High-resolution global climate simulations with the ECMWF model in Project Athena: experimental design, model climate, and seasonal forecast skill

The sensitivity to the horizontal resolution of the climate, anthropogenic climate change, and seasonal predictive skill of the ECMWF model has been studied as part of Project Athena—an international collaboration formed to test the hypothesis that substantial progress in simulating and predicting climate can be achieved if mesoscale and subsynoptic atmospheric phenomena are more realistically represented in climate models. In this study the experiments carried out with the ECMWF model (atmosphere only) are described in detail. Here, the focus is on the tropics and the Northern Hemisphere extratropics during boreal winter. The resolutions considered in Project Athena for the ECMWF model are T159 (126 km), T511 (39 km), T1279 (16 km), and T2047 (10 km). It was found that increasing horizontal resolution improves the tropical precipitation, the tropical atmospheric circulation, the frequency of occurrence of Euro-Atlantic blocking, and the representation of extratropical cyclones in large parts of the Northern Hemisphere extratropics. All of these improvements come from the increase in resolution from T159 to T511 with relatively small changes for further resolution increases to T1279 and T2047, although it should be noted that results from this very highest resolution are from a previously untested model version. Problems in simulating the Madden–Julian oscillation remain unchanged for all resolutions tested. There is some evidence that increasing horizontal resolution to T1279 leads to moderate increases in seasonal forecast skill during boreal winter in the tropics and Northern Hemisphere extratropics. Sensitivity experiments are discussed, which helps to foster a better understanding of some of the resolution dependence found for the ECMWF model in Project Athena

Novel polyvinylpyrrolidones to improve delivery of poorly-water soluble drugs; from design to synthesis and evaluation

Polyvinylpyrrolidone is a widely used in tablet formulations with the linear form acting as a wetting agent and disintegrant whereas the cross-linked form is a super-disintegrant. We have previously reported that simply mixing the commercial cross-linked polymer with ibuprofen disrupted drug crystallinity with consequent improvements in drug dissolution behavior. In this study, we have designed and synthesized novel cross-linking agents containing a range of oligoether moieties which have then be polymerized with vinylpyrrolidone to generate a suite of novel excipients with enhanced hydrogen-bonding capabilities. The polymers have a porous surface and swell in most common solvents and in water; properties which suggest their value as disintegrants. The polymers were evaluated in simple physical mixtures with ibuprofen as a model poorly-water soluble drug. The results show that the novel PVPs induce the drug to become “X-ray amorphous”, which increased dissolution to a greater extent than that seen with commercial cross-linked PVP. The polymers stabilize the amorphous drug with no evidence for recrystallization seen after 20 weeks storage.

August Thienemann and Loch Lomond - an approach to the design of a system for monitoring the state of north-temperate standing waters

Limnologists had an early preoccupation with lake classification. It gave a necessary structure to the many chemical and biological observations that were beginning to form the basis of one of the earliest truly environmental sciences. August Thienemann was the doyen of such classifiers and his concept with Einar Naumann of oligotrophic and eutrophic lakes remains central to the world-view that limnologists still have. Classification fell into disrepute, however, as it became clear that there would always be lakes that deviated from the prescriptions that the classifiers made for them. Continua became the de rigeur concept and lakes were seen as varying along many chemical, biological and geographic axes. Modern limnologists are comfortable with this concept. That all lakes are different guarantees an indefinite future for limnological research. For those who manage lakes and the landscapes in which they are set, however, it is not very useful. There may be as many as 300000 standing water bodies in England and Wales alone and maybe as many again in Scotland. More than 80 000 are sizable (> 1 ha). Some classification scheme to cope with these numbers is needed and, as human impacts on them increase, a system of assessing and monitoring change must be built into such a scheme. Although ways of classifying and monitoring running waters are well developed in the UK, the same is not true of standing waters. Sufficient understanding of what determines the nature and functioning of lakes exists to create a system which has intellectual credibility as well as practical usefulness. This paper outlines the thinking behind a system which will be workable on a north European basis and presents some early results.

Design of a forecasting system for ECMWF

As laid out in its convention there are 8 different objectives for ECMWF. One of the major objectives will consist of the preparation, on a regular basis, of the data necessary for the preparation of medium-range weather forecasts. The interpretation of this item is that the Centre will make forecasts once a day for a prediction period of up to 10 days. It is also evident that the Centre should not carry out any real weather forecasting but merely disseminate to the member countries the basic forecasting parameters with an appropriate resolution in space and time. It follows from this that the forecasting system at the Centre must from the operational point of view be functionally integrated with the Weather Services of the Member Countries. The operational interface between ECMWF and the Member Countries must be properly specified in order to get a reasonable flexibility for both systems. The problem of making numerical atmospheric predictions for periods beyond 4-5 days differs substantially from 2-3 days forecasting. From the physical point we can define a medium range forecast as a forecast where the initial disturbances have lost their individual structure. However we are still interested to predict the atmosphere in a similar way as in short range forecasting which means that the model must be able to predict the dissipation and decay of the initial phenomena and the creation of new ones. With this definition, medium range forecasting is indeed very difficult and generally regarded as more difficult than extended forecasts, where we usually only predict time and space mean values. The predictability of atmospheric flow has been extensively studied during the last years in theoretical investigations and by numerical experiments. As has been discussed elsewhere in this publication (see pp 338 and 431) a 10-day forecast is apparently on the fringe of predictability.

Towards the design of a unified semantics model for OLTP and OLAP systems

The concepts of on-line transactional processing (OLTP) and on-line analytical processing (OLAP) are often confused with the technologies or models that are used to design transactional and analytics based information systems. This in some way has contributed to existence of gaps between the semantics in information captured during transactional processing and information stored for analytical use. In this paper, we propose the use of a unified semantics design model, as a solution to help bridge the semantic gaps between data captured by OLTP systems and the information provided by OLAP systems. The central focus of this design approach is on enabling business intelligence using not just data, but data with context.

The prevalence and nature of prescribing and monitoring errors in English general practice – a retrospective case note review

Objective To determine the prevalence and nature of prescribing and monitoring errors in general practices in England. Design Retrospective case note review of unique medication items prescribed over a 12 month period to a 2% random sample of patients. Mixed effects logistic regression was used to analyse the data. Setting Fifteen general practices across three primary care trusts in England. Data sources Examination of 6048 unique prescription items prescribed over the previous 12 months for 1777 patients. Main outcome measures Prevalence of prescribing and monitoring errors, and severity of errors, using validated definitions. Results Prescribing and/or monitoring errors were detected in 4.9% (296/6048) of all prescription items (95% confidence interval 4.4 - 5.5%). The vast majority of errors were of mild to moderate severity, with 0.2% (11/6048) of items having a severe error. After adjusting for covariates, patient-related factors associated with an increased risk of prescribing and/or monitoring errors were: age less than 15 (Odds Ratio (OR) 1.87, 1.19 to 2.94, p=0.006) or greater than 64 years (OR 1.68, 1.04 to 2.73, p=0.035), and higher numbers of unique medication items prescribed (OR 1.16, 1.12 to 1.19, p<0.001). Conclusion Prescribing and monitoring errors are common in English general practice, although severe errors are unusual. Many factors increase the risk of error. Having identified the most common and important errors, and the factors associated with these, strategies to prevent future errors should be developed based on the study findings.

BIM: innovation in design management, influence and challenges of implementation

The construction industry is widely being criticised as a fragmented industry. There are mounting calls for the industry to change. The espoused change calls for collaboration as well as embracing innovation in the process of design, construction and across the supply chain. Innovation and the application of emerging technologies are seen as enablers for integrating the processes ‘integrating the team’ such as building information modelling (BIM). A questionnaire survey was conducted to ascertain change in construction with regard to design management, innovation and the application of BIM as cutting edge pathways for collaboration. The respondents to the survey were from an array of designations across the construction industry such as construction managers, designers, engineers, design coordinators, design managers, architects, architectural technologists and surveyors. There was a general agreement by most respondents that the design team was responsible for design management in their organisation. There is a perception that the design manager and the client are the catalyst for advancing innovation. The current state of industry in terms of incorporating BIM technologies is posing a challenge as well as providing an opportunity for accomplishment. BIM technologies provide a new paradigm shift in the way buildings are designed, constructed and maintained. This paradigm shift calls for rethinking the curriculum for educating building professionals, collectively.

Fashion magazines: design implications of focus and perception variance between Chinese and UK females

A growing segment of Chinese women are willing to spend a high percentage of their income on fashion related products, however there appears to be concern over the quality of Chinese fashion magazines. Concern can be focused in two major issues: i) fashion magazine design, and ii) pictorial and textual distribution of content. This paper investigates how human factors (i.e. social norms and individual differences) influence fashion magazine design/format preferences, and investigates the difference in readership patterns between British and Chinese Women. Our study identifies significant differences between UK and Chinese readership; which has an impact on magazine viewing patterns and content preference.

Results of PMIP2 coupled simulations of the mid-Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum, Part 1: experiments and large-scale features

A set of coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations using state of the art climate models is now available for the Last Glacial Maximum and the Mid-Holocene through the second phase of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP2). This study presents the large-scale features of the simulated climates and compares the new model results to those of the atmospheric models from the first phase of the PMIP, for which sea surface temperature was prescribed or computed using simple slab ocean formulations. We consider the large-scale features of the climate change, pointing out some of the major differences between the different sets of experiments. We show in particular that systematic differences between PMIP1 and PMIP2 simulations are due to the interactive ocean, such as the amplification of the African monsoon at the Mid-Holocene or the change in precipitation in mid-latitudes at the LGM. Also the PMIP2 simulations are in general in better agreement with data than PMIP1 simulations.

Creep and recovery of magnetorheological fluids: experiments and simulations

A direct comparative study on the creep-recovery behavior of conventional MR fluids is carried out using magnetorheometry and particle-level simulations. Two particle concentrations are investigated (ϕ=0.05 and 0.30) at two different magnetic field strengths (53 kA•m-1 and 173 kA•m-1) in order to match the yield stresses developed in both systems for easier comparison. Simulations are mostly started with random initial structures with some additional tests of using preassembled single chains in the low concentration case. Experimental and simulation data are in good qualitative agreement. The results demonstrate three regions in the creep curves: i) In the initial viscoelastic region, the chain-like (at ϕ=0.05) or percolated three-dimensional network (at ϕ=0.30) structures fill up the gap and the average cluster size remains constant; ii) Above a critical strain of 10 %, in the retardation region, these structures begin to break and rearrange under shear. At large enough imposed stress values, they transform into thin sheet-like or thick lamellar structures, depending on the particle concentration; iii) Finally in the case of larger strain values either the viscosity diverges (at low stress values) or reaches a constant low value (at high stress values), showing a clear bifurcation behavior. For stresses below the bifurcation point the MR fluid is capable to recover the strain by a certain fraction. However, no recovery is observed for large stress values.

Prostate cancer: important steps and considerations in the design of therapeutic vaccines

Vaccine-based immunotherapy can increase the overall survival of patients with advanced prostate cancer. However, the efficacy of vaccine-elicited anticancer immune responses is heavily influenced by the physical, nutritional, and psychological status of the patient. Given their importance, these parameters should be carefully considered for the design of future clinical trials testing this immunotherapeutic paradigm in prostate cancer patients.

Aspects of designing and evaluating seasonal-to-interannual Arctic sea-ice prediction systems

Using lessons from idealised predictability experiments, we discuss some issues and perspectives on the design of operational seasonal to inter-annual Arctic sea-ice prediction systems. We first review the opportunities to use a hierarchy of different types of experiment to learn about the predictability of Arctic climate. We also examine key issues for ensemble system design, such as: measuring skill, the role of ensemble size and generation of ensemble members. When assessing the potential skill of a set of prediction experiments, using more than one metric is essential as different choices can significantly alter conclusions about the presence or lack of skill. We find that increasing both the number of hindcasts and ensemble size is important for reliably assessing the correlation and expected error in forecasts. For other metrics, such as dispersion, increasing ensemble size is most important. Probabilistic measures of skill can also provide useful information about the reliability of forecasts. In addition, various methods for generating the different ensemble members are tested. The range of techniques can produce surprisingly different ensemble spread characteristics. The lessons learnt should help inform the design of future operational prediction systems.

Design of a unified data with business rules storage model for OLTP and OLAP systems

This paper reviews the literature concerning the practice of using Online Analytical Processing (OLAP) systems to recall information stored by Online Transactional Processing (OLTP) systems. Such a review provides a basis for discussion on the need for the information that are recalled through OLAP systems to maintain the contexts of transactions with the data captured by the respective OLTP system. The paper observes an industry trend involving the use of OLTP systems to process information into data, which are then stored in databases without the business rules that were used to process information and data stored in OLTP databases without associated business rules. This includes the necessitation of a practice, whereby, sets of business rules are used to extract, cleanse, transform and load data from disparate OLTP systems into OLAP databases to support the requirements for complex reporting and analytics. These sets of business rules are usually not the same as business rules used to capture data in particular OLTP systems. The paper argues that, differences between the business rules used to interpret these same data sets, risk gaps in semantics between information captured by OLTP systems and information recalled through OLAP systems. Literature concerning the modeling of business transaction information as facts with context as part of the modelling of information systems were reviewed to identify design trends that are contributing to the design quality of OLTP and OLAP systems. The paper then argues that; the quality of OLTP and OLAP systems design has a critical dependency on the capture of facts with associated context, encoding facts with contexts into data with business rules, storage and sourcing of data with business rules, decoding data with business rules into the facts with the context and recall of facts with associated contexts. The paper proposes UBIRQ, a design model to aid the co-design of data with business rules storage for OLTP and OLAP purposes. The proposed design model provides the opportunity for the implementation and use of multi-purpose databases, and business rules stores for OLTP and OLAP systems. Such implementations would enable the use of OLTP systems to record and store data with executions of business rules, which will allow for the use of OLTP and OLAP systems to query data with business rules used to capture the data. Thereby ensuring information recalled via OLAP systems preserves the contexts of transactions as per the data captured by the respective OLTP system.

Compensation and Rewards for Environmental Services (CRES) and efficient design of contracts in developing countries. Behavioral insights from a natural field experiment

The use of economic incentives for biodiversity (mostly Compensation and Reward for Environmental Services including Payment for ES) has been widely supported in the past decades and became the main innovative policy tools for biodiversity conservation worldwide. These policy tools are often based on the insight that rational actors perfectly weigh the costs and benefits of adopting certain behaviors and well-crafted economic incentives and disincentives will lead to socially desirable development scenarios. This rationalist mode of thought has provided interesting insights and results, but it also misestimates the context by which ‘real individuals’ come to decisions, and the multitude of factors influencing development sequences. In this study, our goal is to examine how these policies can take advantage of some unintended behavioral reactions that might in return impact, either positively or negatively, general policy performances. We test the effect of income's origin (‘Low effort’ based money vs. ‘High effort’ based money) on spending decisions (Necessity vs. Superior goods) and subsequent pro social preferences (Future pro-environmental behavior) within Madagascar rural areas, using a natural field experiment. Our results show that money obtained under low effort leads to different consumption patterns than money obtained under high efforts: superior goods are more salient in the case of low effort money. In parallel, money obtained under low effort leads to subsequent higher pro social behavior. Compensation and rewards policies for ecosystem services may mobilize knowledge on behavioral biases to improve their design and foster positive spillovers on their development goals.