1999年の中国電信再編案策定の政治過程－国務院指導者と信息産業部の役割を中心に－

１９９４年に中国電信（China Telecom）の独占状態にあった電気通信業が，中国聯通（China Unicom）の新規参入による独占打破を経て，競争が進むかに思われたが，その後も中国電信による事実上の独占状態が続いた。そのため，この状況を解消すべく，１９９９年２月に中国電信の事業別４分割を盛り込んだ「中国電気通信業改革案」が策定された。この中国電信の再編案策定過程は，第１に電気通信業の所管官庁である信息産業部ではなく，朱鎔基総理など国務院指導者の影響を強く受けたこと，第２に国務院の指導者の強い影響を受けながら，最終的には信息産業部が自らに有利な再編案を策定したことから，国務院指導者と信息産業部が主要アクターであり，両者の駆け引きがポイントとなる政治過程としての特徴を有する。国務院指導者が中国電信の再編の方向性として事業別独立分割を打ち出したのは，電気通信業改革が単なる業界の問題ではなく，国有企業改革，WTO加盟，国家情報化ネットワーク構想の推進などの外部の圧力にさらされて，中国電信の再編が，社会の圧力や国際的な要求を考慮しなければならなかったから，すなわち電気通信業改革が政治化したからだった。他方，信息産業部にとって中国電信の再編は所管官庁としての権力リソースの維持と大きく関わっており，固定電話事業の分割をも含んだ国務院指導者の意向を覆し，自らに有利な中国電信の事業別独立４分割案を策定することができたのは，電気通信業という専門性の高さを全面に押し出し，国務院指導者らの説得に成功したからであった。本稿では，中国電信の再編案の策定過程を分析し，電気通信業改革の政治化の状況と，信息産業部が国務院指導者との駆け引きを通じて中国電信の事業別４分割を決断するに至る政治過程を明らかにする。

A Critical Review of Opinion Polls relating to Iranian Voting Intentions: Problems of Research Methodology as applied to Complex Societies

After the 10th Iranian Presidential election on June 12, 2009, several public opinion polls taken in Iran attracted the attention of policy-makers and journalists around the world because of the political crisis that followed. In this paper I first review critically the polls conducted by the WPO (WorldPublicOpinion.org), PIPA (Program on International Policy Attitudes) at the University of Maryland. I also review an essay by Steven Kull, which is based on the aforementioned poll results and which in my opinion leads to false conclusions concerning Iran’s political prospects. I also discuss “An Analysis of Multiple Polls of the Iranian Public,” published by WPO-PIPA on February 3 2010. The present paper arrives at the overall conclusion that it is impossible to obtain an accurate image of political opinions in societies as complicated as that of Iran by concentrating on only one technique of research and analysis, especially when the political and social situation in the society concerned is in a state of constant flux.

公的研究機関としての成果の発信について： アジア経済研究所学術研究リポジトリ（ARRIDE）の場合

　日本貿易振興機構アジア経済研究所は研究者数約150 名、50 年の歴史を持つ社会科学系の研究機関である。 日本における開発途上国研究の拠点として世界への知的 貢献をなすことを目指し、途上国の経済、社会、政治、 国際協力・援助に関する幅広い研究を行っている。当研 究所のような独立行政法人で機関リポジトリを公開して いる例は日本ではまだ数少ない。国立情報学研究所ウェ ブサイト内の国内の機関リポジトリ一覧（http://www. nii.ac.jp/irp/list/）によると、大学以外を母体とする機関 リポジトリ（共同リポジトリを除く）は2010 年3 月時 点で11 7 件中6 件のみである。 　機関リポジトリは学術情報のオープンアクセス化の潮 流の中で、セルフアーカイビングによりそれを実現する 代表的な方法である。加えて、機関の研究成果を蓄積保 存し無料で広く公開することは研究所のミッションであ る「世界への知的貢献」に寄与し、また公的研究機関と しての説明責任を果たす上でも重要であると考えられ る。そのような観点から、当研究所の事例をご紹介して みたい。

Related Lending and Bank Performance: Evidence from Indonesia

After the Asian financial crisis of 1997, it was confirmed that banks lend to their related parties in many countries. The question examined in this article is whether related lending functions to alleviate the problems of asymmetric information or transfers profits from depositors and minority shareholders to related parties. The effects of related lending on the profitability and risk of banks in Indonesia are examined using panel data from 1994 to 2007 comprising a total of 74 Indonesian banks. The effects on return on asset (ROA) varied at different periods. Before and right after the crisis, a higher credit allocation to related parties increased ROA. In middle of the crisis, it turned to negative; and this has also been the case in the most recent period as the Indonesian economy has normalized. Effects of related lending on bank risk measured by the Z-score and non-performing loan is not clear. After undergoing bank restructuring, related lending has decreased and the profit structure of banks has changed.

The Diversity and Dynamics of Industrial Organisation: Transformation of Local Assemblers in the Vietnamese Motorcycle Industry

This paper focuses on an emerging arm's-length form of industrial organisation in the motorcycle industry, which had traditionally been characterised by tightly integrated form of organisation. By engaging in how this new form of organisation that emerged in China was transferred to Vietnam and evolved in the Vietnamese context, this paper seeks to illustrate how the rise of local firms in developing countries is driving the increased diversity and dynamics of industrial organisation in an industry that had previously been dominated by TNCs from developed countries.

FDI and Export Participation of Local Firms in Africa: The Case of the Kenyan Garment Industry

FDI in the garment sector has been the single case of large-scale manufacturing investment in African low-income countries since the 1990s. While FDI has triggered the development of local industries in many developing countries, it has not yet been realized in Africa. This paper describes the spillover process in the Kenyan garment industry and investigates the background of local firms' behavior through firm interviews and simulation of expected profits in export market. It shows that credit constraint, rather than absorptive capacity, is a primary source of inactive participation in export opportunity. Only firms which afford additional production facilities without sacrificing stable domestic supply may be motivated to start exporting. However, in comparison with successful Asian exporters, those firms were not as motivated as Asian firms due to the large gap in expected profits.

Interaction of powers in the Philippine presidential system

The executive - legislative relations in the Philippines have been described in two contrasting stories, namely the "strong president" story, and the "strong congress" story. This paper tries to consolidate the existing arguments and propose a new perspective focusing on the "compromise exchange" between the president and the congress across the different policy areas. It considers that the policy outcome is not brought by unilateral power of the president or the congress, but formed as the product of such an exchange. Interaction of powers and their complementary function are addressed. Furthermore, aside from the constitutional power, the weak party discipline is pointed out as a key factor in making the exchange possible.

The determinants of offshore production by Multinational Corporations (MNCs) : a comparison of Japanese and US MNCs

This study employs confidential affiliate-level panel data to improve measures of foreign affiliate activities of Japanese firms in manufacturing sectors. Combining existing data on U.S. MNCs with the Japanese data, we illustrate the pattern and determinant of their foreign affiliate sales by destination market across countries and industries for the period 1989-2005. Among our results, Japanese and U.S. MNCs are similar in the substantial growth of their foreign affiliate sales and the importance of sales to local markets. However, Japanese MNCs are distinctive from U.S. MNCs in that Japanese affiliate sales in Asia were prominently higher in host markets with lower educational attainment.

Is the Indonesian President strong or weak?

This paper analyzes the newly institutionalized political system in democratizing Indonesia, with particular reference to the presidential system. Consensus has not yet been reached among scholars on whether the Indonesian president is strong or weak. This paper tries to answer this question by analyzing the legislative and partisan powers of the Indonesian president. It must be acknowledged, however, that these two functions do not on their own explain the strengths and weaknesses of the president. This paper suggests that in order to fully understand the presidential system in Indonesia, we need to take into account not just the president's legislative and partisan powers, but also the legislative process and the characteristics of coalition government.

No insulation : politics and technocracy's troubled trajectory

Technocracy often holds out the promise of rational, disinterested decision-making. Yet states look to technocracy not just for expert inputs and calculated outcomes but to embed the exercise of power in many agendas, policies and programs. Thus, technocracy operates as an appendage of politically constructed structures and configurations of power, and highly placed technocrats cannot be 'mere' backroom experts who supply disinterested rational-technical solutions in economic planning, resource allocation and social distribution, which are inherently political. This paper traces the trajectories of technocracy in conditions of rapid social transformation, severe economic restructuring, or political crises - when the technocratic was unavoidably political.