The assessment of GCSE art: Criterion-referencing and cognitive abilities

In this paper Cognitive Abilities Test scores are compared directly with moderated GCSE scores awarded to the same group of pupils. For ease of interpretation the comparisons are presented in a graphical form. Whilst some provisional and tentative conclusions are drawn about the reliability of GCSE art, questions are raised about the general validity of criterion-referenced assessment in this area.

The temporal impulse response underlying saccadic decisions

Models of perceptual decision making often assume that sensory evidence is accumulated over time in favor of the various possible decisions, until the evidence in favor of one of them outweighs the evidence for the others. Saccadic eye movements are among the most frequent perceptual decisions that the human brain performs. We used stochastic visual stimuli to identify the temporal impulse response underlying saccadic eye movement decisions. Observers performed a contrast search task, with temporal variability in the visual signals. In experiment 1, we derived the temporal filter observers used to integrate the visual information. The integration window was restricted to the first similar to 100 ms after display onset. In experiment 2, we showed that observers cannot perform the task if there is no useful information to distinguish the target from the distractor within this time epoch. We conclude that (1) observers did not integrate sensory evidence up to a criterion level, (2) observers did not integrate visual information up to the start of the saccadic dead time, and (3) variability in saccade latency does not correspond to variability in the visual integration period. Instead, our results support a temporal filter model of saccadic decision making. The temporal impulse response identified by our methods corresponds well with estimates of integration times of V1 output neurons.

The value premium and time-varying volatility

Numerous studies have documented the failure of the static and conditional capital asset pricing models to explain the difference in returns between value and growth stocks. This paper examines the post-1963 value premium by employing a model that captures the time-varying total risk of the value-minus-growth portfolios. Our results show that the time-series of value premia is strongly and positively correlated with its volatility. This conclusion is robust to the criterion used to sort stocks into value and growth portfolios and to the country under review (the US and the UK). Our paper is consistent with evidence on the possible role of idiosyncratic risk in explaining equity returns, and also with a separate strand of literature concerning the relative lack of reversibility of value firms' investment decisions.

Judgments, forecasts and decisions: an analysis of fund managers over time

Decision theory is the study of models of judgement involved in, and leading to, deliberate and (usually) rational choice. In real estate investment there are normative models for the allocation of assets. These asset allocation models suggest an optimum allocation between the respective asset classes based on the investors’ judgements of performance and risk. Real estate is selected, as other assets, on the basis of some criteria, e.g. commonly its marginal contribution to the production of a mean variance efficient multi asset portfolio, subject to the investor’s objectives and capital rationing constraints. However, decisions are made relative to current expectations and current business constraints. Whilst a decision maker may believe in the required optimum exposure levels as dictated by an asset allocation model, the final decision may/will be influenced by factors outside the parameters of the mathematical model. This paper discusses investors' perceptions and attitudes toward real estate and highlights the important difference between theoretical exposure levels and pragmatic business considerations. It develops a model to identify “soft” parameters in decision making which will influence the optimal allocation for that asset class. This “soft” information may relate to behavioural issues such as the tendency to mirror competitors; a desire to meet weight of money objectives; a desire to retain the status quo and many other non-financial considerations. The paper aims to establish the place of property in multi asset portfolios in the UK and examine the asset allocation process in practice, with a view to understanding the decision making process and to look at investors’ perceptions based on an historic analysis of market expectation; a comparison with historic data and an analysis of actual performance.