Protocol for the modeling the epidemiologic transition study: a longitudinal observational study of energy balance and change in body weight, diabetes and cardiovascular disease risk.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: The prevalence of obesity has increased in societies of all socio-cultural backgrounds. To date, guidelines set forward to prevent obesity have universally emphasized optimal levels of physical activity. However there are few empirical data to support the assertion that low levels of energy expenditure in activity is a causal factor in the current obesity epidemic are very limited. METHODS: The Modeling the Epidemiologic Transition Study (METS) is a cohort study designed to assess the association between physical activity levels and relative weight, weight gain and diabetes and cardiovascular disease risk in five population-based samples at different stages of economic development. Twenty-five hundred young adults, ages 25-45, were enrolled in the study; 500 from sites in Ghana, South Africa, Seychelles, Jamaica and the United States. At baseline, physical activity levels were assessed using accelerometry and a questionnaire in all participants and by doubly labeled water in a subsample of 75 per site. We assessed dietary intake using two separate 24-h recalls, body composition using bioelectrical impedance analysis, and health history, social and economic indicators by questionnaire. Blood pressure was measured and blood samples collected for measurement of lipids, glucose, insulin and adipokines. Full examination including physical activity using accelerometry, anthropometric data and fasting glucose will take place at 12 and 24 months. The distribution of the main variables and the associations between physical activity, independent of energy intake, glucose metabolism and anthropometric measures will be assessed using cross-section and longitudinal analysis within and between sites. DISCUSSION: METS will provide insight on the relative contribution of physical activity and diet to excess weight, age-related weight gain and incident glucose impairment in five populations' samples of young adults at different stages of economic development. These data should be useful for the development of empirically-based public health policy aimed at the prevention of obesity and associated chronic diseases.

Peacetime Violence in El Salvador and Honduras: A tale of two countries

The end of the Cold War did not bring about an end to violence in Central America. Today, so-called non-political violence continues to worsen. Academics and public policymakers are frequently influenced by the assumption that there is a causal relationship between the political violence of the 1980s and the non-political violence of today. By looking at the cases of El Salvador and Honduras, this working paper seeks to systematize existing claims about the causal relationship between past and present violence into two approaches. Our research shows that high levels of prolonged political violence, along with an abundance of firearms, can lead to high levels of prolonged non-political violence but not in the ways most often cited in existing literature. We propose a new model to better understand the connection between past and present violence and recommend indicators that can be used to measure variations in violence over time in contexts of protracted non-political violence.

Arthroskopie bei Hüftdysplasie [Arthroscopy in hip dysplasia]

[The causal treatment of a residual hip dysplasia consists of an acetabular reorientation osteotomy, the results of which, however, strongly depend on concomitant intra-articular lesions. The most important prognostic factor is the cartilage status. However, tears in the labrum and the ligament of the head of the femur may also be responsible for symptoms. Hip arthroscopy is a valuable tool for a precise diagnosis and simultaneous treatment of these lesions. However, as yet no results supporting this treatment algorithm have been published.]

When to initiate combined antiretroviral therapy to reduce mortality and AIDS-defining illness in HIV-infected persons in developed countries: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: Most clinical guidelines recommend that AIDS-free, HIV-infected persons with CD4 cell counts below 0.350 × 10(9) cells/L initiate combined antiretroviral therapy (cART), but the optimal CD4 cell count at which cART should be initiated remains a matter of debate. OBJECTIVE: To identify the optimal CD4 cell count at which cART should be initiated. DESIGN: Prospective observational data from the HIV-CAUSAL Collaboration and dynamic marginal structural models were used to compare cART initiation strategies for CD4 thresholds between 0.200 and 0.500 × 10(9) cells/L. SETTING: HIV clinics in Europe and the Veterans Health Administration system in the United States. PATIENTS: 20, 971 HIV-infected, therapy-naive persons with baseline CD4 cell counts at or above 0.500 × 10(9) cells/L and no previous AIDS-defining illnesses, of whom 8392 had a CD4 cell count that decreased into the range of 0.200 to 0.499 × 10(9) cells/L and were included in the analysis. MEASUREMENTS: Hazard ratios and survival proportions for all-cause mortality and a combined end point of AIDS-defining illness or death. RESULTS: Compared with initiating cART at the CD4 cell count threshold of 0.500 × 10(9) cells/L, the mortality hazard ratio was 1.01 (95% CI, 0.84 to 1.22) for the 0.350 threshold and 1.20 (CI, 0.97 to 1.48) for the 0.200 threshold. The corresponding hazard ratios were 1.38 (CI, 1.23 to 1.56) and 1.90 (CI, 1.67 to 2.15), respectively, for the combined end point of AIDS-defining illness or death. Limitations: CD4 cell count at cART initiation was not randomized. Residual confounding may exist. CONCLUSION: Initiation of cART at a threshold CD4 count of 0.500 × 10(9) cells/L increases AIDS-free survival. However, mortality did not vary substantially with the use of CD4 thresholds between 0.300 and 0.500 × 10(9) cells/L.

Interregional compensatory mechanisms of motor functioning in progressing preclinical neurodegeneration.

Understanding brain reserve in preclinical stages of neurodegenerative disorders allows determination of which brain regions contribute to normal functioning despite accelerated neuronal loss. Besides the recruitment of additional regions, a reorganisation and shift of relevance between normally engaged regions are a suggested key mechanism. Thus, network analysis methods seem critical for investigation of changes in directed causal interactions between such candidate brain regions. To identify core compensatory regions, fifteen preclinical patients carrying the genetic mutation leading to Huntington's disease and twelve controls underwent fMRI scanning. They accomplished an auditory paced finger sequence tapping task, which challenged cognitive as well as executive aspects of motor functioning by varying speed and complexity of movements. To investigate causal interactions among brain regions a single Dynamic Causal Model (DCM) was constructed and fitted to the data from each subject. The DCM parameters were analysed using statistical methods to assess group differences in connectivity, and the relationship between connectivity patterns and predicted years to clinical onset was assessed in gene carriers. In preclinical patients, we found indications for neural reserve mechanisms predominantly driven by bilateral dorsal premotor cortex, which increasingly activated superior parietal cortices the closer individuals were to estimated clinical onset. This compensatory mechanism was restricted to complex movements characterised by high cognitive demand. Additionally, we identified task-induced connectivity changes in both groups of subjects towards pre- and caudal supplementary motor areas, which were linked to either faster or more complex task conditions. Interestingly, coupling of dorsal premotor cortex and supplementary motor area was more negative in controls compared to gene mutation carriers. Furthermore, changes in the connectivity pattern of gene carriers allowed prediction of the years to estimated disease onset in individuals. Our study characterises the connectivity pattern of core cortical regions maintaining motor function in relation to varying task demand. We identified connections of bilateral dorsal premotor cortex as critical for compensation as well as task-dependent recruitment of pre- and caudal supplementary motor area. The latter finding nicely mirrors a previously published general linear model-based analysis of the same data. Such knowledge about disease specific inter-regional effective connectivity may help identify foci for interventions based on transcranial magnetic stimulation designed to stimulate functioning and also to predict their impact on other regions in motor-associated networks.

Tackling self-selection into treatment and self-selection into the sample biases in VAA research

Self‐selection into treatment and self‐selection into the sample are major concerns of VAA research and need to be controlled for if the aim is to deduce causal effects from VAA use in observational data. This paper focuses on the methodological aspects of VAA research and outlines omnipresent endogeneity issues, partly imposed through unobserved factors that affect both whether individuals chose to use VAAs and their electoral behavior. We promote using Heckman selection models and apply various versions of the model to data from the Swiss electorate and smartvote users in order to see to what extent selection biases interfere with the estimated effects of interest.

Epidemiological Profile for Iowa, 2002

This statewide profile describes the epidemiology of HIV, AIDS, and other sexually transmitted diseases in Iowa through December, 2002. The report characterizes the distribution of these diseases in terms of geography, race, gender, age, and associated causal factors. This epidemiological profile has been prepared to assist in developing a comprehensive HIV/AIDS Prevention and Care Plan. This description of the HIV epidemic in the state serves to guide prevention and service efforts, to quantify unmet need for prevention and care programs, and to evaluate programs and policies in Iowa. Five key questions are addressed: 1. What are the sociodemographic characteristics of Iowa’s population? 2. What is the epidemiology, including the geographical distribution, of HIV, AIDS, and other sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) in Iowa? 3. Who is at the greatest risk of becoming infected with HIV and other STDs in Iowa? 4. What are the patterns of utilization of HIV services throughout the state? 5. What are the number and characteristics of persons who know they are HIV-positive, but who are not receiving primary medical care?

El reto del paisaje urbano en China, del Mall Comercial al espacio público

Las categorías del espacio introvertido y extrovertido definen por excelencia la estructura espacial, que ordena el ámbito de lo privado y lo público en la ciudad. La dualidad del espacio abierto y cerrado, vinculado a la estructura espacial de la ciudad clásica China, quedaba ordenado, justificado y vinculado mediante una estructura espacial muy definida. Sin embargo en el modelo de ciudad contemporánea, aflora la cuestión de la integración de estas categorías espaciales y su articulación dentro de una estructura urbana heterogénea y fuertemente alterada. ¿Cuáles serán los factores de cambio de la transición de un espacio comunitario introvertido a un espacio cívico abierto? Este proceso es un proceso que debe discurrir a un doble nivel espacial y político. Debe discurrir en paralelo a la transición de las categorías espaciales que ordenan identitariamente el ámbito urbano y la progresiva transición socio-cultural y política de una sociedad que debe gradualmente identificar y adoptar como propias las instituciones de gobierno local y su escenario, la ciudad.

Long-distance wound signalling in arabidopsis

The leaves of all plants use elaborate and inducible defence systems to protect themselves. A wide variety of such defences are known and they include defence chemicals such as alkaloids, phenolics and terpenes, physical structures ranging from fibre cells to silica deposits, and a wide variety of defence proteins many of which target digestive processes in herbivores. It has long been known that the defence responses of plants under attack by insects are not restricted to the site of attack. Instead, if a leaf is damaged, defence can be triggered in other parts of the plant body, for example in distal leaves or even in roots and flowers. This raises the question of what are the organ-to-organ signals that coordinate this process. Several hypotheses have been proposed. These include the long-distance transfer of chemical signals through the plant vasculature, hydraulic signals that may transit through the xylem, and electrical signals that would move through living tissues such as the phloem. Much evidence for each of these scenarios has been published. In this thesis we took advantage of the fact that many plant defence responses are regulated by a signal transduction pathway based on a molecule called jasmonic acid. We used this molecule, one of its derivatives (jasmonoyl-isoleucine), and some of the genes it regulates as markers. Using these we investigated the possible role of the electrical signals in the leaf- to-leaf activation of the jasmonate pathway. We found that feeding insects stimulate easily detected electrical activity in the leaves of Arabidopsis thaliana and we used non-invasive surface electrodes to record this activity. This approach showed that jasmonate pathway activity and the electrical activity provoked by mechanical wounding occurred within identical spatial boundaries. Measurements of the apparent speed of surface potentials agreed well with previous velocity estimates for the speed of leaf-to-leaf signals that activate the jasmonate pathway. Using this knowledge we were able to investigate the effects of current injection into Arabidopsis leaves. This resulted in the strong expression of many jasmonate-regulated genes. All these results showed that electrical activity and the activation of jasmonate signalling were highly correlated. In order to test for possible causal links between the two processes, we conducted a small-scale reverse genetic screen on a series of T-DNA insertion mutants in ion channel genes and in other genes encoding proteins such as proton pumps. This screen, which was based on surface potential measurements, revealed that mutations in genes related to ionotropic glutamate receptors in animals had impaired electrical activity after wounding. Combining mutation of two of these glutamate-receptor-like genes in a double mutant reduced the response of leaves to current injection. When a leaf of this double mutant was wounded it failed to transmit a long-distance signal to a distal leaf. This result distinguished the double mutant from the wild-type plant and provides the first genetic evidence that electrical signalling is necessary to coordinate defence responses between organs in plants. - Les feuilles des plantes disposent de systèmes de défense inductibles très élaborés. Un grand nombre de ces systèmes de défenses sont connus et sont basés sur des composés chimiques comme les alcaloïdes, les composés phénoliques ou les terpènes, des systèmes physiques allant de la production de cellules fibreuses aux cristaux de silice ainsi qu'un grand nombre de protéines de défense ciblant le processus digestif des herbivores. Il est connu dépuis longtemps que la réponse défensive de la plante face à l'attaque pas un insecte n'est pas seulement localisée au niveau de la zone d'attaque. A la place, si une feuille est attaquée, les systèmes de défense peuvent être activés ailleurs dans la plante, comme par exemple dans d'autres feuilles, les racines ou même les fleurs. Ces observations soulèvent la question de la nature des signaux d'organes à organes qui régulent ces systèmes. Plusieurs hypothèses ont été formulées; une ou plusieures molécules pourraient être véhiculées dans la plante grâce au système vasculaire, un signal hydraulique transmis au travers du xylème ou encore des signaux électriques transmis par les cellules comme dans le phloème par exemple. De nombreuses études ont été publiées sur ces différentes hypothèses. Dans ce travail de thèse, nous avons choisi d'utiliser à notre avantage le fait que de nombreuses réponses de défense de la plante sont régulées par une même voie de signalisation utilisant l'acide jasmonique. Nous avons utilisé comme marqueurs cette molécule, un de ses dérivés (le jasmonoyl-isoleucine) ainsi que certains des gènes que l'acide jasmonique régule. Nous avons alors testé l'implication de la transmission de signaux électriques dans l'activation de la voie du jasmonate de feuille à feuille. Nous avons découvert que les insectes qui se nourrissent de feuilles d'Arabidopsis thaliana activent un signal électrique que nous avons pu mesurer grâce à une technique non invasive d'électrodes de surface. Les enregistrements ont montré que la génération de signaux électriques et l'activation de la voie du jasmonate avaient lieu aux mêmes endroits. La mesure de la vitesse de déplacement des impulsions électriques correspond aux estimations faites concernant l'activation de la voie du jasmonate. Grâce à cela, nous avons pu tester l'effet d'injection de courant électrique dans les feuilles d'Arabidopsis. La conséquence a été une forte expression de nombreux gènes de la voie du jasmonate, suggérant une forte corrélation entre l'activité électrique et l'activation de la voie du jasmonate. Afin de tester le lien de cause entre ces deux phénomènes, nous avons entrepris un criblage génétique sur une série de mutants d'insertion à l'ADN-T dans des gènes de canaux ioniques et d'autres gènes d'intérêt comme les gènes des pompes à protons. Ce criblage, basé sur la mesure de potentiels de surface, a permis de montrer que plusieurs mutations de gènes liés aux récepteurs au glutamate ionotropique présentent une baisse drastique de leurs activités électriques après une blessure mécanique des feuilles par rapport au type sauvage. Par la combinaison de deux mutations de ces récepteurs au glutamate en un double mutant, on obtient une réponse à la stimulation électrique encore plus faible. Quand une feuille du double mutant est blessée, elle est incapable de transmettre un signal à longue distance vers une feuille éloignée. Ce résultat permet de distinguer le double mutant de la plante sauvage et amène la première preuve génétique que l'activité électrique est nécessaire pour coordonner les réponses de défense entre les organes chez les plantes.

Evidence-based Economic Policy - Three Essays in Applied Microeconometrics

Over thirty years ago, Leamer (1983) - among many others - expressed doubts about the quality and usefulness of empirical analyses for the economic profession by stating that "hardly anyone takes data analyses seriously. Or perhaps more accurately, hardly anyone takes anyone else's data analyses seriously" (p.37). Improvements in data quality, more robust estimation methods and the evolution of better research designs seem to make that assertion no longer justifiable (see Angrist and Pischke (2010) for a recent response to Leamer's essay). The economic profes- sion and policy makers alike often rely on empirical evidence as a means to investigate policy relevant questions. The approach of using scientifically rigorous and systematic evidence to identify policies and programs that are capable of improving policy-relevant outcomes is known under the increasingly popular notion of evidence-based policy. Evidence-based economic policy often relies on randomized or quasi-natural experiments in order to identify causal effects of policies. These can require relatively strong assumptions or raise concerns of external validity. In the context of this thesis, potential concerns are for example endogeneity of policy reforms with respect to the business cycle in the first chapter, the trade-off between precision and bias in the regression-discontinuity setting in chapter 2 or non-representativeness of the sample due to self-selection in chapter 3. While the identification strategies are very useful to gain insights into the causal effects of specific policy questions, transforming the evidence into concrete policy conclusions can be challenging. Policy develop- ment should therefore rely on the systematic evidence of a whole body of research on a specific policy question rather than on a single analysis. In this sense, this thesis cannot and should not be viewed as a comprehensive analysis of specific policy issues but rather as a first step towards a better understanding of certain aspects of a policy question. The thesis applies new and innovative identification strategies to policy-relevant and topical questions in the fields of labor economics and behavioral environmental economics. Each chapter relies on a different identification strategy. In the first chapter, we employ a difference- in-differences approach to exploit the quasi-experimental change in the entitlement of the max- imum unemployment benefit duration to identify the medium-run effects of reduced benefit durations on post-unemployment outcomes. Shortening benefit duration carries a double- dividend: It generates fiscal benefits without deteriorating the quality of job-matches. On the contrary, shortened benefit durations improve medium-run earnings and employment possibly through containing the negative effects of skill depreciation or stigmatization. While the first chapter provides only indirect evidence on the underlying behavioral channels, in the second chapter I develop a novel approach that allows to learn about the relative impor- tance of the two key margins of job search - reservation wage choice and search effort. In the framework of a standard non-stationary job search model, I show how the exit rate from un- employment can be decomposed in a way that is informative on reservation wage movements over the unemployment spell. The empirical analysis relies on a sharp discontinuity in unem- ployment benefit entitlement, which can be exploited in a regression-discontinuity approach to identify the effects of extended benefit durations on unemployment and survivor functions. I find evidence that calls for an important role of reservation wage choices for job search be- havior. This can have direct implications for the optimal design of unemployment insurance policies. The third chapter - while thematically detached from the other chapters - addresses one of the major policy challenges of the 21st century: climate change and resource consumption. Many governments have recently put energy efficiency on top of their agendas. While pricing instru- ments aimed at regulating the energy demand have often been found to be short-lived and difficult to enforce politically, the focus of energy conservation programs has shifted towards behavioral approaches - such as provision of information or social norm feedback. The third chapter describes a randomized controlled field experiment in which we discuss the effective- ness of different types of feedback on residential electricity consumption. We find that detailed and real-time feedback caused persistent electricity reductions on the order of 3 to 5 % of daily electricity consumption. Also social norm information can generate substantial electricity sav- ings when designed appropriately. The findings suggest that behavioral approaches constitute effective and relatively cheap way of improving residential energy-efficiency.

Etude des liens entre l'alexithymie, l'expérience dépressive et la dépendance interpersonnelle chez des sujets addictifs [Relationships between alexithymia, depression and interpersonal dependency in addictive subjects].

In the scientific literature, the term of addiction is currently used to describe a whole range of phenomena characterized by an irresistible urge to engage in a series of behaviors carried out in a repetitive and persistent manner despite accruing adverse somatic, psychological and social consequences for the individual. It has been suggested that subjects presenting such behaviors would share specific features of personality which support the appearance or are associated with these addictive behaviors. Dimensions such as alexithymia and depression have been particularly well investigated. The aim of this study was to explore the hypothesis of a specific psychopathological model relating alexithymia and depression in different addictive disorders such as alcoholism, drug addiction or eating disorders. Alexithymic and depressive dimensions were explored and analyzed through the statistical tool of path analysis in a large clinical sample of addicted patients and controls. The results of this statistical method, which tests unidirectional causal relationships between a certain number of observed variables, showed a good adjustment between the observed data and the ideal model, and support the hypothesis that a depressive dimension can facilitate the development of dependence in vulnerable alexithymic subjects. These results can have clinical implications in the treatment of addictive disorders.

Common variants associated with plasma triglycerides and risk for coronary artery disease.

Triglycerides are transported in plasma by specific triglyceride-rich lipoproteins; in epidemiological studies, increased triglyceride levels correlate with higher risk for coronary artery disease (CAD). However, it is unclear whether this association reflects causal processes. We used 185 common variants recently mapped for plasma lipids (P < 5 × 10(-8) for each) to examine the role of triglycerides in risk for CAD. First, we highlight loci associated with both low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and triglyceride levels, and we show that the direction and magnitude of the associations with both traits are factors in determining CAD risk. Second, we consider loci with only a strong association with triglycerides and show that these loci are also associated with CAD. Finally, in a model accounting for effects on LDL-C and/or high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) levels, the strength of a polymorphism's effect on triglyceride levels is correlated with the magnitude of its effect on CAD risk. These results suggest that triglyceride-rich lipoproteins causally influence risk for CAD.

Protocol d’avaluació i orientació d’intervenció davant dels consums d’alcohol

El consum d’alcohol juntament amb els altres problemes relacionats amb el consum de tòxics ha estat en molt casos un element que ha tingut un paper significatiu en la comissió del delicte tant com a factor causal com facilitador. El consum d’alcohol i els problemes associats queden ocults quan el subjecte ingressa a presó arran de la no-disponibilitat de la substància i és en reiniciar els contactes amb el medi exterior que sovint aquest problema torna a aparèixer progressivament si no ha estat abordat prèviament. Aquest protocol elaborat per una comunitat de psicòlegs de centres penitenciaris de Catalunya pretén trobar una metodologia comuna d’avaluació i intervenció davant els consums actuals d’alcohol i la detecció dels subjectes amb història personal de risc de consum perjudicial.

Do Financial Incentives Affect Firms' Demand For Disabled Workers?

A number of OECD countries aim to encourage work integration of disabled persons using quota policies. For instance, Austrian firms must provide at least one job to a disabled worker per 25 nondisabled workers and are subject to a tax if they do not. This "threshold design" provides causal estimates of the noncompliance tax on disabled employment if firms do not manipulate nondisabled employment; a lower and upper bound on the causal effect can be constructed if they do. Results indicate that firms with 25 nondisabled workers employ about 0.04 (or 12%) more disabled workers than without the tax; firms do manipulate employment of nondisabled workers but the lower bound on the employment effect of the quota remains positive; employment effects are stronger in low-wage firms than in high-wage firms; and firms subject to the quota of two disabled workers or more hire 0.08 more disabled workers per additional quota job. Moreover, increasing the noncompliance tax increases excess disabled employment, whereas paying a bonus to overcomplying firms slightly dampens the employment effects of the tax.

Causality and endogeneity: Problems and solutions

Most leadership and management researchers ignore one key design and estimation problem rendering parameter estimates uninterpretable: Endogeneity. We discuss the problem of endogeneity in depth and explain conditions that engender it using examples grounded in the leadership literature. We show how consistent causal estimates can be derived from the randomized experiment, where endogeneity is eliminated by experimental design. We then review the reasons why estimates may become biased (i.e., inconsistent) in non-experimental designs and present a number of useful remedies for examining causal relations with non-experimental data. We write in intuitive terms using nontechnical language to make this chapter accessible to a large audience.