequency increases with model resolution, and this results from an improvement in the atmospheric patterns of variability as well as a simple improvement in the mean state. There is some evidence that the transient eddy momentum forcing of European blocks is increased at high resolution, which could account for this. However, it is also shown that the increase in resolution of the orography is needed to realise the improvement in blocking, consistent with the increase in height of the Rocky Mountains acting to increase the tilt of the Atlantic jet stream and giving higher mean geopotential heights over northern Europe. Blocking frequencies in the Pacific sector are also increased with atmospheric resolution, but in this case the improvement in orography actually leads to a decrease in blocking

EOF analysis of three records of sea-ice concentration spanning the last 30 years

Several continuous observational datasets of Artic sea-ice concentration are currently available that cover the period since the advent of routine satellite observations. We report on a comparison of three sea-ice concentration datasets. These are the National Ice Center charts, and two passive microwave radiometer datasets derived using different approaches: the NASA team and Bootstrap algorithms. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analyses were employed to compare modes of variability and their consistency between the datasets. The analysis was motivated by the need for a reliable, realistic sea ice climatology for use in climate model simulations, for which both the variability and absolute values of extent and concentration are important. We found that, while there are significant discrepancies in absolute concentrations, the major modes of variability derived from all records were essentially the same.

Rapid Keck Spectroscopy of Cataclysmic Variables

We present an analysis of Rapid Keck Spectroscopy of the CVs AM Her (polar) and SS Cyg (dwarf nova). We decompose the spectra into constant and variable components and identify different types of variability in AM Her with different characteristic timescales. The variable flickering component of the accretion disc flux and the observational characteristics of a small flare in SS Cyg are isolated.

Participatory research approaches in the development of improved management practices in indigenous chickens production systems with smallholder farmers in Kenya

This thesis is concerned with development of improved management practices in indigenous chicken production systems in a research process that includes participatory approaches with smallholder farmers and other stakeholders in Kenya. The research process involved a wide range of activities that included on-station experiments, field surveys, stakeholder consultations in workshops, seminars and visits, and on-farm farmer participatory research to evaluate the effect of some improved management interventions on production performance of indigenous chickens. The participatory research was greatly informed from collective experiences and lessons of the previous activities. The on-station studies focused on hatching, growth and nutritional characteristics of the indigenous chickens. Four research publications from these studies are included in this thesis. Quantitative statistical analyses were applied and they involved use of growth models estimated with non-linear regressions for the growth characteristics, chi-square determinations to investigate differences among different reciprocal crosses of indigenous chickens and general linear models and covariance determination for the nutrition study. The on-station studies brought greater understanding of performance and production characteristics of indigenous chickens and the influence of management practices on these characteristics. The field surveys and stakeholder consultations helped in understanding the overarching issues affecting the productivity of the indigenous chickens systems and their place in the livelihoods of smallholder farmers. These activities created strong networking opportunities with stakeholders from a wide spectrum. The on-farm farmer participatory research involved selection of 200 farmers in five regions followed by training and introduction of interventions on improved management practices which included housing, vaccination, deworming and feed supplementation. Implementation and monitoring was mainly done by individual farmers continuously for close to one and half years. Six quarterly visits to the farms were made by the research team to monitor and provide support for on-going project activities. The data collected has been analysed for 5 consecutive 3-monthly periods. Descriptive and inferential statistics were applied to analyse the data collected involving treatment applications, production characteristics and flock demography characteristics. Out of the 200 farmers initially selected, 173 had records on treatment applications and flock demography characteristics while 127 farmers had records on production characteristics. The demographic analysis with a dissimilarity index of flock size produced 7 distinct farm groups from among the 173 farms. Two of these farm groups were represented in similar numbers in each of the five regions. The research process also involved a number of dissemination and communication strategies that have brought the process and project outcomes into the domain of accessibility by wider readership locally and globally. These include workshops, seminars, field visits and consultations, local and international conferences, electronic conferencing, publications and personal communication via emailing and conventional posting. A number of research and development proposals were also developed based on the knowledge and experiences gained from the research process. The thesis captures the research process activities and outcomes in 8 chapters which include in ascending order – introduction, theoretical concepts underpinning FPR, research methodology and process, on-station research output, FPR descriptive statistical analysis, FPR inferential statistical analysis on production characteristics, FPR demographic analysis and conclusions. Various research approaches both quantitative and qualitative have been applied in the research process indicating the possibilities and importance of combining both systems for greater understanding of issues being studied. In our case, participatory studies of the improved management of indigenous chickens indicates their potential importance as livelihood assets for poor people.

Individual differences and the role of the L1 in L2 processing: an ERP investigation

This study used ERP (event-related potentials) to examine both the role of the L1 and the role of individual differences in the processing of agreement violations. Theories of L2 acquisition differ with regard to whether or not native-like acquisition of L2 features is possible (Schwartz and Sprouse, 1994, 1996; Tsimpli and Mastropavlou, 2007), and the results of previous ERP studies are inconsistent when it comes to whether or not native-like processing is observed in response to L2 agreement violations (e.g., Sabourin, 2003; Tokowicz and MacWhinney, 2005). Furthermore, studies of learners in early stages of L2 acquisition have found variability in the emergence of native-like responses (e.g., McLaughlin et al., 2010; Tanner et al., 2009), but sources of variability have not been investigated. The current study examines responses to gender and number agreement violations in English-speaking learners of Spanish (n=24). Stimuli targeted agreement in three conditions: subject-verb agreement (el barco flota/*flotan), which is similar in Spanish and English; number agreement on adjectival predicates (la isla rocosa/*rocosas), a context in which agreement is not instantiated in English; and gender agreement on adjectival predicates (la isla rocosa/*rocoso), which is unique to Spanish. Grammaticality judgments and ERP responses were also tested for correlations with aptitude scores on the Modern Languages Aptitude Test (MLAT; Carroll and Sapon, 1959) and the Raven Advanced Progressive Matrices (Raven, 1965). Results are in line with theories that claim native-like processing is acquirable, since learners demonstrated similar ERP responses to a control group of native Spanish-speakers (n=8) with regard to all three agreement types. Additionally, the MLAT (but not the Raven) was significantly correlated with sensitivity to number violations, both in terms of grammaticality judgments and ERP amplitudes, indicating a role for verbal but not nonverbal aptitude in L2 processing.

A mathematical model of crystallization in an emulsion

A mathematical model incorporating many of the important processes at work in the crystallization of emulsions is presented. The model describes nucleation within the discontinuous domain of an emulsion, precipitation in the continuous domain, transport of monomers between the two domains, and formation and subsequent growth of crystals in both domains. The model is formulated as an autonomous system of nonlinear, coupled ordinary differential equations. The description of nucleation and precipitation is based upon the Becker–Döring equations of classical nucleation theory. A particular feature of the model is that the number of particles of all species present is explicitly conserved; this differs from work that employs Arrhenius descriptions of nucleation rate. Since the model includes many physical effects, it is analyzed in stages so that the role of each process may be understood. When precipitation occurs in the continuous domain, the concentration of monomers falls below the equilibrium concentration at the surface of the drops of the discontinuous domain. This leads to a transport of monomers from the drops into the continuous domain that are then incorporated into crystals and nuclei. Since the formation of crystals is irreversible and their subsequent growth inevitable, crystals forming in the continuous domain effectively act as a sink for monomers “sucking” monomers from the drops. In this case, numerical calculations are presented which are consistent with experimental observations. In the case in which critical crystal formation does not occur, the stationary solution is found and a linear stability analysis is performed. Bifurcation diagrams describing the loci of stationary solutions, which may be multiple, are numerically calculated.

Representation of model error in a convective-scale ensemble prediction system

In this paper ensembles of forecasts (of up to six hours) are studied from a convection-permitting model with a representation of model error due to unresolved processes. The ensemble prediction system (EPS) used is an experimental convection-permitting version of the UK Met Office’s 24- member Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS). The method of representing model error variability, which perturbs parameters within the model’s parameterisation schemes, has been modified and we investigate the impact of applying this scheme in different ways. These are: a control ensemble where all ensemble members have the same parameter values; an ensemble where the parameters are different between members, but fixed in time; and ensembles where the parameters are updated randomly every 30 or 60 min. The choice of parameters and their ranges of variability have been determined from expert opinion and parameter sensitivity tests. A case of frontal rain over the southern UK has been chosen, which has a multi-banded rainfall structure. The consequences of including model error variability in the case studied are mixed and are summarised as follows. The multiple banding, evident in the radar, is not captured for any single member. However, the single band is positioned in some members where a secondary band is present in the radar. This is found for all ensembles studied. Adding model error variability with fixed parameters in time does increase the ensemble spread for near-surface variables like wind and temperature, but can actually decrease the spread of the rainfall. Perturbing the parameters periodically throughout the forecast does not further increase the spread and exhibits “jumpiness” in the spread at times when the parameters are perturbed. Adding model error variability gives an improvement in forecast skill after the first 2–3 h of the forecast for near-surface temperature and relative humidity. For precipitation skill scores, adding model error variability has the effect of improving the skill in the first 1–2 h of the forecast, but then of reducing the skill after that. Complementary experiments were performed where the only difference between members was the set of parameter values (i.e. no initial condition variability). The resulting spread was found to be significantly less than the spread from initial condition variability alone.

Objective determination of feature resolution in two sea surface temperature analyses

Considerable effort is presently being devoted to producing high-resolution sea surface temperature (SST) analyses with a goal of spatial grid resolutions as low as 1 km. Because grid resolution is not the same as feature resolution, a method is needed to objectively determine the resolution capability and accuracy of SST analysis products. Ocean model SST fields are used in this study as simulated “true” SST data and subsampled based on actual infrared and microwave satellite data coverage. The subsampled data are used to simulate sampling errors due to missing data. Two different SST analyses are considered and run using both the full and the subsampled model SST fields, with and without additional noise. The results are compared as a function of spatial scales of variability using wavenumber auto- and cross-spectral analysis. The spectral variance at high wavenumbers (smallest wavelengths) is shown to be attenuated relative to the true SST because of smoothing that is inherent to both analysis procedures. Comparisons of the two analyses (both having grid sizes of roughly ) show important differences. One analysis tends to reproduce small-scale features more accurately when the high-resolution data coverage is good but produces more spurious small-scale noise when the high-resolution data coverage is poor. Analysis procedures can thus generate small-scale features with and without data, but the small-scale features in an SST analysis may be just noise when high-resolution data are sparse. Users must therefore be skeptical of high-resolution SST products, especially in regions where high-resolution (~5 km) infrared satellite data are limited because of cloud cover.