Defining the Resolution of a Network for Transportation Analyses: a New Method to Improve Transportation Planning Decisions

Travel demand models are important tools used in the analysis of transportation plans, projects, and policies. The modeling results are useful for transportation planners making transportation decisions and for policy makers developing transportation policies. Defining the level of detail (i.e., the number of roads) of the transport network in consistency with the travel demand model’s zone system is crucial to the accuracy of modeling results. However, travel demand modelers have not had tools to determine how much detail is needed in a transport network for a travel demand model. This dissertation seeks to fill this knowledge gap by (1) providing methodology to define an appropriate level of detail for a transport network in a given travel demand model; (2) implementing this methodology in a travel demand model in the Baltimore area; and (3) identifying how this methodology improves the modeling accuracy. All analyses identify the spatial resolution of the transport network has great impacts on the modeling results. For example, when compared to the observed traffic data, a very detailed network underestimates traffic congestion in the Baltimore area, while a network developed by this dissertation provides a more accurate modeling result of the traffic conditions. Through the evaluation of the impacts a new transportation project has on both networks, the differences in their analysis results point out the importance of having an appropriate level of network detail for making improved planning decisions. The results corroborate a suggested guideline concerning the development of a transport network in consistency with the travel demand model’s zone system. To conclude this dissertation, limitations are identified in data sources and methodology, based on which a plan of future studies is laid out.

HOLDING DECISIONS FOR CORRELATED VEHICLE ARRIVALS AT INTERMODAL FREIGHT TRANSFER TERMINALS

A vehicle holding method is proposed for mitigating the effect of service disruptions on coordinated intermodal freight operations. Existing studies are extended mainly by (1) modeling correlations among vehicle arrivals and (2) considering decision risks with a mean-standard deviation optimization model. It is shown that the expected value of the total cost in the proposed formulation is not affected by the correlations, while the variance can be miscomputed when arrival correlations are neglected. Some implications of delay propagation are also identified when optimizing vehicle holding decisions in real-time. General criteria are provided for determining the boundary of the affected region and length of the numerical search, based on the frequency of information updates. Theoretical analyses are supported by three numerical examples.

Future consumers’ perceptions of sustainability, and their reflections on buying decisions

The purpose of this quantitative study is to study future consumers’ perception of sustainability in relation to business in general and specifically concerning the forest industry. The aim is to understand, what they feel is important for sustainable business and how the forest industry, in their opinion, is performing in this respect. Further, it aims to study how these perceptions reflect in their buying decisions. The research was conducted by a quantitative survey in two countries, Finland and Hong Kong, in the spring of 2015. All data used in the research is primary. The result indicate that consumers see sustainability issues important today and in the future. Sustainability is seen important both for business in general for the forest industry. The industry is considered sustainable now, but room for improvements exists. The appreciation of sustainability does not reflect to buying decisions, however. The buying of ecological products seems to be more up to chance than to intention. Consumers are not proactive in searching for more ecological or responsible options. Information needs to be taken to them. Ecologicalness as such is still not a strong selling point.

Optimal Budget-Constrained Sample Allocation for Selection Decisions with Multiple Uncertain Attributes

A decision-maker, when faced with a limited and fixed budget to collect data in support of a multiple attribute selection decision, must decide how many samples to observe from each alternative and attribute. This allocation decision is of particular importance when the information gained leads to uncertain estimates of the attribute values as with sample data collected from observations such as measurements, experimental evaluations, or simulation runs. For example, when the U.S. Department of Homeland Security must decide upon a radiation detection system to acquire, a number of performance attributes are of interest and must be measured in order to characterize each of the considered systems. We identified and evaluated several approaches to incorporate the uncertainty in the attribute value estimates into a normative model for a multiple attribute selection decision. Assuming an additive multiple attribute value model, we demonstrated the idea of propagating the attribute value uncertainty and describing the decision values for each alternative as probability distributions. These distributions were used to select an alternative. With the goal of maximizing the probability of correct selection we developed and evaluated, under several different sets of assumptions, procedures to allocate the fixed experimental budget across the multiple attributes and alternatives. Through a series of simulation studies, we compared the performance of these allocation procedures to the simple, but common, allocation procedure that distributed the sample budget equally across the alternatives and attributes. We found the allocation procedures that were developed based on the inclusion of decision-maker knowledge, such as knowledge of the decision model, outperformed those that neglected such information. Beginning with general knowledge of the attribute values provided by Bayesian prior distributions, and updating this knowledge with each observed sample, the sequential allocation procedure performed particularly well. These observations demonstrate that managing projects focused on a selection decision so that the decision modeling and the experimental planning are done jointly, rather than in isolation, can improve the overall selection results.

Empirical studies on share issuance and repurchase decisions

Financial constraints influence corporate policies of firms, including both investment decisions and external financing policies. The relevance of this phenomenon has become more pronounced during and after the recent financial crisis in 2007/2008. In addition to raising costs of external financing, the effects of financial crisis limited the availability of external financing which had implications for employment, investment, sale of assets, and tech spending. This thesis provides a comprehensive analysis of the effects of financial constraints on share issuance and repurchases decisions. Financial constraints comprise both internal constraints reflecting the demand for external financing and external financial constraints that relate to the supply of external financing. The study also examines both operating performance and stock market reactions associated with equity issuance methods. The first empirical chapter explores the simultaneous effects of financial constraints and market timing on share issuance decisions. Internal financing constraints limit firms’ ability to issue overvalued equity. On the other hand, financial crisis and low market liquidity (external financial constraints) restrict availability of equity financing and consequently increase the costs of external financing. Therefore, the study explores the extent to which internal and external financing constraints limit market timing of equity issues. This study finds that financial constraints play a significant role in whether firms time their equity issues when the shares are overvalued. The conclusion is that financially constrained firms issue overvalued equity when the external equity market or the general economic conditions are favourable. During recessionary periods, costs of external finance increase such that financially constrained firms are less likely to issue overvalued equity. Only unconstrained firms are more likely to issue overvalued equity even during crisis. Similarly, small firms that need cash flows to finance growth projects are less likely to access external equity financing during period of significant economic recessions. Moreover, constrained firms have low average stock returns compared to unconstrained firms, especially when they issue overvalued equity. The second chapter examines the operating performance and stock returns associated with equity issuance methods. Firms in the UK can issue equity through rights issues, open offers, and private placement. This study argues that alternative equity issuance methods are associated with a different level of operating performance and long-term stock returns. Firms using private placement are associated with poor operating performance. However, rights issues are found empirically to be associated with higher operating performance and less negative long-term stock returns after issuance in comparison to counterpart firms that issue private placements and open offers. Thus, rights issuing firms perform better than open offers and private placement because the favourable operating performance at the time of issuance generates subsequent positive long-run stock price response. Right issuing firms are of better quality and outperform firms that adopt open offers and private placement. In the third empirical chapter, the study explores the levered share repurchase of internally financially unconstrained firms. Unconstrained firms are expected to repurchase their shares using internal funds rather than through external borrowings. However, evidence shows that levered share repurchases are common among unconstrained firms. These firms display this repurchase behaviour when they have bond ratings or investment grade ratings that allow them to obtain cheap external debt financing. It is found that internally financially unconstrained firms borrow to finance their share repurchase when they invest more. Levered repurchase firms are associated with less positive abnormal returns than unlevered repurchase firms. For the levered repurchase sample, high investing firms are associated with more positive long-run abnormal stock returns than low investing firms. It appears the market underreact to the levered repurchase in the short-run regardless of the level of investments. These findings indicate that market reactions reflect both undervaluation and signaling hypotheses of positive information associated with share repurchase. As the firms undertake capital investments, they generate future cash flows, limit the effects of leverage on financial distress and ultimately reduce the risk of the equity capital.

SEQUENTIAL DECISIONS AND PREDICTIONS IN NATURAL LANGUAGE PROCESSING

Natural language processing has achieved great success in a wide range of ap- plications, producing both commercial language services and open-source language tools. However, most methods take a static or batch approach, assuming that the model has all information it needs and makes a one-time prediction. In this disser- tation, we study dynamic problems where the input comes in a sequence instead of all at once, and the output must be produced while the input is arriving. In these problems, predictions are often made based only on partial information. We see this dynamic setting in many real-time, interactive applications. These problems usually involve a trade-off between the amount of input received (cost) and the quality of the output prediction (accuracy). Therefore, the evaluation considers both objectives (e.g., plotting a Pareto curve). Our goal is to develop a formal understanding of sequential prediction and decision-making problems in natural language processing and to propose efficient solutions. Toward this end, we present meta-algorithms that take an existent batch model and produce a dynamic model to handle sequential inputs and outputs. Webuild our framework upon theories of Markov Decision Process (MDP), which allows learning to trade off competing objectives in a principled way. The main machine learning techniques we use are from imitation learning and reinforcement learning, and we advance current techniques to tackle problems arising in our settings. We evaluate our algorithm on a variety of applications, including dependency parsing, machine translation, and question answering. We show that our approach achieves a better cost-accuracy trade-off than the batch approach and heuristic-based decision- making approaches. We first propose a general framework for cost-sensitive prediction, where dif- ferent parts of the input come at different costs. We formulate a decision-making process that selects pieces of the input sequentially, and the selection is adaptive to each instance. Our approach is evaluated on both standard classification tasks and a structured prediction task (dependency parsing). We show that it achieves similar prediction quality to methods that use all input, while inducing a much smaller cost. Next, we extend the framework to problems where the input is revealed incremen- tally in a fixed order. We study two applications: simultaneous machine translation and quiz bowl (incremental text classification). We discuss challenges in this set- ting and show that adding domain knowledge eases the decision-making problem. A central theme throughout the chapters is an MDP formulation of a challenging problem with sequential input/output and trade-off decisions, accompanied by a learning algorithm that solves the MDP.

Reproductive decisions of couples living with HIV in Malawi: What can we learn for future policy and research studies?

Background The rapid scale-up of free antiretroviral therapy has lead to decline in adult mortality at the population level and reduction of vertical transmission. Consequently, some couples living with HIV are maintaining their reproductive decisions; marrying and having children. This paper analyses policies and guidelines on HIV, AIDS and sexual and reproductive health in Malawi for content on marriage and childbearing for couples living with HIV. Methods A qualitative study using interpretive policy analysis approach was conducted from July to December 2010 in two phases. First, data on access to HIV, AIDS and sexual and reproductive health services were collected using in-depth interviews with twenty couples purposively sampled in matrilineal Chiradzulu and patrilineal Chikhwawa communities. Secondly, data were collected from Malawi policies and guidelines on HIV, AIDS and sexual and reproductive health. The documents were reviewed for content on marriage and childbearing for couples living with HIV. Data were analysed using framework approach for applied policy analysis. Results Four categories emerged from each phase. From the study, we extracted health workers attitudes, weak linkage between HIV, AIDS and sexual and reproductive health services, contradictory messages between media and the hospitals and lack of information as factors directly related to guidelines and policies. Analysis of guidelines and policies showed nonprescriptiveness on issues of HIV, AIDS and reproduction: they do not reflect the social cultural experiences of couples living with HIV. In addition, there is; lack of clinical guidelines, external influence on adoption of the policies and guidelines and weak linkages between HIV and AIDS and sexual and reproductive health services. Conclusion This synthesis along with more detailed findings which are reported in other published articles, provide a strong basis for updating the policies and development of easy-to-follow guidelines in order to effectively provide services to couples living with HIV in Malawi.

Exploring fertility decisions among pregnant HIVpositive women on antiretroviral therapy at a health centre in Balaka, Malawi: A descriptive qualitative

Background The proportions of women of reproductive age living with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) vary between different regions of the world, with significantly higher proportions in sub-Saharan Africa. Family planning is one of the major issues that couples and families affected with HIV must confront. We aimed to assess the cultural and social factors associated with childbearing and family planning knowledge, decisionmaking, and practices among HIV-positive pregnant women attending antenatal clinic at a health centre in Balaka, Malawi. Methods This was a qualitative descriptive study carried out at Kalembo Health Centre in Balaka. A purposive sampling technique was used to select pregnant women enroled in the antiretroviral therapy (ART) programme. A sample size of thirty-five women was decided upon after data saturation. Qualitative inquiry was used during data collection. Data were analysed using systematic text condensation, while numbers and percentages were generated using Microsoft Excel. Results Out of 35 participants, 20 were aged between 25 and 34 years, and 18 had been married at least three times. All 35 women wished to have their own biological child. Factors, reported by participants, that promote childbearing included: the desire to please their husbands, fear of losing their husbands to others if they did not bear children, the knowledge that ART would help prevent their children from acquiring the virus, the desire to prove to others that they can also bear children, and a lack of family planning leading to unplanned pregnancies. Conclusions The factors that lead to pregnancies among women on ART in Balaka ranged from assured safety of the child from HIV, lack of contraception, to other factors related to their partners. The authors recognize and support the freedom for women to become pregnant and bear children, and, in the context of HIV infection, fertility and reproductive services should include a comprehensive approach towards addressing issues of HIV and AIDS and childbearing among infected women.

The Influence of Place Attachment, Aspirations, and Rapidly Changing Environments on Resettlement Decisions

Resettlement associated with development projects results in a variety of negative impacts. This dissertation uses the resettlement context to frame the dynamic relationships formed between peoples and places experiencing development. Two case studies contribute: (a) the border zone of Mozambique’s Limpopo National Park where residents contend with changes to land access and use; and (b) Bairro Chipanga in Moatize, Mozambique where a resettled population struggles to form place attachment and transform the post-resettlement site into a “good” place. Through analysis of data collected at these sites between 2009 and 2015, this dissertation investigates how changing environments impact person-place relationships before and after resettlement occurs. Changing environments create conditions leading to disemplacement—feeling like one no longer belongs—that reduces the environment’s ability to foster place attachment. Research findings indicate that responses taken by individuals living in the changing environment depend heavily upon whether resettlement has already occurred. In a pre-resettlement context, residents adjust their daily lives to diminish the effects of a changing environment and re-create the conditions to which they initially formed an attachment. They accept impoverishing conditions, including a narrowing of the spaces in which they live their daily lives, because it is preferred to the anxiety that accompanies being forced to resettle. In a post-resettlement context, resettlement disrupts the formation of place attachment and resettled peoples become a placeless population. When the resettlement has not resulted in anticipated outcomes, the aspiration for social justice—seeking conditions residents had reason to expect—negatively influences residents’ perspectives about the place. The post-resettlement site becomes a bad place with a future unchanged from the present. At best, this results in a population in which more members are willing to move away from the post-resettlement site, and, at worse, complete disengagement of other members from trying to improve the community. Resettlement thus has the potential to launch a cycle of movement- displacement-movement that prevents an entire generation from establishing place attachment and realizing its benefits. At the very least, resettlement impedes the formation of place attachment to new places. Thus, this dissertation draws attention to the unseen and uncompensated losses of resettlement.

Role of financial and other information in trade credit decisions in SMEs: An international study

Trade credit is an important source of finance for SMEs and this study investigates the use of the financial statements and other information in making trade credit decisions in smaller entities in Finland, the UK, USA and South Africa. The study adds to the literature by examining the information needs of unincorporated entities as a basis for making comparisons with small, unlisted companies. In-depth, semi-structured interviews in each country were used to collect data from the owner-managers of SMEs and from credit rating agencies and credit insurers. The findings provide insights into similarities and differences between countries and between developed and developing economies. The evidence suggests that there are three main influences on the trade credit decision: formal and report-based information, soft information relating to social capital and contingency factors. The latter dictate the extent to which hard/formal information versus soft/informal information is used.

Decisions on investment allocation in the post-keynesian growth model

Neste artigo os modelos de crescimento e alocação de investimento a la Feldman-Mahalanobis são estendidos para considerar a análise de decisões de alocação de investimento no contexto do modelo de crescimento pós-Keynesiano. Ao adotar essa abordagem é possível introduzir características distributivas no modelo de Feldman-Mahalanobis que nos permitem determinar a taxa de alocação de investimentos de acordo com as decisões de equilíbrio entre investimento e poupança. Finalmente, uma condição adicional é adicionada ao modelo de crescimento pós-keynesiano, a fim de caracterizar plenamente o caminho de equilíbrio em uma versão estendida deste, onde bens de capital também são necessários para produzir bens de capital. _________________________________________________________________________________ ABSTRACT

Influence of pharmacists expertise on physicians prescription decisions

Purpose: To explore the influence of pharmacist factors on prescription decisions of physicians. Methods: A survey of literature was carried out across online databases and 12 relevant articles were identified. The influence of pharmacist factors on physician prescription decisions was identified in the articles. A conceptual model for investigating pharmacist factors that influence physicians’ prescription decisions was then developed. Results: The main factors identified were pharmacist expertise, pharmacist – physician collaboration, and trust between physician and pharmacist. There was no direct evidence of influence of pharmacist expertise on prescription, but some studies indicated that pharmacist recommendation is in tandem with the prescribing behaviour of physicians. One study reported that pharmacist–physician collaboration positively influenced physicians’ prescribing decision, while others found no relationship between these. Conclusion: Existing literature on the influence of pharmacist factors on prescription behaviour of physicians are limited and debatable. There is no consistency in these studies. Moreover, studies that reported a strong connection between the trustworthiness and pharmacist–physician collaboration in drug prescription lack hard evidence.

The Impact of the "Not Sure" Option on Lineup Identification Decisions

Law enforcement officials routinely rely on eyewitness identification evidence to solve crimes. Nonetheless, this form of evidence is prone to errors. Researchers have previously attempted to examine conditions under which such errors can be reduced. The present study examines whether giving witnesses an explicit not sure response option increases the accuracy of lineup identification decisions. 251 participants watched a mock crime video before viewing a lineup that either included the perpetrator, or was made up of innocent suspects. Results indicated that witnesses provided with a not sure option made fewer false identifications, fewer filler identifications, and a similar number of correct identifications as witnesses who were not provided with this option. Furthermore, these benefits occurred regardless of whether witnesses received otherwise biased or unbiased instructions. Results suggest that the inclusion of an explicit not sure response option is a simple procedure that can increase the quality of eyewitness lineup decisions.

Disentangling patient and public involvement in healthcare decisions:why the difference matters

Patient and public involvement has become an integral aspect of many developed health systems and is judged to be an essential driver for reform. However, little attention has been paid to the distinctions between patients and the public, and the views of patients are often seen to encompass those of the general public. Using an ideal-type approach, we analyse crucial distinctions between patient involvement and public involvement using examples from Sweden and England. We highlight that patients have sectional interests as health service users in contrast to citizens who engage as a public policy agent reflecting societal interests. Patients draw on experiential knowledge and focus on output legitimacy and performance accountability, aim at typical representativeness, and a direct responsiveness to individual needs and preferences. In contrast, the public contributes with collective perspectives generated from diversity, centres on input legitimacy achieved through statistical representativeness, democratic accountability and indirect responsiveness to general citizen preferences. Thus, using patients as proxies for the public fails to achieve intended goals and benefits of involvement. We conclude that understanding and measuring the impact of patient and public involvement can only develop with the application of a clearer comprehension of the differences.