Compositional analysis of bivariate discrete probabilities

A joint distribution of two discrete random variables with finite support can be displayed as a two way table of probabilities adding to one. Assume that this table hasn rows and m columns and all probabilities are non-null. This kind of table can beseen as an element in the simplex of n · m parts. In this context, the marginals areidentified as compositional amalgams, conditionals (rows or columns) as subcompositions. Also, simplicial perturbation appears as Bayes theorem. However, the Euclideanelements of the Aitchison geometry of the simplex can also be translated into the tableof probabilities: subspaces, orthogonal projections, distances.Two important questions are addressed: a) given a table of probabilities, which isthe nearest independent table to the initial one? b) which is the largest orthogonalprojection of a row onto a column? or, equivalently, which is the information in arow explained by a column, thus explaining the interaction? To answer these questionsthree orthogonal decompositions are presented: (1) by columns and a row-wise geometric marginal, (2) by rows and a columnwise geometric marginal, (3) by independenttwo-way tables and fully dependent tables representing row-column interaction. Animportant result is that the nearest independent table is the product of the two (rowand column)-wise geometric marginal tables. A corollary is that, in an independenttable, the geometric marginals conform with the traditional (arithmetic) marginals.These decompositions can be compared with standard log-linear models.Key words: balance, compositional data, simplex, Aitchison geometry, composition,orthonormal basis, arithmetic and geometric marginals, amalgam, dependence measure,contingency table

Using 3D surface datasets to understand landslide evolution: From analogue models to real case study

Early detection of landslide surface deformation with 3D remote sensing techniques, as TLS, has become a great challenge during last decade. To improve our understanding of landslide deformation, a series of analogue simulation have been carried out on non-rigid bodies coupled with 3D digitizer. All these experiments have been carried out under controlled conditions, as water level and slope angle inclination. We were able to follow 3D surface deformation suffered by complex landslide bodies from precursory deformation still larger failures. These experiments were the basis for the development of a new algorithm for the quantification of surface deformation using automatic tracking method on discrete points of the slope surface. To validate the algorithm, comparisons were made between manually obtained results and algorithm surface displacement results. Outputs will help in understanding 3D deformation during pre-failure stages and failure mechanisms, which are fundamental aspects for future implementation of 3D remote sensing techniques in early warning systems.

Drugs Associated with Hepatotoxicity and their Reporting Frequency of Liver Adverse Events in VigiBase (TM) Unified List Based on International Collaborative Work

BACKGROUND Challenges exist in the clinical diagnosis of drug-induced liver injury (DILI) and in obtaining information on hepatotoxicity in humans. OBJECTIVE (i) To develop a unified list that combines drugs incriminated in well vetted or adjudicated DILI cases from many recognized sources and drugs that have been subjected to serious regulatory actions due to hepatotoxicity; and (ii) to supplement the drug list with data on reporting frequencies of liver events in the WHO individual case safety report database (VigiBase). DATA SOURCES AND EXTRACTION (i) Drugs identified as causes of DILI at three major DILI registries; (ii) drugs identified as causes of drug-induced acute liver failure (ALF) in six different data sources, including major ALF registries and previously published ALF studies; and (iii) drugs identified as being subjected to serious governmental regulatory actions due to their hepatotoxicity in Europe or the US were collected. The reporting frequency of adverse events was determined using VigiBase, computed as Empirical Bayes Geometric Mean (EBGM) with 90% confidence interval for two customized terms, 'overall liver injury' and 'ALF'. EBGM of >or=2 was considered a disproportional increase in reporting frequency. The identified drugs were then characterized in terms of regional divergence, published case reports, serious regulatory actions, and reporting frequency of 'overall liver injury' and 'ALF' calculated from VigiBase. DATA SYNTHESIS After excluding herbs, supplements and alternative medicines, a total of 385 individual drugs were identified; 319 drugs were identified in the three DILI registries, 107 from the six ALF registries (or studies) and 47 drugs that were subjected to suspension or withdrawal in the US or Europe due to their hepatotoxicity. The identified drugs varied significantly between Spain, the US and Sweden. Of the 319 drugs identified in the DILI registries of adjudicated cases, 93.4% were found in published case reports, 1.9% were suspended or withdrawn due to hepatotoxicity and 25.7% were also identified in the ALF registries/studies. In VigiBase, 30.4% of the 319 drugs were associated with disproportionally higher reporting frequency of 'overall liver injury' and 83.1% were associated with at least one reported case of ALF. CONCLUSIONS This newly developed list of drugs associated with hepatotoxicity and the multifaceted analysis on hepatotoxicity will aid in causality assessment and clinical diagnosis of DILI and will provide a basis for further characterization of hepatotoxicity.

Disseny i implementació d'un sistema web de geolocalització i promoció d'events

Degut a la falta d'informació, de temps, no saber a on buscar. . . moltes vegades no ens assabentem, o ho fem massa tard, d'events als que ens hauria agradat assistir, com podrien ser concerts,conferències, activitats esportives, etc. L'objectiu d'aquest projecte serà aprofitar les capacitats de les xarxes socials per crear un lloc web que permeti enviar i geolocalitzar events que podran ser revisats i promoguts pels usuaris, de forma que es pugui suplir aquesta mancança. La solució implementada haurà de proporcionar les següents funcionalitats: enviament d'events (permetrà afegir les dades principals d'un event i geolocalitzar-lo en el mapa); organització de la informació (es disposarà de categories i metacategories per agrupar els events, a més d'un sistema d'etiquetes que facilitarà les cerques en el contingut del web); exploració dels events existents (mitjançant el mapa es podrà veure les dades de qualsevol event); sistema de votació (atorgarà la capacitat per poder decidir quina informació és més rellevant); agenda personal (servirà per registrar events i d'aquesta manera poder rebre notificacions que informin de canvis o simplement que serveixin com a recordatori); comunicació entre usuaris (es realitzarà a través de comentaris al peu dels events i/o d'un xat intern); sindicació web (distribuirà el contingut utilitzant l'estàndard RSS; disponibilitat d'una API simple (permetrà l'accés a certa informació des d'aplicacions externes)

Signifiant decrease in in-hospital mortality and major adverse cardiac events in Swiss STEMI patients between 2000 and December 2007

Rapport de synthèse : Objectifs : évaluer la survie intra-hospitalière des patients présentant un infarctus du myocarde avec sus-décalage du segment ST admis dans les hôpitaux suisses entre 2000 et 2007, et identifier les paramètres prédictifs de mortalité intra-hospitalière et d'événements cardio-vasculaires majeurs (infarctus, réinfarctus, attaque cérébrale). Méthode : utilisation des données du registre national suisse AMIS Plus (Acute Myocardial lnfarction and Unstable Angina in Switzerland). Tous les patients admis pour un infarctus du myocarde avec sus-décalage du segment ST ou bloc de branche gauche nouveau dans un hôpital suisse participant au registre entre janvier 2000 et décembre 2007 ont été inclus. Résultats: nous avons étudié 12 026 patients présentant un infarctus du myocarde avec sus-décalage du segment ST ou bloc de branche gauche nouveau admis dans 54 hôpitaux suisses différents. L'âge moyen est de 64+-13 ans et 73% des patients inclus sont des hommes. L'incidence de mortalité intra-hospitalière est de 7.6% en 2000 et de 6% en 2007. Le taux de réinfarctus diminue de 3.7% en 2000 à 0.9% en 2007. L'utilisation de médicaments thrombolytiques chute de 40.2% à 2% entre 2000 et 2007. Les paramètres prédictifs cliniques de mortalité sont : un âge> 65-ans, une classe Killips Ill ou IV, un diabète et un infarctus du myocarde avec onde Q (au moment de la présentation). Les patients traités par revascularisation coronarienne percutanée ont un taux inférieur de mortalité et de réinfarctus (3.9% versus 11.2% et 1.1% versus 3.1%, respectivement, p<0.001) sur la période de temps étudiée. Le nombre de patients traités par revascularisation coronarienne percutanée augmente de 43% en 2000 à 85% en 2007. Les patients admis dans les hôpitaux bénéficiant d'une salle de cathétérisme cardiaque ont un taux de mortalité plus bas que les patients hopitalisés dans les centres sans salle de cathétérisme cardiaque. Mais les caractéristiques démographiques de ces deux populations sont très différentes. La mortalité intra-hospitalière ainsi que le taux de réinfarctus diminuent significativement au cours y de la période étudiée, parallèlement à l'augmentation de |'utilisation de la revascularisation coronarienne percutanée. La revascularisation coronarienne percutanée est le paramètre prédictif de survie le plus important. Conclusion: la mortalité intra-hospitalière et le taux de réinfarctus du myocarde ont diminué de manière significative chez les patients souffrant d'un infarctus du myocarde avec sus-décalage du segment ST au cours de ces sept dernières années, parallèlement à l'augmentation significative de la revascularisation coronarienne percutanée en plus de la thérapie médicamenteuse. La survie n'est È pas liée au lieu d'hospitalisation mais à l'accès à une revascularisation coronarienne percutanée.

Event-free survival at 24 months is a robust end point for disease-related outcome in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma treated with immunochemotherapy.

PURPOSE: Studies of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) are typically evaluated by using a time-to-event approach with relapse, re-treatment, and death commonly used as the events. We evaluated the timing and type of events in newly diagnosed DLBCL and compared patient outcome with reference population data. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients with newly diagnosed DLBCL treated with immunochemotherapy were prospectively enrolled onto the University of Iowa/Mayo Clinic Specialized Program of Research Excellence Molecular Epidemiology Resource (MER) and the North Central Cancer Treatment Group NCCTG-N0489 clinical trial from 2002 to 2009. Patient outcomes were evaluated at diagnosis and in the subsets of patients achieving event-free status at 12 months (EFS12) and 24 months (EFS24) from diagnosis. Overall survival was compared with age- and sex-matched population data. Results were replicated in an external validation cohort from the Groupe d'Etude des Lymphomes de l'Adulte (GELA) Lymphome Non Hodgkinien 2003 (LNH2003) program and a registry based in Lyon, France. RESULTS: In all, 767 patients with newly diagnosed DLBCL who had a median age of 63 years were enrolled onto the MER and NCCTG studies. At a median follow-up of 60 months (range, 8 to 116 months), 299 patients had an event and 210 patients had died. Patients achieving EFS24 had an overall survival equivalent to that of the age- and sex-matched general population (standardized mortality ratio [SMR], 1.18; P = .25). This result was confirmed in 820 patients from the GELA study and registry in Lyon (SMR, 1.09; P = .71). Simulation studies showed that EFS24 has comparable power to continuous EFS when evaluating clinical trials in DLBCL. CONCLUSION: Patients with DLBCL who achieve EFS24 have a subsequent overall survival equivalent to that of the age- and sex-matched general population. EFS24 will be useful in patient counseling and should be considered as an end point for future studies of newly diagnosed DLBCL.

Fatal and nonfatal AIDS and non-AIDS events in HIV-1-positive individuals with high CD4 cell counts according to viral load strata.

BACKGROUND: This study compared the incidence of fatal and nonfatal AIDS and non-AIDS events in HIV-positive individuals with a CD4 cell count more than 350  cells/μl among viral load strata: low (<500  copies/ml), intermediate (500-9999.9  copies/ml) and high (≥ 10000  copies/ml). METHODS: Individuals contributed person-years at risk if their most recent CD4 cell count was more than 350  cells/μl. Follow-up was censored if their CD4 cell count dropped below 350  cells/μl. Poisson regression analysis investigated the relationship between viraemia and the incidence of AIDS and non-AIDS events. RESULTS: Three hundred and fifty-four AIDS events occurred during 51 732  person-years of follow-up (PYFU), crude incidence rate of AIDS across the three strata was 0.53, 0.90 and 2.12 per 100 PYFU, respectively. After adjustment, a higher rate of AIDS was observed in individuals with moderate [incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1.44, 1.02-2.05, P = 0.03] and high viraemia had a higher rate (IRR 3.91, 2.89-5.89, P < 0.0001) compared with low viraemia. Five hundred and seventy-two non-AIDS events occurred during 43 784 PYFU, the crude incidence rates were 1.28, 1.52, and 1.38 per 100 PYFU, respectively. After adjustment, particularly for age, region of Europe and starting combination antiretroviral therapy, there was a 61% (IRR 1.61, 1.21-2.14, P = 0.001) and 66% (IRR 1.66, 1.17-2.32, P = 0.004) higher rate of non-AIDS in individuals with intermediate and high viraemia compared with low viraemia. CONCLUSION: In individuals with a CD4 cell count more than 350  cells/μl, an increased incidence of AIDS and a slightly increased incidence of non-AIDS was found in those with uncontrolled viral replication. The association with AIDS was clear and consistent. However, the association with non-AIDS was only apparent after adjustment and no differences were observed between intermediate and high viraemia.

Comparison of adverse events following immunization with pandemic influenza A (H1N1)pdm09 vaccine with or without adjuvant among health professionals in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

A vaccination campaign against pandemic influenza A (H1N1)pdm09 was held in Brazil in March 2010, using two types of monovalent split virus vaccines: an AS03-adjuvanted vaccine and a non-adjuvanted vaccine. We compared the reactogenicity of the vaccines in health professionals from a Clinical Research Institute in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil and there were no serious adverse events following immunization (AEFI) among the 494 subjects evaluated. The prevalence of any AEFI was higher in the AS03-adjuvanted vaccine at 2 h and 24 h post-vaccination [preva-lence ratio (PR): 2.05, confidence interval (CI) 95%: 1.55-2.71, PR: 3.42, CI 95%: 2.62-4.48, respectively]; however, there was no difference between the vaccines in the assessments conducted at seven and 21 days post-vaccination. The group receiving the AS03 post-adjuvanted vaccine had a higher frequency of local reactions at 2 h (PR: 3.01, CI 95%: 2.12-4.29), 24 h (PR: 4.57, CI 95%: 3.29-6.37) and seven days (PR: 6.05, CI 95%: 2.98-12.28) post-vaccination. We concluded that the two types of vaccines caused no serious AEFI in the studied population and the adjuvanted vaccine was more reactogenic, particularly in the 24 h following vaccination. This behaviour must be confirmed and better characterised by longitudinal studies in the general population.

Vaccination against human papillomavirus in Switzerland: simulation of the impact on infection rates.

OBJECTIVES: Human papillomavirus (HPV) is a sexually transmitted infection of particular interest because of its high prevalence rate and strong causal association with cervical cancer. Two prophylactic vaccines have been developed and different countries have made or will soon make recommendations for the vaccination of girls. Even if there is a consensus to recommend a vaccination before the beginning of sexual activity, there are, however, large discrepancies between countries concerning the perceived usefulness of a catch-up procedure and of boosters. The main objective of this article is to simulate the impact on different vaccination policies upon the mid- and long-term HPV 16/18 age-specific infection rates. METHODS: We developed an epidemiological model based on the susceptible-infective-recovered approach using Swiss data. The mid- and long-term impact of different vaccination scenarios was then compared. RESULTS: The generalization of a catch-up procedure is always beneficial, whatever its extent. Moreover, pending on the length of the protection offered by the vaccine, boosters will also be very useful. CONCLUSIONS: To be really effective, a vaccination campaign against HPV infection should at least include a catch-up to early reach a drop in HPV 16/18 prevalence, and maybe boosters. Otherwise, the protection insured for women in their 20s could be lower than expected, resulting in higher risks to later develop cervical cancer.

Combined simulation and mutagenesis analyses reveal the involvement of key residues for peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor alpha helix 12 dynamic behavior.

The dynamic properties of helix 12 in the ligand binding domain of nuclear receptors are a major determinant of AF-2 domain activity. We investigated the molecular and structural basis of helix 12 mobility, as well as the involvement of individual residues with regard to peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor alpha (PPARalpha) constitutive and ligand-dependent transcriptional activity. Functional assays of the activity of PPARalpha helix 12 mutants were combined with free energy molecular dynamics simulations. The agreement between the results from these approaches allows us to make robust claims concerning the mechanisms that govern helix 12 functions. Our data support a model in which PPARalpha helix 12 transiently adopts a relatively stable active conformation even in the absence of a ligand. This conformation provides the interface for the recruitment of a coactivator and results in constitutive activity. The receptor agonists stabilize this conformation and increase PPARalpha transcription activation potential. Finally, we disclose important functions of residues in PPARalpha AF-2, which determine the positioning of helix 12 in the active conformation in the absence of a ligand. Substitution of these residues suppresses PPARalpha constitutive activity, without changing PPARalpha ligand-dependent activation potential.