861 resultados para Demand scenarios
Resumo:
What's known on the subject? and What does the study add? Nowadays radical prostatectomy (RP) is considered an effective treatment in high-risk prostate cancer (PCa) and the indications for a surgical approach are expanding, even in cases of very high PSA or node-positive disease. We explored the outcomes of debulking surgery in the setting of these very high-risk PCa patients, in order to assess its feasibility. This review confirms the important role achieved by surgery in the complex setting of patients with very high-risk PCA. Excellent survival rates have been reported, even when PSA exceeds 100 ng/mL. The completion of RP with lymphadenectomy might give a survival benefit in patients who were found intraoperatively to be node-positive. Furthermore, salvage RP confirmed to be the most effective treatment option after RT failure. On the contrary, up-to-date surgery of isolated nodal recurrences has shown only little benefit. Finally, there is no evidence supporting the efficacy of debulking surgery in metastatic or in hormone-refractory tumours. An accurate selection of the patient is essential.
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Potential future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics are among the more serious regional threats of global climate change. Therefore, a better understanding of how anthropogenic climate change may affect TCs and how these changes translate in socio-economic impacts is required. Here, we apply a TC detection and tracking method that was developed for ERA-40 data to time-slice experiments of two atmospheric general circulation models, namely the fifth version of the European Centre model of Hamburg model (MPI, Hamburg, Germany, T213) and the Japan Meteorological Agency/ Meteorological research Institute model (MRI, Tsukuba city, Japan, TL959). For each model, two climate simulations are available: a control simulation for present-day conditions to evaluate the model against observations, and a scenario simulation to assess future changes. The evaluation of the control simulations shows that the number of intense storms is underestimated due to the model resolution. To overcome this deficiency, simulated cyclone intensities are scaled to the best track data leading to a better representation of the TC intensities. Both models project an increased number of major hurricanes and modified trajectories in their scenario simulations. These changes have an effect on the projected loss potentials. However, these state-of-the-art models still yield contradicting results, and therefore they are not yet suitable to provide robust estimates of losses due to uncertainties in simulated hurricane intensity, location and frequency.
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Searching for the neural correlates of visuospatial processing using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) is usually done in an event-related framework of cognitive subtraction, applying a paradigm comprising visuospatial cognitive components and a corresponding control task. Besides methodological caveats of the cognitive subtraction approach, the standard general linear model with fixed hemodynamic response predictors bears the risk of being underspecified. It does not take into account the variability of the blood oxygen level-dependent signal response due to variable task demand and performance on the level of each single trial. This underspecification may result in reduced sensitivity regarding the identification of task-related brain regions. In a rapid event-related fMRI study, we used an extended general linear model including single-trial reaction-time-dependent hemodynamic response predictors for the analysis of an angle discrimination task. In addition to the already known regions in superior and inferior parietal lobule, mapping the reaction-time-dependent hemodynamic response predictor revealed a more specific network including task demand-dependent regions not being detectable using the cognitive subtraction method, such as bilateral caudate nucleus and insula, right inferior frontal gyrus and left precentral gyrus.
Resumo:
The rehabilitation of concrete structures, especially concrete bridge decks, is a major challenge for transportation agencies in the United States. Often, the most appropriate strategy to preserve or rehabilitate these structures is to provide some form of a protective coating or barrier. These surface treatments have typically been some form of polymer, asphalt, or low-permeability concrete, but the application of UHPC has shown promise for this application mainly due to its negligible permeability, but also as a result of its excellent mechanical properties, self-consolidating nature, rapid gain strength, and minimal creep and shrinkage characteristics. However, for widespread acceptance, durability and performance of the composite system must be fully understood, specifically the bond between UHPC and NSC often used in bridge decks. It is essential that the bond offers enough strength to resist the stress due to mechanical loading or thermal effects, while also maintaining an extended service-life performance. This report attempts to assess the bond strength between UHPC and NSC under different loading configurations. Different variables, such as roughness degree of the concrete substrates, age of bond, exposure to freeze-thaw cycles and wetting conditions of the concrete substrate, were included in this study. The combination of splitting tensile test with 0, 300, 600 and 900 freeze-thaw cycles was carried out to assess the bond performance under severe ambient conditions. The slant-shear test was utilized with different interface angles to provide a wide understanding of the bond performance under different combinations of compression and shear stresses. The pull-off test is the most accepted method to evaluate the bond strength in the field. This test which studies the direct tensile strength of the bond, the most severe loading condition, was used to provide data that can be correlated with the other tests that only can be used in the laboratory. The experimental program showed that the bond performance between UHPC and NSC is successful, as the strength regardless the different degree of roughness of the concrete substrate, the age of the composite specimens, the exposure to freeze-thaw cycles and the different loading configurations, is greater than that of concrete substrate and largely satisfies with ACI 546.3R-06.
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Onondaga Lake has received the municipal effluent and industrial waste from the city of Syracuse for more than a century. Historically, 75 metric tons of mercury were discharged to the lake by chlor-alkali facilities. These legacy deposits of mercury now exist primarily in the lake sediments. Under anoxic conditions, methylmercury is produced in the sediments and can be released to the overlying water. Natural sedimentation processes are continuously burying the mercury deeper into the sediments. Eventually, the mercury will be buried to a depth where it no longer has an impact on the overlying water. In the interim, electron acceptor amendment systems can be installed to retard these chemical releases while the lake naturally recovers. Electron acceptor amendment systems are designed to meet the sediment oxygen demand in the sediment and maintain manageable hypolimnion oxygen concentrations. Historically, designs of these systems have been under designed resulting in failure. This stems from a mischaracterization of the sediment oxygen demand. Turbulence at the sediment water interface has been shown to impact sediment oxygen demand. The turbulence introduced by the electron amendment system can thus increase the sediment oxygen demand, resulting in system failure if turbulence is not factored into the design. Sediment cores were gathered and operated to steady state under several well characterized turbulence conditions. The relationship between sediment oxygen/nitrate demand and turbulence was then quantified and plotted. A maximum demand was exhibited at or above a fluid velocity of 2.0 mm•s-1. Below this velocity, demand decreased rapidly with fluid velocity as zero velocity was approached. Similar relationships were displayed by both oxygen and nitrate cores.
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Atmospheric turbulence near the ground severely limits the quality of imagery acquired over long horizontal paths. In defense, surveillance, and border security applications, there is interest in deploying man-portable, embedded systems incorporating image reconstruction methods to compensate turbulence effects. While many image reconstruction methods have been proposed, their suitability for use in man-portable embedded systems is uncertain. To be effective, these systems must operate over significant variations in turbulence conditions while subject to other variations due to operation by novice users. Systems that meet these requirements and are otherwise designed to be immune to the factors that cause variation in performance are considered robust. In addition robustness in design, the portable nature of these systems implies a preference for systems with a minimum level of computational complexity. Speckle imaging methods have recently been proposed as being well suited for use in man-portable horizontal imagers. In this work, the robustness of speckle imaging methods is established by identifying a subset of design parameters that provide immunity to the expected variations in operating conditions while minimizing the computation time necessary for image recovery. Design parameters are selected by parametric evaluation of system performance as factors external to the system are varied. The precise control necessary for such an evaluation is made possible using image sets of turbulence degraded imagery developed using a novel technique for simulating anisoplanatic image formation over long horizontal paths. System performance is statistically evaluated over multiple reconstruction using the Mean Squared Error (MSE) to evaluate reconstruction quality. In addition to more general design parameters, the relative performance the bispectrum and the Knox-Thompson phase recovery methods is also compared. As an outcome of this work it can be concluded that speckle-imaging techniques are robust to the variation in turbulence conditions and user controlled parameters expected when operating during the day over long horizontal paths. Speckle imaging systems that incorporate 15 or more image frames and 4 estimates of the object phase per reconstruction provide up to 45% reduction in MSE and 68% reduction in the deviation. In addition, Knox-Thompson phase recover method is shown to produce images in half the time required by the bispectrum. The quality of images reconstructed using Knox-Thompson and bispectrum methods are also found to be nearly identical. Finally, it is shown that certain blind image quality metrics can be used in place of the MSE to evaluate quality in field scenarios. Using blind metrics rather depending on user estimates allows for reconstruction quality that differs from the minimum MSE by as little as 1%, significantly reducing the deviation in performance due to user action.
Analysis of spring break-up and its effects on a biomass feedstock supply chain in northern Michigan
Resumo:
Demand for bio-fuels is expected to increase, due to rising prices of fossil fuels and concerns over greenhouse gas emissions and energy security. The overall cost of biomass energy generation is primarily related to biomass harvesting activity, transportation, and storage. With a commercial-scale cellulosic ethanol processing facility in Kinross Township of Chippewa County, Michigan about to be built, models including a simulation model and an optimization model have been developed to provide decision support for the facility. Both models track cost, emissions and energy consumption. While the optimization model provides guidance for a long-term strategic plan, the simulation model aims to present detailed output for specified operational scenarios over an annual period. Most importantly, the simulation model considers the uncertainty of spring break-up timing, i.e., seasonal road restrictions. Spring break-up timing is important because it will impact the feasibility of harvesting activity and the time duration of transportation restrictions, which significantly changes the availability of feedstock for the processing facility. This thesis focuses on the statistical model of spring break-up used in the simulation model. Spring break-up timing depends on various factors, including temperature, road conditions and soil type, as well as individual decision making processes at the county level. The spring break-up model, based on the historical spring break-up data from 27 counties over the period of 2002-2010, starts by specifying the probability distribution of a particular county’s spring break-up start day and end day, and then relates the spring break-up timing of the other counties in the harvesting zone to the first county. In order to estimate the dependence relationship between counties, regression analyses, including standard linear regression and reduced major axis regression, are conducted. Using realizations (scenarios) of spring break-up generated by the statistical spring breakup model, the simulation model is able to probabilistically evaluate different harvesting and transportation plans to help the bio-fuel facility select the most effective strategy. For early spring break-up, which usually indicates a longer than average break-up period, more log storage is required, total cost increases, and the probability of plant closure increases. The risk of plant closure may be partially offset through increased use of rail transportation, which is not subject to spring break-up restrictions. However, rail availability and rail yard storage may then become limiting factors in the supply chain. Rail use will impact total cost, energy consumption, system-wide CO2 emissions, and the reliability of providing feedstock to the bio-fuel processing facility.
Resumo:
This project addresses the potential impacts of changing climate on dry-season water storage and discharge from a small, mountain catchment in Tanzania. Villagers and water managers around the catchment have experienced worsening water scarcity and attribute it to increasing population and demand, but very little has been done to understand the physical characteristics and hydrological behavior of the spring catchment. The physical nature of the aquifer was characterized and water balance models were calibrated to discharge observations so as to be able to explore relative changes in aquifer storage resulting from climate changes. To characterize the shallow aquifer supplying water to the Jandu spring, water quality and geochemistry data were analyzed, discharge recession analysis was performed, and two water balance models were developed and tested. Jandu geochemistry suggests a shallow, meteorically-recharged aquifer system with short circulation times. Baseflow recession analysis showed that the catchment behavior could be represented by a linear storage model with an average recession constant of 0.151/month from 2004-2010. Two modified Thornthwaite-Mather Water Balance (TMWB) models were calibrated using historic rainfall and discharge data and shown to reproduce dry-season flows with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies between 0.86 and 0.91. The modified TMWB models were then used to examine the impacts of nineteen, perturbed climate scenarios to test the potential impacts of regional climate change on catchment storage during the dry season. Forcing the models with realistic scenarios for average monthly temperature, annual precipitation, and seasonal rainfall distribution demonstrated that even small climate changes might adversely impact aquifer storage conditions at the onset of the dry season. The scale of the change was dependent on the direction (increasing vs. decreasing) and magnitude of climate change (temperature and precipitation). This study demonstrates that small, mountain aquifer characterization is possible using simple water quality parameters, recession analysis can be integrated into modeling aquifer storage parameters, and water balance models can accurately reproduce dry-season discharges and might be useful tools to assess climate change impacts. However, uncertainty in current climate projections and lack of data for testing the predictive capabilities of the model beyond the present data set, make the forecasts of changes in discharge also uncertain. The hydrologic tools used herein offer promise for future research in understanding small, shallow, mountainous aquifers and could potentially be developed and used by water resource professionals to assess climatic influences on local hydrologic systems.
Resumo:
A microfluidic hydrogen generator is presented in this work. Its fabrication, characterization, and integration with a micro proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cell are described. Hydrogen gas is generated by the hydrolysis of aqueous ammonia borane. Gas generation, as well as the circulation of ammonia borane from a rechargeable fuel reservoir, is performed without any power consumption. To achieve this, directional growth and selective venting of hydrogen gas is maintained in the microchannels, which results in the circulation of fresh reactant from the fuel reservoir. In addition to this self-circulation mechanism, the hydrogen generator has been demonstrated to self-regulate gas generation to meet demands of a connected micro fuel cell. All of this is done without parasitic power consumption from the fuel cell. Results show its feasibility in applications of high-impedance systems. Lastly, recommendations for improvements and suggestions for future work are described
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A range of societal issues have been caused by fossil fuel consumption in the transportation sector in the United States (U.S.), including health related air pollution, climate change, the dependence on imported oil, and other oil related national security concerns. Biofuels production from various lignocellulosic biomass types such as wood, forest residues, and agriculture residues have the potential to replace a substantial portion of the total fossil fuel consumption. This research focuses on locating biofuel facilities and designing the biofuel supply chain to minimize the overall cost. For this purpose an integrated methodology was proposed by combining the GIS technology with simulation and optimization modeling methods. The GIS based methodology was used as a precursor for selecting biofuel facility locations by employing a series of decision factors. The resulted candidate sites for biofuel production served as inputs for simulation and optimization modeling. As a precursor to simulation or optimization modeling, the GIS-based methodology was used to preselect potential biofuel facility locations for biofuel production from forest biomass. Candidate locations were selected based on a set of evaluation criteria, including: county boundaries, a railroad transportation network, a state/federal road transportation network, water body (rivers, lakes, etc.) dispersion, city and village dispersion, a population census, biomass production, and no co-location with co-fired power plants. The simulation and optimization models were built around key supply activities including biomass harvesting/forwarding, transportation and storage. The built onsite storage served for spring breakup period where road restrictions were in place and truck transportation on certain roads was limited. Both models were evaluated using multiple performance indicators, including cost (consisting of the delivered feedstock cost, and inventory holding cost), energy consumption, and GHG emissions. The impact of energy consumption and GHG emissions were expressed in monetary terms to keep consistent with cost. Compared with the optimization model, the simulation model represents a more dynamic look at a 20-year operation by considering the impacts associated with building inventory at the biorefinery to address the limited availability of biomass feedstock during the spring breakup period. The number of trucks required per day was estimated and the inventory level all year around was tracked. Through the exchange of information across different procedures (harvesting, transportation, and biomass feedstock processing procedures), a smooth flow of biomass from harvesting areas to a biofuel facility was implemented. The optimization model was developed to address issues related to locating multiple biofuel facilities simultaneously. The size of the potential biofuel facility is set up with an upper bound of 50 MGY and a lower bound of 30 MGY. The optimization model is a static, Mathematical Programming Language (MPL)-based application which allows for sensitivity analysis by changing inputs to evaluate different scenarios. It was found that annual biofuel demand and biomass availability impacts the optimal results of biofuel facility locations and sizes.